BA's Cubs Top Prospects 2011

he doesn’t need to improve it by a ton … his stuff is that good that as long as the command/control is decent …

as an side, I still have Archer ahead of McNutt as well, but I voted for McNutt in the CPL ahead of Archer as I didn’t see any way people were going to put Archer ahead that high.

The mechanics have never bothered me as much as some. I think he should be in the top 10 … but to call it awfully silly … I don’t know. Coming out of college, the reports on the slider were good, but last year, his slider was very iffy. Right now, he’s a solid fastball, decent slider, decent curveball, and decent change. The improved control bodes well for his chances to stick as a starter if he can improve one of the breaking pitches (probably the slider).

I’d take him over a guy like Dolis because I’ve got much more faith in Jay as a starter (speaks more to my view on Dolis as a starter than on Jay right now), but if both are viewed as pen arms, Dolis might be a bit more intriguing with his gb rates and his upper 90’s velo.

this is the first time this offseason that I’ve felt really positive that the Cubs will move Cashner back into the rotation. I’ve been very worried about that … but BA made is sound rather definitive. That said, only time … and spring … will tell.

If Archer can improve his control to be plus-plus on fastball and slider the majority of the time … who has the higher ceiling? For the past year, most assumptions on ceiliing have focused on Cashner, and then an array of arms afterwards. I haven’t heard anyone suggest plus-plus for Cashner on anything (granted, some people did say he had the 4th best fb in the minors to start 2010 … so maybe I should assume plus-plus there).

That said, ceiliing only goes so far, and Cashner is more polished than Archer. At the very least, here’s hoping the Cubs give all three guys a long look in the rotation first (actually, I’d throw Carpenter in there as well, if we’re talking about hopes).

BA said top 20, which is somewhat surprising as I thought they would go tools heavy and put him high, due to his plus-plus power, which might be the best raw power in the system. Shows how raw he is that they wouldn’t even ponder him top 15, though. Mixed reports out of AZL.

My feeling is that the Cubs org is down on Jay Jackson right now (well since the demotion last year). There were some … non-baseball related issues, and when you factor in that his slider was spotty all year, that’s 2 big negatives, and the only positive was control improvement (which is certainly big, but a guy who simply goes to his fastball without solid secondary offerings isn’t going to get far). That said, Jay has shown promise on the slider in the past, so there’s some hope to turn it around. Personally, I had him a solid top 10.

in that, the Nats are top heavy, and there’s a case that star power is more important. That said, with the attrition rates of prospects, the Cubs depth may make a difference (this is loosely shown in the BP list, where the Nats have 2 5, 2 4, 4 3, 2 2 starts in their top 10, while the cubs have 3 4 stars and 7 3 stars).

The way I think about it is that I would take the Nats Top 4 easily (largely a consensus that it is Harper, Norris, Espinosa, Cole), but I would take the Cubs, say, 5-20 over the Nats group of guys that follow. If you put a gun to my head and said make a choice, I’d probably go with the Cubs because I prefer systems that have the arm depth that the cubs have, but I can obviously see the case for the Nats as the Cubs don’t have anyone close to Harper territoriy.

I haven’t followed the entire minors as closely this past year, but I had the Cubs roughly pegged in the mid-teens for most of the year. I just don’t see enough real solid, you feel confident about it, impact at the top. I think the overall top 6 or 7 or so of the Cubs system will stack up well enough against most organizations, but the top 3 … much as I think B Jax is underrated, doesn’t seem to carry an absolute elite player as of now to warrant a top 10 selection. I mean, if you told me with Cashner and Castro, the Cubs had a shot at being a top 5-8 system, I’d easily buy that (I have no idea what the argument for the Cubs being the number 2 system would be with Cashner and Castro)..

One thing to be said is that, after the top tier of organizations, I do think about 15-20 organizations are bunched rather close together, so the difference between 8 and 20 might not be that much this year.