Crystal Ball: Joe Mauer

by John Sickels on Feb 20, 2026 12:06 PM EST in News Comment 95 comments

Everyone loves Joe Mauer, as well they should. Given a normal growth curve, he will be an outstanding hitter. . .hell, he already is most of the time.

Of course, catcher growth curves are not always normal. The main unanswered question right now is how much home run power Mauer will develop. It's hard to remember considering Minnesota's pop-gun offense of recent years, but for most of their history the Twins franchise was renowned for offense: Killebrew, Oliva, Carew, Puckett, Hrbek. . .even the minor stars of Twins history like Bob Allison, Larry Hisle, Gary Gaetti, and Tom Brunansky tended to be power guys. But now it's pitching-and-defense all the way. That's good, but as a Twins fan I'd like to bring some of the power back, too.

For purposes of this Crystal Ball, I am going to assume that Mauer avoids further severe knee trouble in the immediate future. However, I will posit a major injury down the line, one that forces him to move to another position (probably first base) around age 30.

Although I continue to caution people not to take the Crystal Ball feature too seriously, I do think that Mauer's career (if he stays healthy) will look something like this.

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well

I won't get into the stats, they look pretty good,

but..

I love that you have him staying with the Twins forever.

One of the classiest kids i've ever seen, and he's only young 20's. He's good for baseball.

by hotshotschamp on Feb 20, 2026 12:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

oh btw...

btw...

if his career avg aint above .300 I'll give ya a quarter

by hotshotschamp on Feb 20, 2026 12:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

4 bits

says Mauer doesn't come anywhere near this Crystal Ball.

by HuskerBob on Feb 20, 2026 12:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i totally agree

I'll even bet 8 bits on it. Not only do I think that it's unrealistic that he's not going to be that great offensively, I also think that it's unrealistic to think that he's going to play that many games, even before his injury in his 30 year old year pushes him to 1B.

by sabernar on Feb 20, 2026 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lifetime Twin...

You homer!!!

"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Feb 20, 2026 12:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He will be the new Puckett/Radke

It always seems as if the Twins have one player on their roster that they will do anything to hold onto. Mauer will be that player. He doesn't seem like the type that would take money and run if there was a decent offer on the table from his hometown 9.

by Terry Ryan Jr on Feb 20, 2026 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Best ever?

This crystal ball makes Mauer the greatest hitting catcher ever - pretty high marks for a kid with so few major league at bats.

Mauer Proj. Piazza
2B 453 308
HR 308 397
RBI 1367 1223
R 1230 976
BB 1077 707
K 972 986

I'll give you that you move Mauer out from behind the plate at age 30, but this still strikes me as incredibly optimistic, projecting someone with one full season well above and beyond the benchmark for his position.

I am reminded of the immortal words of Socrates, who said, "I drank what?"

by kings33 on Feb 20, 2026 12:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

checked

I should have checked that.

by John Sickels on Feb 20, 2026 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Two things...

One is that he does have Mauer moving out of C which would lengthen his career and keep him from having the steep dropoff that Piazza is having. Secondly, the projection doesnt have him hitting anywhere near Piazza's peak. His numbers are more spread out, which is consistant with his starting earlier and lasting longer. I dont see anything wrong with the Crystal Ball and dont think that he is projection above and beyond Piazza. Piazza hit over 30 homers consistantly and eclipsed 40 a couple times, whereas Mauer is projected to only barely break 30 and only once in his career. Also Mauer only goes over .330 once in a full season (and once in a half) whereas Piazza hit over .330 for 3 straight years and again in a half year with NYM and Piazza hit over .360 once in a full season. I dont think Mauers projection comes close to eclipsing Piazza and I think its very reasonabl to think that Mauer could have a career that looks a lot like this.

by grozzy on Feb 20, 2026 12:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

After 10 years behind the plate

it won't matter. I dare you to find another C that spent that much time back there and became MORE productive after they move.

by HuskerBob on Feb 20, 2026 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Count me in

I'll be more then happy to track down someone as soon as you show me a catcher that had his abilty and was this good at such a young age.

