Minor League Ball: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
New Blog: Brotherly Game for Philadelphia Union Fans!

2007 Top 50 Pitchers in Review

This is the Top 50 pitchers list from LAST YEAR.. I'm reviewing it to see how I did. The 2008 list is, of course, in the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book available only at Johnsickels.net. I am fine-tuning the list, and it will be sent to everyone who orders the book and provides a valid email address this week.

Top 50 Pitching Prospects for 2007

1) Philip Hughes, RHP, New York Yankees
     Went 5-3, 4.46 in 73 innings for the Yankees, 58/29 K/BB. Assuming good health, he has a very very bright future.

2) Matt Garza, RHP, Minnesota Twins
     Went 5-7, 3.69 with a 67/32 K/BB in 83 innings for the Twins. Now traded to Tampa Bay. Like Hughes, assuming he stays healthy he should be really good.

3) Yovani Gallardo, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
     Went 9-5, 3.67 with a 101/37 K/BB in 110 innings for the Brewers. Nothing to complain about here, he's really good, too.

4) Homer Bailey, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
    Undone by command problems in his major league trial, with a 28/28 K/BB in 45 innings. It all boils down to command & health. A bright future.

5) Tim Lincecum, RHP, San Francisco Giants
     7-5, 4.00 in 146 innings with the Giants, 150/65 K/BB. Outstanding stuff, will thrive if command improves a bit more.

6) Adam Miller, RHP, Cleveland Indians
     4.82 ERA with 68/21 K/BB in 65 innings for Triple-A Buffalo, undone by injuries. Health is obviously the key here.

7) Andrew Miller, LHP, Detroit Tigers
     5.63 ERA with 56/39 K/BB in 64 innings. Traded to Florida. He's capable of much better than this.

8) Mike Pelfrey, RHP, New York Mets
     5.57 ERA with 45/39 K/BB in 73 innings. Command and his breaking ball remain issues. Needs a change of scenery.

9) Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
     Pitched brilliantly in the Midwest League, 2.77 ERA with 134/50 K/BB in 97 innings, then held his own in Double-A. Needs better control but tremendous stuff stands out.

10) Luke Hochevar, RHP, Kansas City Royals
     Erratic season in Double-A and Triple-A, went 4-9, with 4.86 ERA but a 138/47 K/BB. Gave up 163 hits. More hittable than expected but showed good control.

11) Eric Hurley, RHP, Texas Rangers
      Combined to go 11-9, 4.00 between Double-A and Triple-A, with 135/55 K/BB in 162 innings. Still a bright future if fly ball tendencies don't kill him in Texas.

12) Scott Elbert, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
      Missed season with labrum injury.

13) Chuck Lofgren, LHP, Cleveland Indians
      Went 12-7, 4.37 with 123/68 K/BB in 146 innings for Double-A Akron. Not as good as anticipated, due to occasional command troubles.

14) John Danks, LHP, Chicago White Sox
      Went 6-13, 5.50 with 109/54 K/BB in 139 innings for the White Sox. Paid the price for being rushed. Should improve if he stays healthy and confident.

15) Jason Hirsh, RHP, Colorado Rockies
      Went 5-7, 4.81 with 75/48 K/BB in 112 innings for the Rockies. Should improve if he stays healthy and confident.

16) Phil Humber, RHP, New York Mets
      Went 11-9, 4.27 with a 120/44 K/BB in 139 innings for Triple-A New Orleans. Developing into an inning-eater, not an ace.

17) Franklin Morales, LHP, Colorado Rockies
      Went 5-4, 3.51 with 93/58 K/BB in 113 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. Looked very good in major league trial, with electric stuff from left side.

18) Jacob McGee, LHP, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
       Combined 8-6, 3.15 with 175/52 K/BB in 140 innings between Class A Vero Beach and Double-A Montgomery. Solidified status as one of top southpaws in the minors.

19) Michael Bowden, RHP, Boston Red Sox
      Blitzed the Cal League, then went 8-6, 4.28 in 19 starts for Double-A Portland, combined K/BB of 128/41 in 143 innings. A good year, but was overshadowed by others.

20) Clay Buchholz, RHP, Boston Red Sox
      Pushed past organization-mate Bowden, destroyed the minors and threw a no-hitter in the Show. Currently the best pitching prospects in baseball.

