2011 MLB Draft

by daveell on Jan 13, 2026 12:59 PM EST

I know that this upcoming draft is loaded. I know that it is deep as well. That said, how good does it appear to be? How many guys in this draft could have been top 5 picks in last year's draft? How many would be top 10 guys? For that matter, how many would have been 1st rounders? Are we talking 50 possibly? It's deeper in pitching than hitting from what I can tell(as of now) but is the hitting weaker than last year possibly? Haven't seen a draft thread on here in a while and was just curious and want some opinions on exactly how good this upcoming draft CAN be......

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Well...

there are 3 guys who go #1 most years. Purke, Cole, and Rendon. Around 5 guys who go top 5 most years. 20-30 guys who go top ten most years and I’m not going to really count them all but probably around 50 first round talents. It is one of the strongest classes ever…so far. This class looks really talent now, but that could change in the months leading up to the draft and will almost certainly change by the time most of these guys come close to the majors. It still would be nice to have multiple top 50 picks though. You could add A TON of talent to your system.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jan 13, 2026 1:14 PM EST reply actions

keep in mind some guys may opt to not come out in this draft

with loaded draft classes, some will opt to wait to come out so they can get drifted higher in another draft. that being said, teams have gotten much worse over the past couple of years about paying over slot bonuses, so we may not see as many guys drop out this year. this does seem to be shaping up to be a draft class to get very very excited about though

by rangersfan24 on Jan 13, 2026 1:19 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not sure what you're talking about honestly

The vast majority of the guys drafted in the top 10 rounds sign. College juniors have almost no incentive to go back to school unless they had very poor junior years and hope to reclaim lost prospect status. Draft eligible underclassmen are more likely to stay in school as they’ll still have leverage the following year, but someone like Purke would be nuts to not sign.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Jan 13, 2026 1:30 PM EST up reply actions

This...

and the fact that this may be the last draft without a hard slotting system. Players are gonna jump in at the opportunity to make potentially millions more this year. Brian Goodwin is an example of a player doing this.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jan 13, 2026 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

Brian Goodwin transfered because he was suspended for the season

And while I do expect them to go to hard slotting since Bud Selig wants it so badly, I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion. I’m still hoping that the only change made is moving up the deadline a month or two.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Jan 13, 2026 1:46 PM EST up reply actions

+1

by mr. maniac on Jan 13, 2026 1:58 PM EST up reply actions

I know he was suspended....

but you can’t tell me the slotting system didn’t factor into it. Why transfer from UNC just because of a suspension. He would have to be crazy. He is going from a draft where he is a possible #1 to a draft in which he might now even go top 5. Not to mention he would still have another year which could have possibly been a college championship year. I am not gonna argue because I might b completely wrong, but it would make no sense to me if that was his thinking.

They have talked about adding the hard slotting for years, but I think it ends up happening. MLB is getting ridiculous with over slot signings. I don’t really want it either because my team is finally spending, but I still think it will. If it were me I would go with hard slotting for the first 3 rounds or so and thats it. I would also move up the deadline.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jan 13, 2026 2:45 PM EST up reply actions

Not sure I follow

If he didn’t transfer, he’d have missed an entire season of baseball, and UNC will do everything they can to get him to come back in 2012 if he doesn’t sign.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Jan 13, 2026 3:04 PM EST up reply actions

You make changing schools sound way too easy...

but why even change if thats the case? Why not just sit out a year and get better with UNC coaches than have to work out with a CC? I am sure he loves baseball and all, but a suspension doesn’t exactly mean he is going to be away from it. It doesn’t make much sense to me if he is doing it purely because of the suspension. What is he gaining from going CC except playing against lesser competition? He could put up monster number and he wouldn’t gain anything because he is expected to kill the ball there. The only thing he really gains is a chance to enter a year early. It doesn’t really matter though. He will likely end up getting drafted early this year and signing. BTW, what exactly is the suspension for? I never really looked in to why he was.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jan 13, 2026 4:48 PM EST up reply actions

I'm sure the draft played some part, but he wouldn't have transfered if he hadn't been suspended

I don’t think it was a conscious decision to transfer in order to enter the draft before the new CBA is agreed upon. In the press release announcing the suspension it said he intends to return for 2012.

Academic reasons was the reason given.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Jan 13, 2026 5:48 PM EST up reply actions

I'm sure a UNC writer...

would say he is coming back. I can’t see it. He is going to be offered too much money. I personally wouldn’t have transfered. Sitting out a year would show something of his character. I don’t know if I want to draft a kid who is willing to give up when something doesn’t go his way. He is still a top talent though so he will still be drafted high, be offered a lot of money, and sign at the deadline.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jan 13, 2026 7:58 PM EST up reply actions

Oh, I can just about guarantee he won't play college baseball in 2012

But I also have no doubts that his 2012 commitment will be UNC. I don’t see any baseball prospect sitting out a year when he has an option to play elsewhere. I don’t see it as giving up at all, and frankly, I would have questioned his commitment to baseball had he not transferred to a JuCo.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Jan 13, 2026 8:03 PM EST up reply actions

I agree....

but I see him sitting out as good. It shows he is committed to an organization and he is wiilling to pay for hi mistakes. I don’t want a player looking for the easy way out. I want a player who will make the best out of his suffering. If Goodwin would have stayed at UNC and came back the next year much stronger as a player he would have looked like exactly the kind of player I want on my team. Maybe I am just more old school than you, but any player who shows commitment, toughness, and his kind of talent is all but perfect.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jan 13, 2026 8:13 PM EST up reply actions

id rather see a guy

who wants to improve rather than take a year off from playing games….although, i may be weird, i vaue baseball skills far more than character

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 13, 2026 9:07 PM EST up reply actions

We already know he has the skills...

it’s obvious, but people don’t take character as seriously as they should. Like I said, if Brian Goodwin takes the year off and comes back stronger than ever, what does that say about him? He is commited, responsible, and will find ways to get better even if he isn’t allowed to play. If you don’t like players like that fine, but I wish there were more of them in the game today.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jan 13, 2026 9:35 PM EST up reply actions

the odds of him being stronger than ever next year....

are better with him playing. And I think it shows a ton of character to be willing to leave the pampered life of a D1 athlete in order to go to a JUCO to play. Less tutoring, worse looking girls, worse field conditions, worse partying, etc

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 13, 2026 11:37 PM EST up reply actions

That is not m point...

and yes you are right. The odds are better for him to get better if he plays. It would take a truly hard worker to get better in a year he was suspended. Also, about the girls, he is a top athlete that should have no problem getting girls. If he does than he will be having the same problem no matter where he went. He is still gonna have it pretty easy in JUCO ball.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jan 14, 2026 7:12 AM EST up reply actions

UNC girls are different than juco girls

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 14, 2026 7:19 AM EST up reply actions

according to tucker max

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 14, 2026 7:21 AM EST up reply actions

i'm a UNC grad

and know a fair amount of athletic people. the guys’ not coming back.

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Jan 14, 2026 2:04 AM EST up reply actions

sit out a year?

why would he EVER do that? This is is life, his career, his future, his profession we are talking about. He stays at UNC and he closes off and limits his options. What if he stays and falls even further out of favor? What if he stays and puts up a disappointing junior year?
Going to the JUCO his situation is under his control. If he goes there and gets drafted in the 1st round he can begin his pro career, which is his ultimate goal anyway. He goes there and doesn’t get picked in a round that he likes he can always return to UNC or another top DI program.
He handled his situation as good as he could by giving himself the opportunity to test pro waters while not closing off the possibility to return to UNC

by ScottAZ on Jan 14, 2026 10:47 AM EST up reply actions

Ok...

now what happens if he goes to JUCO ball and gets hurt? What if he underperforms. What if he still has problems with his grades? I would expect him to do what he did. That is part of the problem. It would look better if he honored his commitment and worked out at UNC to get better while working out his problems with his grades. I don’t really have any problem with the whole situation. I am just expressing my take on what he should have done. He is a good player and I wish the best for him, but that doesn’t mean I agree with all his choices.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jan 14, 2026 11:57 AM EST up reply actions

I hope you're not being serious

I really can’t believe you’re being serious in suggesting that somebody’s future as a professional baseball player would actually be enhanced by NOT playing baseball. All of those things COULD happen whether he was at UNC, a community college, or Western Siberia University.

