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Los Angeles Dodgers Top 20 Pre-Season Prospects in Review


Any Hope?

Los Angeles Dodgers Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

1) Joel Guzman, SS
    Hit .287/.351/.475 with 16 homers, 31 doubles for Double-A Jacksonville. Something of a disappointing season, hampered by shaky plate discipline, but he was only 20 years old and is still an elite prospect.

2) Chad Billingsley, RHP
    13-6, 3.51 in 26 starts for Jacksonville, 162/50 K/BB in 146 innings, only 116 hits allowed. Top-notch pitching prospect still on track for success.

3) Jonathan Broxton, RHP
    3.17 ERA at Jacksonville, used as a starter and reliever. Posted 107/31 K/BB in 97 innings. Control problems kept his ERA over 5.00 in brief major league action, but his ceiling remains very high.

4) Edwin Jackson, RHP
    Pitched horribly for the Dodgers and in Triple-A, but recovered his footing in Double-A to some extent. Jackson has been terribly mishandled by the Dodgers. Can he recover completely? Poll question in the comments thread.

5) James Loney, 1B
    Hit .284/.357/.419 with 11 homers for Jacksonville. Still very young, power production has improved somewhat, but the big breakthrough everyone seems to expect is still tempting us over the horizon. Is it an illusion?

6) Chuck Tiffany, LHP
    11-7, 3.93 in 21 starts for Vero Beach, 134/43 K/BB in 110 innings, 91 hits allowed. Continues to post excellent component ratios. Main red flag is high home run rate.

7) Yhency Brazoban, RHP
    Picked up 21 saves for the Dodgers, albeit with an ugly 5.33 ERA. He can do better but is probably best-suited for short/middle relief work.

8) Delwyn Young, 2B
    Hit .296/.346/.499 in 95 games for Jacksonville, then .325/.361/.475 in 36 games for Triple-A Las Vegas. Plate discipline is shaky but he has a lot of bat speed.

9) Dioner Navarro, C
     Hit .273/.354/.375 in 50 games for the Dodgers. Power development has stalled out, but he is still very young at age 21 and should have a long career.    

10) Russ Martin, C
      Hit .311/.430/.423 in 129 games for Jacksonville, 78 walks against just 69 strikeouts in 409 at-bats. Power has stagnated, but has excellent on-base skills.

11) Blake DeWitt, 3B
      Hit .283/.333/.428 in 120 games for Class A Columbus, decent but not spectacular. Then he went 13-for-31 (.419) with three doubles and a homer in an 8-game trial at Class A Vero Beach. A very promising bat.

12) Cory Dunlap, 1B
      Hit .291/.382/.398 in 121 games for Vero Beach. Good on-base skills and can hit for average, but power is questionable considering his position.

13) Willy Aybar, 2B
     Hit .297/.356/.419 in 108 games for Las Vegas, then .326/.448/.453 in 26 games for the Dodgers. He overachieved in Los Angeles, but he did make real progress refining his skills this year.

14) Andy LaRoche, 3B
     Big step forward this year, hit .333/.380/.651 with 21 homers in 63 games for Vero Beach, then .273/.367/.445 in 64 games for Jacksonville. Strong improvement in strike zone judgment. His stock has definitely risen.

15) Chin-Lung Hu, SS
      Good year, hit .313/.347/.430 with 23 steals in 116 games for Vero Beach. Not a walk machine but his strikeout rate is quite low.

16) Scott Elbert, LHP
     Major improvement compared to '04, went 8-5, 2.66 in 24 starts for Columbus, 128/57 K/BB in 115 innings, only 83 hits allowed. A very solid young lefty.

17) Justin Orenduff, RHP
     Went 5-3, 2.24 in 12 starts for Vero Beach, then 5-2, 4.07 in 13 starts for Jacksonville. Maintained strong strikeout rate after promotion, although other numbers slipped. Control an issue but I like him.

18) Julio Pimentel, RHP
     5.08 ERA in 24 starts for Vero Beach, went 8-10, 105/43 K/BB in 124 innings but allowed 149 hits. Only 19 years old, has time to rebound from a season where he was far too hittable for a guy with a good arm.

