Adrian Salcedo vs. Stetson Allie

by John Sickels on Sep 26, 2025 1:30 PM EDT

Sunday's discussion question got a good response. If you didn't already know, Pitcher A is Adrian Salcedo of the Minnesota Twins, and Pitcher B is Stetson Allie of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

I ended up voting for Allie since he has a higher ceiling, and at that stage of their careers I think that trumps Salcedo's superior command. However, while his ceiling isn't as high as Allie's, Salcedo's floor is likely higher. In other words, Allie has a greater range of possible outcomes due to his arm strength. He has a better chance of becoming a star, but his chance of being a total bust is probably higher than Salcedo's.

However, it is a close call, and next year if Salcedo continues to pitch well and Allie doesn't, that opinion could change. In terms of grades, I think both are likely to rate as Grade B- prospects in the 2012 book, albeit for very different reasons.

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Comments

It was an interesting question, John.

I went with B as well, was thinking of Kyle Drabek as I chose. He had serious control and composure issues this season but I’ve seen him pitch when things are working and he can be downright nasty good. At his age you can’t overlook that potential when control issues can often be corrected.

Drabek/Allie can very easily become top of the rotation starters while the other option most likely tops out as a serviceable starter or bullpen arm. Classic risk/reward scenario.

by transmogrifier on Sep 26, 2025 4:17 PM EDT reply actions

very well done indeed

I voted Salcedo. but not knowing it was him…lol
The HR rate for Adrian is impressive its pretty small and maybe next year in FSL it will be non-exsistant
(okay probably just a dream)

Allie still remains a very interesting guy and he could just as easily shoot up way past Salcedo.
Now that i know the names, it made it an interesting topic, discussion. Good question

When you get Jim Hoey, Brett Jacobsen, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, Cole Nelson, Lester Oliveros, Matt Capps, Jason Pridie, Brendan Harris, and 20,000 dollars for a half dozen key intrical parts to you're organization eveybody hurts.
And you're fan base begins to revolt. Why does Bill Smith evaluate talent? He would be much better served as the teams ball boy.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Sep 26, 2025 8:26 PM EDT reply actions

Excellent question and one I'm sure scouts ask themselves

Allie was a premium prep prospect and if he figures it out he could move fast with his talent but for me, and this is just me, I believe guys with terrible control rarely figure it out. I’m not saying never, just rarely. And we all know of elite arms who can’t throw enough strikes.

I’ll go out on a weak, shaky limb and write that Allie will struggle to be successful in the minors and MLB (I think he’ll be given a shot there eventually).

Salcedo looks good now but who knows what becomes of him. At this point, I’d feel more comfortable with him though. I don’t always like safe over big talent but I like strike throwers who minimize walks and aren’t getting banged around for an inordinate amount of hits more than the great arm who seems to have much else going for him on the mound.

Rockies Analyst (google)
and
Colorado Rockies’ Prospects Report

by Mjay424 on Sep 26, 2025 11:34 PM EDT reply actions

I was just looking at Salcedo

a couple of days ago. I actually thought his year was pretty darned good. If the reports about his needing to learn how to locate pitches off the plate are accurate then I think his strikeout numbers might hold as he advances. Love the combo of low walk rate and single-digit home runs allowed. Very strong indicators for a 20-year-old. I think one reasonable outcome might be Nestor Molina, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Salcedo took a similar step forward in the next year or two.

by blackoutyears on Sep 26, 2025 11:57 PM EDT reply actions

Agree

Salcedo is the better prospect to me now. Allie is just big talent. He’s not a prospect until he cleans himself up. Sort of like Rockies’ 2009 no. 1 pick Tyler Matzek. Good stuff, hard to hit at times but he was atrocious for a large part of 2011, with an ERA over 10, as many walks as innings pitched and a demotion. He finished strong and looks promising again but earlier in the season, despite his rich talent, he was no prospect in my book. You can’t have a nearly 1/1 ratio of walks/innings pitched and go anywhere.,

Allie is just a baby but he’s got a long ways to go no matter how hard he throws, no matter how enticing his stuff.

Salcedo, despite a lesser upside, is the superior prospect now.

by Mjay424 on Sep 27, 2025 2:48 AM EDT reply actions

What you seem to have described here

Is that Salcedo is the superior pitcher now. Much, much different than what you wrote.

Allie’s walk rate and results in an egregiously small sample of innings in 2011 have nothing to do with his long-term projections and how they compare to Salcedo’s. Yeah, Allie does have a long way to go, but frankly, Salcedo does too. They’re both 20 and both in A-ball, there’s significant flame-out risk for either player. Command/control guys like Salcedo flop in Double-A or the big leagues all the time. Just because he’s posting better results in Low-A doesn’t mean that he’s even materially safer as a prospect than Allie.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 27, 2025 3:40 AM EDT up reply actions

There doesn't have to be a difference

between better pitcher and better prospect. Salcedo’s stuff is plenty good. It’s not like he’s sitting 87 with unearthly command. I’m intrigued that people are so much more sanguine about the ability to suddenly establish control and command of plus stuff than they are about a guy with very good command of solid avg or better stuff maintaining it as he advances. I like lottery tix as much as the next guy, but Salcedo is being underrated imo.

by blackoutyears on Sep 27, 2025 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I love low BB rates, especially with higher K-rates, but Dan is right, in that they can flame out as they move up the ladder. I personally voted for Salcedo, but can see the argument for Allie more now than I would have in the past. Remember, Allie wasn’t a starting pitcher until the his Senior year in High School, if I remember correctly. He is very raw. He still has time to turn it around, next year will be important. He could turn into a Bobby Jenks type reliever.

by cookiedabookie on Sep 27, 2025 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Um,

I’ve written many times on here since his draft (including today) that Allie has some histroy that has probably retarded his growth.

And to reiterate, Salcedo is not simply a command guy. His stuff is good. ANY pitcher can flame out as he advances. Focusing on players with good control/command in this regard is absurd.

by blackoutyears on Sep 27, 2025 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions

The time to worry about Allie’s control is August 2013. If he can’t throw strikes by then….

s.zielinski

by steve_z on Sep 28, 2025 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Why then?

Is he going to burst into flames? Mandatory retirement?

by blackoutyears on Sep 29, 2025 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Of course there doesn't

I was referring to the tone of the previous comment (as I saw it), of course.

Salcedo’s a good prospect, but I think the way the argument was framed - safe command guy vs risky big arm guy - led people to believe that Salcedo as the safer prospect was a sure thing. Is Salcedo even twice as likely as Allie to be a big-league pitcher? Especially since Salcedo is a FB/CH guy - how often do those guys flame out in Double-A without a good breaking ball to miss bats instead of just tricking Low-A bats with timing? That isn’t meant to be a blanket statement for all guys like that - heck, I watch Ian Kennedy dominate mostly w/ FB/CH every fifth day as a D-backs fan - but Salcedo’s already-low K-Rate simply worries me for this reason, and I think his floor is being overestimated.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 27, 2025 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I think

you’re reading what you want to read. And I’m not sure how much pull Mjay424 has with the masses (“led people to believe”), but I think we’re all safe from the perils of over-valuing any one minor league pitcher. Re Salcedo’s “already low K rate”, he featured very strong K rates until this year, and it makes sense to wait and see how that plays out over the next couple of seasons. Part of the reason I mention Molina (besides similar stuff and deliveries) is that his strikeout rate rose into very effective territory this year. Nothing says that will happen for Salcedo, but then, attempting to project the future strikeout rate of a 20-year-old who “throws too many strikes” based purely on this year’s is not exactly scientific.

How much do you actually know about Salcedo? Because most of your points seem like boilerplate “command guys are like this” rather than anythign relating specifically to him.

by blackoutyears on Sep 27, 2025 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

i agree well said

Salcedo prior to this year was actually known within the twins system for his k rates and strikeout potential

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Sep 28, 2025 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions

I think

part of that was due to his unleashing quality stuff and strike-throwing ability on Rookie Ball hitters, and I expected the rate to drop a bit as he advanced. Callis’ remark on him in his MWL chat is well-taken, making the distinction between a control pitcher (Salcedo) and a command pitcher. I had also noticed that Salcedo’s G/F ratio had dropped. It’s still good at 1.44 (53% GB rate), but he can’t drop much lower if he’s going to remain effective. Henderson Alvarez has been an interesting study in how pedestrian strikeout rates coupled with excellent control and high groundball rates can work, but then Salcedo doesn’t have Alvarez’s FB. He’s going to have to learn how to locate off the plate.

by blackoutyears on Sep 28, 2025 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Well I'd have been a bit of a prick if I'd said

“led Mjay424 to believe” as if he was the only one who could have succumbed to the framing of the post. You might not be swayed in any way by such influences, but that doesn’t mean others aren’t.

He has a good FB/CH combo that can should always give him some rudimentary ability to miss bats, but I’d like to see at least an average breaking ball. I’m more confident that change-up feel can be developed steadily over time than an average breaking ball be crafted out of a consistently below-average one, which gives me confidence about Allie w.r.t. my concerns about Salcedo.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 28, 2025 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions