San Diego Padres Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

by John Sickels on Dec 7, 2025 11:45 AM EST in News Comment 27 comments

Padres GM Kevin Towers with 2004 First Round Pick Matt Bush

San Diego Padres PRE-SEASON Top 20 Prospects in Review

1) Josh Barfield, 2B
Hit .310/.370/.450 for Triple-A Portland, rebounding from a mediocre 2004 season. Uncertain how he fits into San Diego's plans, but he has little left to prove in the minor leagues.

2) George Kottaras, C
Hit .303/.390/.469 in 91 games for Class A Lake Elsinore, then .287/.397/.416 in 29 games for Double-A Mobile, which is not an easy place to hit. Very strong on-base skills, and power should increase.

3) Travis Chick, RHP
Traded to Cincinnati. Went 4-11, 5.14 in Double-A with a 113/67 K/BB in 144 innings, 154 hits allowed. Ratios are unattractive, although at age 21 he still has lots of development time left.

4) Tim Stauffer, RHP
Went 3-6, 5.33 in 14 starts for San Diego, 49/29 K/BB in 81 innings, 92 hits allowed. He will do better than that with more experience, although he isn't overpowering enough to be a classic rotation anchor.

5) Brad Baker, RHP
Collected 27 saves for Triple-A Portland, 4.75 ERA with 75/32 K/BB in 66 innings. Still has problems with command and consistency, but still has a chance to be a useful reliever.

6) Freddy Guzman, OF
Missed season due to elbow injury.

7) Grand Moff Tagg Bozied, 1B
Limited to 26 games between Double-A and Triple-A by back and knee injuries.

8) Justin Germano, RHP
Traded to Cincinnati. Finished the year going 3-2, 4.01 in eight starts for Triple-A Louisville. Possible back-end starter if his command is sharp enough.

9) Paul McAnulty, OF
Hit 16 homers and 32 doubles combined between Mobile and Portland, also hit .344 in 38 games for Portland. Looks like a good hitter to me, although where he plays is a question.

10) Sean Thompson, LHP
Went 4-5, 4.67 in 20 starts for Mobile, 94/55 K/BB in 114 innings, 127 hits allowed. Not great numbers considering the context. Walk rate is too high for a guy who doesn't have a hot fastball.

11) Jon Knott, OF
Hit .250/.333/.483 with 25 homers, 34 doubles for Portland. Good power obviously, but other skills are so-so or worse, and he's already 27.

12) Matt Bush, SS
Hit .226/.279/.276 in 126 games for Class A Fort Wayne. No power, weak on-base skills, not much speed, defense was good but not as good as advertised when he was drafted, and certainly not good enough to make up for hitting of this caliber. Too young to say he is a busted pick for certain, but I don't like the early indications at all.

13) Chris Kolkhorst, OF
Combined to hit .292/.397/.372 with 21 steals between Fort Wayne and Lake Elsinore. Good speed and OBP, but lacks power and will have to prove he can hit advanced pitching.

14) Leo Rosales, RHP
27 saves, 3.18 ERA, 77/24 K/BB in 65 innings for Lake Elsinore. Throws strikes, good K/IP rate, has a nasty breaking ball and an adequate fastball.

15) Vern Sterry, RHP
4.58 ERA at Fort Wayne, 50/13 K/BB in 55 innings, 58 hits allowed. Settling into status as organization swingman pitcher, not a real prospect. Control is best attribute.

16) Chris Oxspring, RHP
4.03 ERA in 26 starts for Portland, 125/42 K/BB in 161 innings. Went 12-6, overall had a nice year. Deserves a shot in the majors in '06.

17) Ben Krosschell, RHP
15 starts for short-season Eugene, posted 4.70 ERA and allowed 83 hits in 77 innings. 59/18 K/BB was pretty good, better control than he showed in rookie ball last year. A sleeper, albeit a deep one.

18) J.J. Furmaniak, SS
Hit .266/.324/.437 with 14 homers before being traded to Pittsburgh. Old for a prospect at 26, but has some pop to go with a middle infield glove.

19) Ben Johnson, OF
Dramatic reduction in his strikeout rate resulted in best season of his career, hit .312/.394/.558 with 25 homers and 51 walks for Triple-A Portland. An underrated prospect who deserves more attention.

20) Wilmer Villatoro, RHP
3.88 ERA at Lake Elsinore, 44/34 K/BB in 60 innings. Hammered in Double-A, 15.55 ERA in 10 games with poor control (12 walks). He has enough arm strength to be a good pitcher but is still trying to figure out how.

I like Barfield, Kottaras, and Ben Johnson. I also think Leo Rosales is a relief sleeper.

