Gary Sanchez 2017: Projections vs. reality

We have two more community projections to review: Maikel Franco of the Philadelphia Phillies (coming up later this afternoon) and Gary Sanchez of the New York Yankees.

The community projection was posted March 14th, 2017. The results were 126 games, 497 at-bats, 61 runs, 132 hits, 28 doubles, 1 triple, 26 homers, 49 walks, 131 strikeouts, 2 steals, 2 caught stealing, 4 HBP, slash line .265/.336/.483, OPS .819.

The real life results were 122 games, 471 at-bats, 79 runs, 131 hits, 20 doubles, 0 triples, 33 homers, 40 walks, 120 strikeouts, 2 steals, 1 caught stealing, 10 HBP, slash line .278/.345/.531, OPS .876.

By way of comparison, formal projection systems give the following results:

Steamer: .268/.329/.491, 27 homers in 472 at-bats, 40 walks, 101 strikeouts, .820 OPS.

ZIPS: .255/.313/.490, 27 homers in 455 at-bats, 36 walks, 117 strikeouts .803 OPS.

PECOTA: .261/.324/.482, 29 homers in 533 at-bats, 46 walks, 135 strikeouts .806 OPS.

The community and the sophisticated system projections were all rather similar. Everyone understated both his batting average and his power a bit, although his strike zone judgment was about as expected. The community and Steamer were the most optimistic overall and thus the closest to being correct.