MOD Cardinals #1

by backtocali on May 7, 2025 10:26 PM EDT

This will be my 4th consecutive season as a MiLB Mock Draft SD. The previous 3 were as the Brewer SD, where I made the following drafts:

http://www.brewcrewball.com/2011/6/6/2209009/sickels-mock-draft-recap

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/6/5/1503132/community-mock-draft-commentary-nl

http://www.brewcrewball.com/2009/6/6/901151/mock-draft-brewer-selections

This year the Cards have the 19th pick in the first round as a result of losing Albert Pujols to the Angels, the 23rd pick in the first round, a supplemental first round pick, and then the 23rd pick in both the 2nd and 3rd rounds. IN all they will have the 19th pick, the 23rd pick, the 36th pick, the 52nd pick, the 59th pick, 86th pick and 117th pick.

The system is right now a top 10 system in the game, and given the fact that they are odds on favorites to win the NL Central this year, seven picks in the top 125 picks should make the rest of the division play for 2nd place for the next 7 to 8 years, let alone the rest of the league wonder how many games they will lose to the Cards on their pennant steamroll. They have the makings of a dynasty with the current talent on the field, current farm system, and bounty of picks in this years draft.

The Cardinals love to take projectable HS arms, and safe college bats. This year's draft will offer plenty of both for them to draft.

The new CBA shouldnt affect the Cardinals all that much in that they are not very big spenders on draft day, and even if they were, the market and ownership group most likely will not have an aversion to paying an over cap tax for signing high quality draft talent, as they can afford it.

This is a list of players I would consider taking in the Mock for the Cardinals:

Stephen Piscotty, 3B, Stanford

Tyler Naquin, RF, Texas A & M

Ty Hensley, RHP, Oklahoma HS

Peter O'Brien, C, Miami

Hunter Virant, LHP, California HS

Adam Brett Walker, 1B, Jacksonville

Mitchell Traver, RHP, Texas HS

Stephen Johnson, RHP, Texas D2 school

Jameis Winston, CF, Alabama HS

Would love to hear what Cardinal fans and draft fans think is the best course of action to take in this draft.

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Comments

I’m a huge Cardinal fan so I will be involved in this thread quite a bit.

Little underwhelmed with the list of players you are looking at would hope that you open it up a bit to the possibilities.

The Cardinals have the rep of taking fast moving college pitchers but I don’t think that will happen this year. The system is stacked with pitching prospects and in the short term we are very strong in the rotation at the MLB level. No need for a fast moving college pitcher.

Mo really hit it on the head with Wong last year and has mentioned that this draft may be used to sure up the SS position. Personally I wouldn’t do that but I’m not the GM. I think Mo goes after Marrero if he’s available at 19. If not Fontana could be a choice with one of the supplemental picks.

The Cards have wanted a good lefty starter for awhile. Many close to the Cardinals had them taking Owens or Norris last year but the price and fit with Wong was just too strong.

I can see Naquin being taken at 23 for slot or slightly under in order for the team to go a little over slot with 19 or a supplemental pick.

The Cardinals like Hensley and Mo is going to see Traverisco soon.

Personally I love Virant as a prospect as well as Smoral. Piscotty doesn’t make much sense with Freese and then Cox waiting in the wings if he’s not traded off.

O’Brien seems to be a fast moving guy and that’s not really needed with Molina’s long term contract. I think it may be more likely they draft Trahan and bring him along very slow instead.

by scadder21 on May 7, 2025 10:49 PM EDT reply actions

Mo also worked to get some toolsy OF last year during the draft taking Tilson, McElroy, Martini and Jefferies. Power is pretty weak in the system so if they can find a toolsy OF with power potential that kills 2 birds with a Victor Roache or Courtney Hawkins.

If we are also piocking in the supplemental rounds Nick Williams would be too hard to pass up at 36 if he’s still available.

Taveras may not stick in CF.

by scadder21 on May 7, 2025 10:53 PM EDT reply actions

I like Hawkins

And if I were the actual one making the Cards pick would go with him, but do you think they pull the trigger on a pick like him if a guy like Piscotty or Naquin are around who will arrive quicker? Piscotty could be chosen as a long term first baseman.

I also like Heaney for the 23rd pick, and I also like Lance McCullers Jr for the Cards as well as Addison Russell.

