Very nice report. Hernandez problem this year seem to be the lack of command on 2 of his 3 pitches each time out. Once he figures out and try to pitch to contact he will be alot better. Also, David was 6’2” and 180 lbs when he left college, he’s 6’3” and 220 lbs now, he gotten a whole lot bigger. Must be those french fries!!

I agree with a B grade. He’s got solid stuff but his biggest problems seem correctable - concentration, confidence and stamina. His biggest knock is that he just loses focus and that happens when he’s tired sometimes. He is very susceptible to the big inning. Scouts have noticed that when this happens his mechanics will change like his delivery and arm action. Last year, he located the ball much better as he could effectively hit the strike zone with all 3 pitches.

Btw, John, you’ve got a typo as “Hernandez did lower his walk rate in ‘08” should naturally be ‘07. Nice write up.

I agree that Hernandez has been able to knock 2 points off his ERA due to better luck more than anything else. However, there’s something to be said for maintaining that K-rate at AA, so Hernandez deserves a bump in his prospect grade.

I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on some other under-the-radar pitchers in the O’s system:

Brad Bergesen: Scary-low K-rate at AA so far, but getting the job done with a lot of groundballs.

Zach Britton: Another groundball pitcher putting up some very nice numbers in low-A. Need to see it at a higher level before I get excited.

These guys are a bit more well-known, but it’s tough to know what to think of their seasons so far:

Jake Arrieta: Was dominating early in the season, but has had a rough 5-start stretch after experiencing back tightness. Leads the Carolina League in K’s.

Brandon Erbe: He’s had his ups-and-downs this year, but his ratios look a lot better than last year. Long ball is a problem. Still just 20 years old, and not far behind Arrieta in Ks.

Chorye Spoone: Everyone’s breakout pick for this year doesn’t seem to have fully recovered from injury that cost him 5 weeks. Still getting groundballs, though.

I’m feeling pretty good about this group as a whole, and I’m feeling really good about the Orioles starting pitching depth when you add in Matusz, Tillman, Liz, Olson, Loewen, Beato, Bascom, Butler, Berken, Patton, etc.

If only I could say the same thing about their hitting depth…

Not sure I’m seeing Hernandez as a prospect. He’s 23 years old already so it’s not like he’s young for his league. And of his four (if you count this year) pro seasons, his walk rate has been poor in three of them and below average in the fourth (2007).

I could be convinced he could be a back of the rotation guy but I’m a bit surprised by the ‘B’ rating.

I guess, technically, anyone in the minors is a “prospect”. But looking at your list…...
Matthew Maloney - probably a good comp for Hernandez
Gio Gonzalez - reached AA at the age of 21. Hernandez was in A ball at the same age.
Jacob McGee - was pitching as a 20 year old in A ball in 2006, went to high A then AA at age 21.
William Inman - 19 years old in A ball, was in AA at age 20.
James McDonald - another good comp
Wade Davis - was 21 in A ball and went to high A and then AA the following year.

I guess my point is, the “name guys” in your list were much younger and pitching at higher levels than Hernandez so it’s hard to put Hernandez in their company. Hernandez k’s were coming in leagues where he was probably age appropriate (which isn’t bad, just not as impressive).

Again, I’m not saying Hernandez isn’t a prospect, I just think he’s more of a C/C- kind of guy. Just my opinion, of course!

Yes is walks are higher this year, but they’re not hurting him due to the fact that they are only hitting .211 against him!! Also they are hitting .169 when runners are in scoring position when last year they hit well over .300. So I think he’s doing a much better job in attacking hitters and not giving in. As his pitching coach, Mike Griffin states,”I think the biggest thing that I’ve been really impressed with - and we’ve talked about it, he and I – is being patient when you’re on the mound. Be patient and let the game come to you. He’s really done a nice job of that here in the last month.” Also, Baysox pitching coach Mike Griffin indicated that the changeup has become Hernandez’ most improved pitch this season. As you remember last year his ended his season with 18 k’s in his last start and that was because his changeup was his best pitch that night. So with his changeup in his arsenal along with his mid 90’s fastball and of course his slider he going to dominate hitters, as he has done in his last 3 starts.