Sounds like you might not be quite as enamored by the Dodgers farm system as BA and some other observers?  To hear some people talk, I thought I might see more A's and A-'s up there, or at least B+'s.

I was a little surprised to see Broxton so high, especially in front of Edwin Jackson.  I don't want to get into the reliver vs. starter debate again, but many people believe Jackson can be a top of the rotation guy while Broxton is destined for a closer job.  

I like Delwyn Young too.  He seems underrated by traditional scouts.  I also like Chuck Tiffany where he is.  He had enough control problems last year to warrant not being a B+ yet.

I know it's just a small sample so far, but what about Cory Dunlap?  I don't think he gets enough credit.  I admit that it is a small sample and some grade B guys are interchangeable on the list, but he is a patient hitter with power.  I think he should be a top 10 in the system.

that Edwin Jackson will re-establish himself as one of the best pitching prospects in the game this season.  He's electrifying, so long as his arm isn't hanging by a thread.  Remember, DePodesta could have had Randy Johnson for him, and didn't bite.  I think that speaks volumes.

Also, is Guzman a legitimate 6'6?  If he is, I'd be shocked to see him remain a shortstop.  And that plate discipline is downright awful.  Very good power, though, and his minor league numbers are nearly identical to Cabrera's.  Of course, he's sporting a career .312 OBP, and was at .325 last year.  

The lack of B plusses is the thing that most stuck out when I got my first glance at the list, and after looking at players in other organizations to whom John was so generous, I am a bit puzzled.  Martinez-Esteve, with his Jack Cust defense?  Wes Bankston, who has now spent TWO full years in low A, and experienced the predictable stats-inflation in his second year in the Sally League?  Omar Quintanilla, who has the tools of a utility infielder and has been dependent on good hitting environments like the California League to keep both his batting average and his OPB high?  Jairo Garcia and Chad Orvella, reliever prospects neither of whom established himself as Eric Gagne's set-up man in 2004, unlike Yhency Brazoban?

I know that John is sufficiently performance-oriented in his philosophy that it would be unreasonable to expect B plusses (or better, based on their tools) for Jackson and Loney after their injury-plagued 2004's, but guys like Tiffany and LaRoche (the latter of whom John gave a B minus, even though he matched Bankston's offense in the SAL at the same age, while playing 3B instead of OF, and LaRoche was not even repeating the level) at very LEAST should have B plusses.

I think LaRoche's grade is fine for where he is.  If he performs well this season, I'm sure it will go up.  I don't go by the BA rating of LaRoche because I think they really overrated him.

I still think Edwin Jackson should be a B+.  I think almost everyone overrates Loney and he maybe should be dropped to a B- (or at least lower in the list of B grades).  

This list is correct in putting Navarro above Martin, which BA did not do.  Navarro is a year younger (I believe that is correct and don't feel like verifying at the moment) and closer to being MLB ready.  I would maybe even drop Martin to a B-.  I'm not sure how they can get the same grade at this stage.  Though I have read that Martin has more upside, I would drop him until he proves himself at a higher level.

I know I am posting a lot, but I have been waiting for the Dodgers (Thanks John!!!!).

The Dodgers have 3 injured pitchers that I have heard a lot about.  You mentioned Miller in your intro, but where would Ryan Ketchner and Mike McGrew have ranked?  

I am a big fan of Ketchner (I have worked some in deaf education so I root for him).  He struggled in the AFL but posted good numbers during the season.  Do you know how severe his injury is?  I hear he had an ulnar nerve transplant (I have no clue what that is but it sounds bad).  I know McGrew had TJ; is he done as a prospect?

With regard to LaRoche's "68 games of poor play on his resume," I will raise at least what I think is an important question in prospect analysis:  should it be held against a prospect if he is promoted too aggressively and is suddenly over-matched in a league he was not prepared to be in, especially if he was not too old to have been in the league he was promoted out of?  Wes Bankston gets two full years in the Sally League, but Andy LaRoche gets two months there?

