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Intriguing Low-end AL Starting Pitching Sleepers

Scott Feldman - Many will write his 17-win 2009, but based on Pedrophile's scouting report, he may be for real.  He has a low-90s fastball with good location, a great cutter, and a good change, with a curve and slider in the works.  Still, his K/BB was pedestrian and plays half his games in a hitters paradise.

Gio Gonzalez - Has struggled with consistency in majors despite good minors numbers and great K rates at any level.  This spring he has shown a lot of the same, though it wouldn't take that much more control or consistency to give him value for Ks alone.  The great outfield D should help him some, but he may not start the season in the rotation at all.

C.J. Wilson - One of the more intriguing guys that everyone will probably forget, he's gonna be the Rangers 5th starter.  He'll have to perform to not get the axe when Feliz and/or Holland come knocking, but Wilson has quality stuff and if it translates well to the rotation he could be a solid starter, perhaps doing a Justin Duchscherer impression (hopefully minus the injuries).  I'm really curious to see what the Minorleagueball community projects for him in 2010.

Colby Lewis - Yes, another Texas pitcher.  He dominated in Japan and has always had great potential, and ratings systems ZIPS, CHONE love him, but it remains to be seen how he'll transition from Japan to the AL West in a big homer ballpark and all of the factors that go with that, including confidence.  He's 30 already and has yet to have a successful stint in the majors, but would make for a nice comeback story.

Fausto Carmona - After his stellar 19-win campaign in 2007, has struggled with his walk rate the past 2 seasons and fell off the face of the planet, getting demoted to single-A.  But he's lost a lot of weight and has been showing much better control in the VWL and spring training.  He still has the power stuff for great GB rates that would make it okay for him to not have a high K rate and still succeed, but expectations should be tempered as he was horrible in 08 and 09.

Ryan Rowland-Smith - More of a safe pick than some of the other guys on this list, but he has had an under-4 ERA the past 2 years even if his K rate is rather average.  Still, he's a flyball pitcher on a team with great outfield defense and will likely get more run support this year as well.

Vin Mazzaro - Unlikely to open the season in the rotation, but with both Sheets and Duchscherer in the rotation, may get another chance soon when injuries arise.  He has a good low-90s heater and is still young enough to improve on his first stint (which if you remember, created quite a buzz of him being an ace after his red-hot start before cooling off fast).

EDIT: I'm now including one sleeper I forgot to mention, thanks DFarth, hope you don't mind me borrowing from you.  He may be a bit down in the votes since I added him late.

Matt Harrison - The former solid prospect has struggled mostly in his past stints with Texas, but the lefty has lost 30 pounds added some serious velocity this spring after missing a good chunk of last year with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, with his fastball consistently 92-94 topping out at 97, and has been fairly dominant in his spring appearances.  He's also now adding a cutter, and is only 24 years old so his upside is quite high with these new developments.  I honestly had barely had him on my radar before, what are your thoughts  on him?

Poll
Which one of these low-end AL-only starting pitchers will put together the best season overall in 2010?

  192 votes | Results

0 recs  |  Comment 15 comments  |  Add comment

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Gio

Although I don’t like any of these guys. Lewis is a close second based on what I’ve read.

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by cwhitman412 on Mar 22, 2026 8:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re:

Tough call. Feldman, Wilson, Lewis, and Gio all have pretty similar value to me.

I’ll say this — I think the other Rangers pitcher that you didn’t mention is a good option as well. Harrison had something like a 21 inning scoreless streak last year before injuring his shoulder — so he was already showing signs of success as a 23 year old. While rehabbing his shoulder he lost 30 pounds and is now throwing 2-3 mph harder than last year. In his last spring appearance, he struck out 7 of the first 8 batters he faced and his fastball was clocked as high as 97 (consistently 92-94).

Like most of the other Rangers pitchers, he is now throwing a cutter which is now one of his best pitches. And mid-90s from the left side is pretty devastating…

by Dfarth on Mar 22, 2026 9:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

EDIT

Hey, thanks for catching that one. Harrison is definitely at least as exciting as some of these other guys. I know control has always been a bigger issue for him than stuff, so while it’s exciting that he is more dominant, I hope he can keep pounding the strike zone consistently over a full season.

The Rangers are definitely going to be my team to root for this year, obviously the rotation is high risk but there’s a lot of cause for excitement down in Arlington. I’d rather have these high-upside question-marks than the reliable mediocrity that they used to stock their rotation with.

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by The Congo Hammer on Mar 22, 2026 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gio/Mazzaro, and Wilson may be serviceable…uninspiring list names? One deep league AL starter I like a lot is Shaun Marcum.

by St.Steve on Mar 22, 2026 9:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i don't think marcum

qualifies as a “deep league starter”.

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Mar 23, 2026 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i was thinking the same thing

As for Bergesen, he still had a strong showing in 2009, but I don’t think his upside matches the guys on this list, even if they are low-end in their own right. I’d be very cautious throwing around a Derek Lowe comp for him.

The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!

by The Congo Hammer on Mar 23, 2026 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

if you check out his ADP, he more than qualifies.

by St.Steve on Mar 23, 2026 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Brad Bergesen

Has the chance to be a decent pitcher. I know he doesn’t have the best defense behind him, but he is a ground ball machine. I listened to all his games pitched last year and he gets the double play ball when needed alot. He is a young version{although maybe not quite as good} Derrick Lowe.

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Mar 22, 2026 10:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Kevin Slowey

I’d probably classify him as a sleeper given his injury last year, but he was well on his way to a break out season until the wrist problem flared up. He’s having a good spring, and I could see him popping out 15 plus wins with an ERA between 3.5 and 3.8. The guy gets plenty of Ks and does not walk many.

by diehardtwinsfan on Mar 23, 2026 10:25 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Carmona

I have always liked Carmona for some reason and it has been hard to see him struggle the last couple years. His spring has been fantastic so far and I think he has the best chance to put together a big bounce-back year

by jepmotors on Mar 23, 2026 10:30 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Lewis

He really tore apart Japanese hitters the last couple years, and all the projection systems love him due to his impressive ratios. Sure his HR allowed may increase, but none of those AL West offenses really scare me much. I like Lewis quite a bit for 2010.

by guru4u on Mar 23, 2026 11:53 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Why mostly AL west pitchers?

Anyways, i’m a bit optimistic on Gio which has finally shown an improved changeup which seems to have been years in progress. But it looks like Cahill is the front runner for that #5 spot. Unless more injuries which is possible gio and mazzaro will be waiting for a chance

by MagicMike23 on Mar 23, 2026 12:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Mark Rzep

I don’t hear a lot of talk about him, but I happen to like him a decent bit. Lots of K’s, although the walks are a concern, but that groundball right is really nice as well.

He jumped up to the majors with little time above AA, and he still looked quite good. I’m very curious to see what he does this season

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by Jgaztambide on Mar 23, 2026 12:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

I know the scouts don’t love his stuff,, but the groundball and K combo is nice. A littl more control and he could be a nice #3 guy Say he hits ratios of 55% groundball rate, 7 K’s and 3 BB’s per 9, that would be a solid pitcher.

"God, I'm from Cleveland. When is it going to be our time?"

by BStal11 on Mar 23, 2026 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs


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