Technically, the “commitment” that these players make is for four years, which is a commitment that most pro prospects don’t adhere to. What Goodwin is doing is nothing personal. Lots of players transfer to different programs for a variety of reasons, and it doesn’t affect their prognosis at all. Nobody questions their level of commitment to becoming a better player.

In any case, I doubt anybody’s going to freak too much about Goodwin’s numbers. He is a toolshed who was drafted in the 3rd round out of HS on the basis of that potential, and he would have gone much higher had he actually been signable. If the tools show up, he’s basically a best of both worlds option for teams who like raw potential but who also put a premium on players from big programs with experience against elite competition.

by mrkupe on Jan 14, 2026 12:33 PM EST up reply actions

ummm, let's be honest here

he was suspended from the team AND the school and then decided to transfer to improve his draft stock.

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Jan 14, 2026 2:03 AM EST up reply actions

i was referring more to the high school guys and underclassmen

i did not say “a lot” did i? i said “some”. i dont how you can say you dont know what im talking about and follow that up with “Draft eligible underclassmen are more likely to stay in school as they’ll still have leverage the following year”. this is EXACTLY what i was referring to, and i am pretty sure i wasnt making an argument for college juniors. joegonzo below brings up a very good point- with the possibility of a hard slotting system looming on the horizon, most will come out for the draft. purke and cole will definitely sign. both have already come out once and did not sign

by rangersfan24 on Jan 13, 2026 2:14 PM EST up reply actions

Because the percentage of draft eligible underclassmen is relatively small

And most of them sign.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Jan 13, 2026 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

ok, by saying most

you are acknowledging “some” will not. that is all i said to begin with. i didnt say a lot, i didnt say several, nothing of that sort. having 4,5,6 top guys pull a gerrit cole can completely change the draft. thats all it takes. do you need me to define “some” for you? geez

by rangersfan24 on Jan 13, 2026 2:26 PM EST reply actions

reply fail

my bad

by rangersfan24 on Jan 13, 2026 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

i mean this happens in every draft

and all i was trying to get across was that having a few guys not sign can take down the quality of a draft a notch or two. thats it

by rangersfan24 on Jan 13, 2026 2:33 PM EST up reply actions

Then I guess I misread your statement

Most of the HS guys that are drafted high that don’t sign aren’t doing it because of the money though.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Jan 13, 2026 3:06 PM EST up reply actions

well, theres a number of reasons

with purke it was more because of the money, but you are dead on with cole. he got drafted by his favorite team and still told them he wouldnt sign no matter what they offered. i dont think well see much if any of that this year. i wasnt thinking about impending changes to the slotting system when i first posted….

by rangersfan24 on Jan 13, 2026 3:08 PM EST up reply actions

From what I've read

Purke had a pre-draft agreement for an overslot deal, but then the Rangers ran into money issues and MLB wouldn’t give them the money for the overslot deal (Could be wrong on that though).

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Jan 13, 2026 3:11 PM EST up reply actions

if thats the case

im gonna be pissed. we missed out on great prospect. friggin tom hicks…

by rangersfan24 on Jan 13, 2026 3:16 PM EST up reply actions

Yea....

I also read that’s what happened. It sucks. Purke and Martin Perez would have given the Rangers a set of elite lefty prospects.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jan 13, 2026 4:50 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I heard that too

6M, IIRC

"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
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by Gobroks on Jan 13, 2026 7:05 PM EST up reply actions

Perez is not elite, but I get the point.

by mr. maniac on Jan 13, 2026 10:23 PM EST up reply actions

He is still pretty young...

and needs to prove some things but I consider him elite. I LOVE his stuff. Top 3 in all the minors in pure stuff for a lefty.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jan 13, 2026 10:43 PM EST up reply actions

With Moore and Chapman?

