Is Giolito still a top 3 pick...?
by hotshotschamp on Mar 13, 2026 2:29 AM EDT
Email
PrintUCL tear.
Sounds like he won't need Tommy John, although never know down the future he might, although it seems common place these days.
Is there too much potential here, to pass on in the top 3?
How do you think major league teams and Giolitos camp will play this? I know he has a strong commitment to UCLA, and has no problem going there. However, on the flip side would a pro team spend 5 mill + for a guy coming off an injury. I think they have seen enough game tape and know enough about his make up they would.
What say you?
81 comments
|
Add comment
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
It will depend on team docs signing off
on the injury. I’m not sure if I want him to last until six when Theo picks for the Cubs.
But it will be the medical staff playing an important role.
10-25-2011. Theo Epstein joins the Cubs. Now, the fun begins.
by timh815 on Mar 13, 2026 3:42 AM EDT reply actions
he should go outside top 10 overall now IMO....
11-21…in round 1
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Mar 13, 2026 4:07 AM EDT reply actions
I just think it would be a foolish organizational decision to invest that much in a guy
when at some point he’s probably certainly going to need to go under the knife….
when its always going to be in the back of Lucas’ mind and the team that drafts him’s mind as well….
would you really take him with a top 5 or 6 pick ?
If i was the Cubs i wouldn’t touch him, When Kyle Zimmer or Beck may be there, i’d go with a guy with considerable less upside but is 100% healthy over a hugh risk, IMO like Giolito……
I said a month ago, i wish he’d just be more willing to show solid 93-95 + MPH with solid command than trying to blow everbody away with fastballs and power curve at 98-100 MPH…..its just silly imo , now he’s having obvious arm trouble….go figure, i feel terrible for him and the whole situation but he should just go to UCLA now… unless he’s ok being a non top pick in round 1.
I mean, a lot of this may mean nothing 6 weeks from now, lets see how he does when he comes back, lets see where that much anticipated velocity will be.
Would the Pirates really take him at 8? Maybe but they probably shouldn’t. Thats as high as i could see him go i guess.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Mar 13, 2026 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn’t the worst case scenario that he has to have Tommy John surgery? TJ is a low risk procedure these days. Yes it has a 12-18 month recovery time, but he’s almost certain to come through it fine. It’s also likely that any other pitcher picked in place of Giolito will need TJ at some point in their milb career too.
by rlwhite on Mar 13, 2026 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
What I’m trying to say is the main risk is the unknown of what he would have done the rest of his senior season, not whether he will fully recover. If a team feels they’ve had enough looks at him already and are confident in what his talent is, the discount should be minimal.
by rlwhite on Mar 13, 2026 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Disagree
The main risk is that he has bad mechanics that will lead to continued arm problems in the future. Also, if he does need TJS within the next couple years, he’s going to be missing at least a year in the most important time for him to be developing, which makes his chances of busting greater even if he recovers fully.
by nixa37 on Mar 13, 2026 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Did anyone say he had bad mechanics before the injury?
I’m just curious, cause I didn’t see anyone blaring sirens about his mechanics. Most everything I saw said his mechanics were fine…although if a pitcher has stuff like that, I’m sure many might be seduced by the stuff alone and not pay as close attention to the mechanics.
by NastyNate82 on Mar 13, 2026 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Needing TJS at a young age is a really bad sign
If you’re already having arm issues before facing the wear and tear of the professional game, then you probably have inefficient mechanics that put a ton of stress on your arm. That makes it far more likely that you’ll either have to be moved to the pen (because you can’t handle a starter’s workload) or end up with a career ending injury (second TJS is generally a career ender).
by nixa37 on Mar 13, 2026 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
is it really?
David Wells had TJS in 1985. AJ Burnett had it in 2003. Chris Capuano has had it twice.
I’m not saying it isn’t, but do you have any evidence besides your intuition that it actually is a really bad sign, healthwise?
by TheBigOne on Mar 13, 2026 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions
based on a study in 2002
the largest factor for TJ is how many pitches you throw. The next factor, but much less, is the slider. I don’t believe the study differentiates pitches per year vs. pitches per start.
by pedrophile on Mar 13, 2026 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
you left out the important fact that
the study you refer to looked at the number of pitches in one year between between the ages 9-14.
using that study to conclude anything more is just speculation
by TheBigOne on Mar 13, 2026 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I wasn't concluding anything
Other studies like BP focus on pitch counts, specifically when pitchers go beyond a certain threshold in a game. Their pitcher abuse points system is very loosely based on that.
by pedrophile on Mar 14, 2026 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions
It's more like 2 years recovery and it isn't as certain as you make it out to be
by pedrophile on Mar 13, 2026 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
who is the last high profile guy that didn't make it back?
besides liriano, if you want to count him.
by TheBigOne on Mar 13, 2026 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions
a few
Foppert, Ankiel, Bedard, Gagne (maybe), Capuano?, Liriano (definitely not the same as before), Proctor.