19) Matt Kemp, OF
     Hit .306/.349/.569 with 27 homers, 23 steals for Vero Beach. Very impressive tools, skills are coming along. Main issue is plate discipline, which will be a challenge in Double-A.

20) D.J. Houlton, RHP
     Posted 5.16 ERA in 129 innings for the Dodgers, used as a swingman, with 90/52 K/BB. Allowed 145 hits and 21 homers. I think he can do better than this, but his window will close quickly if he doesn't improve.

Poll
What does Edwin Jackson's Future Hold?
He will never turn into an average major league pitcher
64 votes
He will be an adequate/average major league pitcher
140 votes
He will become an above-average pitcher
82 votes
He will become an excellent pitcher
15 votes

301 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 42 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Dodgers Farm System
Guzman- I don't really think he was a dissapointment.  He was playing half his games in a pitchers park and like you mentioned, is only 20 years old.
Billingsley- will be given a chance to compete for a spot in the starting rotation in LA next year.
Broxton- despite shakey control was impressive in the majors.  He has a great fastball and a very good slider.  He keeps the ball in the park too.  Here is a list of some of the guys that Broxton struck out last year:
Troy Glaus
Andruw Jones
Miguel Cabrera
Carlos Delgado
Bobby Abreu
Jason Bay
Albert Pujols- TWICE (!)

The joke in LA was that he dominated the great hitters, but was walking the mediocre ones.
Jackson- he's still young, but I'm not as high on him as I used to be.  At the end of last year, he was topping out at 91-92.  Like Billingsley, he will be given an opportunity to make the Dodgers rotation out of spring training.  Could probably use a change of scenery.
James Loney- Colletti is very high on him.  Loney will be given a chance to win the starting 1st base job out spring training.  Would be better off playing a full year at Vegas.
Tiffany- should be trade bait
Brazoban- is adding a changeup to his repertoire, was more comfortable as a setup man
Young- will likely move to the OF, excellent bat, mediocre glove.  Jerry Royster called him the best hitter in the Dodgers farm system.  Better suited for the AL.
Navarro- impressive plate discipline, good, but raw defender.  When Martin is ready, he may be traded.
Martin- one of the jewels of the Dodgers farm system.  Great plate discipline, very good defender, and he even runs well.
DeWitt- is probably going to move to 2B because of the presence of LaRoche.  Great potential.  Rumored to be practically untouchable.
Dunlap- will hit for high average and get on base a lot, but will he hit for power?  Another player who is better suited for the AL.
Aybar- was injured much of the year in the minors.  Showed advanced plate discipline in the majors.  Not much power, could move back to 2B when Kent leaves.
LaRoche- had an excellent year.  Will be given an opportunity to win a job out a spring training.  I'd rather see him spend at least half a year in Vegas.
Hu- excellent defensive SS, good speed, good contact hitter.  Could be trade bait if the Dodgers get a certain SS through free agency.
Elbert- another player who is rumored to be on Colletti's "almost untouchable" list.
Orenduff- would be a top prospect in other farm systems.  Should be trade bait.
Pimentel- biggest disappointment, besides Jackson last year.  Has great stuff.  Look for him to have a breakout year.
Kemp- one of the Dodgers top 5 prospects.  5 tool player, has a ton of potential, especially if he can improve his plate discipline.
Houlton- gave up too many HRs, but he was a rookie.  Not really a prospect, but is a cheap and serviceable innings eater.

by UncleMiltie on Dec 2, 2025 2:59 PM EST reply actions  

Tiffany "trade bait"? Why?
Can you please expand on your idea about Tiffany? I have him as one of my borderline minor league keepers, and I'd like as many informed opinions about his stuff as I can get.

by FunWithHeadlines on Dec 2, 2025 3:38 PM EST up reply actions  

My opinion
This isn't a knock necessarily on Tiffany's performance.  The Dodgers are so deep in minor league pitching talent that they have guys who are expendable.

