Discussion Question: Kyle Drabek

by John Sickels on Mar 4, 2026 2:15 PM EST

True or False: Kyle Drabek is an overrated pitching prospect who will struggle in the major leagues in 2011 and never live up to his full potential.

Poll

Kyle Drabek is overrated and will struggle in the majors in 2011

True

400 votes

False

496 votes

896 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 42 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

The poll is very poorly written

I think that Drabek is not at all overrated but I also think that he may struggle this year. Most pitchers do struggle in their first season, so I really can’t vote in this poll.

Big Sexy!

by King Billy Royal on Mar 4, 2026 2:25 PM EST reply actions

Yeah, I voted false, but I do think he will struggle this year.

by quacker27 on Mar 4, 2026 11:31 PM EST up reply actions

Not sure about all that...but I do want to ask...

Does Drabek strike anyone else as a young Brad Penny with way more “pitchability?”

by SenorGato on Mar 4, 2026 2:38 PM EST reply actions

Penny

Going through the minors fanned just over 10 per 9IP, Walked around 2.75 per nine, with a K/BB of about 3.7 (not counting his rehab starts). Drabek fanned 7.5 per 9, walked 3.4 per 9, with a K/BB of about 2.2. I don’t think Penny had ANY “pitchability” coming up, but i don’t think Drabek has his arsenal, either.
I kind of get what you are getting at (I think), and i agree a career like Brad’s is very possible, but Penny was a superior prospect, IMO.
Oh, and I think he is an overhyped prospect, but while i think he may reach his full potential, i’m not sure his full potential is super high to begin with…does that make sense?

by drwmsu1 on Mar 4, 2026 3:38 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah it makes sense.

I lean towards your direction, but I was surprised to find that I liked the way he threw the ball. He’s got strikeout stuff and Toronto does well with fastball/curveball guys so maybe something clicks there.

by SenorGato on Mar 6, 2026 2:39 AM EST up reply actions

I should say that...

I think with prospects, especially talented guys like Drabek, conditioning and general instruction in the minor leagues can affect performance. For instance, I’m sure no one actually thinks Casey Kelly is a future 5 ERA pitcher. He probably had new workouts, new diets, some mechanical tweaks, some of this, and some of that to work on.

by SenorGato on Mar 6, 2026 3:13 AM EST up reply actions

I see him as an overhyped prospect who never suceeds.

I don’t like players with straight FBs.

by mr. maniac on Mar 4, 2026 2:40 PM EST reply actions

Let me change that to never lives up to his potential.

by mr. maniac on Mar 4, 2026 3:54 PM EST up reply actions

straight fastballs?

seriously, he’s got a four seamer, two seamer and cutter and they have a lot of life. command is his issue, but his stuff is great.

I think he is underrated, myself.

by ayjackson on Mar 5, 2026 10:18 PM EST up reply actions

http://bullpenbanter.com/index.php?option=com_content&view;=article&id;=379:banter-breakdown-kyle-drabek&catid;=18:articles&Itemid;=11

by mr. maniac on Mar 5, 2026 10:24 PM EST up reply actions

it says right there that his two seamer has excellent life

what is your point?

by Pikachu on Mar 5, 2026 10:55 PM EST up reply actions

Never understood the hype

Drabek, as farm as I’m concerned, is a middling prospect. He’s walked too many and hasn’t stuck out enough in the minors to be considered an elite or can’t-miss prospect. If his name was Kyle Smith, i think our discussion/expectations would be much different.

http://overzealousfan.blogspot.com

by asufan550 on Mar 4, 2026 4:14 PM EST reply actions

+1

by mr. maniac on Mar 4, 2026 5:46 PM EST up reply actions

Or if his name was Rudy Owens

/Frank Coonnelly’d

by OctaShields on Mar 4, 2026 8:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

he's underrated if you ask me

his groundball tendencies are seriously overlooked, his ceiling is much higher than he’s given credit for.

by nmr123321 on Mar 4, 2026 4:50 PM EST reply actions

floor, not celing

meant floor, not ceiling

by nmr123321 on Mar 4, 2026 4:50 PM EST up reply actions

+1

Not sure why KD has become such a whipping boy lately.

The Bad Guy

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by Dewey Finn on Mar 4, 2026 5:36 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe it's all the unearned runs?

Isn’t the difference between 2.94 and 3.72 concrete proof he is vastly overrated?

"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism

by chewbalka on Mar 4, 2026 11:04 PM EST up reply actions

Considering he’s mainly a groundball pitcher, it’s not really surprising that he allowed as many unearned runs as he did last season.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

by Frag on Mar 5, 2026 1:28 AM EST up reply actions

I don’t know this for a fact, but I would guess that RA/ERA averages a lot higher in the minors than the majors. A groundball pitcher is going to suffer in terms of RA in the minors because of raw defenders behind him, but should see a big boost in that department when he reaches the majors.

by phatj on Mar 6, 2026 11:04 PM EST up reply actions

I've thought he was overrated for a while

I had him on my MiLB roster for a league and dealt him as fast as I could when I saw he was being ranked in the Top 25. I think he’ll be a 3.75 ERA, 1.27 WHIP type guy with ~6.5-7 K/9. While that’s pretty valuable, that’s also more or less Scott Baker or James Shields.

