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Philadelphia Phillies Top 20 Prospects in Review

This list was originally posted January 5, 2008.  THIS IS NOT A NEW LIST!!! THIS IS A REVIEW OF THE OLD LIST AND PRE-SEASON GRADES!!!!!!!!

1) Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Grade B
     4.32 ERA with 109/45 K/BB in 115 innings in Double-A. Just promoted to Triple-A, has looked great in his first two starts. Numbers have not always matched reputation but he's made definite progress this year.
2) Adrian Cardenas, 2B, Grade B
     .309/.374/.444 for Clearwater in the Florida State League before trade to Oakland, where he was just promoted to Double-A. Quite promising.
3) Josh Outman, LHP, Grade B
     3.20 ERA with 66/37 K/BB in 70 innings for Double-A Reading before trade to Oakland. Athletics are moving him back to starting role. Still a good prospect.
4) Joe Savery, LHP, Grade B
      4.36 ERA with 104/56 K/BB in 126 innings for Clearwater, 147 hits. A mixed bag, gets a lot of grounders but hittable. At least he is healthy.
5) Kyle Drabek, RHP, Grade C+
      Rehabbing from surgery in the Gulf Coast League.
6) Jason Donald, SS, Grade C+
      .308/.388/.509 with 10 steals and 14 homers for Reading. Looks good to me after proving he can handle this level pitching.
7) Greg Golson, OF, Grade C+
     .283/.330/.433 with 19 steals, 10 homers, 26 walks, 117 strikeouts for Reading. Great tools, skills have improved but not enough to make me confident he will live up to potential.
8) Travis Blackley, LHP, Grade C+
      5.47 ERA with 78/54 K/BB in 109 innings for Triple-A Lehigh Valley, 114 hits. Not impressive at all.
9) J.A. Happ, LHP, Grade C+
      3.30 ERA with 127/41 K/BB in 117 innings in Triple-A, 97 hits. Fourth/fifth starter type if he can maintain his command in the majors.
10) Lou Marson, C, Grade C+
       .319/.434/.423 in 97 games for Reading. Good strike zone judgment, reasonable defense, lacks power.
11) Antonio Bastardo, LHP, Grade C+
       3.49 ERA with 41/29 K/BB in 49 innings for Reading, before missing most of July with injury. Just reactivated. Interesting prospect if command is there.
12) Julian Sampson, RHP, Grade C+
       4.50 ERA with 53/46 K/BB in 112 innings for Class A Lakewood, 132 hits allowed. Projectable strike-thrower, but low strikeout rate an issue.
13) Travis D'Arnaud, C, Grade C+
      .313/.376/.481 for Williamsport in the New-York-Penn League. Need higher level data but this is obviously a nice marker for a 19 year old player.
14) Matt Spencer, OF, Grade C+
      .249/.317/.367 for Clearwater, though capable of better. Traded to Oakland, hitting .370/.429/.605 in 20 games in the Cal League, though with poor plate discipline.
15) Andrew Carpenter, RHP, Grade C+
       5.99 ERA with 50/25 K/BB in 74 innings for Reading, 94 hits allowed. Only strong attribute is control.
16) Jeremy Slayden, OF, Grade C 
       .292/.367/.467 for Reading. Old for a prospect at 26 but he continues to produce solid numbers.
17) Scott Mathieson, RHP, Grade C
       Hasn't pitched this year due to Tommy John.
18) Tyler Mach, 3B-2B, Grade C
       Hasn't played this year.
19) Travis Mattair, 3B, Grade C
       .253/.319/.329 for Lakewood. Nothing very positive in these numbers.
20) Dominic Brown, OF, Grade C
     .296/.381/.430 with 19 steals for Lakewood. Big step forward, tools are developing into skills, will be much higher on this list next year. I like him a lot.

Trading Cardenas and Outman thins the system further, though the development of Brown and (possibly) outfielder Michael Taylor helps. I still don't trust Golson to develop into a useful player, the BB/K/AB ratio scares me a lot. I still don't have a good instinct either way for Carlos Carrasco, who seems to come and go performance wise but did take a step forward this year and who has done very well in his first two Triple-A outings.

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JA Happ

needs a full-time shot.

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Aug 10, 2025 7:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

yup

After getting sent down, Happ goes 6 shut-out innings allowing 2 hits, walking 1 and striking out 10.

AAA ratios are all trending the right way.

Split IP TBF BB/PA K/PA BABIP GB% ERA
April 33.1 141 13.5% 26.2% .268 50% 3.51
May 36.0 152 7.2% 22.4% .357 44% 4.50
June 32.1 125 6.4% 26.4% .284 43% 2.51
July 15.2 56 5.4% 41.1% .179 34% 1.72
August 6.0 21 4.8% 47.6% .222 67% 0.00

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Aug 11, 2025 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tyler Mach

I have been looking forward to this list to find out what the deal is with Tyler Mach. Anyone know why he hasn’t played this season?

by StickRat on Aug 10, 2025 8:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Dominic Brown

Guess this is ultimately a question about range and arm; Does he ultimately profile as a CF or a RF?

by StickRat on Aug 10, 2025 8:38 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I can’t speak for John, but there have been some questions about Brown’s routes and jumps. As his frame fills out (and he probably loses a bit of speed as a result), he’ll probably wind up in right field. But he has untapped power potential and an advanced approach at the plate, so his bat should play just fine in right field. He’s top 5 in the Phils system at this point, at least in my book.

by PhillyFriar on Aug 10, 2025 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

re

I saw Browqn play at redan High and thought he was a better prospect as a pitcher as I saw holes in his swing, slider bat speed, and bad plate discipline. On the bump he was a 6’5” lefty throwing 88mph with tons of athleticism. Guess I was wrong about his stick, but the arm is still there to profile as avery athletic RFer. He’s 6’5”, 200 lbs right now, but once he fills out he’ll probably be in the 235lbs range. More of a Daryl Strawbery build than a Dexter Fowler.

I’m impressed with the improved discipline, because you have to figure the power will come as he matures and fills out that frame.

by ScottAZ on Aug 11, 2025 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for sharing that, Scott. It shows what a crapshoot it can be drafting toolsy high school guys—that Brown is currently the second most disciplined hitter in the entire Phils’ system (behind only Lou Marson) after demonstrating little discipline as a high school hitter. Maybe it’s a skill that can be taught.

Also interesting to hear about the arm, and a fact that’s encouraging re: his ability to stick in RF.

by PhillyFriar on Aug 11, 2025 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

cardenas

i noticed he’s playing SS everyday in AA now. i have my doubts he can stay there, this seems to be an audition for him at that spot to see if he can handle it. is range the issue with cardenas?

outman has been solid since back in the rotation…it will be interesting to see how all these lefties stack up between now and 09 or so w/ gio/anderson/smith/eveland/braden/meyer/outman etc

by Asfan4ever723 on Aug 10, 2025 9:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Marson?

John, you don’t seem nearly as enthralled with Marson as a lot of other outlets. Any reason for this? I know his BABIP is a bit high, but the plate discipline is for real, and reports indicate that he’s improving behind the plate each year (as he continues to harness his athleticism).

by PhillyFriar on Aug 10, 2025 9:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

pop

I think the only knock on him is how much power he will have which is what John brought up.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Aug 12, 2025 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

carrasco

what is his upside and what are tje chances of him reaching that upside and how far away is he?

by znyfan on Aug 11, 2025 11:17 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Anthony Hewitt

I am wondering what John and everyone else thinks of Anthony Hewitt. He is high on tools but not on polish from my understanding. Where does everyone see him in the rankings this season?

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Aug 11, 2025 6:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Response

C . . .can’t in good conscience give a guy this raw any higher without at least a little skill development.

The “Anthony Hewitt Strikeout Watch” is quickly becoming one of my favorite things to check on when I look through stats, though. 74 ABs . . .33 Ks!

by mrkupe on Aug 11, 2025 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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