by count sutton on Dec 2, 2025 5:28 PM EST up reply actions  

big tiff
big tiff is trade bait for good players. for example, tiffany be part of a deal for someone like barry zito.

trade bait doesnt mean tiffany for toby hall.

by npurcell on Dec 2, 2025 7:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Guzman
I don't think it should go unmentioned that Guzman's 2005 stats were adversely affected by a left shoulder injury that cost him some playing time in the middle of the season, and when he resumed playing, he was not 100% for the rest of the season.  At the end of May, Guzman was batting .293/.371/.575.  He injured his shoulder in June.  He hit 11 HR's before June, and only 5 HR's from the start of June through to the end of August.

Also, Guzman's numbers suffered from playing home games in the Southern League's best pitcher's park.  This year, he hit .323 on the road, but only .258 at home.

by CanuckDodger on Dec 2, 2025 3:22 PM EST reply actions  

Jax
Take this in good humor guys not as an attack... but I always love how Dodger prospect hounds want to give their hitters extra credit for Jacksonville but don't give the park much lip service when analyzing their pitchers. At most they will concede is that Vegas is too tough for their pitchers. I get the vibe they want extra credit for their hitters but refuse to admit part of their pitchers #s are helped by the park too. It may be subconsciously rather than conciously but it is basically trying to have it both ways...
"If you don't like Torey Lovullo, then you don't like baseball." Sparky Anderson

by natsfan2005 on Dec 2, 2025 3:27 PM EST up reply actions  

jax
that is completely true

by sanchez101 on Dec 2, 2025 5:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Edwin Jackson
I remember reading on the Dodgers website towards the end of the regular season that Eric Gagne was going to train with Edwin Jackson and I believe Duaner Sanchez during the offseason.

If it really does happen, I think it would be a big help for EJ

by peabody56 on Dec 2, 2025 3:29 PM EST reply actions  

as long
as Jim Colburn isn't around.  Hopefully Gagne rubs off on EJ and not the other way around.

by So Cal Bob on Dec 2, 2025 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Natsfan2005
All right, I will admit it, home games played in pitchers' parks account for Dodgers' pitching prospects striking out batters at excellent rates.  Such parks even cause them to throw fastballs with superb velocity and get wicked movement on their breaking pitches, all while being, on average, younger than the members of pitching staffs of pretty much every other team in their leagues.

Seriously, I am fully prepared to acknowledge that Dodger pitching prospects would be posting higher ERA's if they were working in the California League or Texas League, but "performance analysts" do not consider ERA's to be nearly as valuable as an indicator of future performance as K rates.  I myself am interested in performance, but I also am a stickler for "age versus competition" performance analysis, and really, at the end of the day, stats are not as important to me as tools.  Dodgers' pitching prospects are great because they have great tools and sound mechanics.  Those attributes are what makes Logan White draft them in the first place.

by CanuckDodger on Dec 2, 2025 3:52 PM EST reply actions  

K Rates
If the a pitcher can worry less about being taken deep then it's a little easier to feel confident about your stuff and challenge hitters. Perhaps helping that K/9 & K/BB - No?

Edwin is the poster boy for this. Overall i think your org has the best depth of pitching prospects... but mentioning park effects for your hitters and never the pitchers is a bit disingenuous.

"If you don't like Torey Lovullo, then you don't like baseball." Sparky Anderson

by natsfan2005 on Dec 2, 2025 4:12 PM EST up reply actions  

it's true
good pitchers parks affect everything--Ks, BBs, BA, HRs, ERA. well, in general they do. obviously some parks accentuate some things more than others--dodgers stadium, for instance, is a great pitcher's park and always has been, but it is usually exactly HR-neutral. it just suppresses every other aspect of offense.

by jpahk on Dec 2, 2025 4:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Fernando Mania
When was the last time the Dodgers developed a "great" starting pitcher?  Ramon Martinez was nice but he last pitched for the Dodgers in 1998.  Delino DeShields Fever!  

by Con on Dec 9, 2025 3:41 PM EST up reply actions  

by the way
this system is ridiculous. orenduff way down at the bottom, and greg miller not appearing at all. how many systems are there where they would be the top two pitching prospects?

by my count, there are 13 guys here i'd rather have than the A's second-best prospect (andre ethier), and four that i'd rank ahead of the A's #1 (daric barton). that doesn't even count guys who won't be on the 2006 list because they graduated to the majors. sigh.

by jpahk on Dec 2, 2025 4:31 PM EST reply actions  

well
you could argue that Herrera is a better prospect than Herrera because he's a potential 5 tooler, sorta like Kemp except more complete at the moment.