It is a little hard to compare once in a lifetime talent to your average player. It just don't work that way. We have never seen a catcher of his size and ability.

by Josh on Feb 20, 2026 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This good, this young.

Johnny Bench (who ended up switching positions after catching 1750 games)says "Hi".

Sim Player From To Yrs G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG SB CS OPS+
+---++-------------------+---------+--+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+- ----+----+---+----+

Johnny Bench 1967-1970 4 486 1787 254 502 101 8 87 326 139 303 .281 .330 .492 12 14 126

Joe Mauer 2004-2005 2 166 596 79 177 34 3 15 72 72 78 .297 .371 .440 14 1 114

by sidnancy on Feb 20, 2026 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

knew he was coming

I should of explained more cause I knew bench was coming. I don't see them as the same type of player. They are both big and catch but don't have the same skills when it came to hitting.

Bench was more of a power hitter. Where Joe is a high average high/OBP guy. Over at baseball-reference they have Jeter has a comparable hitter to Mauer. I think Jeter is a much better comparision then Bench with the bat. Players like Jeter and Mauer age better with the bat then a player like Bench imo.

by Josh on Feb 20, 2026 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RE: Bench

"Bench was more of a power hitter. Where Joe is a high average high/OBP guy...Players like Jeter and Mauer age better with the bat then a player like Bench imo."

(1) Mauer, like Bench, is a catcher. Catchers don't age, some just fall apart more slowly.

(2) Bench hit .293 in each his age 21 and 22 seasons in 1263 plate appearances; Mauer has hit .297 in 676 PA. So at that point in his career, he was just as much a "high BA hitter" (though his OBP wasn't as high).

(3) BB-Ref (where I got my stats, too) has Jeter as having comparable stats through age 22, not as being comparable hitters. More importantly, they have Benito Santiago (who is still catching at 83 years old), old timer Shanty Hogan (done as a catcher by 26), Joe Torre (who was done catching by 29), and Bill Freehan (who caught more than 100 games twice after turning 29) as being more comparable than Jeter now to Mauer. While there are worse careers than Freehan's or Torre's, I don't think those are the kinds of career you think he'll have.

by sidnancy on Feb 20, 2026 7:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

comparable stats

How do you put up comparable stats and not be comparable hitters?

There is always a chance that an injury will end every players career. Because he compares to catchers that only caught till 29 means nothing to me. He also compares to a catcher that missed time for the war. Does that mean Joe is headed to Iraq?

No one knows how Joe will age. This isn;t a debate on how well catchers as a group hold up. We are talking about a single player here. Anyone who thinks they know how Joe is going to age isn't living in reality. The best we can do is assume good health and go from there.

by Josh on Feb 20, 2026 9:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mauer's aging

You can put up comparable stats because they are blind counting stats - making no adjustment for league, park, etc. They're fun, but they don't tell us a thing.

But you've drifted from the original point - You said there hasn't bee a catcher as good, the same size(?), as young as Mauer. Well, there have been. I've shown you the catchers who were very good just as young (and Bench had 3 Gold Gloves, a Rookie of the Year, and an MVP by Mauer's age). If size matters much, Mauer is listed at 6'4", 220 lbs. Torre was 6'2" 212; Freehan 6'2" 205; Bench 6"1" 208. All were slightly smaller, but were likely just as large vs. everyone in the league at the time (because everyone is bigger now).

To correct your statement above, it should read "No one knows how Joe will age. The best we can do is look at similar players, and assume he'll age about the same." Because we cannot assume good health for an extended period for catchers - the position is just too brutal.

by sidnancy on Feb 21, 2026 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

nancy

"To correct your statement above, it should read "No one knows how Joe will age. The best we can do is look at similar players, and assume he'll age about the same." Because we cannot assume good health for an extended period for catchers - the position is just too brutal."

Please don't correct what I want to say. I disagree 100% with what you are saying there. IN johns very first post he said assuming good health. DO you really want to see a crystal ball that shows Joe done in 3 years? That would be semiretarted.