Most get the velocity back but not all. More importantly is the control that takes longer to come back if ever.
by pedrophile on Mar 13, 2026 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
most of those guys had other major issues...
gagne was almost certainly a steroid guy, proctor had major usage issues from torre, bedard had a torn labrum (much more serious), foppert wasnt any good before the injury. ankiel was a mental issue and he lost it before TJ surgery. not sure when capuano had TJ but 2010 and 2011 have been the two best years of his career. Those are some pretty terrible examples. not exactly building a good case.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Mar 13, 2026 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Proctor has usage issues - which caused the TJ.
Foppert had some of the best stuff of a prospect. His stuff didn’t come back. He was completely ruined by TJ.
Capuano had TJ twice.
horrible examples? How can you state Foppert wasn’t ruined by TJ? Or Ankiel switching to become an OF.
Liriano lost velocity.
by pedrophile on Mar 14, 2026 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions
foppert was pretty lousy in 03, pre TJ
obviously TJ didn’t help, but it’s not like he was at the level of liriano 06 before the surgery.
Ankiel was a minor league allstar as a DH before he had TJ. I’m pretty sure it wasn’t the TJ that moved him off the mound.
by TheBigOne on Mar 14, 2026 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Fopperts stuff was excellent
And are we sure when he injured himself? Some pitchers have pitched with a torn ucl for up to a full season before getting it operated on.
by pedrophile on Mar 14, 2026 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions
many of those guys had other issues
Bedard had tommy john in 03, so I’d say he made it back just fine.
Ankiel had TJ in 2002 after he switched off the mound, so he’s not relevant.
Liriano I mentioned, but I believe he initially went on the shelf with a shoulder injury before the TJ; the two are probably related.
Capuano had arguably the best year of his career last year. He made it back.
Proctor had it at 32 as a reliever, coming off a year where his ERA was over 6 anyway. Impossible to know if injuries were involved in that, but you can make a case that he was gone before the surgery anyway
Gagne also had it as a reliever, in terms of effectiveness he was probably somewhere around Liriano’s level. He was pretty good in Texas, but then fell apart in Boston and that was about the end of it.
So that leaves you with Jesse Foppert. Is Giolito going to be the next Foppert, or will he be the next Every Other Guy who had TJS?
by TheBigOne on Mar 13, 2026 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Ankiel?
he injured his elbow while pitching and decided to not make the comeback as a pitcher and had TJ and became an OF.
Liriano always had some shoulder issues and still does. They were separate from his TJ.
Proctor - his control was gone and then had the surgery. Guys that have a horrible year and then have TJ? They knew about the tear but try and pitch if they can, that is normal.
by pedrophile on Mar 14, 2026 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions
ankiel is a more complex case
with all the moving around and complete loss of control and whatnot, it’s tough to really say what effect TJ had on him. he lost control, started hitting, had TJ, came back healthy, then gave up pitching again.
by TheBigOne on Mar 14, 2026 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Bedard never had Tommy John surgery
I don’t know if you can classify Liriano in that category either. A 6 WAR season post Tommy John suggest it didn’t do anything to his stuff, but rather his control.
by Cashews! on Mar 13, 2026 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Worded that wrong
He had it but he was fine after it for some time.
by Cashews! on Mar 13, 2026 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
velocity never came back for liriano
i think it’s fair to say the stuff never came back, but he learned to be a better pitcher to compensate for it. and then somehow lost it again…
I believe bedard did have TJS in 03, but I could be wrong
by TheBigOne on Mar 13, 2026 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
liriano was throwing 94 in 2010....
it came back
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Mar 13, 2026 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions
he was down 1-2 mph
for the fastball and slider post-surgery. regardless, I think we agree on the main point: if this is the best evidence of someone not coming back from TJS, it’s not at all convincing.
