Top 50 PRE-SEASON Hitting Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Oct 14, 2025 9:00 AM EDT
84 comments
Here is the Top 50 PRE-SEASON Hitting Prospects list from the 2009 book. Remember, this was the PRE-SEASON list. I always do a post-mortem on the list every year to see how things panned out.
Top 50 Hitting Prospects for 2009
1) Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles
Hit .288/.340/.412 in 96 games for the Orioles. He was hot late in the season and I still expect him to be an excellent player. The power will come.
2) Travis Snider, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Hit .241/.328/.419 for the Blue Jays in 77 games, hit .337/.431/.663 at Triple-A Las Vegas. Just needs a little more time.
3) Lars Anderson, 1B, Boston Red Sox
Hit .233/.328/.345 in 119 games for Double-A Portland. A disastrous season. See player comment for more details.
4) Colby Rasmus, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Hit .251/.307/.407 in 147 games for the Cardinals. Erratic, but I think he'll improve.
5) Cameron Maybin, OF, Florida Marlins
Hit .250/.318/.409 in 54 games for the Marlins, .319/.399/.463 in 82 games for Triple-A New Orleans. Like Snider, he just needs more time.
6) Dexter Fowler, OF, Colorado Rockies
Hit .266/.363/.406 with 27 steals in 138 games for the Rockies. Should develop more power eventually.
7) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Hit .288/.378/.535 combined between Class A Lynchburg and Double-A Altoona. Coming along nicely.
8) Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves
Hit .323/.408/.555 combined between Class A Myrtle Beach, Double-A Mississippi, and Triple-A Gwinnett. Looks great to me.
9) Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
Hit .325/.416/.531 combined between Class A San Jose and Triple-A Fresno. Looks great to me.
10) Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers
Hit .328/.449/.481 in 50 games for Double-A Frisco, .244/.363/.360 in 54 games for Triple-A Oklahoma, hampered by a quad injury. I think he'll be fine.
11) Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers
Hit .267/.329/.373 with 33 steals for the Texas Rangers, impressing everyone on defense. Should have a very long and productive career.
12) Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals
Hit .250/.297/.421 in 129 games for Class A Wilmington. Hampered by difficult home park and shaky plate discipline.
13) Logan Morrison, 1B, Florida Marlins
Hit .277/.408/.439 combined between Class A Jupiter and Double-A Jacksonville. Had some health problems, but took a big step forward with strike zone judgment.
14) Brett Wallace, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals
Traded to Oakland. Hit .293/.367/.455 combined between Double-A Springfield, Triple-A Memphis, and Triple-A Sacramento. Coming along.
15) Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Hit .286/.365/.471 with 22 steals for the Pittsburgh Pirates, a very successful rookie campaign.
16) Matt Gamel, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
Hit .242/.338/.422 in 61 games for the Brewers, .278/.367/.473 in 75 games for Triple-A Nashville. I think he'll hit, but defensive position remains in doubt.
17) Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians Hit .290/.413/.530 with 23 homers, 90 walks for Double-A Akron. Looks great to me.
18) Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
Hit .302/.394/.447 in 70 games for Myrtle Beach, .248/.308/.342 in 41 games for Mississippi. Very young for Double-A at age 19. Give him more time.
19) Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals
Hit .241/.334/.361 in 106 games combined between Class A Burlington and Class A Wilmington. Reportedly had vision problems all season.
20) Wilmer Flores, SS, New York Mets
Hit .264/.305/.332 in 125 games for Class A Savannah. Made contact but was overmatched most of the time, however he was just 17 years old, extremely young for the level.
21) Jordan Schafer, OF, Atlanta Braves
Hit just .204/.313/.287 in 50 games for the Atlanta Braves, got hurt. If healthy he has a decent chance to rebound.
22) Gordon Beckham, SS, Chicago White Sox
Hit .270/.347/.460 in 103 games for the Chicago White Sox, very credible performance one year out of college. He's gonna be a good one.
23) Fernando Martinez, OF, New York Mets
Hit .176/.242/.275 in 29 games for the New York Mets, .290/.337/.540 in 45 games for Triple-A Buffalo. Power seems to be developing and he's still extremely young, but injuries are a problem.
24) Carlos Triunfel, SS, Seattle Mariners
Missed almost the whole season with a broken leg.
