Update and Suggestions

I think a nice feature would be an article or two on prospects whose stock has gone up (or down) significantly so far this season. C+ guys who may now be Bs, B guys who are now looking like Cs, etc. The Notes feature (which is great) touches on these kind of guys, but I think an article focusing on them would be quite interesting.

The kid is batting .404 through the first 208 AB’s in 2011.

Can someone with his body type be successful at higher levels?

I have been always curious on how Barry Larkin (1st round 4th pick overall in 1985 out of college) compared to Shawon Dunston (1st round, 1st overall pick in 1982 out of high school). Both players are similar in age and started their careers within a year of each other.

Since the draft is coming up, it can always wait. Just throwing out ideas

you had done a Not A Rookie on him back in February 2010, but that is outdated now.

Would love to hear some info on how he has been so unlucky throughout his career (consistently lower FIP and xFIP’s than his ERA). His pure stuff is so good!

I’d love to hear how you judge the likelihood of success. I don’t have a great sense of the probabilities of a player becoming a star versus a regular versus a utility player versus a career minor leaguer. Obviously this varies on the grade and the position to start. There are of course a lot of factors, but how important are the different ones in your mind. So, for example, what’s the likelihood of a grade A hitting prospect becoming a star? 50%? 25%? How much of a difference does the level he’s at right now make? How much of a difference does his age make? How much of a difference does his missing skill make—I’d assume if the player’s missing plate discipline, he’s more likely to fail.

Seen so many flame out/underproduce in the last few years. A lot of these kids are borderline 1st round picks getting paid first round money (even high first round money). Would be interesting to see a (relatively) comprehensive list, and just how many of these guys fail for every one who succeeds. Imagine that the math justifies the investment, even if only one out of every ten make it, but would be interesting to see just how many bonuses these teams have to go through to get a useful part.

How about it?

Revisit possible draft rounds you proposed earlier. Nothing too in-depth, just name, previous projected draft round, and current projected draft round, with an explanation of why people have moved up or down in your mind.