by TheBigOne on Mar 13, 2026 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions
other numbers
like SwStr% would seem to indicate that it wasn’t at its pre-surgery levels
by TheBigOne on Mar 13, 2026 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
then dont use the non existent velocity argument
or are you just picking arguments until one makes sense?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Mar 13, 2026 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
no, just adding to my initial one
his fastball averaged 94.7 pre-surgery, 93.7 post-surgery.
his slider averaged 87.7 pre-surgery, 86.2 (or 85.9 if we’re sticking with 2010) post-surgery
not a huge difference, but a difference nonetheless, and one borne out in the drop in his other metrics.
by TheBigOne on Mar 14, 2026 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions
are you ignoring the fact that he spent much of his pre injury time in the pen...
where nearly every pitchers throws a couple of MPH harder?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Mar 14, 2026 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions
what's your point?
do you really believe that liriano’s stuff after TJS is entirely as good as it was before?
by TheBigOne on Mar 14, 2026 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions
yes...in 2010 when he was just as good of a pitcher as he's ever been
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Mar 14, 2026 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions
has it?
do you have evidence of this? pitch values on fangraphs actually show it as the pitch that has fallen the furthest post-surgery
by TheBigOne on Mar 14, 2026 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I saw that on fan graphs as well
But from watching him it was night and day. Also the slider was much more vicious before. As you well know pitch values can be deceptive.
Fwiw in 2010 he was in a much bigger ballpark.
by pedrophile on Mar 14, 2026 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions
what happens when your observations and the numbers say opposite things?
also, this sums up what i’ve been trying to say better than i’ve been saying it:
by TheBigOne on Mar 14, 2026 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Pitch values look at pitches in isolation
They ignore the quality of other pitches, sequencing, etc.
In 2006 his fastball and slider were devastating and hitters had to gear up for it. When a change up came the hitter would be way ahead.
Pitch values is a poor term, maybe pitch results? Because the actual value is dependent on other pitches, what the hitter did, command, etc.
When we talk about pure stuff pitch values is irrelevant. Velocity and spin rate are much more relevant stats.
by pedrophile on Mar 14, 2026 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
how is his change up better now?
more break? better location? more deceptive?
by TheBigOne on Mar 14, 2026 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
consistency, depth, fade
it was always a good weapon. But after the surgery they wanted him to go away from the slider which he was so dependent on. He focused on the change. IMO it was mostly that he improved the consistency of the pitch as it had already shown signs of being a plus pitch.
I’m not sure if you remember watching him but that slider before was a Randy Johnson type pitch. It was that unhittable. His slider now is quite good but I believe most Twins fans will tell you the difference is fairly significant. It was unhittable and he could throw it anywhere in the zone.
IMO his command was much worse when he came up but his stuff was so good he could throw it anywhere. Now his stuff is very good but it seems like he has no composure on the mound. I read an article on him and he even mentioned something about it. I guess too often he loses his composure and overthrows.
Further - it seems the Twins and him battle every year. The Twins want him to pitch to contact more and he wants to strike everyone out. While in general I agree with the Twins philosophy I’m not sure it suits him. In 2010 he went back to using the slider a ton going for the K’s and had a great year.
by pedrophile on Mar 15, 2026 2:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Btw when numbers and observations don't match
All it proves is one of them is wrong, or both. It does not prove the observation is incorrect.
by pedrophile on Mar 14, 2026 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
fair enough
i think, at least in this case, it says that the numbers aren’t measuring exactly what I think they are.
Liriano probably could’ve thrown a crappy change-up in 06 and it would’ve had a high pitch value.
The fact that the FB/CU differential was substantially greater in 06 than it has been since is probably some of the reason it was such a successful pitch in 06, even if it wasn’t “good” in the traditional sense.
by TheBigOne on Mar 14, 2026 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
except the fact that every single metric was worse in 10 than 06
(except HRA and WP) then sure, sounds good to me.
by TheBigOne on Mar 14, 2026 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions
as they would be for equivalent pitchers...
when one season a pitcher spends a significant amount of time in the pen and the other when he’s starting the entire time
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Mar 14, 2026 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
do you have any numbers
to support any of your claims, in any way?
by TheBigOne on Mar 14, 2026 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
uhh...peripheral numbers of pitchers get worse when they go from bullpen to the rotation
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Mar 15, 2026 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions
pen time
his pen time was less than 20% of his total innings, anyway. as i said below:
The reliever argument sounds good, but if you do the math, it doesn’t work out. He threw 22 innings out of the pen in 2006, out of 121 total. if you assume his average fastball as a starter was the same is in 2010 (93.7), that means he must’ve averaged 99.2 in those 22 relief innings. By the same logic, his average slider in relief must’ve been 95.2.
Applying that logic to SwStr% would put him at 35.3% SwStr% as a reliever pre-surgery, which is obviously unreasonable.
I understand your argument that he spent time in the pen, and that boosted his numbers, but it wasn’t nearly enough time in the pen to swing his numbers so dramatically.
by TheBigOne on Mar 14, 2026 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Velocity peaks early
So it’s not inconceivable to think that the velocity was a more a product of general wear and tear and age than the Tommy John surgery. He also pitched in relief in 2006 but he was strictly a starter in 2010. His stuff came back.
by Cashews! on Mar 14, 2026 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions
but not that early, usually
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/preliminary-aging-curve-for-fastball-speed/
The reliever argument sounds good, but if you do the math, it doesn’t work out. He threw 22 innings out of the pen in 2006, out of 121 total. if you assume his average fastball as a starter was the same is in 2010 (93.7), that means he must’ve averaged 99.2 in those 22 relief innings. By the same logic, his average slider in relief must’ve been 95.2. Neither of those sound right.
and look at pitch values: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3201&position=P
nothing after TJS approaches 05 and 06. His SwStr% isn’t close to what it used to be, either.
by TheBigOne on Mar 14, 2026 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions
People had also never seen him in 2005-2006
After more exposure, it’s not hard to understand why his swinging strike % dropped.
by Cashews! on Mar 14, 2026 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
could be
sounds possible, but do you have any numbers to back that up?
does that happen to most pitchers?
by TheBigOne on Mar 14, 2026 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
except he didn't rely on fooling anyone
his swinging strikes were all about stuff. There are pitchers that rely on pitch sequencing etc. to fool hitters and scouting reports will eventually help the hitters. But in the case of Liriano it was all about his stuff. How much does a scouting report on Verlander help a hitter?
by pedrophile on Mar 15, 2026 2:45 AM EDT up reply actions
even if it's 10 to 20% that don't make it fully back
do you want to use a top 5 pick on him? If he doesn’t pitch before the draft my guess is he goes somewhere between 10 and 15.
by pedrophile on Mar 14, 2026 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions
also, not sure where you get the 2 year recovery from
sure, guys have their innings limited the 2nd year, but other than that it seems to be a 1 year, maybe 14 month deal.
by TheBigOne on Mar 13, 2026 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
probably certainly?....what?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Mar 13, 2026 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions
No way he is still a top 3 pick
Teams just don’t take that kind of chance with that high of a pick. If all goes well, Giolito may be able to throw in 1 or 2 games to try to prove he is healthy. That’s just not enough time for a team that high to take a chance on him. He’s a pretty big risk right now.
by guru4u on Mar 13, 2026 7:09 AM EDT reply actions
Dear wow
I hope he falls to the Pirates and they man up and pull the trigger.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 13, 2026 8:17 AM EDT reply actions
I thought it was a strain, not a tear.
Or is this new knews?
by mr. maniac on Mar 13, 2026 9:18 AM EDT reply actions
ummm
those people who think it’s a tear aren’t paying attention. please read: “the injury will not require surgery”. it’s obviously not a good sign, but if the doctors sign off on him, he will go top-3.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Mar 13, 2026 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions
link
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/03/giolito-out-for-the-season/
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Mar 13, 2026 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions
That is what I thought.
I never heard UCL tear till I read this post, and I was wondering if that was new/
by mr. maniac on Mar 13, 2026 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Or those people just happen to know what the word sprain/strain actually implies
A sprain is the tearing and/or stretching of a ligament. Even a completely torn UCL is still considered a sprain, its just a grade III sprain.
I think it’s almost certain in Giolito’s case that he partially tore his UCL. Look no further than the the time table for his return. That’s basically the exact same amount of time (if not more) than guys with partial UCL tears miss while they rehab and try to let the injury heal on its own. If there wasn’t any sort of tear involved, I can’t imagine they’d have him sit as long as they are.
by nixa37 on Mar 13, 2026 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, normally (at least from what I have seen) you say sprain for a partial tear and torn for a full tear.
by mr. maniac on Mar 13, 2026 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Theoretically yes ...
But most teams will use sprain until they are forced to admit it’s beyond a grad I sprain. In fact some orgs Iam very skeptical of what they say. Oakland seems to be about misinformation and the Mets are just dysfunctional when it comes to injuries.
