The 90 pitchers listed a bit further down finished their 2017 minor league campaign at least a standard deviation above their league(s)'s average overall performance for a starting pitcher per my Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) statistical evaluation system, while facing at least 300 batters and averaging at least 15 batters faced per game and logging at least some time in a full-season league. This FanPost will follow a similar tack as the corresponding FanPost from last offseason did.
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Methods
Each nonbunt, non-pitcher-batting plate appearance is sorted into 1 of the following 12 categories, and the pitcher is charged with the league's typical 2017 runs value for said event.
1. BB or HBP, 2. K, 3. IFFB, 4. GB to pull-third, 5. GB to center-third, ..., 7. LD to pull-third, ..., 12. OFFB to oppo-third
Each pitcher's final runs per plate appearance value is compared to the league peer group's mean and standard deviation for that parameter to obtain their Overall Rating. A Batted Ball Rating is determined similarly after omitting all BB+HBP or K events (individual components of the Batted Ball Rating are also computed such as GB Rating, IFFB Rating, etc., using GB per batted ball, IFFB per batted ball, ... to better understand how the Batted Ball Rating was attained and assess its sustainability). A Control (CTL) Rating (using BB+HBP per PA) and Strikeout (K) Rating (using K per PA) are also determined. A Youth Rating is determined by comparing the pitcher's age relative to the mean and standard deviation for SPs in their league. The Overall Rating will also be presented when limited to how each pitcher rated against opposite-handed batters (OHB, LHB for a RHP and RHB for a LHP) and against same-handed batters (SHB).
Each rating will be expressed on a 100 to 0 scale where the number indicates the expected percentage of league peers beaten on the stat. 50 denotes league-average, with 84 being one standard deviation above league-average ("plus", indicated by a green number in tables), 97 being two standard deviations above league-average ("plus plus"), 16 being one standard deviation below league-average ("minus", red number in tables), and 3 being two standard deviations below league-average ("minus minus"). Asterisks denote southpaws.
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Results
The 90 MiLB SP Who Achieved a Plus or Higher Overall Rating
Tyler Glasnow took top honors and did so while posting a batted ball profile that was very different from his IFFB/OFFB-heavy ones of seasons past; Glasnow continues to struggle in the majors though and could only muster a 13 Overall Rating against the 305 MLB batters he faced in 2017. Runner-up Luke Weaver has found the majors not nearly so challenging as he recorded a 95 Overall Rating against 252 MLB batters in 2017. Journeyman Nik Turley whiffed MiLB batters at extreme rates (especially in AA) after signing with Minnesota as a minor league free agent, but could only muster a 1 Overall Rating and 4 K Rating versus 89 batters in a late-season MLB debut with the Twins; Turley is now 40-man-rostered with the Pirates after a November waiver claim.
These 23 plus plus or thereabouts to better performers features six returnees from the 2016 list of MiLB SP who were plus or better on Overall Rating (and faced 300+ batters and 15+ batters per game): Glasnow, Weaver, Triston McKenzie, Daniel Gossett, Artie Lewicki, and Stephen Gonsalves. The top 23 also included 6 2016 draftees: Forrest Whitley, Michael Rucker, Joey Lucchesi, Tyler Wells, A.J. Puk, and Jon Duplantier.
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The next table of number 24 through 46 overall performers features six returnees from the 2016 list including Luiz Gohara, Brent Honeywell, Ronald Herrera, Jordan Humphreys, Domingo Acevedo, and Mitch Keller. Among 2016 draftees to make this 2017 table were Corbin Burnes, Taylor Widener, Alec Hansen (that is a rather sketchy OFFB-heavy batted ball profile for a fairly mature RHSP prospect), Brett Adcock, Dane Dunning, Brandon Bailey, and Joey Wentz.
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Numbers 47 through 68 below includes 2016 list returnees Luis Castillo (who posted an impressive 98 Overall Rating in MLB play) and Josh Rogers, plus five 2016 draftees: Logan Shore, Keegan Akin, Aaron Civale, Brian Keller, and JoJo Romero.
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The final table of numbers 69 through 90 includes one 2016 list returnee in Steven Brault and two 2016 draftees in Robert Dugger and Shaun Anderson (who joins 2016 University of Florida teammates A.J. Puk, Dane Dunning, and Logan Shore on the full list of 90).
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The 19 Pitchers Who Were Also Plus or Better on Youth Rating
Top dog Luke Weaver was but 1 Youth Rating point away from making this exclusive club in 2016. The four repeat members from 2016 are Triston McKenzie, Luiz Gohara, Brent Honeywell, and Mitch Keller. While Alex Wells did not make the table a year ago, his twin brother Lachlan Wells did. The three 2016 draftees who joined the club in 2017 are Forrest Whitley, Joey Wentz, and JoJo Romero.
The extreme K/IFFB/OFFB profile and reverse performance splits of 2017 have Lucas Sims projecting as a power relief option at the MLB level. The FaBIO scorecard of Ljay Newsome is too control-heavy at present; he will need to develop a better offspeed arsenal (to improve his K Rating) and diversity his fastball repertoire (to dilute the extreme OFFB bias) over the next few seasons to be viewed as a viable MLB SP prospect. Likewise southpaws Wells and Brock Burke will have to improve their out-generation skills (K ability and batted ball profile) over the next few seasons to be taken more seriously as MLB SP prospects. While Zack Littell does not possess an overly dominant performance skill, he rates rather well on just about everything and that has him nicely positioned as a back-of-rotation MLB SP candidate.
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Sorting the 90 Pitchers By Final 2017 MiLB Organization
As was true a year ago, the Yankees led the way and this time they employed 8.94 of the 90 pitchers (the decimal places reflect partial season credit for traded players). The Athletics ranked second with 7 pitchers. The Astros and Pirates each placed 6 pitchers. The Braves and Rays placed 5 each.