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Comments

this is a sad system

who will be #1 in the next top 20? cesar carillo? i just can't get excited about barfield, and i keep hearing that kottaras won't be able to stay at catcher.

by jpahk on Dec 7, 2025 12:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Fearless prediction...

Matt Bush will make the major leagues...as a pitcher.

by templeUsox on Dec 7, 2025 12:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kottaras

Any catcher who can hit, people suggest he won't be able to stay behind the plate. That seems to last until AAA. Then, if he hits well enough, suddenly "his defense has improved."

How does a system that's supposedly been rebuilding for the last 7 years have so few prospects? A 24 year old reliever in A ball (Rosales) makes the Top 20?

The Padres may not make more mistakes than many other teams, but they can't afford to. Wait until Triple A to tell Barfield he needs to rework his swing? Wait until Stauffer struggles in the majors to worry about him learning a change?

Matt Bush. Sigh. The next time Baseball America takes a snide shot at the "Moneyball" school of thought, they'll conveniently forget Bush, Faison, Moore, and all the other tools failures.

by Hurley on Dec 7, 2025 3:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bush wasnt really a tools failure...

... he was just a terrible waste of a pick. He wasnt amoung the top few talents that year but he was a local boyl(I believe) and he was cheap and had a great defensive rep. There were plenty of questions about his ability to hit at all when he was drafted. A total waste of a #1 overal pick just because the team was too cheap to pick an impact player.

by grozzy on Dec 7, 2025 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I recall it differently

Bush was ranked in the Top 10 of all prospects that year by BA, almost entirely on the basis of 3 (2.5) tools: arm, glove, and reasonable speed (that's the .5). You're right that nobody was calling him a top 3 talent, but before the draft and for a year after it people defended the pick "because Bush was a consensus Top 10." Whoever was part of that consensus needs to hang up their spikes.

I agree on the cheap thing. If you're not going to spend the money, then don't "compromise" by spending $3 million on a local boy who swings a question marks. That's not a compromise. That's a lack of foresight and a failure of imagination. There were so many better choices, in talent, cost, or reliability.

by Hurley on Dec 7, 2025 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Baker

...is gone to Atlanta as a six-year guy. On a major-league deal, no less.

by Doc Scott on Dec 7, 2025 3:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

huh?

so brad baker signed with the braves?? if true, will he be vying for a spot in their bullpen or will he spend time in AAA

Sabean, stop giving away our 1st round draft picks!!

by z4 landshark on Dec 7, 2025 10:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Vern Sterry

"Settling into status as organization swingman pitcher, not a real prospect. Control is best attribute."

I didn' want to read this even though i know its true. He was a heck of a college pitcher and you knew he'd give state a good chance to win every time he went out there. I;m really rooting for him

by nms on Dec 7, 2025 4:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kolk

"Chris Kolkhorst, OF
Combined to hit .292/.397/.372 with 21 steals between Fort Wayne and Lake Elsinore. Good speed and OBP, but lacks power and will have to prove he can hit advanced pitching. "

I never saw him in person but he was another guy you had to respect when you saw him play on TV. Made some tough CWS catches, always willing to lay out. Seemed like a tough kid and a good leader and compeitor in college. good luck to him too

by nms on Dec 7, 2025 4:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

what?!?!?

"Grand Moff Tagg Bozied, 1B"

That might be the best name I've ever seen. I think I have a new favorite prospect.

by Cabbage on Dec 7, 2025 7:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

bozied

His name is "Tagg Bozied." That sounds like a Star Wars character, so I call him "Grand Moff Tagg Bozied."

by John Sickels on Dec 7, 2025 8:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

nuts.

Damn, I was really hoping his parents were just big star wars fans.

by Cabbage on Dec 8, 2025 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Worst Farm Team in Baseball

The Padres need to stop being cheap and pay for premium talent when they have a chance to draft it. Until then, they will be at the bottom of the prospect ladder.

Carillo was a good value pick last year. Lets hope things will turn around.

by Jeremy1Esq on Dec 7, 2025 9:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

...need to stop...?

This draft they brought in a TON of new talent...

Next year's top 4 should be some combination of

Josh Barfield
Ceasar Carillo
Ben Johnson
& George Kottaras

I won't even pretend to say they have a top-10 level organization, but they're also clearly no longer a bottom-5 org.

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 7, 2025 11:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think what Jeremy was saying was.....

....when you have the #1 pick overall, and there are players like Drew and Verlander available, you take them. Extend that to this season. We could have drafted Hochevar. We took Ramos. Possible #1 - #2 starter vs. future LOOGY.

If the Padres didn't think the top players in the 2004 draft was worth what they'd cost, there were other options. Sowers. Street. Bush was about the worst combination. Cost $3 million, major questions about his bat.