21) Matt Albers, RHP, Houston Astros
       Went 4-11, 5.86 with the Astros with a 71/50 K/BB in 111 innings. Good stuff, command a major problem.

22) Brandon Morrow, RHP, Seattle Mariners
      Unexpectedly made Mariners bullpen in spring training, posted 4.12 ERA in 60 games but with 66/50 K/BB in 63 innings. Great stuff, but command is shaky.

23) Wade Davis, RHP, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
       Combined to go 10-3, 2.50 with 169/51 K/BB in 158 innings between Vero Beach and Montgomery. A very fine prospect, one of many in the pitching-rich Tampa Bay system.

24) Sean West, LHP, Florida Marlins
      Season lost to labrum surgery.

25) Humberto Sanchez, RHP, New York Yankees
      Blew out elbow, had Tommy John surgery.

26) Jeff Niemann, RHP, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
      Went 12-6, 3.98 with 123/46 K/BB in 131 innings for Triple-A Durham. Should be a good inning-eater.

27) Nick Adenhart, RHP, Los Angeles Angels
      Went 10-8, 3.65 with 116/65 K/BB in 153 innings for Double-A Arkansas. Should be a good inning-eater.

28) Craig Hansen, RHP, Boston Red Sox
       3.86 ERA with 48/32 K/BB in 51 innings for Triple-A Pawtucket. Command issues a big problem here, but he gets a ton of ground balls and still has a chance to be special.

29) Donald Veal, LHP, Chicago Cubs
      Went 8-10, 4.97 with 131/73 K/BB in 130 innings for Double-A Tennessee. Mechanical breakdown hurt his command. Still intriguing.

30) Troy Patton, LHP, Houston Astros
      Went 10-8, 3.51 with 94/44 K/BB in 151 innings between Double-A Corpus Christi and Triple-A Round Rock. A solid prospect but probably won't turn into an ace.

31) Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
       Pitched great in A-ball, but command fell apart after promotion to Double-A, as shown by weak 49/46 K/BB in 70 innings for Reading. Still promising in the long run.

32) Brandon Erbe, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
      Was horrible in the Carolina League due to control problems, posted 6.26 ERA with 111/62 K/BB in 119 innings. Should rebound if healthy.

33) Kevin Slowey, RHP, Minnesota Twins
     Lights-out in Triple-A (1.89 ERA in 20 starts) but needed time to adjust to the majors. If he can get the home runs under control, could be the new Brad Radke.

34) Brad Lincoln, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
     Blew out elbow, had Tommy John surgery.

35) Tyler Clippard, RHP, New York Yankees
       Went 6-5, 4.50 with 83/47 K/BB combined between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton. Component marks slipped, and was probably overrated at this slot on the list.

36) Mitch Talbot, RHP, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
      Horrible start hurt his numbers, but finished with a 13-9, 4.53 mark and a 124/59 K/BB in 161 innings for AAA Durham. Still a decent prospect.

37) Glen Perkins, LHP, Minnesota Twins
      Limited to 29 innings in the majors by injuries, but pitched well (3.14 ERA). Rehab work in the minors resulted in 6.52 ERA in 19 innings. A good pitcher if healthy.

38) Sean Gallagher, RHP, Chicago Cubs
      Went 10-3, 3.10 with 91/37 K/BB in 102 innings between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa. A solid inning-eater type.

39) Gio Gonzalez, LHP, Chicago White Sox
       Posted 3.18 ERA with 185/57 K/BB in 150 innings for Double-A Birmingham, erasing doubts following erratic '06 campaign.

40) Edinson Volquez, RHP, Texas Rangers
      Rebuilt his mechanics, went 14-6, 3.67 with 186/60 K/BB in 145 minor league innings. Great stuff, all boils down to command, just like before.

41) Matt Harrison, LHP, Atlanta Braves
      Went 5-7, 3.39 with 78/34 K/BB in 117 innings. Traded to Rangers, had some shoulder trouble but was healthy by the Arizona Fall League.

42) Chris Volstad, RHP, Florida Marlins
     Went 12-11, 4.16 with 118/47 K/BB in 169 innings between Class A Jupiter and Double-A Carolina. Remains highly projectable.