One of the big problems I have with "performance analysis" is that I think it has an inherent bias in favor of older minor leaguers who have been relatively coddled through the minors, and that means an inherent bias in favor of organizatins like the A's that draft a lot of college players.  An organization like the Dodgers that not only pefers younger, toolsier players, but "challenges" (or throws to the wolves, depending on one's interpretation) those youngsters with assignments to advanced levels (remember Loney skipping low A entirely, or Greg Miller pitching in Double A at age 18?), is not going to have prospects with padded stats, so the stat lovers will begrudge such an organization some of the respect that is showered on more conservative organizations.

Of course the Dodgers ARE now getting some respect from performance analysts, because certain agressively-promoted players have managed to put up good stats notwithstanding the odds stacked against them (Guzman, Billingsley, etc.), but in assessing particular players in the Dodgers' system, I think the performance analysts still let their bias show by expecting too much from talented players who did NOT adapt to what may have been one promotion too many for them at their age and skill level.  All of which is to say, John -- without a mean spirit and in good fun -- that if the Oakland A's had Andy LaRoche in their organization, the A's would have left him in low A for a whole year to destroy the Midwest League, and consequently you would LOVE Andy LaRoche.  Oh, you'll tell me I'm wrong, but I doubt it.

Does he have any chance of remaining at SS?  Do you think he'll ever get 60 walks in a year?

If the Dodgers thought they could live with a shortstop in the majors with Derek Jeter range, they COULD keep Guzman at short.  There is something to be said for getting premium offensive production from a premium defensive position.  Of course, the Dodgers would be constantly worrying about the physical toll taken on a very tall man from playing short.  I also think the Dodgers have felt spoiled by Cesar Izturis' defense at short (which includes plus range), and won't want to give that up.  And even if Izturis leaves as a free agent after three more years, waiting in the wings to take over SS will be Chin-Lung Hu, a defensive whiz like Izturis with a bit more pop in his bat.  Bottom line, I don't think Guzman will ever play short for the Dodgers.

LaRoche as a B-? Why?

If Y. Petit is a B+ for the Mets, how is Ryan Ketchner not even on the Dodgers list?

Mike Megrew is injured, but where would he be? Methinks somewhere alongside Greg Miller.

Steve Schmoll?

One can say of BOTH Ketchner and Petit that "their stats are better than their stuff," but Petit's stats are WAY better than Ketchner's, and Petit has put up his great numbers at levels where he was very young for his competition.  So Ketchner and Petit are not remotely in the same ballpark.  But I do think John's grade for Petit is too high, because I care less about a pitcher's stats and more about his "stuff" than John does.

Miller and Megrew are also not close to being the same sort of prospects.  Before he got hurt, Miller projected as a major league ace.  Megrew, before his injury, looked like a nice future #4 starter.

Steve Schmoll is a decent middle reliever prospect.  One of those is not going to crack the Top 20 list for a lot of organizations, let alone one as deep as the Dodgers.

Love the Dodgers system.
I worry about Guzman being overhyped by a lot of people. I suspect he'll have a somewhat disappointing year this year because of the high expectations although he is a good prospect.  Love Tiffany, Broxton, & Billingsley as prospects.  I also think Delwynn Young is a major sleeper who may surprise a lot of people in the next few years.  I'm a huge James Loney fan and believe if he's healthy this year by seasons end he'll be back at the top of a lot of prospect lists.  Another guy to watch who I think has some great potential is Corey Dunlap.  We have to see how he'll do in A ball this year, but he just destroyed rookie league pitching.

The Dodgers system is excellent.  Their a little short on outfielders coming, but what I like is that they have good prospects at all the key positions - 3 (Guzman Laroche), SS (Hu), P (Billinsley Tiffany Broxton) C (Martin Navarro).  Things never go the way their supposed to, but this still bodes well for the future, as they can spend money on outfielders.

I'm very interested to see what Travis Denker does this year.  His 1st year as a pro 2003 he showed good plate discipline and last year he displayed good power.  I want to see if he can consolidate those two aspects of his offensive game in one season.

Anyone have a scounting report on his D?  

According to Alan Matthews in the the chat at Baseball America on the Dodgers' system, Denker's hands and range are average, while Denker has above-average arm strength.

Denker's offensive numbers in two short-season campaigns -- first at age 17, then at age 18 -- have been too good for him to be written off as a future utility player when he has not even played his age 19 season yet.  What Denker does this year in a full-season league will give us a better idea of his ceiling, and even this one year won't be definitive.

It was Alan Matthews at Baseball America who called Denker a future utility player.  I have given John Sickels some grief today, so let me blast Baseball America at the other end of the spectrum for a moment.  Some of their writers don't believe that any position player drafted later than the first three rounds will ever amount to anything, and if they make exceptions, it is for athletic freaks of nature like Reggie Abercrombie, even if they show no discernable ability to play the game of baseball.  So forget what Matthews said and take a wait-and-see attitude with Denker.

Thanks John for the Dodger list. When I got your book the grade on Aybar was the one grade I was not happy with. Glad to see you moved him up slightly. Not sure why he's not getting any respect as a prospect from most sites. The 4th outfielder did a great job comparing D Young and Aybar at this link
http://fourthoutfielder.blogspot.com/2005/02/delwyn-not-so-young.html
Baseball Prospectus was the 1st site that I actually saw him touted as a top 50. Most everyone disagree's so this will be one that we can check in the future.

I've seen some analyst say that D Young has zero chance to be a major league 2nd baseman. Will his bat be big enough for a corner position is the question going forward.

I hope to watch DeWitt and Dunlap rocket up the prospect charts after a full season this year.

Ketchner is in Dodger camp and is expected to pitch this year so his surgery was not major. LA Times did an article on him last week and I'm sure everyone is rooting for him as he came across as a great guy.

I also hope that Guzman gets a full year in AA/AAA and then a Sept cup of coffee. I don't imagine Depo will want to start his clock unless he must and we should have no scenario where that happens this year. Hoping he makes AAA so I can take in some Vegas games. Just to watch him take batting practice in Vegas should be worth the price of admission.

Much more so than with Denker, Alan Matthews at Baseball America dropped the ball with Aybar.  He said that he sees Aybar in the future as an "extra infielder for a contending team."  That "extra infielder" offensively, on the whole, out-performed Rickie Weeks and Josh Barfield in the Southern League in 2004 playing the same position at the same age, and Aybar does have good defensive skills.  In fact, the 21-year-old Aybar's offensive performance in Double A (.276/.346/.425) looks good compared to Jose Vidro's performance (.259/.300/.447) in Double at age 21 in 1996.  A better batting average and OBA, but Aybar's slugging percentage was not as good as Vidro's.  But what if the stats were adjusted to account for league and home park differences?  Vidro played in Harrisburg in the Eastern League.  The Eastern League is definitely more hitter-friendly than the Southern League, and the Dodgers' Double A team is currently in Jacksonville, the Southern League's most extreme pitcher's park, whose fence at dead centerfield is thirty feet further back than dead center at Dodger Stadium.  

I did not "crap" on Weeks.  I said Aybar out-performed him.  But as I have made it clear above in my criticisms of "performance analysis," I don't believe stats are the be-all and end-all.  I'll trust the scouts and say Weeks is a better prospect than Aybar, but it is because of Weeks' extrordinary tools, not because of Weeks' numbers.  Even Weeks' great OBP was partly the product of getting hit by pitches all the time.  Aybar drew only five fewer walks than Weeks.

The one thing that prospectus mentioned that I think a few analyst are missing is that he's one of the few 2nd base prospects who can actually play the position. Hairston/Barfield/Weeks/D Young are all negative fielders. Hairston last year was the worse 2nd baseman I've ever seen at the Major League level.

Any reason hes not included on the list.Even thou injury shelved him last year,thought he was still one of the best pitching prospects in the game?

Why the dearth of OF prospects?

And that Cory Dunlap kid looks like a winner.  Is he anywhere close to MLB-ready?

The Dodgers traded away a very good outfield prospect, Franklin Gutierrez, to get Milton Bradley.  Also, in their last five drafts (2000-2004) the Dodgers have taken only one outfielder in the first five rounds.  However, keep in mind that many people think Joel Guzman and Delwyn Young are both destined to end up as corner outfielders.

As for Cory Dunlap, he was just drafted out of a junior college in June.  He won't be MLB-ready for a good long while.