Can anyone find that bad report on his stuff? I thought there were a few of them…..

by mr. maniac on Jan 14, 2026 10:19 AM EST up reply actions

Yea....

I haven’t heard more than one place criticizing his stuff. Either way, it would have been a good lefty combo.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jan 14, 2026 11:59 AM EST up reply actions

i dont think thats entirely accurate

hes ranked the 11th best pitching prospect on this site despite his disappointing year for a reason. he is an elite talent. whether or not he will live up to it is a different issue, one that can be said about ANY prospect, but perez does have elite talent

by rangersfan24 on Jan 14, 2026 12:12 PM EST up reply actions

Milwaukee has 2 very high picks

They can reload very quickly if they don’t go cheap

by LCT on Jan 13, 2026 3:23 PM EST reply actions

And if they don’t pull a trade will get a 1st rd and Supp 1st from Fielder.

by John Kelly on Jan 13, 2026 3:43 PM EST up reply actions

in the 2012 draft

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 13, 2026 4:25 PM EST up reply actions

What amazes me is Tampa. They don’t start picking until the 24th selection, but they then have 7-8 selections in the top 50 picks in the deepest draft in recent memory. When I started trying to rank the players, I kept trying to rearrange b/c level of talent outside the first round is unbelievable.

by oneill681 on Jan 13, 2026 3:46 PM EST up reply actions

Here is all the Rays picks as of now

First Round
24. Rays (from Red Sox for Carl Crawford, Type A)
32. Rays
Supp. First Round
38. Rays (Crawford)
50. Rays (for Joaquin Benoit, Type B, to Tigers)
54. Rays (for Randy Choate, Type B, to Marlins)
57. Rays (for Brad Hawpe, Type B, to Padres)
Remaining Type A Free Agents: RP Rafael Soriano and RP Grant Balfour (if they sign with another team the Rays would get that teams first rounder and a first round supp pick. Unless that teams first round pick is protected then the Rays would get that teams second round pick)
Remaining Type B Free Agents RP Chad Qualls (if he signs with another team the Rays would receive a Supp first round pick)
So there is the potential for the Rays to add another 5 picks to their draft if these guys were to all sign elsewhwhere.

by Pup Dog on Jan 13, 2026 5:57 PM EST up reply actions

Padres are apparently about to sign Qualls

by Gobroks on Jan 13, 2026 7:06 PM EST up reply actions

gotta love a system that gives teams a draft pick for losing Randy Choate.

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix

by doublestix on Jan 13, 2026 7:09 PM EST up reply actions

and Brad Hawpe

by hrv2010 on Jan 13, 2026 9:12 PM EST up reply actions

And Chad Qualls

by Gobroks on Jan 14, 2026 2:10 AM EST up reply actions

Dumb question, but how does compensation work when a team signs two type A free agents in the same year? For example, if the Red Sox were to sign Rafael Soriano, would Boston have to sacrifice their first rounder in 2012?

by oneill681 on Jan 14, 2026 12:46 AM EST up reply actions

higher rated player gets the better compensation

The formula used computes a numerical value for each player. If the pick to be lost isn’t available, the compensation is instead the next highest round pick the team has available (i.e. not a supplemental/compensation pick). Since the Red Sox have signed Crawford from the Rays, they lost their first rounder. If they were to sign Soriano, the Red Sox would then lose their second rounder to the Rays as well. If Soriano played for a non-TBay team, you’d have to look at which player was the higher rated Type A. The team with the higher rated player gets the first rounder, the other team gets the second rounder.