25) Jesus Montero, C, New York Yankees
Hit .337/.389/.562 combined between Class A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. Excellent bat. Defense remains a problem.
26) Ben Revere, OF, Minnesota Twins
Hit .311/.372/.369 with 45 steals for Class A Fort Myers. Lots of speed, hits for average, no power.
27) Tim Beckham, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Hit .275/.328/.389 for Class A Bowling Green. Rather disappointing season, now faces positional questions as well.
28) Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota Twins
Hit .251/.353/.382 with 10 steals in 67 games for Beloit in the Midwest League. So-so performance, though scouts still love the tools.
29) Matt LaPorta, 1B-OF, Cleveland Indians
Hit .254/.308/.442 in 52 games for the Cleveland Indians, .299/.388/.530 in 93 games for Triple-A Columbus. Just needs playing time.
30) Yonder Alonso, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
Hit .292/.374/.464 in 84 games combined between Class A Sarasota and Double-A Carolina. Power and walks are here, but needs to improve against southpaws.
31) Matt Dominguez, 3B, Florida Marlins
Hit .262/.333/.420 in 103 games for Jupiter, .186/.292/.320 in 31 games for Jacksonville. Bat isn't great at this stage, has a fine glove and is still young.
32) Kyle Blanks, 1B, San Diego Padres
Hit .250/.355/.514 in 54 games for the San Diego Padres, .283/.393/.485 in 66 games for Triple-A Portland. I like what he did in the majors and he should improve from this base.
33) Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins
Hit .294/.390/.578 in 50 games for Jupiter, .231/.311/.455 in 79 games for Jacksonville. Strikeout rate remains extremely high, but power and youth stand out.
34) Josh Vitters, 3B, Chicago Cubs
Hit .316/.351/.535 in 70 games for Class A Peoria, .238/.260/.344 in 50 games for Class A Daytona. Quick bat with developing power, but very low walk rate is a handicap.
35) Jose Tabata, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Hit combined .293/.357/.406 in 93 games between Double-A Altoona and Triple-A Indianapolis. Still just 21 years old, strong on-base skills but power isn't developing yet.
36) Kyle Skipworth, C, Florida Marlins
Hit .208/.263/.348 in 70 games for Greensboro. Had some injury problems, but it was a really bad year no matter how you cut it.
37) Michael Burgess, OF, Washington Nationals
Hit .235/.325/.410 in 131 games for Class A Potomac. High strikeout rate is an issue, but has power and is still young.
38) Austin Jackson, OF, New York Yankees
Hit .300/.354/.405 with 24 steals for Triple-A Scranton. Lack of power is an issue, but he uses his other tools well and I continue to like him better than the numbers say I should.
39) Taylor Teagarden, C, Texas Rangers
Hit .217/.270/.374 in 60 games for the Texas Ranges, used mostly as a reserve catcher. He's capable of better if they let him play.
40) Angel Villalona, 1B, San Francisco Giants
Hit .267/.306/.397 for Class A San Jose. As if that's not bad enough, he (allegedly) killed a guy in September and is now under arrest for murder in the Dominican Republic. I'd say that's a bad year.
41) Wilson Ramos, C, Minnesota Twins
Limited to 54 games by injury for Double-A New Britain, hit .317/.341/.454 when he got to play. A very solid prospect.
42) Max Ramirez, C, Texas Rangers
Hit .234/.323/.336 in 76 games for Triple-A Oklahoma, but was hampered most of the season by injuries. Given his previous track record it is too early to give up. Let's see what happens when he's healthy.
43) Todd Frazier, INF, Cincinnati Reds
Hit .292/.351/.481 combined between Double-A Carolina and Triple-A Louisville. Played mostly outfield this year, enhancing his versatility.
44) Greg Halman, OF, Seattle Mariners
Hit .210/.278/.420 with 25 homers, 29 walks, 183 strikeouts in 506 at-bats for Double-A West Tennessee. Enormous talent but extremely raw.
45) David Cooper, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
Hit .258/.340/.389 in 128 games for Double-A New Hampshire. Controls the zone ok but power was disappointing and couldn't sustain high batting average from the lower levels.
46) Josh Reddick, OF, Boston Red Sox
Hit .277/.352/.520 in 63 games for Double-A Portland, but just .127/.190/.183 in 18 games for Triple-A Pawtucket and .169/.210/.339 in 27 games for the Boston Red Sox. Good tools but still learning how to hit.
