Command I think is the most important thing.  Putting a pitch where you want it is more important than speed.  Kyle Farnsworth was throwing 100 and getting creamed.  It wasn't until he learned to pitch / hit his spots that he became a decent reliever.  

I tend not to pay attention to Babip, opponent batting average, or H/ip for young pitchers.  K/BB ratio is the one I look at the most.  Walks = unnecessary base runners and poor control of the strike zone.  if you're walking a ton of guys in rookie ball, that's not a good sign for the future.  Strikeouts are a measure of how dominant you are, and in a lot of ways they combine stuff with smarts.  A combination of those two things will tell you what kind of pitcher you're dealing with.  

In the very low minors, velocity and K/IP generally reflect talent to a greater degree than the other characteristics.  And I am more interested in talent at the lower levels than I am skills; because the skills can be taught and honed whereas talent cannot.

In the words of Sandy Koufax: "All they really do is look for the fastball; if you have that, they'll teach you everything else."

Generally speaking, if you have a good K/IP and GB/FB, you will succeed. The degree of your success depends upon how low your walk rate is, unless it is really bad. K/IP indicates that you miss bats, and GB/FB indicates that you have the ability to keep the ball in the ballpark, so ballpark effects will only affect you negligbly. I'm not sure that GB/FB can be taught as much as improving your control can through experience and good pitching coaches.

That's what makes Felix so good. He's got great ratios in all 3.

I really think that K/BF is a better stat to look by itself than K/IP.  A guy could be striking out 10 guys per 9, but walking 5 guys too, therefore having more oppurtunities for K's than a guy who doesnt walk many.  A guy might only have 8 Ks per 9, but he might be striking out a higher percentage of batters than a guy K'ing 10 per 9.

There really is nothing else that trumps it at the rookie level. But again you have to look at that level you need to look at projected tools, not the radar gun.

The second criteria would be left-handed. You can't teach that.

K rates are the most important pitching stat in Rookie Ball; if a guy is not striking many people out, he will almost certainly be a wash. However, if the guy is throwing like a circus geek with corn cob up his sphincter, there will be immediate problems. There was an example of this in Moneyball; the A's drafted some kid, (apparantly unseen) with good numbers, but was a mechanics nightmare and was gone in two years, even with though he pitched well in rookie ball.

I think missing bats is the most important skill in a young pitcher. Pitchers can (but not necessarily) learn control. Young pitchers can make alot of mistakes leaving them prone to high HR rates that may not be predictive.

I much prefer K/BF because many factors, including bad defense behind them can raise the BF/IP to obscure real differences in missing bats.

That said, I still am very dubious of any short season numbers. A significant number of the players will never progress as far as hi-A, so you can rack up great K numbers against hitters who have holes in their swings.

K/IP and all other K factors are what are most important to me when determining the future success of a young pitcher. I also try and see the pitcher throw if he comes to one of my local minor league parks as there is nothing like seeing a pitcher in person.

I'm going K/IP too at that age.  If you're missing bats down there you have the potential to continue to do it.  I'm interested in K/BB and H/IP as well, but we have to pick only one.  There have been plenty of examples of good K guys that gain control and the ability to pitch.  In addition, H/IP can be influence by the defense behind them and the park.  

If you're looking for one stat to go on at that age you don't want it to be based on their knowledge of how to pitch or their control.  Both can be learned.  Obviously there are extreme examples (Colt Griffin), but in general terms I'm sticking with K/IP as my starter.

I'm going to post a little case study of how I found a  couple of Giants pitching prospects that I am very high on.  Time will tell if I"m correct.

The first think I looked at when the short season rosters came out last June was for birthdates after 1985.  There were two pitchers on the AZL Giants roster that cought my eye, Waldis Joaquin(12-25-1986) and Sharon Martis(03-30-1987).  The next stat I looked at was size.  I noticed that Joaquin(6'2", 190 lbs) is bigger than Martis(6'1", 175 lbs.).  That immediately gave Joaquin a bit of an edge in my mind.  

