Saturday All-Questions Answered

Well, WHY has he virtually-busted? Other than saying that he was overrated to begin with by scouts, I don’t know. It isn’t just that his tools haven’t developed, but the tools themselves just don’t seem as impressive now.

Heart of hearts, my guess is that he could still turn into a useful role player but I just can’t see him developing into the star expected, and likely not a regular either.

Well, of that group I would go Price, Hellickson, Moore, Archer, Davis, Neimann, Sonnanstine, Talbot.

I would say non-issue as long as we are aware of it. However, this is exactly why I don’t put pitching prospects and hitting prospects on the same list together….this is why I do a 50/50 list instead of a top 100 list.

Yeah it is very unusual for me. . .i tend to be very suspicious about guys like that. As for why….hard to explain really. Partly intuition I would say

It is way too early to give up on Holland, he cut his ERA by two runs last year with improved components that support it. I don’t see that his stock has really fallen that much, it is probably more a case that their priorities have just changed a bit. Yes he still has a chance to be a really good pitcher. Remember he was rushed to the majors in the first place.

stars like Halladay and Greinke is hardly an indictment.

I haven’t really thought about that….I’d have to go through the B- list and rank them, which would take some time. It is hard enough to rank all the B+ guys in comparison to each other, let alone Bs and B-s.

Game Six and Game Seven of the 1991 World Series are tied in my mind….Puckett’s homer to win game six, and Jack Morris’ ironman performance in Game Seven.

This would be really valuable for fantasy fans.

Well, I don’t put them in the book…I used to do that for Rotowire and there will be some in the Rotowire magazine that comes out this spring, but in the book I don’t do them and hadn’t really thought about it before. Maybe next year. I haven’t done them because I personally don’t like ETAs…there are just too many variables to consider, especially the guys in the low minors.

Perez….late 2011 Teheran late 2011 Lamb late 2011 Castro mid 2011.

i don’t know if they care too much about public perceptions. Personally I’d give him another chance as a starter, although he may be a guy who needs a change of scenery to truly thrive.

It really doesn’t make sense why they won’t try him out as a starter again. Their rotation is clearly in trouble. Last year I understood the argument that their rotation was full and Joba was needed in the setup role. However, with Soriano being the bridge to Mo, is Joba more valuable as a 6th/7th inning man or starter? I think the answer is obvious. Its a shame the Yankees dont see it that way. They really ruined a golden arm and the confidence of a good kid.

Well I don’t know about straight A types….but some B+/A- possibles would be both Carlos Perezes, (atlanta LHP and Toronto C), Zach Wheeler, Trevor May, Jesse Biddle, Miguel Sano, and Brett Eibner

I’ll say A-/B+ territory is possible for Drake Britton and Anthony Ranaudo in particular.

Well he stayed in relief in winter ball. He woudl probably move faster in that role than as a starter. I would probably keep him there for now.

I think they should move him to catcher :)

He has been a decent player but not really a guy that deserved an A- grade.

Well of recent guys I am REALLY happy with the way Dan Hudson looks right now. I think I was higher on Billy Butler than a lot of people were. Josh Willingham has been a very solid hitter and people were skeptical about him.

Jed Lowrie is an interesting case. i took a lot of flack for that A-, but injuries looked like they ruined him. He finally had some health last year and played very well, albeit in limited action. If he can sustain that in a greater sample, then the call won’t look so bad.

Matt Wieters needs to get his ass in gear or he’ll look like a bad call.

Alex Gordon.

This is a good philosophical question for a larger post.

I think Triple-A tends to teach hitters a lot more about hitting quality breaking balls and changeups than Double-A does.

I don’t think I understand the question fully….Bumgarner did fine last year.

right now I have them as slightly below average. If guys like Ranaudo for example pan out, they could move up to slightly above average next year.

I’ll agree with you on that….Rays got a good haul.

Would you rather be the Rays stockpiling 12 picks out of 90, potentially getting more good players, or be the Pirates potentially getting an MVP-caliber talent and then another potential Stetson Allie at the top of the 2nd?

Not saying Rendon is already an MVP-caliber talent before he’s even been drafted, just saying in general: #1 pick = very very talented.

He is not a bust, yet…he’s looked like it a few times, but then he pulls a good season out of his hat. I think he can still become a useful major league player, an average regular, which is a lot better than being a bust.

Scouts seem to be writing him off as a Quadruple-A guy. My guess is that he can contribute in the back of a bullpen but will never live up to the early expectations.

HOF level glove? That’s a pretty high standard.

There is an enormous amount of hype about Iglesias and my inner curmudgeon tends to react against that sort of thing. The optimistic take would have him developing into someone like Omar Vizquel or Ozzie Smith. But he could also turn into Adam Everett is his bat doesn’t develop as the Red Sox hope. Most likely he’ll be somewhere in between those extremes

ETA would be sometime after mid-season 2011 for his first exposure. but I wouldn’t expect significant playing time until 2012.

I agree with you on this, Eibner is getting lost in the shuffle and that is a mistake. I liked him as both a pitcher and hitter, but he wants to hit and it makes sense for the Royals.

Power is his best offensive asset. I can see him being a 25+ homer hitter, with good outfield defense. We’ll have to see how his plate discipline looks in pro ball, but I’m optimistic about him.

I won’t compare DSL guys to players who have already appeared in North America.

Well, this makes sense in theory, but so many things can happen between now and then, who knows what will happen? There will be injuries, trades, unexpected promotions, unexpected failures, unexpected breakouts. Other than saying they have a lot of young talent and things will be interesting in 3-4 years, I don’t think we can get more specific.

Hellickson will make 29 starts, go 10-11 with a 4.11 ERA and a 135/59 K/BB ratio in 172 innings. He will finish third in the rookie of the year voting.

Well, some scouts think Lyles is maxed out velocity-wise and won’t pick up much more zip. Others disagree. I’d say his odds of becoming a genuine number one starter are, I dunno, 15-20%? Such pitchers are pretty rare.

Yeah, i think there is a good chance of that.

right field.

into that list if you would please John
thanks

Lawrie, Machado, Gordon, Segura, Kipnis, Green, Franklin, Hamilton, Profar. Fantasy only. However, there is a lot of apples/oranges there.

I have no idea if he starts over Scutaro. Haven’t followed Bosox rumors closely enough to know.

What he did last year is what I expected he could/would do back when I gave him the A-…a middle infielder who can hit .287/.381/.526 is VERY valuable. However, the sample is small…it COULD be a fluke. I prefer to think that he finally got healthy enough to show us what he could do, but I am biased.

http://newyork.sbnation.com/new-york-yankees/2011/1/14/1934926/new-york-yankees-pitching-prospects-2011-ivan-nova-manny-banuelos-andrew-brackman-dellin-betances

the only one I know well is Jim Callis, who i used to work with at STATS.

No idea really….

Allen seems to have fallen off the radar of a lot of people, but that is a mistake. I wouldn’t expect a big batting average from him, but he has 20+ homer power and should draw quite a few walks. He might not age too well, but I expect he can have some really excellent power seasons in the age 26-29 window.

Matt Davidson and Bobby Borchering still have chances. Tyler Skaggs.

If he doesn’t get off to a good start in ’11 he will get passed by other pitchers on the depth chart…which would increase the chance that he ends up in the bullpen.

If I had to lay money down I’d say he ends up like Luke Hochevar…good arm, never lives up to expectations.

Slightly below average overall. They are strong at the top with Pineda, Ackley, Franklin, but they don’t have a lot of depth behind them, although some of their C/C+ types could improve. Big fan of James Jones.

Upside for Vitek….if he really pans out, .280-.300 hitter with 15 homers, 15 steals, strong OBP.

Hmm….

.287/.398/.525.

Probably Meso but I like Grandal a lot too. I think they can both be starting catchers at the major league level and perform well on both sides of the ball.