47) Beau Mills, 1B, Cleveland Indians
Hit .267/.308/.417 in 134 games for Double-A Akron, 14 homers. Another first baseman with less-than-expected performance.
48) Julio Borbon, OF, Texas Rangers
Hit .307/.367/.386 with 25 steals in 96 games for Oklahoma. .312/.376/.414 with 19 steals in 46 games for the Texas Rangers. Made huge progress refining his tools into skills. Don't expect power.
49) Aaron Cunningham, OF, Oakland Athletics
Hit .302/.372/.479 in 83 games for Triple-A Sacramento, .151/.211/.245 in 23 games for Oakland. Needs another chance.
50) Jaff Decker, OF, San Diego Padres
Hit .299/.442/.514 in 104 games for Class A Fort Wayne. Exceptional bat with power and superb strike zone judgment.
Several success stories, but I'm always more concerned about the busts than the successes. Highest-profile failure right now is Lars Anderson, who stunk up the Eastern League something awful. Several other first basemen weren't as good as expected, though some guys had injury excuses. As always, such lists can't really be judged just a year later; it takes four or five years until you know how a list really pans out.
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Dominguez
I may be the only one, but I am more impressed with his season this year than last. Last year was a result of a very friendly home park, while he spent this year in a tough offensive league. He’s continued to improve his walk rate (even when struggling in AA, it improved). Per minorleaguesplits, here are his numbers neutralizing for luck and park:
2008 in SAL: .316/.373/.490
2009 in FSL: .297/.363/.488
As a 19 year old in A+, I consider that to be a success.
by jar75 on Oct 14, 2025 9:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
neutralize it, eliminate luck and
it’s still a bad year no matter how you look at it. You just can’t take luck and park factors out and extrapolate a turd into a diamond. Hell, except for all the outs he made, he almost got a hit every time he was at bat. Perhaps if the opposing team moved off the field when he was at bat, he would do a little better. Back to reality, Dominguez is better than he showed this year, but this year was no 297/363/488 line.
by Looney4baseball on Oct 14, 2025 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Indeed, it was .262/.333/.420 as a 19 year old in one of the least offensive leagues in baseball. He ranked 19th in wOBA and 11th in ISO.
by jar75 on Oct 14, 2025 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Neutralize Park = Good, Eliminate "Luck" = Bad
It is always good to put numbers in context; a good player can be overshadowed by a lousy park. But we don’t have a good understanding of what “Luck” really means for long term forecasting of prospects, so taking their actual numbers and replacing them with league averages is a pretty bad idea.
by aCone419 on Oct 15, 2025 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Luck
There certainly are reasons to be skeptical, mainly due to the unreliability of minor league batted ball data. Luck uses that data to project what the players BABIP should have been and adjusts.
Just neutralizing the park effect gives Dominguez an A+ line of: .271/.340/.454
by jar75 on Oct 15, 2025 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chris Carter seems to have been the glaring omission from list.
Looking at just 1B, I would have taken him over Villalona, Cooper and Mills last off season.
by DeJay on Oct 14, 2025 10:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Carter
Carter was number 51. In retrospect he should have been higher of course.
by John Sickels on Oct 14, 2025 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wilmer Flores
The Mets continue their trend of rushing their prospects to levels they shouldn’t be a part of. I worry how much this could impact his development.
by napes22 on Oct 14, 2025 10:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think Flores can handle it , the way he controls the strikeouts makes me believe he will be special.
"My name is Daniel Murphy and I bat 3rd."
by Celtics17 on Oct 14, 2025 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Daniel Murphy
batting third is why the Mets weren’t worth a damn this year.
by richieabernathy on Oct 14, 2025 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sorry
that was supposed to be a thought, not a post. I apologize.
by richieabernathy on Oct 14, 2025 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But it's interesting that you mention that
they finished 7th in the MLB in OBP and 13th in Runs Scored.
They’re biggest problems, oddly enough, were fielding (dead last in UZR) and pitching (in the Bottom 10 in FIP).
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 14, 2025 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anderson still has incredible raw power
by Bravesin07 on Oct 14, 2025 10:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
incredible?