NYY (8.94): Taylor Widener, Ronald Herrera (now TEX), Domingo Acevedo, Domingo German, Josh Rogers*, Justus Sheffield*, Brian Keller, 0.70 x Zack Littell (now MIN), Caleb Smith* (now MIA), 0.24 x Kolton Mahoney (now MIA)
OAK (7): Daniel Gossett, A.J. Puk*, Brandon Bailey (now HOU), Logan Shore, Chris Smith (now Free Agent), Zack Erwin*, Paul Blackburn
HOU (6): Forrest Whitley, Rogelio Armenteros, Elieser Hernandez (now MIA, via MLB Rule 5), Brett Adcock*, Yoanys Quiala, Patrick Sandoval*
PIT (6): Tyler Glasnow, Mitch Keller, Austin Coley, Tanner Anderson, Taylor Hearn*, Steven Brault*
ATL (5): Luiz Gohara*, Andrew Albers* (now Japan), Joey Wentz*, Lucas Sims, Wes Parsons
TB (5): Brent Honeywell, Yonny Chirinos, Travis Ott*, Ryan Yarbrough*, Brock Burke*
CIN (4): Tyler Mahle, Luis Castillo, Deck McGuire (now TOR), Jose Lopez
STL (3.85): Luke Weaver, John Gant, Jack Flaherty, 0.85 x Marco Gonzales* (now SEA)
CHW (3.45): 0.45 x Dylan Cease, Alec Hansen, Michael Kopech, Dane Dunning
MIN (3.30): Nik Turley* (now PIT), Tyler Wells, Stephen Gonsalves*, 0.30 x Zack Littell
SEA (3.19): Ljay Newsome, Sam Gaviglio (now KC), Robert Dugger (now MIA), 0.04 x Seth Frankoff, 0.15 x Marco Gonzales*
DET (3.04): Artie Lewicki, Alfred Gutierrez, 0.04 x Grayson Long, Anthony Castro
BAL (3): Lucas Long, Keegan Akin*, Alex Wells*
PHI (3): Nick Fanti*, Ranger Suarez*, JoJo Romero*
MIL (2.97): Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, 0.97 x Paolo Espino (now TEX)
BOS (2.80): Jalen Beeks*, Daniel Gonzalez, 0.80 x Shaun Anderson (now SF)
MIA (2.76): Trevor Richards, Mike Kickham* (now Free Agent), 0.76 x Kolton Mahoney
CLE (2.70): Triston McKenzie, 0.70 x Thomas Pannone* (now TOR), Aaron Civale
CHC (2.51): Michael Rucker, 0.55 x Dylan Cease (now CHW), 0.96 x Seth Frankoff (now SEA)
TEX (2.03): Kyle Cody, Anthony Bass (now Free Agent), 0.03 x Paolo Espino
LAD (2): Wilmer Font, Scott Barlow (now KC)
NYM (2): Jordan Humphreys, Corey Oswalt
SD (2): Joey Lucchesi*, Pedro Avila
TOR (1.30): 0.30 x Thomas Pannone*, Ryan Borucki*
ARI (1): Jon Duplantier
LAA (0.96): 0.96 x Grayson Long (now DET)
SF (0.20): 0.20 x Shaun Anderson
COL (0), KC (0), WAS (0)
The Rockies, Royals, and Nationals failed to register a single pitcher on the list.
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Bonus Content: FaBIO Profiles of the Typical 2017 Full-Season MiLB SP of Each Organization
This exercise involves combining the FaBIO ratings of every full-season "starterish"-workload pitcher in the same organization to arrive at a typical SP profile for that organization's 2017 full-season affiliates. Beyond identifying organizational developmental biases, the results reflect some combination of how much SP talent the given organization has on hand at these levels and how well the organization elicits performance out of its SP talent. Each rating is again expressed on a percentile basis, with the 2017 rank among all 30 organizations at the relevant rating included in parentheses. At the far right of the table that shortly follows, one can spot and compare the 2016 and 2015 Overall Ratings (and Ranks) for full-season SP of each organization.
The Yankees dominated at these performance metrics during 2017 with their typical full-season SP rating at the 76th percentile on Overall Rating, all while also taking top honors at K Rating and Batted Ball (Profile) Rating, and this on the heels of a 2016 where they also placed 1st overall by a wide margin. The Astros placed 2nd on Overall Rating and at each of K Rating and Batted Ball Rating. The big organizational risers on Overall Rating versus 2016 were the Braves (up 23 spots to 4th), Padres (up 19 spots to 10th), Marlins (up 12 spots to 14th), Tigers (up 10 spots to 3rd), and Pirates (up 10 spots to 8th). In the cases of the Braves and Padres, it does appear that organizational starting pitcher performance has now caught up with the accumulated depth of talent. Phillies SP were the youngest relative to league standards per Youth Rating and ranked 7th on Overall Rating.
Large fallers on Overall Rating from 2016 include the Giants (7th to 26th), Mariners (3rd to 16th), Nationals (17th to 30th), and Blue Jays (12th to 24th). The most GB-biased SP organizations of 2017 were the Cubs (71 GB Rating) and Pirates (66 GB Rating). The most OFFB-skewed SP were the Royals (32 OFFB Avoid Rating), Mariners (33 OFFB Avoid Rating), and Rays (35 OFFB Avoid Rating).
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Exit Poll: 2017 FaBIO MiLB Starting Pitcher of the Year
The FaBIO overlords have narrowed the candidates down to this dozen taking into consideration batters faced, professional experience, level of competition, Overall Rating, strikeouts, batted ball profiles, control, and so on.
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