As the season went along, I followed the daily boxscores and Martis put up some seriously impressive numbers for an 18 yo kid:  2-1, 1.85, 34 IP, 9 BB!!, 50 K's.  Joaguin's numbers weren't bad, but not nearly as impressive:  1-1, 3.64, 29.2 IP, 10 BB, 37 K.  Edge to Martis.

Near the end of the season, there was one boxscore that caught my eye big time.  Joaquin- 3 IP, 0H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K's!!!  Good God!  8 K's in 9 IP?  That means that only 1 batter he faced out of 9 didn't strike out!  Now, I'm still liking Martis' overall numbers, but suddenly Joaquin has my attention big time

Fast forward to BA's Top League Prospects lists.  I see both Joaquin and Martis on the AZL list and I'm really pumped now.  I eagerly jump down to the narrative on both.  Martis has a mid-90's fastball and fairly advanced secondary stuff and command.  Well, mid-90's ain't at all bad and the advanced skills certainly jibes with his numbers.  He's a prospect!!  On Joaquin, I see that BA also noticed the 8 K's in 9 IP and has a little more info to add:  He hit 98 MPH at least 8 times during that outing!!  Whoa!  Now we're talking!  I go back and look at the stats again.  18 yo, big kid, 98 MPH, 10 BB's in 29.2 IP!  Now that's actually pretty darn good control for those circumstances.  Bingo!! Another prospect

Conclusion:  The Giants have two very exciting young pitching prospects in the low minors, Waldis Joaquin and Sharon Martis.  Of the two, I would say that Martis will progress much more rapidly and is more likely, barring injury, to become an impact pitcher in he big leagues.  Joaquin, on the other hand, while progressing a little slower and more likely to hit the wall somewhere, has a higher ceiling and could be a dominant starter or closer one day.

As far as rankings go, it's really a tough call.  BA ranked Joaquin a little higher based on upside.  I ranked Martis just a tad higher due to more advanced skills from a pitcher with almost as good tools.

Pitchers are VERY hard to evaluate based only on stats.  The low minors have a lot of junky pitchers who have good K/BB rates but don't rank as prospects.  A good slider or change-up that gets hitters swinging at pitches out of the zone can produce big K numbers at low A ball.  AA hitters don't chase as much, or sit on the fastball, and if your fastball is average that means trouble.

For low level prospects you need a scouting report to go with the stats.

While I usually disregard very low level pitchers, I take notice of great strikeouts.

If those numbers do not drop off the following season, then I watch the pitcher more closely.  

However, I do not trust young pitchers to maintian their dominance and health as the climb the organizational ladder.

When one does, he becomes a contender.

Unfortunately, this method means it takes a pitcher a few years to reach that level.

I think projection is critical with a pitcher.  In a recent diary, guys brought up how pitchers in Low A or Rookie Ball with high K rates are a dime a dozen.

Keep in mind, scouts have to get a feel for whether a pitcher will develop pitches to maintain a starter or move to the pen.  Many pitchers can get by in the lower levels with one plus pitch and another good pitch.  To be an effective MLB starter, you need at least three.  While it's not an exact science, scouts look for this and the box score will not tell you that story at lower levels.

k/ip

next the makeup of the guy by scouting reports in order of rank: velocity, command, movement, projectability.  Other statistics and makeup may override low k/ip after looking at the guy closer, but I lean towards the philosophy that if he can't fool the low level guys yet, its going to be pretty difficult to fool more experienced guys.

Not always true, but often enough that it seems darn difficult to consistently find gems that don't have impressive low minors k-rates. Key word consistent.

things i look for in young pitchers that might be be future studs.

1- their delivery. I dont want any major arum troubles in the future so i like pitchers with smooth, easy, fluid deliveries and mechanics.

2- they need to have have the makings of at least two plus pitches. A little polish is necessary.

3- K/9IP ratio. There stuff needs to dominate the low minors.

4- Size, pedigree and makeup/worth ethic.

mechanics - pitchers with sound pitching motions avoid injury better, have better stamina, and should develop better control, velocity, and secondary pitches (I think, not an expert)

velocity - having a good fastball seems to be the best single tool for missing bats.

stats - track record that represents success against peers with k/ip and k/bb as the most prominent stats.

makeup - composure, work ethic, feel for pitching

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