43) Will Inman, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
      Traded to Padres. Combined mark of 8-11, 3.28 for three minor league teams with 180/58 K/BB in 159 innings. Some Double-A struggles raise doubts, but still very young.

44) Jon Meloan, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
      Top closer prospect posted 2.03 ERA and 91/27 K/BB in 67 innings with 20 saves in the minors. Savage slider and good fastball stand out.

45) Garrett Olson, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
      Hammered in the majors, but very effective in Triple-A, 3.16 ERA with 120/39 K/BB for Norfolk. Will get more chances in the Show.

46) Cesar Carrillo, RHP, San Diego Padres
      Blew out elbow, had Tommy John surgery.

47) Jimmy Barthmaier, RHP, Houston Astros
       He was horrible in Double-A, 6.20 ERA with 73/44 K/BB in 90 innings, 116 hits. Was clobbered in the Arizona Fall League, too. Have to wonder if he's healthy.

48) Joey Devine, RHP, Atlanta Braves
      1.89 ERA with 78/19 K/BB in 57 innings, 20 saves between Double-A and Triple-A. Can still be a major league closer if command and confidence hold up.

49) Pat Neshek, RHP, Minnesota Twins
     Excellent year in the Minnesota bullpen.

50) Anthony Swarzak, RHP, Minnesota Twins
     Season clouded by drug suspension, but he pitched well, with 3.23 ERA and 76/23 K/BB in 86 Double-A innings.

0 recs  |  Comment 35 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Typo
Volquez actually had 166Ks not 186.

Thanks for sharing this with us.

by Dfarth on Jan 13, 2026 6:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I like
How Hughes is ranked considering that his fastball and stuff can be nastier before his injury... I just wonder what would've happen if he did finish no-hitter

by shakezula on Jan 13, 2026 7:16 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Ugh
I just noticed that it's a list from 2007 revisited.  My bad

by shakezula on Jan 13, 2026 7:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

1998
Good stuff. I'd like to see a review of the list from 1998. 10 years is a good benchmark for prospects. Most have exhausted all of their team controlled years, so we really know how they turned out.

by rwperu34 on Jan 13, 2026 8:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Matt White
I remember the hoopla regarding that guy. I know he got hurt, but geesh was he hyped. That is what sticks out for me about 1998 prospects, and who in the 2008 list will go his way.

by dlpme77 on Jan 13, 2026 11:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Kudos, John, a great job
Not much more to say than that.

As for the Braves swapping Devine for Kotsay for -- was this a "makeup" for the Hudson swap?  Yikes, what were the Bravos thinking????

by conig166 on Jan 13, 2026 8:10 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Braves Thinking
They were probably thinking, "We don't have a major league CF on our roster, so let's give up a marginal prospect to get one that only costs $2MM."

by rwperu34 on Jan 13, 2026 9:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Don't be surprised
If that "marginal" prospect is the closer by the All Star Break. Oakland seem to do wonders eith doing that, case in point Jason Isringhausen

by dlpme77 on Jan 13, 2026 10:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Rohrbough or Hanson
Not in the top 50 for 2007?

by Jay212033 on Jan 13, 2026 8:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

list
This list was done BEFORE the 2007 season.

by John Sickels on Jan 13, 2026 10:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow
the only real shock to me, looking back, was Bowden ahead of Buchholz.
This is me being polite.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 13, 2026 11:10 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Looks Good
Except I don't like how Homer is represented. When healthy he had a sub 3era and was 2-1, when hurt he got shelled. However it wasnt like it was an elbow or shoulder injury so i dont think that his injured groin should be made to look like he is fragile. Just give him a full season,

by kennythered on Jan 14, 2026 12:09 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Not quite accurate
Bailey, when healthy (3 starts prior to July 26th and 3 starts after returning from the dl) posted a 3.86 ERA over that time in 35.1 innings.
http://www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Jan 14, 2026 12:25 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hansen
I don't think that I've read anywhere else that he can still be special... you sure have a lot of faith on that one!

by jc3 on Jan 14, 2026 11:11 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Relievers...
Are a fungible but yet highly volatile bunch.  All it takes is for Hansen to remember how to throw that slider for strikes and he all of a sudden will become a MLB reliever and a potential dominant one (that's where increased FB control comes into play).  That's a small enough adjustment to still hold out some hope.  It's not as if he's going through injury problems or the proverbial bad command.  Its really just regaining what he once had.  That's not to say that its easy or likely to happen, but its enough to still have some hope that it can happen.

by jspearlj1 on Jan 14, 2026 11:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
I agree with you on the reliever aspect, but I was just pointing out how everyone else seems to have given up on Hansen...

by jc3 on Jan 14, 2026 11:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Also
Remember the list is from LAST YEAR.  John's comment would probably be different now.

by Dfarth on Jan 14, 2026 12:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Barthmeier
He's with the Pirates now, via waivers.

IOW, TJ surgery is a given.

by WTM on Jan 14, 2026 12:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Rockies Top 20 list?
Hi John,

Do you by any chance know when you might be putting up your Rockies Top 20 list?  I'm just hoping they weren't accidentally overlooked.  Thank you much.

by Prospector on Jan 14, 2026 2:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Overlooked?
Just be patient. Rockies, Giants and Indians are still to come. John obviously wanted some reactions to the 2007 50-best-hitters-and-pitchers before finalizing his 2008 version for the book, going to press very soon.

by berkowit28 on Jan 14, 2026 2:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

3 potential closer prospects
made the list back then, how do you see
their upside now?

Hansen
Meloan
Devine

by rayver723 on Jan 14, 2026 3:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Buchholz
Why do you say that he's the best pitching prospect in baseball, what separates him from: Kershaw, Price, Joba, and Porcello?  Also if Tim Lincecum and Phil Hughes still had prospect eligibility where would they stack up against this year's crop of pitching prospects?  Also that was a pretty solid list. Lincecum was a lil low, and that was the only "big" problem that stuck out too me, Craig Hansen notwithstanding, but  pretty much KG and I were the only ones who were super high on Lincecum.

by ChrisLDuncan on Jan 14, 2026 4:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

buchholz
i'm not john, but here's what i think separates him from those other guys:

joba: clean injury history, no question of future role
kershaw: infinitely better walk rate, proven against AA/AAA (even MLB somewhat)
price/porcello: proven at the top levels, doesn't have to take a backseat in terms of stuff/upside/ceiling

including those other guys, i'd rank them

tim
clay
joba
phil
price
kershaw
[huge gap]
porcello

by jpahk on Jan 14, 2026 4:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting.
Really? That's somewhat similar to what I'd go, execpt I'd probably say:A

Tim
Phil
Kershaw
Clay/Joba (tied)
Price
Porcello, but not a "huge" gap.

by ChrisLDuncan on Jan 15, 2026 4:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lincecum
I don't think anyone was or is higher on Tim Lincecum than I -- with the possible exception of Wiull Carroll, who says he wouldn't trade Tim for any other pitcher in the game.

Probably the best development with Tim last season was that by the end of 2007 his change up -- developed this past winter -- had become his most effective pitch.  Probably the two slightly negative developments were that his control faltered a bit from his minor league levels and he seemed to tire a bit under the strain of his first full season.

I think Tim is already one of the better starters in the NL.  The key to his becoming one of the best is his control -- particularly on his first pitch.  When Tim threw strike one, his walk rate approaches that of Greg Maddux.  When his first pitch was a ball, his walk rate was more like a young Sandy Koufax.  Tim's strike percentage on his first pitch was only about 55%.  Every percent he improves that should incrementally improve his pitching.  If he can improve the 55% to 65%, I would expect a breakthrough season in 2008.

And if Tim not only improves his control but his command as well, he could become THE best starter in the NL.