So yes, Boston could conceivably sign 5 type A free agents, lose their picks for the first 5 rounds (not including compensation or supplemental picks) of the next draft, and then be completely fine the next year. We don’t see these weird situations so much any more now that Type B free agents don’t require the loss of a first rounder, but we haven’t had a truly incredibly FA class lately, either.

by mrkupe on Jan 14, 2026 12:54 AM EST up reply actions

yanks lost their top 3 when they signed tex, cc and burnett

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 14, 2026 4:34 AM EST up reply actions

And they get get the Yank's #31 + a supplemental pick now for Soriano.

by quacker27 on Jan 14, 2026 5:36 AM EST up reply actions

AND

They get the Oakland 2nd rounder + another supplemental with the loss of Grant Balfour to the A’s.

cue furious A’s fan reactions to losing a pick for a 2 year commitment to a guy who has never gotten to 68 innings in a major league season

by mrkupe on Jan 14, 2026 12:38 PM EST up reply actions

The Nats got the 6,23, and 34 picks

Time to add some juice to that farm system.

Be real with yourself.

by Daggerrrrrr on Jan 13, 2026 5:02 PM EST reply actions

They could end next year...

with one of the better farm systems iin baseball. If guys like Harper, Cole, Morris, Norris, Kimball, and Solis all impress combined with a top pick this year like Gray and another good player with their second pick like Zach Cone or Mike Mahtook they could have an impreesive looking system.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jan 13, 2026 5:22 PM EST up reply actions

I was thinking Sonny Gray, Danny Hultzen, Jason Esposito

Be real with yourself.

by Daggerrrrrr on Jan 13, 2026 6:08 PM EST up reply actions

Not bad...

I’m not the biggest Esposito fan, but he is a first round prospect and could easily fall. I don’t think Hultzen reaches 23 though. Somone is gonna like his left arm too much. He may be the second best college lefty.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jan 13, 2026 8:08 PM EST up reply actions

Man! I would love for the Nats to have a rotation of

Strasburg, Zimmermann, Gray, Hultzen, Solis WOW! Who needs Zack Greinke.

Be real with yourself.

by Daggerrrrrr on Jan 13, 2026 8:37 PM EST up reply actions

I really hope the Pirates spend...

more next year than ever. I want Rendon in the 1st and a high upside HS guy like Blake Swihart or Tyler Beede in the second. That would be another great draft to add to a system who could be close to top 5 if some of their latest HS arm draft picks breakout. We could potentially have the best top 2 prospects next year if Rendon stays healthy and Taillon pitches like he is supposed to.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jan 13, 2026 5:27 PM EST reply actions

Unless he underwhelms

I can’t see Swihart falling out of the first round. You’re better off hoping Archie Bradley floats a huge number and he falls Stetson Allie style.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Jan 13, 2026 5:50 PM EST up reply actions

I can't see him falling that far...

he has the stuff and there has been no “future reliever” label put on him. I see someone taking him early. He is a better talent than Allie as of now. The only thing that scares me is him wanting to stick with football. Oklahoma QB would be a tough gig to pass up. I see Swihart falling because teams seem to shy away from HS backstops. They just fail too often. I would take Beede happily though if neither of these two fall.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jan 13, 2026 8:06 PM EST up reply actions

2011 > 2008

This draft is going to blow away the 2008 draft in terms of top flight talent IMO. I can’t recall when a draft was this stacked. 2008 and 2005 come to mind. I really think the top 3 this year could go up against almost any top 3 in any other draft class in terms of how they were thought of when coming out. Either way I can tell you that I will be stacking up on picks in my rookie draft for this year in my dynasty league.

by Dr Mcsexy on Jan 13, 2026 9:27 PM EST reply actions

I think it's about equal between this class and 2005...

A group of Upton, Zimmerman, Braun, Tulo, Romero, Pelfrey, McCutchen, Bruce, Ellsbury, Garza, Rasmus, Hanson, Jackson, Garcia, Buchholz and probably even few more is hard to top. That is an amazing draft. All of the guys I make will probably make multiple all star appearances. We can only hope this draft is as good.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jan 13, 2026 9:42 PM EST up reply actions