Compare Barton and Guzman for a sec. Guzman and Barton are both young and succeeding in AA. Both have one question mark that will have a huge impact on their future. Barton already has impeccable plate discipline, but power questions. Guzman has great power and more potential, but bad plate discipline. Both have plenty of time to develop.

You could argue that Barton has an even better chance to succeed, because developing power can come with physical maturity, while plate discipline comes with hard work (or you just don't have it). I'd rather have Barton.

It's hard to argue about anyone after that. It's harder to argue between hitters and pitchers. The top hitting prospects for the Dodgers are Laroche, Guzman, and Kemp. You could argue you'd rather have Laroche, but i would rather have Barton. Basically, the Dodgers have SOOOOO much potential all over, but there is almost nobody who you can say for certain will come close to reaching that. The closest to that would be Billingsley IMO. Someone that is comparable to Barton is Russ Martin, great discipline at the plate, young, with power. I might take Martin over Barton.

SO Basically, I'd rather have Barton then anyone except for POSSIBLY Guzman, maybe Martin and probably Billingsley.

As for Herrera... Of the hitters, i'd take Guzman, Laroche over him,  Martin as well. MAYBE Loney. Maybe Kemp.

I think Kemp and Herrera are very comparable.

This systems if EFFIN deep, just hope Colletti doesn't ruin it.

Oh, and:

If Beane could somehow con Coletti with Barry Zito and Jairo Garcia for Chuck Tiffany, Jonathan Broxton, and Milton Bradley (throw in Choi and we'll give LA Ginter and Robnett as well) and i'd jump up and tap my heels in the air three times.

I'd be curious to see what everyone else thinks, and what LA fans think an appropriate package for Zito is.

by ohad on Dec 2, 2025 5:49 PM EST up reply actions  

One thing about Barton v Guzman
It may not be as big as offesive growth, but Barton does not really have a position.  Guzman will most likely be moved from SS, but there is general agreement that he is athletic enough to handle other positions.  And he is not coming off of SS because his glove sucks but because scouts feel he will outgrow the position.

by count sutton on Dec 2, 2025 7:02 PM EST up reply actions  

re: miller
Miller should be good to go next year and be put back into the rotation and start the year at AA jacksonville. Dodgers had a little scare with his and him shoulder in the AFL but he got it checked out and everything was good.

this could concievably be the 2006 AA jax rotation:

billingsley-if dodgers dont want to send him to vegas
tiffany
miller
orenduff-same as billz
hochevar- when he signs (yes i still think he signs!)

by npurcell on Dec 2, 2025 7:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Logan White
claimed that Miller may compete for a relief job out of spring training

by sanchez101 on Dec 2, 2025 7:43 PM EST up reply actions  

yea i heard that.
i dunno if i agree with it though. Miller should be in the minors, back in the rotation, on his way tp fulfill his destiny of becoming a top tier start for the dodgers.

by npurcell on Dec 2, 2025 7:45 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree
Considering he logged so few innings in the minors last season after taking a LONG time off, he needs more time.

by count sutton on Dec 2, 2025 7:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Dodger system
i think the interesting thing about this review of last years list is that the only dissapointments are Jackson, and i guess Houlton. Compared to most of the other lists lately, where they seem to be split between success' and busts, the dodger prospects are seeming to atlest hold steady.  what does john think about the system as a whole?

by sanchez101 on Dec 2, 2025 5:36 PM EST reply actions  

oops
forgot pimentel

by sanchez101 on Dec 2, 2025 5:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Hypothetical Deal
The rarity of straight prospect for prospect deals was brought up in a diary not too long ago, but the reminder of seeing Edwin Jackson featured in the poll question got me thinking. It may not be a classic prospect for prospect trade (more of a stalled prospect kind of thing), but do you think either the Phillies or Dodgers would be interested in a Gavin Floyd for Edwin Jackson swap? Which team would hypothetically have the edge there?

By the way, as a Phillies fan myself I'll cop to being extremely envious of the Dodgers system. Philly fans are always talking about the lack of any kind of starting quality third base or catching prospects in the system. The Dodgers have two legit guys at each spot. Can any Dodger fan (or anybody with knowledge on the situation for that matter) confirm what I've heard about LaRoche, DeWitt, Navarro, and Russell being dubbed "untouchable?" I ask because of the incessant lackluster Abreu trade rumors all of which I would turn down. Any insight on either topic would be greatly appreciated. Take care.

by roboz on Dec 2, 2025 5:51 PM EST reply actions  

Untouchables
I would guess that LaRoche and possibly Martin are the only untouchables you mentioned.  Lots of Dodger fans figure Navarro will eventually get traded especially since Martin looks to be the better prospect.  Dewitt as a 2B would probably also be hard to trade, although there is a ton of 2B talent in the Dodgers system right now.

by ssjames on Dec 2, 2025 6:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Good Point
I definitely see what you mean about Navarro - my thought process about him is that it would be really tough for the Dodgers to deal him this offseason and that's what I'd like to see. In the future, I think he'll be the odd man out at the catching spot for sure. But with the LA situation as is heading into 06, I think he'd be a very difficult guy for the Dodgers to deal off.

by roboz on Dec 2, 2025 6:26 PM EST up reply actions  

DeWitt
Is a 3B, not 2B.

by count sutton on Dec 2, 2025 7:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Currently 3B, possible 2B
Sorry if I misphrased it, but I was saying that as there has been speculation of moving Dewitt to 2B, his value may be increased.  I know he currently plays 3B, but getting his projected power out of 2B would be a great bonus.

by ssjames on Dec 2, 2025 7:31 PM EST up reply actions  

alot of talk
i talk frequently with a person who is friends with the dewitt family and he updates me from time to time. last update was that dodgers are seriously thinking of moving dewitt to 2b because of the presence of laroche. since dwitt played SS in high school, logan white and his scouts think he can make the successful conversion. In instrux, dewitt was spending a lot of time at second base, possible a sign of his new position next year at vero beach.

by npurcell on Dec 2, 2025 7:32 PM EST up reply actions  

the rumored "untouchables"
colletti has made some mention of these rumored "untouchables".

according to published reports, beat writers think they are Billingsley, LaRoche, Matt Kemp, Scott Elbert and Blake DeWitt.

http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20051130&content_id=1274361&am p;vkey=news_la&fext=.jsp&c_id=la

^^^ at the very bottom.

i find it interesting gurnick doesnt mention martin, guzman or greg miller.

by npurcell on Dec 2, 2025 7:39 PM EST reply actions  

about dewitt
for the first month- 2months of the season, dewitt had the wrong prescription contact lenses and he had bruised ribs as well.

here are his numbers from june 1st to the end of vero beach's playoff run.

82 games played
318ABs
.318 average
.361 OBP
.491 SLG
44 runs
101 hits
24 doubles
2 triples
9 HRs
48 RBI
25 BB
44 K

.073 BB/PA
.128 K/PA

by npurcell on Dec 2, 2025 7:44 PM EST reply actions  

dewitt
i had no idea dewitt was this good after june 1st. regardless of laroche, moving him to 2nd seems to really raise his ceiling.  if he can hit like this and play 2nd, it'd be real nice.

by sanchez101 on Dec 3, 2025 11:19 AM EST up reply actions  

EDWIN JACKSON
i think im one of the few people that still has hope for edwin jackson to turn into an above average pitcher.

granted, he did get shelled in AAA, but he was more than solid in his time in AA this year.