Incidentally, not only did Tim have better control last season than Sandy Koufax at 23, incredibly he also walked fewer per nine innings than either Greg Maddux or Pedro Martinez in his first full season.  So there is precedent for the type of improvement in control that could allow Tim to become one of the best pitchers of all time.

by sharksrog on Jan 14, 2026 6:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You Were Not Higher On Lincecum Than I
I have a custom made Tim Licecum fat head in everyroom of my house ;)  I see pretty much the same thing you do in Timmy, however power pitchers his size really don't last to long.  However, most of the scouts I know say that his mechanics are so perfect that it will allow him to pitch at that rate for years.  Hope they're right.  

by ChrisLDuncan on Jan 15, 2026 4:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

uh oh
i don't even want to know how sharksrog will respond to that. let's hope he doesn't actually go out and kidnap tim lincecum himself as the centerpiece of his tim lincecum shrine.

by jpahk on Jan 15, 2026 4:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

mm

Also that was a pretty solid list. Lincecum was a lil low, and that was the only "big" problem that stuck out too me, Craig Hansen notwithstanding, but  pretty much KG and I were the only ones who were super high on Lincecum.

(cough)

https://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/1/17/622/46790

by wily mo on Jan 15, 2026 6:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

There were actually...
several of us who were pretty high on Lincecum. I know I am still a big fan of his myself (especially since I have him on my DMB team).
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jan 16, 2026 11:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Omissions?
Some of the pitchers not on this list who had pretty good rookie showings last season, not including the Japanese imports:

Jeremy Guthrie - His minor league career wasn't inspiring, but he led rookie pitchers in VORP last season.
Kyle Kendrick - nobody seemed to see that one coming, so I can't really blame John.
Brian Bannister - Mets fans had liked him a lot before he was traded to KC.
Joakim Soria - Speaking of KC pitchers, he had a lot of buzz from the Mexican league over the Winter.
Micah Owings - I'm actually a little surprised he wasn't on this list, since he seems like the type of overlooked pitcher John normally picks up on.
Manny Corpas - BA and Rockies fans seemed to have him more highly regarded than John.
Ubaldo Jimenez - Ditto.
Shawn Hill -  This one came on as nearly as much of a surprise as Kendrick.
Jesse Litsch - I don't remember seeing any lists where he was a top fifty prospect, but he seems promising now.

by Rox Girl on Jan 15, 2026 6:51 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Read
the top

by Sox Puppet on Jan 15, 2026 11:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Realize my title's probably confusing
If John's wanting to know how he did last year, part of that would be looking at the guys that didn't make his list but appear to be heading for careers better than a lot of the guys who did, no?

by Rox Girl on Jan 15, 2026 11:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

owings
Here is what I wrote about Owings last year. I liked him when he was in college and gave him a good review and a Grade B. He almost made the top 50.

Owings made a lot of noise last year, winning 10 of 15 starts after being promoted to Triple-A just one year removed from Tulane. His components for Tucson were less impressive than the raw win total; his strikeout rate declined compared to Double-A, along with deterioration in his K/BB. But in general it was a very nice year...he even hit .356 with a home run, a reminder that he was a very good two-way player in college ball for Georgia Tech and Tulane. Owings throws 89-92 MPH as a starter, although he hit 93-95 as a reliever in his pro debut. He has a very good slider, but is still working on his changeup. I'd like to see him get another half-season of Triple-A under his belt, but I like him. Grade B.

by John Sickels on Jan 15, 2026 1:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Minor League Ball: Where the Future of Baseball is Discussed
Start posting on Minor League Ball »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
If Mejia starts the year in the majors: Just how stupid?

Recent FanPosts

Small
Minor League Assignments
Small
Community Prospect #91
Yankees_small
Prospects on Major League Rosters Right Now!!!!!!!
Small
Community Prospect #90
Deadhorse_small
Jason Heyward Named Braves' Opening Day RF
Small
Too much talent - who do I cut (final update)
Small
Reds 5th starter
Small
Prospects moving up
Small
Community Prospect #89
Punto_small
Milton Bradley = Kanye West of Baseball?

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

In Association With

MLB -- FanHouse

  • Matt Wieters Catching On Quick With O's
  • Los Angeles Dodgers 2010 Primer
  • Dodgers Need Ace Potential to Be Reality
  • At Age 47, Jamie Moyer Keeps Surprising

SBNation.com Recent Stories

SB Nation's 2010 MLB Previews: St. Louis Cardinals, Eyes On The Prize

SB Nation's 2010 MLB Previews: LAnaheim Angels, Still The One

+6 updates

Spring Training News & Notes, 3/26: Catching Up With Everyone

More from SBNation.com >


Managers

Carew_small John Sickels


Site Meter