And I’m a Cubs fan.

He’s an intriguing case in terms of how to rank a player. I am honestly not a fan of going so heavy on projection when a guy gets to AA. I had problems ranking Fernando Martinez and Jose Tabata to a certain extent, as both guys, in AA, were still heavy projection guy. That said, them’s the draw with Castro. He simply is that young and with a lot of projection to go. Is he overhyped? Without a doubt. That isn’t a bad thing. He still is a youngster with good projection that has stayed afloat at A+/AA, along with good reports of his work ethic and ability to pick up things. Grading him on the now doesn’t do him justice, either.

I can buy a B or a B+. If you believe that he has good lateral range and can stick at short, and that his discipline will get better with age, along with some power development, then he probably should be a B+. If you question if the power will come and are curious how his physical maturation might impact him (there’s been reports both ways - some Cubs folks have suggested that he could add 15 more pounds without losing athleticism), then a B might be more approrpiate. I lean to him as a B+ for now, but a low B+ and an upside B+ at that. I do think he is the clearcut #1 prospect in the system, with the bigger question for me being Brett Jackson, Jay Jackson, Andrew Cashner, or Josh Vitters at number 2.

Young Australian, pitched well in A+

Searle - Very solid 2-seam, secodnary pitches need work but showed improvement. I’d give him a C+ on account of what he did in A+ along with upside. There’s some character concerns, but I’d give him time on that.

Cerda - He’s been moved to 3rd for now, according toAzPhil, and as such, I have a hard time ranking him higher than a C. I can’t really see him on a top 40 …

Darvil - I’m a big fan and he’s a curious case to judge. Right now, great athelticism. Plus speed, power projection exists. That said, average arm, and some believe he will have to shift to 2nd as he gets bigger. In short, he seems like a possible Ryan Flaherty if he matures. I’d give him a C, and much as I am intrigued, I don’t have him in my top 40 either.

Bruce Mles indicated that at midseason. THe issue is how much power he can develop, and several reports suggest that it’s quite minimal without completely reworking his swing. He doesn’t move laterally all that well to stick at short, though.

Do any of them have any power? I understand that you don’t need to be a big home run hitter as a middle infielder, but I’m not sure how any of these guys (Castro, LeMahieu, Lee, Watkins) can be above average middle infielders without walking or hitting for any power.

Of course they’re all young, and have time to develop, but I can’t get too excited yet

suggest that the Cubs are fairly high on DJ. There’s been some speculation that he might be fast-traced to AA, but that seems to have tapered off a bit (then again, no one’s going to make decisions until spring). The problem is his power. He did n’t show it at LSU, and there’s little indication so far that it can develop without changing his swing. In his case, he has such good contact ability that, as long as he has some gap power, I’d be wary of changing his swing. As for most Cubs rankings I’ve seen, he’s usually in that 11-15 area.

I don’t really blame Wilken on that 2006 draft (and you don’t actually blame him). He was missing too many picks, and he took a guy a half-round early likely because he liked him and did not have those extra picks. Led to a lot of overslots later, most not succedding up til now.

I’m also fascinated by Wilken’s seeming attempt to target projectable collegians. Granted, all players are projectable to some extent, but he has gone after some guys that were relatively raw colelgians.

that didn’t really respond to Guyer. I liked Guyer a lot last season, moreso than many, but his power problems this past year are a bit troubling. He probably projects, physically, to above average power, but it’s an odd fit. Add in that he can’t stick in CF, and if he doesn’t have above average power, then his value loses a lot. They had him working on his power stroke in fall, according to AzPhil, so that will be something to watch early in the year tat a potentially very intriguing AA Tennessee club.

Maybe toonster would know, but I might as well put this here. When exactly did the “Starlin Castro as a top prospect” hype start up?

The earliest such hype I’ve been able to find, oddly enough, is my own post from July 8 regarding the BA midseason top 25. And as it turned out, I apparently thought more highly of Castro at that point than BA. Keith Law apparently decided to go all-in on Castro, though . . .I really like Castro, but comparing a guy to Hanley Ramirez is nutty. Maybe the tools are comparable in some ways (although Hanley was much faster), but Hanley’s plate awareness went from a question mark to a strength as soon as he started caring about his competition, and he did that against major leaguers. Maybe Castro is capable of the same, but I certainly wouldn’t expect it, especially from a guy coming out of the Cubs system (which has been historically terrible at getting their prospects to develop plate discipline).

Burke has had back to back good seasons. The Cubs seem like a decently deep system with major questions at the top. I’d say maybe the Pirates system minus Pedro Alvarez at the top is a good comp. A lot of high upside guys and sleepers but no one truly elite. (Castro could be there but I’m not sold on him yet). Vitters has major questions as well.

Part 1
Part 2
Individual Rankings (Scroll Down)

I’ll probably throw a few tidbits into this thread later tonight. For the first time in awhile, I can actually talk about this system at length without resorting to complete unknowns and speculation.

That’d be more an indictment of other prospects in the system than a positive mark on Carpenter, not that Carpenter is bad.

I think that’s going to be a tough one for John to grade. He only got a few innings in during the regular season, after spending time to rehab. There were positive reports in the fall, though. There’s a case to be made for a draft pick/upside nod grade. On stuff/upside, based on last year and reports, he arguably is a top 5 or so prospect in the system. A good fb/breaking ball combination to go with his nasty split-change pitch. That said, there were questions even before the injury on whether or not he would be durable enough to stick as a starter. Some had thought that he would have to shift to the pen eventually.

I’d personally lean to a C+ and have him bunched in the 10-12 area, but others may feel more bold on his upside and slide him up some more (perhaps as high as 6), and yet others may feel tentative on the health/durability aspect and put him a tad below 12.