When he was called up to the dodgers in late july, in his first two starts (marlins and astros) he was pretty solid. had good life on his fastball, ranging from 89-97 and sitting around 93mph. A circle change that he used as a K pitch and a set up pitch that at times showed to be a plus pitch and a pretty solid 82-85 mph slider. Then in his 3rd start in colorado his fb velocity was totally zapped. he was coming in at an average of 86 and even dropping down to 83ish. After that, news came out that jackson was hit hard with back spasms in the colorado game and it was something that bothered him til the end of the season.

Also, this fall/winter, he is spending time in arizona, staying at eric gagne's house, training and basically learning how to pitch with gagne. personally i think this is a great move because gagne can instill some fire and aggressive in jackson and not to mention maybe teach him that deadly vulcan change up. Since AAA, jackson has been afraid to go after hitters because when he did in vegas, a pop fly resulted in a 3 run homerun. If anyone can show jackson how to go after hitters, its gagne.

so after my rant, im going to say i think we will see a new edwin this ST. A more mature 22 yr old edwin jackson with something to prove to everyone.

man, i cant believe he is still only 22 yrs old, it seems weve been talking about him since the dawn of time.

by npurcell on Dec 2, 2025 8:46 PM EST reply actions  

Edwin Jackson
For some reason, Dewon Brazelton seems like a good comp.  Maybe not the headcase, but the hype to talent ratio was about the same for good but not great stuff.

by limozeen on Dec 2, 2025 11:22 PM EST reply actions  

brazelton
brazelton never put up the numbers like jackson did in his 2003 AA season at age 19

by npurcell on Dec 2, 2025 11:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Braz
Braz doesn't have near the stuff that Jackson has.  He has a plus, and sometimes plus plus change-up, but that's about all.  Average fastball, poor control, a breaking pitch that doesn't brake and can't strike anyone out.  Jackson has performed better and has WAY better stuff.
"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Dec 3, 2025 1:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Dodgers
Their top-tier prospects might not be the best, but, in my opinion, this is undoubtedly the deepest farm system in baseball.  Having guys like LaRoche, Elbert, Orenduff and Kemp at 14, 16, 17 and 19 is a testament to that.

I don't think Guzman's season was dissapointing at all.  He was one of the youngest players in all of Double-A, and he hit quite well.

It's scary to think how strong the level of pitching talent will be in the system if they sign Hochevar.

by Ian Miller on Dec 3, 2025 12:08 AM EST reply actions  

Braz/Jax
But, despite what you said, Jackson DID/DOES have GREAT stuff

by nms on Dec 3, 2025 11:41 AM EST reply actions  

Jackson
seems like one of the great flameouts of the past decade.  Not following the Dodgers system that closely, can anyone explain what John meant by 'terribly mishandled?'

by Doug on Dec 3, 2025 5:38 PM EST reply actions  

rushed i guess
made his mlb debut at age 20 where he beat randy johnson. Then from then on, he was labeled as the next dwight gooden and the expectations were so high for him.

then he struggled in ST of 2004, not being able to get the 5th spot in the rotation was spent down to AAA vegas where he did average. Called up mid season and then went down with a forearm strain in his second start when called up that basically ended his 2004 season.

by npurcell on Dec 3, 2025 5:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Flameout
Nobody is a "flameout" before their 22nd birthday.  I mean, jeez.  Roy Halladay was considered a top pitching prospect in the minors.  A lot of people gave up on him when he had the following numbers pitching for the Blue Jays at age 23, in 2000:  67.2IP, 107 H's, 42 BB's, 44 K's, 10.64 ERA.  Three years later, Halladay wins the Cy Young.  People who have written off Jackson are being extremely premature.

by CanuckDodger on Dec 3, 2025 9:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Denker
Travis Denker looks great.. what other dodger prospects emerged this year?  (seems like too many)

by ufo on Dec 4, 2025 6:42 AM EST reply actions  

the risers
denker, kemp. elbert, martin, kuo and laroche.

they all rose their prospect status pretty significantly from last year.

by npurcell on Dec 4, 2025 4:39 PM EST up reply actions  

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