Discussion Question: Two Pitching Prospects
by John Sickels on Mar 21, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
39 comments
Discussion Question:
Without looking up who these guys are, which of these prospects do you think is better?
Prospect A: Right-handed pitcher, 6-2, 205 pounds, 23 years old, reached Triple-A late last year, career minor league 1.70 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 8.5 H/9 in 138 innings, 52.4% career ground ball percentage, 2.90 career minor league FIP, 90-94 MPH sinker, impressive-if-erratic slider, working on changeup, good level of athleticism, no history of injury.
Prospect B: Right-handed pitcher, 6-1, 190 pounds, 22 years old, highest level Double-A, career minor league 3.71 ERA with 7.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 8.1 H/9 in 268 innings, 45.6% career ground ball percentage, 3.44 career minor league FIP, 89-93 MPH fastball that can hit 94 at times, strong curveball, working on changeup, better overall athlete than Prospect A, significant injury history.
You can guess/discuss who they are in the thread, but answer the poll question before reading the thread and try to base your answer only on the information presented.
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for some reason I had a hunch it would be this duo before I started reading
I’d say that one fairly important distinction that was not mentioned is that Prospect A compiled a good chunk of his career stats working out of the bullpen. His career K/9 as a starter is actually a bit lower than Prospect B’s career K/9.
by jibs on Mar 21, 2026 8:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I didn't know that about the two
Was leaning toward choice #1.
How significant is B’s injury history?
by Conjunction on Mar 21, 2026 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ooh, relief innings.
I should have guessed that about Pitcher A. Not a lot of innings for a healthy 23-year-old.
I might have gone with Pitcher B had I known that he had shown more dominance as a starter. It sounds like A has a good developing power arsenal but B has a better secondary offering at a younger age.
by whichthat on Mar 21, 2026 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I think this is as much an exercise in how stats can be misleading than it is in how people can be influenced by names. Their career paths are so different too … one basically having little to no track record before last season and the other having a lot of experience out of the bullpen dominating he lower minors. If you compare their #s as SPs, Prospect B gets the edge in #s and Prospect B still holds the edge in health. But when you start comparing overall #s, including one guy’s stats as an 18/19yo vs the other guys #s in A- ball as a RP out of college … that’s not exactly a fair comparison in my books.
Overall I’d agree its closer than a lot of people suggest. But the #s are very misleading.
by jayjay on Mar 21, 2026 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry
I meant to say B holds edge in #s as a SP but A holds the edge in health.
by jayjay on Mar 21, 2026 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Clearly Prospect A is better based on the stats
Would be interested in hearing scouting reports though.
by guru4u on Mar 21, 2026 9:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Prospect B
Because prospect evaluation isnt about stats in the minor leageus. Its about stuff, upside and potential.
Player A is a nice player, but only projects as a middle inning reliever at best. Player B, despite the injury risk, has better stuff, could wind up in the middle of the rotation or back of the bullpen.
Its all about impact talent. Player A does not have impact stuff.
by backtocali on Mar 21, 2026 9:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Disagree
I’d take Prospect A ……9 times out of 10
Regardless of whether I need a releiver or a starter
I was going to say prospect “A” is/was Anthony Slama RP of the Twins
but 2 things can’t be true to fit there -1 Age, Slama’s gotta be 25 -and 2 K/ IP Slama’s is about 10.25 per 9 IP.
*Even though once John reveals the names Prospect “B” will likely be the better player in ALL OUR Eyes……
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Mar 21, 2026 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know...
they are not too far off in my opinion, but player b is the better player.
by joegonzo on Mar 21, 2026 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're supposed to vote only based on the information presented.
So, good job NOT actually reading the vote before voting.
by PissedMick on Mar 21, 2026 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Player A...
doesn’t have impact stuff. His cieleing is actually higher than player B’s ceiling. Also, he is going to be a starter from now on.
by joegonzo on Mar 21, 2026 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Based on the info given above
Prospect A is obviously the correct answer. You’d be insane to take B. A has a better K/BB/GB rate and a much better injury history, with comparable stuff.
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by marcello on Mar 22, 2026 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
B
Leanings towards it being Kyle Drabek.
by blindsided789 on Mar 21, 2026 10:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's what I am thinking
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by Gobroks on Mar 21, 2026 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Prospect B
Is Kyle Drabek?
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by eyerule12 on Mar 21, 2026 10:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nah
No way Drabek has logged that many innings.
Touch em all Joe...
by FisherCat on Mar 21, 2026 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you sure?
but everywhere I look he is listed as 6 foot even and not 190 pounds.
by joegonzo on Mar 21, 2026 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Relievers vs. starters
It feels like we’re missing a lot of information here, but I’m going with B. I’ll tend to take the starter in the minors, even with the injury risk.
Pitcher A is like Mark Melancon, a Yankees prospect (No, I don’t think he literally IS Mark Melancon, who’s a year older) as a reliever. Solid guy, should be a nice contributor out of the pen. A 6 or 7th inning reliever. Not a high enough K rate to get truly excited about.
Pitcher B projects out a bit better as a reliever than Pitcher A currently is, in my opinion. The team obviously still feels he has a shot at being a back of the rotation starter, and that’s going to always be more valuable than a setup man.
It’s hard to read much into total stats lines. Starters tend to wear down in the minors toward the end of the season, whereas relievers don’t. It’s obvious Pitcher B isn’t yet ready for the majors, he’s probably 1.5-2 years away.
I’d rather have Pitcher B, let him take his shot getting to the majors as a starter, and then fall back with the plan of him being a reliever, if this year goes badly or he shows signs of being unable to handle a starters workload.
by footballstu on Mar 21, 2026 10:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
guesses
a - zach stewart
b - drabek
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by gore51 on Mar 21, 2026 11:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thats the first thing I thought too.
by metafour on Mar 21, 2026 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup, that’s immediately what I thought too. Puts into perspective just how underrated Stewart is.
by PhillyFriar on Mar 21, 2026 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly...
Stewart deserves more credit.
by joegonzo on Mar 21, 2026 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I immediately thought Kyle Drabek for B as well.
by byronlhsdrmr on Mar 21, 2026 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so is about projection not stats?
Isn’t prospect A a bigger guy? that has to count for something.
by jahs34 on Mar 21, 2026 11:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If it's Stewart and Drabek
I guess John has made a convincing point on why he values Stewart more then Drabek. Nice.
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by achengy on Mar 21, 2026 2:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Actually, John gave each a B+ rating
I think John’s point will be that they are of roughly equal value even though Drabek gets much more attention in main stream media. I think two major factors unrelated to their baseball skills contribute to this:
(1) Drabek is the son of a great pitcher and so got a lot of attention from the get-go - all-american, player of the year in Texas, first round draft choice. Stewart didn’t get that level of early acclaim and was a third-rounder. Both started in the pros in 2008 but Stewart first made John’s book in 2009; Drabek was in 2007 and 2008 as well.
(2) Drabek was the biggest direct haul in the Roy Halliday trade (with Taylor being turned over for Wallace). The trade for Stewart just wasn’t close to a trade of that magnitude.
I can tell you as someone in Ontario a couple of hours from Toronto, there has been much more ink about Drabek than Stewart. I look forward to keeping an eye on both.
by Rotofan on Mar 21, 2026 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stewart A and Drabek B seem like the guys.
I think the innings mark is the kicker, if you mentioned player A enjoyed his upper level success working in relief, then I think that would change a few votes.
by daman316 on Mar 21, 2026 2:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I Also Think
That if you said player B was a first round draft pick and highly regarded, performing extremely well with a high strikeout rate in A+ ball in his first full season, before tiring late, he’d win some votes back too.
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by cwhitman412 on Mar 21, 2026 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
John,
I love these blind either/or questions. These are things I’d love to see again and regularly.
by byronlhsdrmr on Mar 21, 2026 10:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
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by Figgi4life on Mar 22, 2026 12:03 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Prospect B
I’m very very very wary of pitchers with only 1 truly refined pitch. While prospect A is seemingly the better bet for consistent solid production, it has a good chance of coming out of the bullpen (regardless of the fact that it is Stewart or not) while prospect B is a more solid lock to be a starter in the long term. Future role is a huge factor in these decisisons, and while Stewart’s fastball is very good, and his slider flashes plus plus, even his second pitch is erratic as was mentioned, and until I see the slider gain consistency, I’m not about to project his changeup to develop. I just find that prospect A is too far away in regards to pitch development to be a solid bet as a starter in the long run, and given the specific “injury history” on prospect B, I prefer prospect B even before knowing their names.
by Navi's_Navy on Mar 22, 2026 1:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think that a fair number of votes would chnage
if we knew prospect A was used as a reliever and what prospect B’s injury history was. If it was TJ I don’t think there would be a major concern over the injury history
The only real problem I have with B is that his fastball works around 89-94. If he loses a few mph it would make him vulnerable. It also probably depends on the type of fastball because if it’s a sinker or 2-seam I would feel more comfortable with it
by OsandRoyals on Mar 22, 2026 7:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Haven't looked to see guesses.
I’d go with Prospect A. Higher K rate, GB rate, lower BB rate… seems to have fairly equal fastball, if not better, slider is great when its on, and developing a 3rd pitch.
Prospect B has a lower K rate at lower levels, higher BB rate but a better H/9 ratio. Prospect B is a fly ball pitcher. Probably going to have a few HR issues at some point if his big league club has a bandbox.
Gotta go with the better GB rate, K rate, and BB rate.
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by 306008 on Mar 22, 2026 10:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Drabek
With all due respect to John; Blue Jay’s GM Alex Anthopolous has mentioned that Drabek has been hitting 97mph and looking so good that people within the organization have been telling him that it will be hard to keep him from the majors this year given how good he has looked.
by metafour on Mar 22, 2026 4:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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