And Torre, Freehan, and Bench do not compare to Mauer. Sorry. 6'1" doesn't = 6'4. 6'2 doesn't = 6'4. You want to be all technical on comparing Jeter and Mauers stats, but when it comes to your argument on size, ahh they are close enough. whatever. I think what I think. You think what you think.

by Josh on Feb 21, 2026 10:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Torre

I like that as a comparison... Not a career to complain about.

My guess is that he will fall somewhere between Torre and Piazza, closer to Torre. But I don't rule out Todd Zeile either.

This is fun debate, and no one knows for sure. Would be great to see him redefine the benchmarks for catchers... I just wouldn't bet on it.

I am reminded of the immortal words of Socrates, who said, "I drank what?"

by kings33 on Feb 21, 2026 7:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

uh

Joe Torre

by Brickhaus on Feb 21, 2026 6:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Photo

Mauer looks like he's fouling one to the backstop in that picture. You could have found something a little more menacing given that projection. :)

by jianfu on Feb 20, 2026 12:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

piazza

I didn't intend for Mauer to come out ahead of Piazza. I had someone like Ted Simmons in mind for a comp to Mauer.

Note that Piazza has a lot more home run power than even Mauer's projection, plus a higher batting average. Given Piazza playing his career in LA and NY, difficult places to hit, his adjusted overall OPS would likely be better than Mauer's, which is what I had in mind.

by John Sickels on Feb 20, 2026 12:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Era?

Piazza also put up his stats during an obnoxious hitting era, so you might want to factor that in as well.

by tmelander on Feb 22, 2026 3:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

piazza

Piazza's career 162-game average is .311 with 38 homers and 116 RBI. That's better than Mauer's projection.

by John Sickels on Feb 20, 2026 12:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mauer's HR

Mauer's projected HR per 162 games is 22. His RBI/162 is 97.

by John Sickels on Feb 20, 2026 12:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

.471

Career projected SLG for Mauer is .471, less than Piazza's .555.

So it is not true that I am projecting Mauer to be better than Piazza...he has less power and less batting average and a worse OPS+.

by John Sickels on Feb 20, 2026 12:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not HOF caliber numbers

Barring injury, Mauer is the surest HOFer I've seen since Puckett in a Twins uniform. Of course, a lot of people don't believe he should be in the hall, but that's an injury issue. Anyway, the numbers you give are not hall worthy unless he remains a catcher his whole career. And then he's a a fourth or fifth ballot HOFer at best. Projecting HOF is folly at this age, but I thought it was interesting to point that out.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Feb 20, 2026 12:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Not HOF caliber numbers

I guess that depends how much the HoF voters take position into account. For a strictly 1b, those aren't HoF numbers. For strictly a Catcher, they definitely are. Based on his first 8 full seasons being at catcher and the tallies he ads on at 1b, I think he qualifies.

by steve johnson on Feb 20, 2026 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

except that...

...Puckett's numbers were borderline HoF'er. Take a look - there are any number of guys who never got in who had better numbers then he did. And Mattingly has about the same numbers has he did and most everyone agrees that he doesn't deserve to get in.

by sabernar on Feb 20, 2026 4:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Are you suggesting that Mauer will get glaucoma?

Because Puckett would be a sure-fire 3000 hits guy without that injury.

by limozeen on Feb 20, 2026 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I did say that...

.. some don't think he should be there (e.g. Gossage), but that that was injury related. In other words, barring injury, I see Mauer having a HOF career. And barring injury, Puckett would have still been a first balloter and no one would be complaining right now.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Feb 20, 2026 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re: except that...

----------------------------------------------
...Puckett's numbers were borderline HoF'er. Take a look - there are any number of guys who never got in who had better numbers then he did. And Mattingly has about the same numbers has he did and most everyone agrees that he doesn't deserve to get in.
---------------------------------------------

...Mattingly was a first baseman. Puckett was a centerfielder for about ten years. Mattingly's first six first seasons were good to great. The last five don't seem any better than an average 1b of that era. I'm not the biggest fan of this approach, but it also helped his case that Puckett was involved in two world championship teams and was a deciding factor in each.

by steve johnson on Feb 21, 2026 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mattingly vs. Puckett

Mattingly, at his peak, was the better player than Puckett was at his. Mattingly's first 6 years are brilliant, HOF-level seasons. He won one MVP and really should have won a second in 1986. He was not just a first baseman, he was a great one, both offensively and defensively.

He hurt his back and was never the same after that. Puckett was more of a compiler and a media favorite, plus he won 2 championships, so he is in the Hall. None of those facts make him a better player than Mattingly, who was affected by injury just as much as Puckett was. I'm not saying that Mattingly deserves to be in the Hall, but if you asked me to take one player at their peak, Mattingly easily wins the debate.

by jc3 on Feb 21, 2026 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Mattingly vs Puckett

-----------------------------------------------
I'm not saying that Mattingly deserves to be in the Hall, but if you asked me to take one player at their peak, Mattingly easily wins the debate
----------------------------------------------

You couldn't answer that debate objectively unless you looked at what Firstbasemen were doing at the time vs Centerfielders. No question that for those six peak years without respect to position, Mattingly was just a better hitter. Likewise, considering the last six seasons of Mattingly's carrer, Puckett's hitting was superior. Lifetime, Mattingly ranks just above Puckett in adjusted OPS+, while Pucket had an edge in RC/9.

----------------------------------------------
Puckett was more of a compiler...
---------------------------------------------

No he wasn't. That doesn't even make sense.

-------------------------------------------
...and a media favorite
--------------------------------------------

Mattingly was as well. Both consumate "Nice Guys" in the eyes of the media at the time.

by steve johnson on Feb 21, 2026 7:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Points

The reason Mattingly's #'s for the last 6 years were significantly worse was because of a back injury. Before that, his numbers were significantly better.
He is more of a compiler than Mattingly because he had to have 6 extra years of healthy baseball to catch Mattingly in career numbers, and even then, his numbers are not better.
Puckett was more in the limelight because his team was more competitive and he got more exposure. You are right, they were both liked, but Puckett was more front-and-center to the nation.

by jc3 on Feb 21, 2026 7:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Puckett being a "compiler"

-----------------------------------------------
The reason Mattingly's #'s for the last 6 years were significantly worse was because of a back injury. Before that, his numbers were significantly better.
---------------------------------------------

It just doesn't matter. Injuries are part of baseball, as are chronic injuries that lessen skills. It doesn't change the fact that from 1988 and to the end of both their carreers after the 1995 season, Puckett was a better hitter and a better player. Or that Puckett played a premium defensive position that makes his production more valuable.

------------------------------------------------
He is more of a compiler than Mattingly because he had to have 6 extra years of healthy baseball to catch Mattingly in career numbers, and even then, his numbers are not better.
------------------------------------------------

This makes no sense beyond some twisted notion of sour-grapes. A 'complier' sounds like someone who hangs on to accrue more counting stats while providing less than adept production. I hate to point out that once again, the end of Mattingly's career more closely matches this, but I'm not going to stoop to labeling a good player with a derogatory term, but you did bring it up.

-----------------------------------------------
Puckett was more in the limelight because his team was more competitive and he got more exposure. You are right, they were both liked, but Puckett was more front-and-center to the nation.
------------------------------------------------

Except it wasn't this "limelight" that got him into the Hall of Fame.

by steve johnson on Feb 21, 2026 8:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

"...Mattingly, who was affected by injury just as much as Puckett was."

The only HOFer in recent memory affected more by injury than Puckett was Roberto Clemente, and before him, Lou Gehrig.

by limozeen on Feb 21, 2026 7:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Please

If Mattingly and Puckett both had their significant injuries in 1990 and both retired, who's career would be considered better? Right, it's not close.

To say that Mattingly's career was not as adversely affected by injury as Puckett's is not accurate. Mattingly had 6 healthy years, Puckett 12. Puckett certainly had the more debilitating injury, but he didn't have to play with his, either, so his numbers were not affected by it.

by jc3 on Feb 21, 2026 8:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Playing injury vs. extreme circumstances

Big difference.

by limozeen on Feb 21, 2026 8:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is nonsense

---------------------------------------------
If Mattingly and Puckett both had their significant injuries in 1990 and both retired, who's career would be considered better? Right, it's not close.