by OctaShields on Mar 4, 2026 8:08 PM EST reply actions

i think he’s underrated. great stuff but mediocre stats

by Pikachu on Mar 4, 2026 8:44 PM EST reply actions

definitely

The Bad Guy
Twitter: @KBRandDewey

by Dewey Finn on Mar 5, 2026 1:35 AM EST up reply actions

I think

He’ll have his rough outings but by the end of the season he will be an establish member of the rotation just like Matusz last year.

by DominicanDandy on Mar 5, 2026 12:29 AM EST reply actions

Sounds reasonable.

by SenorGato on Mar 6, 2026 2:42 AM EST up reply actions

Statistics

I don’t think they tell the whole story, he was told to work on his change and starting throwing a cutter. If he just went out there firing his fb/curve he probably would of had better strike out numbers and possibly improved control. But thats the things with prospects a lot of the time, statistics just aren’t the end all when they are in the minors as I’m sure most know but sometimes focus too much on.

That said after watching him pitch in the majors I think there is a lot to like about the kid. During the Yanks match up he looked pretty impressive, his FB was 92-96 and I don’t think it looked that straight (seemed to have late downward movement, if only slightly) and if it doesn’t I’m not sure how he gets the GB’s as he does. The cutter also looked to be effective weapon as did the change … though his location on it still isn’t ideal. Throw on top that he isn’t afraid to come inside and oh yea he has that curve and I’m not sure what people are upset about. Yes his AA stats weren’t ideal but watching him he looked quite good.

IMO if things go right he can be a #2 in his prime and a #3 type generally, which is a really good prospect. My best guess is the people who think he is overrated disagree with the TOR tag he gets labeled with a majority of the time and are numbers orientated. Heck, I might of agreed if I didn’t like what I saw in his brief MLB time.

by hybrid on Mar 5, 2026 4:44 AM EST reply actions

His stuff...

seemed like his stuff is heavy…like hitting a bowling ball or something.

by SenorGato on Mar 6, 2026 3:14 AM EST up reply actions

I think

he’s going to struggle this year because it’s the AL East and that park is tough and the Blue Jays aren’t a great defensive team.

The other parts of the question I have no opinion of.

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Mar 5, 2026 10:40 AM EST reply actions

the Jays’ defense isn’t great? Their middle infield is pretty elite defensively

by Pikachu on Mar 5, 2026 11:30 AM EST up reply actions

looking

at that stupid quote on his signature, he doesn’t seem to be much of a fan of Escobar or fielding metrics. Its not easy to find a better double play combo than Escobar and Hill

by nmr123321 on Mar 5, 2026 3:03 PM EST up reply actions

to be fair

UZR doesn’t like either of them that much. DRS and TZ loves them though

by Pikachu on Mar 5, 2026 3:09 PM EST up reply actions

your sarcasm detector is rather dull

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Mar 5, 2026 11:32 PM EST up reply actions

You're just picking a fight.

Using two of the eight starters as evidence contrary to my claim that they’re not great defensively.

Two players do not make a great defensive unit, or even a good one.

Piss off troll.

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Mar 5, 2026 11:37 PM EST up reply actions

umm

Drabek’s a groundballer, so much of the defense involves the infield. The middle infield has the most chances to make plays. The middle infield of Hill and Escobar is above average according to UZR, elite according to DRS and TZ. And I’m a troll for saying this?

by Pikachu on Mar 6, 2026 8:46 AM EST up reply actions

I'd go with slightly overrated, will struggle in 2011, but will eventually live up to his potential

The poll leaves the last ‘but’ out of it, but includes it in the question before the poll. I think ultimately he’ll be a fine, solid #2/3.

by Brownson on Mar 5, 2026 5:15 PM EST reply actions

Drabek Comps

Can anyone come up with a comparable to Drabek as far as stuff and body type? He looks very strange out there on the mound with his short and stocky build and the single digit number. There have been some relievers with this profile (Ricky Bottalico comes to mind he might have been a little taller and leaner) but Drabek is a strange one.

by twoseamer on Mar 5, 2026 10:15 PM EST reply actions

Good question. BP did have Pat Hentgen 8th or so among comps

Steve Trachsel shows up higher and also had the good curveball but I like the Hentgen comp the more I think about it and better yet, Pat is one of the bullpen coaches this year - hooray.

"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism

by chewbalka on Mar 6, 2026 3:03 PM EST up reply actions

Pat Hentgen-like would be a fantastic outcome for Drabek. Hentgen won a Cy Young.

by siggian on Mar 6, 2026 9:31 PM EST up reply actions

i personally won't be happy with a pat hentgen like outcome

his numbers weren’t great, even in his cy young year. Granted, he pitched well considering he played in the steroid era and he was a workhorse for that 8 year span. Still, i expect better from Drabek.

by Pikachu on Mar 6, 2026 11:46 PM EST up reply actions

Dusty Baker eat your heart out!

Not being able to remember his numbers off the top of my head, I went back to look at Hentgen’s record. Seeing the 264 and 265.2 innings seasons back to back sent me to the recent leaderboards. Is anyone else stunned that six of the top 10 innings totals in the AL over the last 15 years belong to Blue Jays pitchers?

by realitypolice on Mar 8, 2026 9:54 AM EST up reply actions