clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Andrew Benintendi 2017, projections vs. reality

New, 2 comments

Who won the prediction game?

MLB: Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

The 2017 MLB season is almost over so it is time to review how things looked at the beginning of the season and compare them to what really happened. We’ll start by reviewing the Community Projection for Andrew Benintendi of the Boston Red Sox.

The Community Projection was posted on March 10th. The community foresaw 141 games, 523 at-bats, 86 runs, 151 hits, 32 doubles, 5 triples, 15 homers, 51 walks, 87 strikeouts, 14 steals, 5 caught, 3 HBP, slash line: .291/.358/.456, .814 OPS.

With four games left in the regular season, the actual results are 148 games, 561 at-bats, 83 runs, 154 hits, 26 doubles, 1 triple, 20 homers, 70 walks, 108 strikeouts, 19 steals, 5 caught, 6 HBP, slash line .275/.357/.431, .788 OPS.

We weren’t too far off really, although the projected batting average was too high. Benintendi stuck out more than expected but also walked more than expected. We nailed OBP. That said, the more sophisticated projection systems got closer than the community did with the batting average and SLG.

ZIPS foresaw .278/.341/.446, .787 OPS, Steamer projected .282/.338/.439, .777 OPS, and PECOTA augured .275/.339/.446, .785 OPS. ZIPS and PECOTA were the winners on OPS, with Steamer too pessimistic and the community too optimistic.