---------------------------------------------

#1) you are still equating a firstbaseman to a Centerfielder without accounting for such. It would be an interesting exersize to find their production relative to their position, because that matter.

#2) This is rediculous and intellectually backwards argument you are making. This is a type of Strawman argument you are making limiting the scope of the comparison to put one player in the best light, and the other in the worst.

by steve johnson on Feb 21, 2026 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He has been rated that good

He is supposed to do something in the same area as this. A sure HOF career with those numbers.

I think that his HR power won't start that early, it will be a little less and backloaded. One question, Why will he virtually stop running?

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Feb 20, 2026 12:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Why stop running?

Probably because... he's a catcher.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Feb 20, 2026 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jason Kendall?

1352 Games behind the plate, 142 SB, still running at 32.

by cooper7d7 on Feb 20, 2026 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd say that's

the exception that proves the rule.

by abbreviatedman on Feb 20, 2026 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Definitely, but...

I don't think you can out of hand say that just because a player is a catcher, he will stop running. There are exceptions to the rule. I don't see why Mauer couldn't continue to steal 7-12 bases a season.

by cooper7d7 on Feb 20, 2026 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No, of course there are exceptions.

I'm just saying that running catchers, especially ones who run throughout their careers, are few and far between for a reason. Catching is hell on the body, for one, especially the knees. And more importantly, big guys tend not to have the body type to run well, and catchers tend to be big guys.

That said, I'm a huge Mauer fan, so here's hoping!

by abbreviatedman on Feb 21, 2026 1:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not quite...

The last five years, Kendall has stolen 13, 15, 8, 11, and 8 bases. And he's been caught quite a bit in that time, too. So, as he's aged, he's been running less and running less effectively.

by calig23 on Feb 20, 2026 10:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oakland doesn't steal

So that most recent number is a bit misleading.

by limozeen on Feb 20, 2026 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not really

His steals were dropping even before he left Pittsburgh.

by calig23 on Feb 20, 2026 10:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't deny that

But the numbers in Oakland aren't comparable regardless.

by limozeen on Feb 20, 2026 10:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Height/weight differential

I think the determining factor that will slow down Mauer is his size, 6-foot-4, 220 lbs. Kendall is a lythe 6-foot-0, 180 lbs. Big difference when it comes to catchers' knees.

by StickRat on Feb 21, 2026 2:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My point...

was that John's forecast has Mauer stop running at 27 or 28, however, Kendall has continued to run into his early 30s. I think it is possible that Mauer will continue to steal 7-10 bases per season well past his 27/28 season.

by cooper7d7 on Feb 21, 2026 7:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hear ya ...

but Mauer's size is going to slow him down, especially as a catcher. Even Dale Murphy, at 6-foot-5, slowed down when he hit 30, and he was a centerfielder. Right now, Mauer has the advantage of youth. At 6-foot-4, 220 lbs. though, catcher's knees are almost certainly going to diminish his speed in few short years.

by StickRat on Feb 21, 2026 5:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mauer, Morneau,and Greinke

although I have found the Twins fans(circle me Bert) that cone to KC to be some of the rudest I have seen(sorry, maybe it a small sample size) but I have great respect for the Twins organization. I made a statement to friends in 04 when Greinke was facing Morneau, that over the next 5 years(would love to have said decade) the Greinke-Morneau matchup would be a matchup of 2 of the top players in the game(how often can a KC fan say that, as of late) I would hope the Mauer-Greinke matchups are just as big...while i truly believe that Mauer is one of the most refreshing players I have seen, I hope that Morneau and Greinke can reach the level I believe Mauer is destined for.

by gashousegang on Feb 20, 2026 1:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Come to the Dome

And be treated to a lesson in Minnesota nice. them. I look forward to those matchups. I hope Zack hits his spots better in 06.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Feb 20, 2026 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There's no way...

By the way, before I begin I want to say I love your site and your books.

I also love these Crystal Ball features...

I dont agree that Mauer will come close to matching the projections. I think Mauer is nothing more than a good hitter in the .290 range during his prime years with 20-25 HR power.

His steals will never amount to more than 10-12 per season and probobably half that by the 2010 season.

All that said, it still puts Mauer in the top 2-3 catchers of the AL. At least until the next flavor of the month comes along.

Joe D.

by JoeD on Feb 20, 2026 1:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

In other words...

you don't think he'll ever hit LHP.

by Sulla on Feb 20, 2026 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The projection...

... isnt that far off of what you just said. He's a 20-25 HR hitter in the projection with only two years going over that (not unreasonable that he hit a hot streak and hit a few extra HRs a couple times, just like he can get cold and hit under 20 in a couple of those seasons as he does here).

You say he will never amount to more than 10-12 steals per year and John doesnt predict any seasons higher than 10 and only one in the double digits. Unless of course you will argue that he wrongly projected Mauers 13 steals this past year. I would have to say that its plenty realistic that he had 13 steals last year.

The only real disagreement in your two projections is that you only think Mauer will peak at .290-ish which is odd since Mauer has a great eye, hit over .300 in throughout the minors and hit .294 last year in what is certainly not yet his peak years. At that, John only has him hitting under .300 for his career.

I really dont see why everyone has such a problem with this projection. I think its hardly overly optimistic. Not every prospect pans out, but not every prospect fails either. I think this is a good estimate for what Mauer should do. I honestly think his ceiling is higher than this but I feel this is a more likely projection.

by grozzy on Feb 20, 2026 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hit the nail on the head.

I think that the problem with the projection if anything is that he doesn't seem to progress from the level that he is at now (with the exception of an extra 10 HR's a year). If the kid hits nearly .300 with great disciple as a 22 year old can you imagine what he is going to do at 28? I can see him with averages in the .330 range for the majority of his career. And in no way is that an empty .330.

by Terry Ryan Jr on Feb 20, 2026 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is my only beef

I think Mauer is a better pure hitter than the numbrs, but I don't see him hitting more than 25 homers in a single season unless he changes his approach. He hit around .310 for most of last year until the final week of the season (when he slumped) with almost no support hitting behind him. He did it by taking the ball the other way a lot and only pulling ptches clearly on the inside. His apporach, combined with his eye, will lead to more consistent .320 averages with decent support behind him. But it doesn't lend itself to a lot of homers.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Feb 20, 2026 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

steals

why mention that when John said he would not continue to steal and he had 13 in 05. That makes your statement void. Did you just overlook that fact? I can only think of 2 catchers that I have ever seen hit 290 with over 20 homers. If a guy put 3 or 4 years in a row like that he would seriously be in contention for the hall.

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Feb 20, 2026 2:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

just off the top of my head

Chris Hoiles and Mike Stanley both hit .300 with 25+ homers in 1993.

Just throwing out some names that aren't in the stream of consiousness anymore but were pretty good catchers.

"I may not be a class act, but I'm an American." Ron Artest on wanting to play for the Olympic team

by natsfan2005 on Feb 20, 2026 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

For some reason It came out 290 20 homers when I was thinking 300 25 homers. I was thinking of Pudge and Piazza. Really dominant catchers.

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Feb 20, 2026 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A man can dream, can't he?

Just curious, are you attributing Mauer's dropoff in games played to the American League ditching the use of designated hitters in 2012?

by StickRat on Feb 20, 2026 2:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

2012

No, he gets injured in 2012, missing 6 weeks and carrying over into the first half of 2013.

by John Sickels on Feb 20, 2026 2:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

2013-14

Gotcha. So Mauer will separate a shoulder blocking Prince Fielder from scoring an all-pivotal game tying run in 2012 inter-league play, prompting Mauer to badmouth Fielder for deliberately lowering his helmet into his shoulder. Fielder reads the quote in the paper the next day and takes it very personally, and come the off-season declares free agency specifically to sign with an AL Central club and go to the mattresses with Mauer and the Twins. Fielder signs with the White Sox and lays low until 2014, when he lights up Twins pitching to the tune of 19-for-42 including 4 homeruns on the final day of the season to not only propel the ChiSox to their first AL Central title since 2005, but also lifts him past Justin Morneau for the 2014 AL homerun title.

by StickRat on Feb 20, 2026 10:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Haha

I love it

by delomir on Feb 20, 2026 10:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Beef

My biggest beef is that he plays so many games. It was stated as an assumption that he'd stay relatively healthy, but I see that as the greatest unliklihood. otherwise I don't think the ratios are too bad.
I don't think he'll be a HoFer if he switches to 1B and puts up these stats.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Feb 20, 2026 2:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

So wrong

When he hurt is knee all you talked about was he wasn't going to be able to handle catching. He is to tall and he was a highschool catcher, so he was bound to fail. Then he comes back and puts up great numbers and catches. Maybe it is time to give up on the mauer bashing.

The one time in his career that he got hurt it was a freak thing. There is no reason to predict future injury issues. The knee problem happened at a young enough age. I don't see it as a problem unless he all the sudden he puts on 50 pounds.

Mauer is a freak. He will change the way we look at catchers in the same way Arod changed the way we looked at SS.

by Josh on Feb 20, 2026 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i love Mauer, but...

...to think that he's going to be a catcher for 150 games for all those years seems a bit unrealistic to me.

by sabernar on Feb 20, 2026 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he's in a DH league

no one says he has to catch all 150

"I may not be a class act, but I'm an American." Ron Artest on wanting to play for the Olympic team

by natsfan2005 on Feb 20, 2026 4:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yup

Have to love the DH.(not really) But it is a great way for a catcher like Mauer to pad his numbers. Over a 15 year career he may pick up close to an extra year and a half worth of ab's that nl catchers miss out on.

by Josh on Feb 20, 2026 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Doesn't look unreasonable to me

The career path that you've plotted out is extremely impressive, but as you said Joe Mauer is an extremely impressive talent and an above-average player already. I can't think of too many guys who could do the Double A to majors jump, spend most of the year on the shelf with an injury, and then come back the next season to hit .295.

He's got nice loft to his swing, but I wonder if it might be just a little too compact to generate the power that he should be capable of.

I live in the Chicago area and I can't help but be a fan of Mauer. It's not going to take much more than a bit of luck to see him become one of the great players at his position in baseball history. That might sound like hyperbole, but he's just a tremendous and rare combination of skill and talent, the type that doesn't come along that many times in a generation of ballplayers.

by mrkupe on Feb 20, 2026 3:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The twins look like a force....

In 2010 with mauer hitting .321 not to mention a .418 OBP. Then in kubels Crystal ball he drives in 110 and Liriano goes 19-7. I would have to say...World Series aspirations for sure

by joeywyen on Feb 20, 2026 4:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yeah

Those Portland Twins will look real good :)

Just kidding

by colinadam on Feb 20, 2026 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know your Kidding because....

The Vegas Twins will be dominate instead

by joeywyen on Feb 20, 2026 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Looks pretty good, but...

I think he's gonna have more then 1 30 HR season. We shall see.

by Justin & Joe on Feb 20, 2026 6:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

mauer

was a stud mlb hitter at 21..this is like, VERY rare.

despite being routinely pitched around in a weak lineup, stats are those of an extremely advanced hitter.

superb makeup, latent power potential - with his bat control, swing and size - will eventually become prominently displayed.

bat will play at 1st, 3rd easily several years from now.

at this point his career, for those reasons, imho, extrapolates (barring further injury)beyond both Piazza and Bench.

by dryice on Feb 20, 2026 9:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Is that luis Rivas in the background

hahahahahah, he sucks

by joeywyen on Feb 20, 2026 10:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Good catch

I'm going to miss his strut to the batter's box in time with his bumper music bass beat. Everything else about Rivas I will not miss.

by Jaerbesan on Feb 21, 2026 11:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I am more prone to use.....

The Baseball Primer take on Rivas

"Luis Oforthreevas"

It is accurate and hillarious.

by Terry Ryan Jr on Feb 21, 2026 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

overhype

sorry John but I think this is well beyond what we can expect.

Comparing him to the hall of fame catchers

Mauer:
Hits 1st
Ab 2nd
Games 3rd
Runs 2nd
RBI 3rd
2B 1st

This has him right at or near top of HOF catchers. And it also has him near or at the top of all the counting stats. Considering he had serious injury problems missing almost a full year in his first two years I think this is well beyond a normal prediction.

by pedrophile on Feb 21, 2026 1:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think....

people try to label Mauer too much....He's a very good young hitter who happens to be an excellent defenses catcher.

by joeywyen on Feb 21, 2026 1:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

love to see

I would love to see those who say this is beyond joe do their own crystal ball on him.

by Josh on Feb 21, 2026 2:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mauer

For those complaining that the projections are too high, isn't he supposed to be a superstar? I haven't seen a prospect touted more in the last 10 years, so why can't his crystal ball look like a HOF player?

If he can stay behind the plate, he'll be one of the top 5 players in the sport.

by jc3 on Feb 21, 2026 9:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Really?

BJ Upton. Both Drews. Both Weavers. Both Matt Andersons. Prince Fielder. Delmon Young. Rick Ankiel (look at his numbers as a 20 year old!) There's always a latest and greatest being pumped up.

by sidnancy on Feb 21, 2026 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

being pumped up

If you can't project Mauer as a HOF then there isn't a prospect out there that you can project to be a HOF.

by Josh on Feb 21, 2026 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No

I don't think any of those guys has ever been considered as good of a prospect as Joe Mauer was. Felix Hernandez is the only one I can think of that has been on the same level in the last 10 years or so.

by jc3 on Feb 21, 2026 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Josh

Josh Hamilton was hyped even more.

by pedrophile on Feb 21, 2026 11:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow!

What are you, the Drews, and the Uptons smoking? I've never seen (in the last twenty years) a high school player projected to be a hall of famer so consistently. No wait, I have. Griffey, Jr. and Arod. Hmmm...

by tmelander on Feb 22, 2026 3:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

HOFer???

"If you can't project Mauer as a HOF then there isn't a prospect out there that you can project to be a HOF."

You cannot project Mauer to be a Hall member.

It would be foolish to project any 22 year old as a HOFer. Especially someone with 600 ML plate appearances.

jc3: You haven't been paying attention. Delmon Young, especially, has gotten more press than Mauer. I haven't seen a ranking yet (and the way our fantasy league works, I look at probably a dozen a year) that had Mauer ahead of Young.

by sidnancy on Feb 21, 2026 4:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yes, I do pay attention

... and, what rankings are you talking about? I don't see where they intersect. Last year, when Mauer was still considered a prospect by BA & BP, they both ranked him #1 ahead of Delmon Young.

The top 3 hyped prospects of the last few years have been Mauer, Prior, and Felix Hernandez. All are basically expected to be HOF-caliber players. I don't think I've seen that kind of hype with Delmon, but he is considered the #1 prospect now, if you consider that to be hype. Mauer is considered to be the best catching prospect (maybe) ever, while Delmon is a tremendows OF prospect, but not on the level of a Vlad or (pre roids) Bonds-type player. Just my take.

by jc3 on Feb 21, 2026 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

subject

I so disagree. Projections are done for fun. No one is saying vote him today. I think you may be missing the idea of prospects and the crystal ball projections.

If you feel you can't project a guy to be a HOF career do you feel you can project a pitcher to be a future number 1? What about hitters to be allstars, or future mvp's? Is it wrong to project highschool kids as first round picks?

by Josh on Feb 21, 2026 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

prospects

as I mentioned below Josh Hamilton was hyped even more. Another that comes to mind is Ruben Rivera. And what about Mark Prior?

by pedrophile on Feb 21, 2026 11:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's just false...

Hamilton and Rivera were hyped to the extreme...they were not tons of different publications mentioning HoF in the same sentences. That was done with Mauer, and it shocked the hell out of me--the kid lived only a few miles away.

by tmelander on Feb 22, 2026 3:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs