For the last three weeks I’ve had an article sitting in my queue called “The Enigma of Lucas Giolito.” He’s made five starts for the Chicago White Sox since being promoted on August 22nd and has performed well, posting a 2.56 ERA in 31.2 innings with a 26/11 K/BB and only 19 hits allowed. As you likely remember his best game was on September 3rd against the Tampa Bay Rays, when he fanned 10 while walking just one and giving up three hits in seven innings.
Several people have asked me lately if Giolito has turned the corner. He’s over 50 major league innings now, which means it is time to kick him off prospect lists, so a final summary article seemed like a fine idea.
However, after each of his starts I’d sit down to write the article but got nowhere, running into a good case of writer’s block. . .well, “prospect analyst block” is probably more accurate.
As with any other prospect, the method is to read scouting reports, watch video, study the numbers, gather the opinions of other informed observers, then make an assessment. The problem was I kept finding myself wanting to see “just one more start” before making the assessment.
I realized this morning that for the rest of September, that pattern is going to hold: just one more start. But even if he throws bullets the rest of the month, will we really know more than we do already? Probably not.
If I had to put money down, I’d say that Giolito will turn out something like Homer Bailey, a solid pitcher with moments of brilliance who never quite becomes the big ace everyone expected.
Straight-up prospect reports are getting a bit stale so let’s throw this open for community discussion.
TRUE OR FALSE: Lucas Giolito will have a similar career to Homer Bailey.