We hear forearm strain, arm tightness, etc.
IMO until we get a proper diagnosis, if we do, then it’s best to be a little wary of any injury to the elbow or forearm.
by pedrophile on Mar 13, 2026 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Mets medical staff
Not sure if they have the same medical staff, but it was always entertaining because it seemed that a guy would miss 2 weeks, and they’d say he’s day-to-day. Then after the two weeks he’d go on the DL and miss 3 more weeks.
by NastyNate82 on Mar 13, 2026 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I prefer to call that being Mike Sweeney'd
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Mar 13, 2026 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not a doctor, but...
A strain can be of 3 varieties - let’s call the least severe a pull where the ligament is strechted further than it usually goes, the next type is a partial tear, and the most severe type is a complete tear. Either tear - partial or complete - can require surgery, but a partial tear, which is what I guess Giolito has, may not require surgery.
by cooper7d7 on Mar 13, 2026 9:56 AM EDT reply actions
I'd be surprised
He’s a big question mark and I think teams want a little more assurance in a pick that high.
by Gunnarthor on Mar 13, 2026 10:53 AM EDT reply actions
For me its too early to know
If he is back throwing by draft day a team may take him we’ll see.
XandyMan Coming for you!!!!1
by DominicanDandy on Mar 13, 2026 12:45 PM EDT reply actions
And there's no reason to believe he won't be back on the mound with ample time to work out for teams
by Jeff Reese on Mar 13, 2026 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Still looks like
we found this year’s Rendon. While there are still elite players to be had, Giolito will probably get passed on because of the increased risk. The question is, who are the elite guys.
Do we have 5 again besides Giolito? (In no particular order)
Buxton
Zunino
Gausman
Appel
Marrero
Is Marrero even in that tier?
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 14, 2026 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Not for me he isn't
I would take about 10 players (other than those four) ahead of Marrero at this point. Just not sold on the bat.
by Jeff Reese on Mar 14, 2026 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
So would you agree
the top tier is/was
Giolito
Buxton
Zunino
Gausman
Appel
at least of right now?
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 15, 2026 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes
Next tier would include Fried, Weickel, Correa, Zimmer, and perhaps a few others.
by Jeff Reese on Mar 15, 2026 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Hell no
The difference in talent between him and another top 3 talent isn’t big enough to justify the risk. At best he goes near the end of the first-tier draft picks like Rendon did last year.
by valencia on Mar 13, 2026 1:34 PM EDT reply actions
word
I think this is a no-lose situation for any team actually drafting him. Just anecdotaly, the survival rate for TJ surgery appears pretty good. Worth a real debate, at least.
If a team drafts him. It’ll take a couple months to sign him. If anything he’d be pitching in the fall league (but he won’t because he’s injured). Sit out, recover during the off season and start instructional leagues in the spring with all the other first-year-player drafted kids.
If the team drafts him and he doesn’t sign (I expect him to get low-balled with the excuse of new slotting) the team will get a compensation pick next year. It seems each top player in this draft has some flaw. There isn’t a sure-fire pick in this lot.
Some team will gamble early.
by The Economist on Mar 14, 2026 1:29 AM EDT reply actions
Big gamble for a team that is in the bottom five
If the bottom 5 or maybe even 10, Giolito would be a big gamble. Right now, I would think Zunino, Buxton, Correa, and Marrero would be top position players. I would predict top college guys as Appel, Gausman and Zimmer. That is 7 players right there. So, would a team like KC, who may be looking for pitchers, rather go with a college guy whose is closer to big leagues based on experience and age? Or take risk on HS right hander who might have huge health risk.
Change of draft rules really comes into play for this case. Moving up draft and signing date does give Giolito much chance, if any, to prove health. Teams won’t be able to draft him later like Angels did with Adenhart. They won’t have all summer to get him signed either like a draft and follow/late August signing.
by daveyork on Mar 14, 2026 4:34 PM EDT reply actions
Something to say? Choose one of these options to log in.
- » Create a new SB Nation account
- » Already registered with SB Nation? Log in!
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
- Start posting on Minor League Ball
- Minor League Ball on Facebook
- Follow @MinorLeagueBall
- Follow Minor League Ball on your Android Device!
- Subscribe to Minor League Ball Stories
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
What Should The Giants Do With Brandon Belt?
Alcides Escobar And Yuniesky Betancourt
Arizona Spring Training Tour: Scottsdale Stadium
More from Baseball Nation >
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