Really, incredible raw power? He has never topped .211 in ISO and that was a partial season at AA, which he well undershot this year in the same elague. He didn’t even ISO .200 with Lancaster.
I can understand a claim he has untapped raw power, but “incredible.”? Maybe I am nitpicking on the word choice.
by wobatus on Oct 14, 2025 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
key word was "raw"
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Oct 14, 2025 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
I think raw might actually show up a bit more, but I haven’t heard as many say he is gonna be an “incredible” power guy either way.
by wobatus on Oct 14, 2025 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Raw" means untapped potential
So I think you an Bravesin07 are in agreement.
by Rotofan on Oct 14, 2025 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not really
it is the “incredible” part i have a problem with, more than the raw part.
I guess i understand it might not show up in the numbers yet. Like when Ike davis had zero homers last year but folks had said he had power potential. I I think Lars has power potential, just not incredible, as far as i know, but i could be quite wrong.
by wobatus on Oct 14, 2025 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
I have now gone back and read reports that he has great raw power per the scouts, at least reports prior to this year. Another site i sw had him at 45 currently and 55 potential on the 20/80 scale. I would have thought higher than 55 if he had ’incredible" raw power. But only one mention.
Hmm, maybe that stuck in my mind. His swing seems more line-drivey all fields to me, but of course he could make adjustments. Just that sometimes when you adjust you adjust yourself out of something else.
Oh well, like is aid, i am nitpicking perhaps. I think you’d have to be happy now if he can put up a couple of 30-35 homer seasons in the majors, which isn’t “incredible” in this day and age.
by wobatus on Oct 14, 2025 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
battle of superlatives
i agree with you, wobatus. when i think of “incredible” raw power, i think of mike stanton and chris carter.
by richieabernathy on Oct 14, 2025 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh well, like is aid, i am nitpicking perhaps. I think you’d have to be happy now if he can put up a couple of 30-35 homer seasons in the majors, which isn’t "incredible" in this day and age.
Aside from the fact you love to nitpick, 30-35 hr seems pretty damn powerful to me.
Agreed he’ll likely never be a threat to hit 40+ you might want to check just how many players are hitting 30-35 home runs; it isn’t exactly a deep list.
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Oct 14, 2025 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"you'd have to be happy"
I think you are ignoring the phrase that I used there.
IF he ever puts up a couple of 30-35 homer seasons, he’d be said to have “power”. Not “incredible power”.
30 players hit 30 or more home runs this year. I don’t think of the guys at 30-35 as “incredible” power hitters. They are power hitters, more or less. Konerko has hit 40 twice and i don’t even know if he is an “incredible” power hitter. And Konerko put up huge overall numbers with power in the minors at a young age, albeit in a bit of a bandbox context at times.
I don’t know about Anderson hitting 40. Maybe as he gets older and stronger but more if he changes his swing.
But Mark Reynolds. Pujols. Fielder. Howard. Incredible power. Anderson? I just don’t see him doing that.
Frankly he’d do well now to get back to a John Olerud-esque track. Folks used to say Travis Lee would be a big power guy.
by wobatus on Oct 14, 2025 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I was confused then by your use of evidence
You pointed to ISO, which is a measure of performance, not potential, so I thought your focus was on the fact he hadn’t produced tremendous power numbers. Below you have pointed to scouting reports, which in this case I think is a better tool to measure potential.
by Rotofan on Oct 15, 2025 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I’d think some of the raw power would show up in ISOs, though. He didn’t hit gobs of doubles either. But I suppose that is results and not potential. Still, a .112 iso is very low, and his minor league career iso is .155.
Ryan Howard at the same age only ISO’d .184 in the NYPL. As he moved up his minor league ISO increased substantially. .180, then .210, then .350. I suppose Anmderson could make a similar leap, but he’d need to start soon and I just don’t see him as having that same trajectory.
by wobatus on Oct 16, 2025 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He hit the hardest ball out of anyone I saw this year and this includes, Wieters, Reimold, Montero, Westmoreland, McCutchen, and Reddick
by Bravesin07 on Oct 14, 2025 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've heard
the claim that the ball makes a different sound coming off his bat (a claim I have heard lots of times about many hitters-coming off Felix Millan’s bat it went “dink”).
One of the hardest hit balls I ever saw was a homer into the black at Yankee Stadium, hit by Elrod Hendricks.
He apparently has been touted as having a lot of raw power. But like I said I have also seen 45-55 on the 80 scale. He’s young. Maybe he’ll be a 40 homer guy. It just doesn’t look like it to me. Ike Davis sems to have more raw power and I wouldn’t call his power incredible. But you’ve seen the guy (you also saw Ike and didn’t like what you saw I recall) and all i have seen is video. And stats that as of now don’t show incredible power or even serviceable power for a 1B. Yet.
by wobatus on Oct 14, 2025 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would take Ike over...
Anderson. Ike is gonna be a stud batting in a good offense.
Reyes
Thole
Wright
Beltran
Davis
Martinez
Francour
Castillo?
by joegonzo on Oct 14, 2025 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
speaking of hard hit homers
I was at the blue jay game when carlos delgado hit one of his first homers, it was career number > 10 for sure. The ball didn’t go in an arc, it seemed to go in a straight line until it hit the windows restuarant, which is a loooong way from home plate.
I can still remember thinking “WOW”.
Delgado has (had) raw power
by tuna411 on Oct 15, 2025 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was able to watch his 4-homer game a few weeks ago
I was thinking the same thing - Wow.
Talk about country strong. The bat looked like a toothpick in his hand. All he had to do was flick it and it was gone.
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
by hero66 on Oct 15, 2025 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Todd Frazier
I went to a dozen Mudcats games this year and saw both Bats games in Durham during the playoffs. I’ve never seen Frazier anywhere but second base. Maybe I was just at the wrong games, but I went to 2 or 3 games every month and don’t recall Frazier ever being in the outfield.
by Cormican on Oct 14, 2025 1:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he played mostly in the outfield for the Mudcats
but moved to 2B almost exclusively in Louisville. i know he played a in a few games at 2B in Zebulon, so perhaps you just caught him at the right times.
word is they still see him primarily as a 3B, but they moved him around so much because they already know he can handle 3B. i’d like to see him stick at 2B where his bat will play the strongest, but im afraid the Reds are gonna dick around with him and not find him a permanent home.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 14, 2025 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I may have a poor memory too
I know the last few games were definitely second base, and I may be applying that back. To be honest, he was a pretty solid defensive player at second and his bat would be a big plus at that position.
by Cormican on Oct 15, 2025 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
carter
where would he rank now if the list was rearranged?
by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 14, 2025 1:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Rearranged or for 2010?
A bunch of those guys graduated. I’m sure John will give us his 2010 Top 50 sometime in the near future. And I expect Carter to be high on that list.
by thejd44 on Oct 14, 2025 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In hindsight
Having Vitters so high seems kind of strange to me. He just screams “another overhyped Cubs prospect” now.
by thejd44 on Oct 14, 2025 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Right
You go ahead and write him off. I’ll look forward to your “I Was Wrong” thread in a couple of years. BTW, there hasn’t been an"overhyped Cubs prospect" in about 5 years. Mainly due that they haven’t gotten any hype since Patterson. And they have a ROY since then too so STFU Cub hater.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Oct 15, 2025 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whoa
Dude, chill out
by brianthefantasyking on Oct 15, 2025 11:03 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
smarzkdidaiijia wasnt overhyped?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 15, 2025 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oddly, Soto was the one guy who wasn't overhyped.
You mention Patterson and 5 years ago. How about Eric Patterson, much more recently? How about Samardzija, Colvin (their #3 prospect in 2008 according to BA ), Gallagher (I actually kinda like him, but he isn’t setting the world ablaze or anything), Veal, FELIX EFFING PIE, Ryan Harvey, etc. etc. etc.
So I should STFU? Do me a favor. Swallow a bucket full of razor blades.
by thejd44 on Oct 15, 2025 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uhh
Felix Pie was very recently overhyped, but either way, calm down.
by napes22 on Oct 16, 2025 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pie
He was never ranked higher than 27 by BA. At age 24 he made great strides with his K rate and was an above average defender according to UZR. If he stays healthy he can still be a solid regular MLB player, so considering he was never seen as THE top position player prospect that seems like a reasonable return on the “hype” he was given.
by jibs on Oct 17, 2025 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have to agree with thejd
Vitters was another one of those stereotypical prospects with bad discipline who was overrated because of seemingly great contact skills. We all fall into this mistake every year. Really need to stop making so much of minor league batting AVGs… just too many variables in there to rely on contact skills as your calling card in the absence of secondary skills.
by alskor on Oct 15, 2025 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, this is a longer, better explanation of what I meant
And I should add that I was hoping Vitters would be included in the Harden deal last season. Part of that was not knowing a lot about him and going with the top prospect hype, but still, now I’m kinda glad (and I understand why) he wasn’t in that deal.
by thejd44 on Oct 15, 2025 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybin
Wonder if he falls out of the top 5 fromt he percieved loss of power.