Hm….well it is kind of early for me to draw a direct comp with another player…but I see him as someone who can hit .280+ with at least moderate power. Could be more in Colorado. Mixed reviews on his defense but he cut his error rate in half last year and I think he can stick there at least awhile.

I don’t think either are going to be monster star players but I think both will have years as above-average hitters.

I don’t think it is an issue….if they start off in AA and play well, the opportunity to move up will be there. Yorman Bazardo isn’t going to hold Kyle Gibson back if Gibson is pitching well.

I think his improvement is mostly for real. I wish he drew a few more walks, but that’s just me. He might be more of a .260-.270 hitter in the majors so more walks would help juice the OBP.

Well I hate making predictions like that until we see how guys start performing once the amateur seasons get going, but it looks good on paper.

Betances, although it is fairly close.

I actually agree with this, Grichuk has a LOT of potential…the lack of patience is worrisome but he may be a guy who can get away with it, at least he has so far at the lower levels. He doesn’t have to become a walk machine, but even a marginal improvement with his zone judgment could carry him way up the prospect charts.

Hmm….Burgess has more of a chance than Jones does at this point…more pop in his bat.

Other than eight starts at Bradenton last year, he’s never put up numbers that match the scouting reports. I think he’s a good prospect but I just don’t see him as a future star like some people are now projecting.

Maybe…I wouldn’t give up on him just yet as a catcher, but if he can’t get the bat going, moving to the mound makes sense, and yes there would be hope for him there.

Wilmer Flores….youth.

i think i’d go lipka, simmons, salcedo, jones. Salcedo has the greatest upside but he was awful in his debut. the other guys are better bets to reach their ceilings even if their ceiling isn’t as high.

thin system. I think Brayan Villareal is underrated. Good stuff, good track record.

I don’t pay any attention to football. I don’t even know who is in the playoffs

I’m losing hope.

Looks like he posted his while I was typing mine.

I don’t think it significantly alters their chances….maybe Chirinos and Guyer might come up a bit sooner than otherwise, but I don’t think it is a big difference.

Well given that all we have on most of these guys is good scouting reports, it is hard to say without seeing them alll in person or doing a video comparison that would take awhile. I’d say Matias and Heredia have the highest ceilings based on what I know now.

I’m not convicned he’ll even reach the majors, so I don’t predict a slash line based on Low-a numbers.

He’s young enough to rebound, certainly. has to get better command of the strike zone though.

Not impossible but he has a lot of work to do….everything fell apart last year. Probably less than 50/50

Long run Rosario is the best option but he has to prove he’s healthy. Short term Iannetta and McKenry are good options. Pacheco ends up as trade bait…

Carrasco….4.42 ERA, 145 K in 175 innings. Best season, cut a run off the ERA

Worst case he gets stuck in Triple-A, hitting .280 or so every year with fair power but never doing much in the majors.

Best case he reaches the majors, hits .280-.300 with 15 homers a year.

late 2011. plays in 2012. Comp….I dunno, someone who hits .260-.290 with 20 homers a year, decent OBP.

OPS +127 last year. There is nothing wrong with Jay Bruce. He could win an MVP someday.

OIt will get the chance first. A little too ealry to know if Villanueva will pan out. HIgher ceiling, higher risk than Olt.

Would have to think about this for a bit.

I like Torres as a prospect but I wouldn’t label him a top prospect with his poor command and small stature. I know there are some exceptions to the rule (i.e. Pedro) but most short starters don’t do too well in the big leagues. Just like in the porn industry; size matters.

I have him as a strong Grade B in the book. I like him. But the walks concern me a little….

Well he has almost no Triple-A experience and some adaaptation issues in the majors would be totally understandable. if he hits .260/.340/.445 people should be happy. But he has a lot more than that in him once he gets his feet wet.

I think you are overvaluing him. He should be a good player, but not a great one, and there are lots of good outfielders out there.

Well he could use some Triple-A. I’d like to see him get a full shot in 2012.

I’d say 4th/5th starter.

considering many scouts prefer him to Bryce Harper, there is no doubt he’d be #1 in the Pirates system if drafted today.

Probably 1, might be 2 if Taillon really works out.

I think Morel is likely to hold the job.

Well his perofrmance in rookie ball was so-so, but rookie ball numbers aren’t particulary predictive. It is too early to conclude the money was wasted. But I don’t get the impression that people from other organizations think the pirates got huge value there.

I used to pay attention to college basketball but I really don’t have time any more.

I havent’ focused enough on the draft beyond the top guys to answer this. With the book done, I’m turning my attention to it now.

Solid, no doubt A

He’s OK but probably more of a role player, Cumberland has more upside if he stays healthy

I still like Neal and think he can be a solid regular. Not a star, but a solid player.

Cain is one of those guys who will hit .230 one year, and .290 the next, with power and OBP all over the map. His glove will keep him employed even when he’s not hitting well.

I haven’t heard anything recently….I know you follow the Tigers close, so if you’ve heard something recently I’d pay attention to it. I see him as a potentially useful role player but not a future star.

Sure, why not? I think he could be a number three or four starter.

Sale: starting rotation in Triple-A.
Kimbrel: Major league bullpen, not official closer but has the role by June

His changeup still needs some polish, but I think it is mostly a matter of experience and staying healthy.

they could both slot in the 50-60 range. I like Owens a little more I think.

Sure, if he’s heatlhy and fully recovered, why not?

Let’s see what spring health reports say. I have serious concerns about him.

Drafted in the second round last June from the University of Arkansas, Smyly can get up to 93 MPH but often works in the 87-89 range. He has a curveball, slider, and changeup, giving him a complete four-pitch arsenal. He did a good job throwing strikes in college, emerging as the ace of the Arkansas pitching staff. He’s not especially overpowering but scouts respect his command, and I think he projects as a good number three or four starter, assuming that his command remains intact against professional hitters. Grade B-.

No, the whole “comp” thing is something I’m growing less comfortable with. If Ackley develops properly he can be a .300 hitter with a very high OBP, some steals, 10-12 homers a year, and decent defense at second. Who does that sound like?

At this point I think he will be a decent player but not a star. Whether that’ due to injuries or not, I don’t know.

A Cuban defector, Hechavarria signed a major league contract with $10 million with the Blue Jays in early 2010. He looked like crap with the bat in the Florida State League, but was promoted to Double-A anyway and put up better (though still weak, -9 percent OPS) numbers there. He’s athletic and quick and looks like he should be a good hitter, but his strike zone judgment is poor and pitchers who know what they are doing can contain him. That might change as he gains experience; he’s only 22 to begin 2011. He does use his speed well on the bases. Right now his glove is well ahead of the bat: he has a cannon arm and good range, and should improve his reliability with more experience. I’m intrigued with his potential, and adjusting to North America from Cuba isn’t easy. But I am concerned that his weaknesses at the plate may override his other skills, granted it is too early to know for certain. Grade C+, with a wide range of possible outcomes.

He’ll never be a huge power guy but I don’t think he is punchless by any means.

One word I heard more than once from Midwest League observers about Hak-Ju Lee: smooth. Although he made 34 errors at shortstop and needs to improve his reliability, his range, hands, and arm strength are all very good, and he just looks smooth on the field. His speed is another asset; it is well above average, and he uses it very well, getting great jumps. Offensively, he makes contact and makes an effort to work the count, but his lack of power is a hindrance. I am often somewhat skeptical about players like this, but for some reason I am optimistic about Lee’s chances to develop into a more potent hitter than people currently anticipate. I have nothing objective to back that up, but I’m not going to back down on that feeling yet. He was traded in the off-season to the Rays as partial payment for Matt Garza. Grade B.

Very….clean, simple, easily repeatable smooth delivery, well above average stuff, good mound presence.

I hated the Yankees when I was a kid but don’t really have that emotion now. I am not much of a White Sox fan.

I have been doing this for 16 years and have never given anyone an A+.