I do not believe that Roache or Marrero will be available for them though. One pipe dream pick that, if available, I would move heaven and earth to get would be Michael Wacha. But the only way he falls is if he gets hurt or if he has outrageous bonus demands (which he wont). My guess is that in real life he goes to the Cubs.

by backtocali on May 7, 2025 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m not sold on Piscotty at all. I also feel that Matt Adams is for real at 1st base.

Naquin I like but seems to be a tweener with not enough power for RF. Holliday is in LF long term. They spent 1.3 mil on Tilson who I think is a sure bet to at least be good enough to play CF. That said they may rather have Taveras stick in CF.

Essentially, unless Morerro or maybe Cecchini aren’t available at 19, they won’t draft a fast mover as key positions are pretty well sewn up for the next 3/4 years.

The following won’t be going anywhere anytime soon and won’t be replaced by a fast mover. Holliday, Molina, Wong, Freese.

Craig takes over in RF when Beltran leaves in 2 years. I don’t think anyone will keep Taveras from playing so either CF or RF will be taken for hte next 6 years.

I think this will be one of the few years that the Cardinals can truly draft a high upside guy and be willing to take their time with them.

Have had great success with HS arms recently, lets balance up the system with some positional talent or Trahan.

I may be looking at different Mocks but some have Roache falling a lot because of hte injury.

I see McCullers as being a Carlos Martinez type guy.

by scadder21 on May 7, 2025 11:25 PM EDT reply actions

college pitchers

This is why we don’t need a fast moving college pitcher, unless its Heaney.

Garcia is signed long term. I believe we will do whatever necessary to sign Wainwright/he doesn’t seem like the type that will just go to the highest bidder.
Lynn is currenly proving that he’s good enough to at least be a good 4 or 5 starting pitcher.
You also have Miller/Rosenthal/Jenkins/Martinez/Kelly/Gast for the last 2 spots.

Not all will workout but I think at least 2 will. There simply aren’t enough spots available for a mid rotation college guy that moves fast.

by scadder21 on May 7, 2025 11:37 PM EDT reply actions

Can never have too much pitching though

Its how those late 90’s early 00 Braves teams were built. Heck its how the Cards wound up with Wainwright.

With a system like the one the Cards currently have, they may be looking at fast moving guys to use as trade bait for pennant runs.

by backtocali on May 7, 2025 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree a few of our pitchers may be used as trade bait. I just see this as an opportunity for the Mo to balance out the system and add some much needed offensive power.

I think the key trade pieces in our system right now are Zach Cox if he starts hitting again, Carlos Martinez is they feel he can’t stick as a starter and we get a premiere player in return.

What we don’t have in our system is a starting catcher after Molina retires. Stanley MIGHT be a guy but I don’t see him being more than a backup long term.

I agree iwth you on stockpiling pitching but in a time like this you stockpile upside pitching not safe pitching. I think this is the year that we finally get a big time lefty pitching prospect.

by scadder21 on May 7, 2025 11:44 PM EDT reply actions

Backtocali-

Do you have Trahan as a serious possibility at 19? After moving Luis Perez off catcher(someone Luhnow was gushing over last year) we really don’t have a replacement for Molina in a system. In a year with so many picks taking someone to move along slow and really teach how to be a catcher seems like a smart move.

by scadder21 on May 8, 2025 12:15 PM EDT reply actions

You've obviously done your homework and I don't wish to question your reasoning

But as a Cardinal fan I’d be surprised if they went with a guy like Piscotty. The only low ceiling, fast mover position I wouldn’t be surprised to see would be shortstop, because the Cardinals have very few potential impact middle infielders outside Wong. Even then I’m not sure they’d go after a guy like Marerro because they already have Ryan Jackson to be their all glove, light hitting SS if they decide to go that way.

I would caution you not to over think the Cardinals last few drafts. It was only a few years ago that they were known for taking college pitchers. Then they had success with Miller and Jenkins and now they’re known for taking high ceiling high school arms. Keep in mind that both Cox and Miller were potential top 10 picks who slid due to signability concerns. I’m not sure they are evidence of any Cardinals drafting strategy other than going after the best guy on the board and stomaching the price tag. Wong obviously seemed like a case of drafting for need, because the Cardinals had no good middle infielders. Even then, they followed the safe college bat with two toolsy high school bats.