Personally I dont think its an issue, with his new approach and patience those doubles will turn into HR, the speed is still there. No reason to drop him from top 5 or 6.
I would guess it goes Heyward, Alvarez, Santana, Stanton, Smoak, Maybin perhaps.
by backtocali on Oct 14, 2025 5:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybin = graduate
He had 199 PA this year, bringing him to 288 total, so he’s no longer ROY-eligible and won’t be appearing on prospect lists.
As to where he would appear on a top-50 hitters list if he were eligible, well, that’s a fair question. He had a nice season in AAA, including cutting his K’s way down, and was a close-to-average MLB CF during his stint in the majors, which is very nice for a (young - April birthday) 22-year-old.
Heyward’s the easy #1, but after that you could make an argument for any of a number of guys, including those on your list, Posey, Montero, and maybe a few others. If he were eligible, Maybin would certainly be in the conversation IMO.
by ManConley on Oct 14, 2025 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yea...
1-2 has to be Heyward-Alvarez.
by joegonzo on Oct 14, 2025 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fowler
what interests me about him is his lack of ability to play centerfield. He did horribly at the position for this year. His performance in right was stellar.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 14, 2025 5:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he looks great in the outfield
like a natural
by matthewmafa on Oct 14, 2025 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
UZR disagrees
2009: -14.0 in centerfield. -15.2 UZR/150
being worth -14.0 runs is pretty bad, even with a 2.1 positional change
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Oct 14, 2025 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
coors field
is a big reason for that… he looks great on the field and UZR is bull
by matthewmafa on Oct 14, 2025 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Coors Field didn't make him score 18 runs worse than Carlos Gonzalez
who should clearly be the one manning center there in the long haul.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 14, 2025 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
did gonzalez play center??
no he played left and right
by matthewmafa on Oct 14, 2025 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
there may be some truth to this
Willy Tavares’s UZR took a nosedive when he played for the Rockies, then shot back up with Cincinnati. Mike Cameron saw a similar effect after leaving the Padres.
by Daniel Berlyn on Oct 14, 2025 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
look it up
instead of continuing to be wrong
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Oct 14, 2025 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
im not wrong at all
fowler is not a bad defender in center… uzr is a bunch of bullshit and colorados big center field obviously effects his numbers
by matthewmafa on Oct 14, 2025 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention
UZR, like most defensive metrics iirc, should be taken with a grain of salt on a year to year basis. Isn’t it much more reflective of a players defensive ability after a 3 year total?
I could be completely off…
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Oct 14, 2025 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is definitely true
but when a guy does that poorly in center and then proves that he’s a fantastic right fielder this may be a glitch in the system, or it indicates that he’s simply not fit for the position.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 14, 2025 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder what MGL would say about this actually
He constantly tells us how UZR is not the be all end all, primarily because of sample size issues. But what if a full-time player costs his team, say, 5 wins. Or 10 wins. Put Adam Dunn at shortstop. Take some sort of ridiculous extreme that we know to be certain. At what point can we trust those extreme UZR numbers? There has to be some point where small sample size isn’t an issue (if a hitter goes 0 for 200, can’t we pretty safely assume he’s not going to turn into Babe Ruth?).
by thejd44 on Oct 15, 2025 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Normally yes.
However, if matthewmafa is right and there is a component to UZR that’s being heavily influenced by Coors, then we may need to go a different direction.
Looking at Rockies players who played CF in 2009:
Gonzalez - 1.7 (7.9 UZR/150)
Spilborghs - -0.4
Young - -0.6
Fowler - -14.0 (-15.2 UZR/150)
We can toss out Spilborghs and Young as having way too little play time there to judge. Probably Gonzalez, too, but we need something to work with. I only noted the UZR/150s of the players who had the largest samples.
Gonzalez with Oakland in 2008 CF - 5.6 (12.4 UZR/150)
We are allowed to expect variances in UZR from year to year. Since Gonzo was a +1.7 this season and a +5.6 last season in center, we can assume he’s at least a league average center fielder. The estimated totals based on more defensive games would suggest that he’s an above average defensive center fielder.
Based on this, I can’t say for sure if Gonzalez was effected much by Coors’ center field. Let’s look at other players:
Tavaras 2007: -4.7 (-7.1 UZR/150)
Tavaras 2008: -2.2 (-3.0 UZR/150)
Tavaras 2009: 8.3 (12.2 UZR/150… Great American Ballpark)
Career: 28.6 (8.1 UZR/150)
That’s interesting. Considering Tavaras has lfuctuated from 9 to 18 to 8 in his UZRs, we can safely say that year to year there can be some swinging of the data. But aside from Coors, he’s remained in the positive for UZR. What’s funny is that he got knocked for range in 2007 (Range rating = -8.1) which led entirely to his negative UZR rating. Whereas in 2008 he was knocked for errors (Error rating -2.1) which basically was his negative UZR rating as well. So the only thing we can say here for sure is that 2007 might be part of the oddity we’re looking for, but 2008 wasn’t.
Let’s move on. Corey Sullivan 2006: -3.4 UZR (-5.3 UZR/150). Got knocked for range. It’s nearly impossible to tell with him. His other UZR numbers are all negative, but none are as big a sample as his 2006 CF numbers. This is useless.
Preston Wilson 2003: -5.9 (-6.6 UZR/150, Coors)
Preston Wilson 2002: -0.6 (-1.1 UZR/150, Dolphin Stadium)
Not much to work with here. Wilson’s defensive ratings for his career are not positive, including corner outfield, which is usually easier to defend than center field. This looks normal to me.
Jaun Pierre 2002: 15.3 (16.6 UZR/150, Coors)
Juan Pierre Career UZR CF: 28.5 (5.4 UZR/150)
Well that’s pretty damming. Pierre’s been a good center fielder his whole career and had a good year in Coors. Exactly as we would expect.
Since UZR doesn’t exist before 2002, that’s all we can go on. So what do we have? Tavaras and Fowler seem to be the only two who are historically or believed to be good defenders in center field who had some oddities in Coors. Gonzalez, Pierre, and Wilson all did exactly what you’d expect.
What does this mean? In all honestly, nothing. As MGL (Mitchell Lichtman) has tried to explain numerous times about his defensive metric, all it means is that one season player X had a n UZR and in another season player X had a n1 UZR. There could be a lot of reasons why, but that doesn’t mean the metric itself is to be discarded because you don’t agree with the results. There’s a lot of things that go into UZR and sometimes it’s not about the player so much as the opportunities that player has to do something beyond what is expected of him. This is why, as Kenan and Kel says above, it’s a better idea to not take UZR as literally as some do, and instead take it as an approximation year in and year out. If they consistently post positive UZR, they’re probably a good defender. If they conssitently post negative UZR, they’re probably a bad defender. If they have positives and negatives, they’re probably an average one.
Make no mistake about UZR, it’s probably the best defensive metric we have right now, but it is a good idea to consult other metrics to see what they say. Fielding Bible’s Plus / Minus, RZR/OOZ form The Hardball Times, and PMR are all other nifty tools to use. Use them all. And use your own judgments as well.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 14, 2025 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok..
than prove that he’s good besides saying “oh, he’s a natural.”
Carlos Gonzalez is a wonderful centerfielder. He played their with the Rockies and the Athletics and was fantastic both times.
Taveras was an interesting case — 2007 looks fluky but his 2008 may have actually just been him being a bad centerfielder — his RngR was at a pretty normal level at 0.5, but his Arm Runs counted to -0.5, and his ErrR was at -2.1.
Choo Freeman succeeded in the Rockies CF and Spilborghs over his career has done below average, which is about what you’d expect.
With Gonzalez, Podsednik, Freeman and Spilborghs pretty much following the norm as as a Coors CF and with Taveras’s odd 2007 as the only real outlier I’d say UZR is pretty good for indication of Fowler’s inability to play center.