Most drafts are exciting for 12 months or so. Remember what a great haul we supposedly got in 99? I'm not going to do cartwheels over the 2005 draft until we see what Headley and Hundley and some other picks do in AA.

by Hurley on Dec 8, 2025 11:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

some title

Worst farm???

Try Cinci or Washington... San Diego will prob rate around #20...

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 7, 2025 11:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ranking anywhere in the bottom 3rd

Is a sad joke after a 7 year rebuilding process. Our roster boasts 2 homegrown players who can remotely be said to have proven anything. Even if you include Eaton (since we got him so young), Bay, and Perez, that's a bad track record.

Prospects are going to get hurt and flame out. That's a given. Still, we had too many picks from 99-05 to be in this state. Almost no cheap young talent on the major league roster, not much talent in the upper minors. A good 2005 draft won't change the fact that we wasted a lot of time and money in the previous 6 drafts.

by Hurley on Dec 8, 2025 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No, I'm still right...

"Ranking anywhere in the bottom 3rd

Is a sad joke after a 7 year rebuilding process."

I agree!

However, what Jeremy said was that the Padres, "The Padres need to stop being cheap and pay for premium talent when they have a chance to draft it."

I'm contending that the Padres ARE NOW drafting quite intelligently. BOTH Ceasar's are well thought of. Carillo is a STUD and Ramos, despite not wowing us with statistics is also rating higher than he did when we was drafted. 3rd-rounder Headley will be shooting up the prospect rankings this year.

I agree that the Bush-draft was a disaster, but that doesn't mean the 2005 one was as well.

And the Hochevar situation is still confusing when we know about his done deal he backed out of because he was listening to two agents. And we should WANT a part of that...?

Lastly, you said,

"Almost no cheap young talent on the major league roster, not much talent in the upper minors."

There's two things there...

First, the Padres have Peavey, just got Hill (for next to nothing), Ben Johnson, Greene, & as you said, Eaton (who is trade-bait)... - Not the most sublime collection, but not as bad as I think you indicate...

Secondly, we have Carillo & Kottaras in AA, Barfield in AAA, plus Ben Johnson (who finished the season in SD, and Guzman (who still should be decent)... Most teams would like to have those guys...

Again, I'm not saying it's great, just not as bad as a lot of people make it out to be.

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 9, 2025 1:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stretching the definitions again.

A good 2005 draft doesn't make up for the previous 6. That's especially true when the worst draft of the current regime happened just last year.

I've seen nothing to suggest that Cesar Ramos is particularly well thought of.

Bobby Hill will be 28 next April. He's done nothing in the majors and his AAA record is mediocre. Ben Johnson has a spotty record at best. Old for his league, repeated a couple of levels a couple of times. Guzman? Seriously? Teams would like to have a pinch-runner/5th OF as one of their Top 10 minor leaguers? I'm sure teams are falling over themselves for a CF who couldn't throw before he had TJ and needs an aluminum bat to hit the ball to the warning track.

Hochevar was the most talented player available with our second pick. I'd rather have the rights to Hochevar than spend 900K on a finesse college lefty with no upside. So what if he's hard to deal with? That's what professionals get paid to do. We had a chance to pop a #1-#2 starter who might have been ready for the majors in 2007. We picked Mike Bynum again.

At this point our farm system should look like a freshly filled bait tank. A wriggling mass of healthy silver fishies from top to bottom. Instead it looks like an aquarium with a leak and a bad filter owned by a forgetful kid. A few specimens at the top are doing OK, and the ones we just dumped in haven't starved yet. That'd be understandable if we'd only recently decided to build from within. We decided to do that in 1998.

by Hurley on Dec 9, 2025 10:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm stretching the definitions...???

I'm stretching the definitions? Whatever... The orignical posters said "need" - present tense... I ONLY said, that the Padres have ALREADY made steps in the right directions.

I agreed with you that the system isn't GOOD, but nor is it as bad as a lot of people think. Did you see the Cardinals top 20 review that Sickles just posted?

As for not seeing anything that says Ramos is well-respected, that's because scouts don't post their thoughts. I got that from a guy who writes for BA... It hasn't been printed.

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 10, 2025 9:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, you are

You're saying the Padres actually do have young talent. At most, the absolute outside, 1/3 of their roster could be construed as young and talented. When you're listing Freddy Guzman, you've scraped right through the bottom of the barrel to the dirt that barrel is resting on. So yes, we're not "young" and we're not "talented." Other than that your definitions are spot-on.

Present tense includes passing over Hochevar for Ramos. Not only did we miss out on a chance to draft impact talent in 2004, we did it again in 2005. Your super-secret sources aside, the most optimistic projections for Ramos are a #3 starter, with many observers saying that's too high.