As you said the system is pretty stocked right now. There are already very good players like Allen Craig and Matt Carpenter fighting for playing time at the big league level and plenty of talent in the pipes. My bet is that the Cardinals go with tools this draft because they can afford to stomach some busts. I’d be guessing guys like Roache, Trahan or Gallo are likely. Still, I doubt the Cards could pass up a decent SS, even if the upside is low, so if Marerro or Cechinni are around I imagine the Cards pull the trigger on them.

by jibbers on May 8, 2025 12:35 PM EDT via iPhone app reply actions

Trahan

If he were available I definitely would consider him. But I dont know if he will be available.

I guess my thought would be that O’Brien will probably be available for one of the sandwhich round picks, And he is probably due at least 3 years of minor league time, and can be a back up for 2 more under Molina.

I think the overall philosophy will be to go with best player available. And at this time, I am focusing keenly on Courtney Hawkins for that With Naquin and Heaney the 2nd and 3rd choices.

As a side note, as nice of a player as Craig and Carpenter seem to be so far, they arent really the type that would block a top notch prospect.

by backtocali on May 8, 2025 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Craig blocks a Top Prospect. Craig can flat out hit and would be a starting player in most other circumstances. Most don’t realize how good Craig is.

by scadder21 on May 8, 2025 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Right

They definitely wouldn’t block a top notch prospect. They would, however, block a Zack Cox type. A fast moving, low ceiling college guy doesn’t have a ton of value on the Cardinals (except at SS) with a number of strong players already blocked at the major league level. This is why I think they’ll shoot for the boom or bust type guys.

by jibbers on May 8, 2025 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I pretty much agree. Although a lot of the college pitcher thing was Luhnow being instructed to first refill the farm system that was completely gutted under Jocketty. Once the farm was respectable again they could start taking some chances on risks.

by scadder21 on May 8, 2025 12:49 PM EDT reply actions

I’ve done a bit of draft research and know the Cardinals pretty well. Since 1989, the Cardinals have selected 40 first round and supplemental players; 26 have been college players and 14 have been high schoolers.

C - 2 (1 C, 1 HS)
1B - 1 (HS)
2B - 1 ©
3B - 5 (3 C, 2 HS)
SS - 5 (2 C, 3 HS)
OF - 2 (1 C, 1 HS)
LHP - 3 ©
RHP - 21 (15 C, 6 HS)

During the Luhnow era, they signed 329 of 359 selected. 243 were College, 71 HS, and 15 Jr College. A large percentage were pitchers, but I don’t have actual breakdown of positions. 27 reached the majors (most in this time frame).

I figure they’ll have the same strategy this year, unless budget plays a bigger concern with the signing cap. In my most recent mock, I had them taking the following players:
1.19 - Deven Marrero, SS, Arizona State
1.23 - Hunter Virant, LHP, CA HS
1.36 - Chris Stratton, RHP, Mississippi State
1.52 - Ty Buttery, RHP, NC HS
1.59 - Clint Coulter, C, WA HS
2.86 - Pierce Johnson, RHP, Missouri State

They have a recent history with ASU players and SS is a positional need for the organization (even though most teams don’t draft for need). Stratton might seem like a stretch, but he’ll be either a slot or below slot signee. Coulter and Johnson are both gut picks.

I agree that they won’t go for Piscotty, but I also don’t think he’ll be there. I have Oakland selecting him.

by wolverine0712 on May 8, 2025 1:59 PM EDT reply actions

Pretty good Mock, I do think they pick Marrero if he’s there although I hope he’s not. Not much power at the top of that draft board. I think they recognize the severe lack of power in the system now. They often find a weakness in the system and then just draft a bunch of those type of players in the next draft. Last year was speedy outfielders. The year before was left handed pitching.

Love the Virant pick.

by scadder21 on May 8, 2025 5:31 PM EDT reply actions

Upside?

Has anyone looked at Nick Williams (3B/OF) for the 23rd pick. He seems to slot perfectly into the 28-32 range, but I don’t think he’ll fall to 36.

I like the pick of Virant as well, I think he’s a good high-upside lefty that could be a nice pick in the middle of the 1st. As for the picks in the 50s, I’ve heard Pierce Johnson (the one mocked to pick 86 above) as a target there, which I personally like.

Being honest, I don’t have as deep of knowledge as most here of the prospects in the draft, so I’m learning as I go (I joined the site 2 days ago), so please excuse all excessively stupid comments by me. I’m starting to get a grasp of the first round, but after that I’m shady at best.

It’ll be a fun few weeks here, for sure.

by kicker31 on May 8, 2025 8:05 PM EDT reply actions

Williams

like Jibbers mentions above, he is the type of guy the Cards might actually go for…tons of tools that need some refinement, very athletic, a boom or bust type of player. I think that he would be a solid choice at 36, but at 23 you can get a guy with the same sort of tools and upside like Trey Williams, along with a lot more refinement in ability and skill.

I personally scouted Johnson over a 2 year span, and his injury raises a lot of questions in my head. He had nice stuff, but my guess is that he will fall into the 2nd round perhaps. There is a chance that if he were available still with one of those late 50s picks, they could take the risk there on him.

by backtocali on May 8, 2025 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Nick Williams surely has the talent to go 23rd. He seems to be the type of guy that the magazines and prospect guys can have falling but a team is ready to a chance on his talent and draft him higher than expected.

Less than 2 years ago many thought he would be 1 overall this year. Apparently he is still very raw and isn’t doing as well as others. I’d take him at 23rd assuming we have someone else with upside at 19.

by scadder21 on May 8, 2025 9:17 PM EDT reply actions

Cards Options

Guess I will throw my 2 cents in the mix. To be fair the Cards draft over the past 3-5 years have evolved quite a bit which has put their farm in the system it is today. Looking at 2012 you have to analyze where the Cards System is as a whole. This is the deepest I can ever remember our system being so I don’t think we need to emphasize many picks on fast movers as we have the luxury to wait for a higher upside guy to develop. With the volume of early picks you can bet they go with a mix of HS and College guys to mix high risk/reward with high floor type guys. Here is a list of guys that seems to make sense in the 1st…all depends on who is still around as well. I am not going to focus on guys that are consensus Top 10-12 picks as it would take a miracle for those guys to fall…though its possible and seems to happen every year:

1) Marcus Stroman - RHP - Duke - His stuff far outweighs his stature. Some question if he can stick as a starter but his stuff is too good not to believe in him. Big fan

2) Courtney Hawkins - OF - HS - Ton of upside on D and with the bat. Read reports over the last few weeks that indicates he is making more progress with his hitting approach as well.

3) Albert Amora - OF - HS - Very talented CF that has a silky smooth swing. Sky is the limit with this kid. Highly unlikely he is around in the upper teens picks.

4) Michael Wacha - RHP - Texas A&M - Seems to be a guy that will go before we pick but fits the profile of a strong college pitcher with limited additional upside. High floor.

5) Gavin Cecchini - SS - HS - Highly likely he stays at SS and is a very good fielder…solid bat to go with it. SS prospects are always hard to find with some upside.

6) Addison Russell - SS - HS - Iffy whether his body will allow him to stay at SS long term but strong offensive upside with some pop. Probably ends up at 3B.

7) Stryker Trahan - C - HS - Hard to shy away from upside C in the draft. His stock is falling a little as reports on him appears his D and receiving skills are further behind than anticipated. Still the talent is there.

8) Andrew Heaney - LHP - OSU - Solid lefties are always sought after early in the draft. He has 3 above avg pitches with impeccable command.

9) Nick Williams - OF - HS - Another upside OF that has power and speed. Potential to be an all-star caliber OF but is raw and will need plenty of time.

10) Lucas Sims - RHP - HS - Very attractive power HS arm with at least 2 other above avg or better pitches. Sign me up!

Out of all the options I feel Russell, Stroman, Sims and Williams are atop my list of candidates with our 1st Rd picks.

Redbird Dugout
http://www.redbirddugout.com

by JDizzidy on May 8, 2025 11:10 PM EDT reply actions

Trahan Trahan Trahan Trahan

STRYKER

2015 St. Louis Rotation-- Wainwright, Garcia, Miller, Martinez, Rosenthal...towels please

by VolsnCards5 on May 9, 2025 9:55 AM EDT reply actions

Ultimately...

The Cardinals will have to sign a few easy sign college guys if it wants to save money to go after a few over slot guys. I see them maybe doing that at 23 and 36. I can see them going for O’Brien, Jankoski, Stratton or Roache at 36,

I can also see them attempting to get Nick Williams and Rio Ruiz if they fall out of the first.

At 52 we could either save some money if we didn’t in the first 3 picks with James Ramsey or Nolan Fontana. Or we can take a shot at a toolsy athletic pitcher like Duane Underwood.

by scadder21 on May 11, 2025 3:47 AM EDT reply actions