Scott Podsednik did poorly in his limited time as a Rockies CF but that’s because in general he isn’t good at the position.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 14, 2025 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is one other thing to consider.
Rookies tend to get better in their second seasons defensively. This is mostly due to learning how to run better routes, learning how to play the stadium, and just generally getting better at it. You can’t account for some physical traits, such as instincts, agility, and speed, but they can learn to be better defenders.
Thus, give Fowler another season or two before declaring he can’t play CF. It’s worth the wait if he can.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 14, 2025 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
seriously.. he can improve too
by matthewmafa on Oct 15, 2025 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Make sure to look over your shoulder when backpedaling...
you could run into something and hurt yourself.
by PissedMick on Oct 15, 2025 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That may be so
but it may be worth it to just start Carlos Gonzalez there and move Fowler to right to just not deal with the problem and have TWO great fielders.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 15, 2025 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The assumption is that Fowler can handle the corners when he can't handle center.
Like I said, it’s worth it more to see if he can play center first. If not, you have another.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 15, 2025 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zone ratings
Why would someone ignore not only the physical abilities of the player in question but 4-5 years of scouting reports in favor of one season’s worth of data being plugged into a defensive metric that is known for year to year variations?
Fowler still looked raw at times this year in center but no one who spent much time watching him play this season (and I watched all or parts of about 140 games on TV) would question his plus range in center.
Coors Field definitely does something wacky with range ratings and defensive metrics in CF.
Teams (especially Colorado and other national league west teams that play there frequently) use unique defensive positioning at Coors so that could be a factor as well.
by MADness on Nov 8, 2025 12:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who are the big movers on this list?
I would say that (omitting the guys with MLB service)
UP
Jason Heyward - #8
Buster Posey - #9 (mostly for advancement and ability to hold down C)
Jesus Montero - #25
Jaff Decker - #50
Chris Carter - #51
DOWN
Lars Anderson - #3
Mike Moustakas - #12
Eric Hosmer - #19
Wilmer Flores - #20
Carlos Triunfel - #24, tough to judge though.
Kyle Skipworth - #36
Greg Halman - #44
sound about right?
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Oct 14, 2025 5:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
mike stanton going from
33 to top 5 is a pretty big mover
and angel villilona going from 40 to out of the top 100 is another
by matthewmafa on Oct 14, 2025 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yup, those are good too
although villalona’s youth and strength keeps his upside high….if he ever gets to play again
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Oct 14, 2025 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mike Stanton
at 33 among hitters was way too low to begin with.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 15, 2025 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ike Davis moved on up
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 14, 2025 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
29 walks, 183 strikeouts
Good God.
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
by hero66 on Oct 15, 2025 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And i was disappointed with Jefry Marte....
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 15, 2025 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Desmond Jennings
From unlisted to top 10 possibly?
by DJSlam on Oct 15, 2025 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Top 10
I’m with alskor. Top 5 for me, too, alongside Heyward, Stanton, Santana, and Montero.
It’s scary to think that this guy is a toolsy elite athlete who posts an .888 OPS between AA and AAA at 22 (coming off an injury-plagued shortened season), possesses plus-plus speed and plus defense in CF, yet hasn’t scratched the surface of his power potential.
We may be looking at a perennial all-star here, boys.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 15, 2025 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Freeman was hurt in Mississippi, so hopefully he can bounce back from that.
by acie4mvp on Oct 14, 2025 8:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Freeman and Schafer both had hand/wrists injuries this season. We all know that these types of injuries (hand/wrist) linger and haunt players until they are completely healed. I expect them both to rebound nicely and continue to progress through the system.
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
by bwellnjonesco on Oct 15, 2025 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
dom brown
big swing and a miss there - dude is top 5 now if not top 3
by Wheelhouse on Oct 15, 2025 2:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
brown
I had Brown in the 55-60 range with a Grade B- rating, but the review was positive and pointed to his breakout potential.
by John Sickels on Oct 15, 2025 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where's tha love for Michael Taylor?
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 15, 2025 3:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Taylor
Taylor was a Grade B and was in the 52-55 range.
by John Sickels on Oct 15, 2025 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Laporta
Really not sure how Matt Laporta was ever ranked below Carlos Triunfel and Wilmer Flores.
by sheetskout on Oct 17, 2025 8:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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