I don't see how being in the bottom 10 farm systems isn't bad. Because we're not as bad as the Nationals or Reds, we're not bad? It's okay that we choked our farm because other teams have choked theirs?

by Hurley on Dec 10, 2025 6:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yes, there's talent

Wow! I never said passing over Hochevar for Ramos made sense from a talent standpoint, but if he continues to display the character issues he is, then I don't want him. Baseball history is littered with guys who had talent but couldn't control their emotions...

"You're saying the Padres actually do have young talent."

YES! We do.

We have Carillo, Kottaras, Headley, Barfield, Johnson, (OK, let's leave Guzman out - & Ramos too for that matter).

Our 2008 lineup should look like this:

C - Kottaras (24)
1B - FA
2B - Barfield (25)
3B - Headley (24)
SS - Greene (28)
LF - Giles (37)
CF - Cameron (35)
RF - Johnson (27)

P1 - Peavey (27)
P2 - FA
P3 - Carillo (23)
P4 - Hensley (28)
P5 - Stauffer (25)

So how can you say the Padres DON'T have young talent when the '08 roster (just 2 seasons away) projects (sure, there'll be trades) to have only 2 holes (1B and one starting pitcher) has 9 regulars 28 or younger, AND have only 2 guys in their mid-late 30's?

Futhermore, I NEVER said we had a "good" farm, I only said "it's not as bad as some people seem to suggest it is..."

Call it a C- or D, but not an F... And, it's on an upswing with one great draft and one of baseball's best evaluators of talent, Grady Fuson, in charge.

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 11, 2025 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I just saw this...

"Should pitchers Cesar Carrillo and Cesar Ramos, third baseman Chase Headley and catcher Nick Hundley emerge as teammates in San Diego in 2007 or '08, it would surprise few talent appraisers."

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/news/article.jsp?ymd=20051130&content_id=35333&vkey=n ews_milb&fext=.jsp

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 11, 2025 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

After the 2001 draft

It was common for evaluators to project our 2003 roster to include Burroughs, Nady, Ben Davis, Darr, Gautreau, with a rotation including Peavy, Phillips, and the then-star of the system, Tankersley. How'd that work out? You're projecting major league success for players with question marks large and small. That's Tony Robbins-esque optimism.

My point, which I believe has been clear, is that the organization should be stocked with young talent from the major league team to rookie ball. We've had 7 years to do it. It's not. Instead of layers of talent, we've got islands of talent. Small islands. Atolls, really. And you're acting as if the tides won't wash away any of the atolls we already have. Immediately after a draft the optimism runs rampant, and you're basing your evaluation of the system almost entirely on the 2005 draft. We'd have to be the luckiest team in history for that draft to pan out as you think it will.

You blast Jeremy for his claim that "The Padres need to stop being cheap and pay for premium talent when they have a chance to draft it," then try to cover for drafting Ramos over Hochevar. We don't know what would have happened if we had drafted Hochevar. There weren't any character concerns before the draft. Offer him a 4-5M major league deal. Forget what happened with Nady. It's not like we don't have a 40 man spot for him.

Baseball history is also littered with finesse lefties who overmatched college hitters but couldn't handle major leaguers. We paid 900K for a pitcher with a good chance to be no more useful to us in three years than Craig Breslow.

by Hurley on Dec 12, 2025 8:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

maybe...

Tony Robbins-esque optimism is only as flawed as being equally pessamistic...

My ONLY point, is that the Padres ARE making strides.

Should we have made more strides by now? Sure.

Do I wish we were in the top 10 rather than the bottom 10? Yes.

Am I concerned about the paucity of of prospects? Yes.

Do I think we have real, top level talent? Yes, a few guys fit that bill...

Do I think we're making progress? Yes (especially after last year's draft).

And I LOVE that Alderson is taking a hands-on approach and that Fuson is in charge of drafting/scouting.

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 12, 2025 9:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

More grounds for pessimism

There are 7 years on the poor side of the ledger. Same owner, same GM, many of the same people in the minor league system: Waller, Gayton, etc. You can be happy about Alderson, but under his command we've made several questionable decisions. So what we have is largely the same structure that got us here, with a new Alpha dog. Or a new Beta dog, since Moores still hasn't shown he's willing to invest in the draft. And the Beta dog signed off on the trades for Castilla and Mirabelli. Who was Towers going to trade for if Alderson had his hands off? Joe McEwing and Pat Borders?

A good 2005 draft, which no one can legitimately say we had yet, isn't a trend.

by Hurley on Dec 12, 2025 10:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Waller

Yes, he was recently "promoted" to first base coach. Maybe he'll help some minor leaguers adjust. So the minor league structure has been revamped, but it's far too soon to tell if the revamping will work. Even if it does, that doesn't change the fact that the minor league system right now is sad.

by Hurley on Dec 12, 2025 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs