MLB's Top 100 Prospects List for 2012

Moore dominated AAA and was pretty good in his brief showing in the majors. He’s only 22 and a certain #1 starter now. Harper, only 18, did struggle some at AA. Sure, his upside might be higher but Moore has absolutely done everything you could hope for.

And in a SD fan. It bugs me mostly because Erlin, Wieland and Sampson aren’t on the list at all.

Maybe you think Samp is a reliever. I’ll give that much. But Erlin and Wieland are roughly the same age as CK and putting up MUCH better numbers in the same league. At some point, the numbers need to reflect the potential with Kelly. If his K/9 was hovering around 9, maybe I could see it. But where is it, 6? A notch above? First he was dealing with being a SP full time. Then his command slipped because he was “dealing with added FB velocity.”. It’s all pretty silly, IMO. Kelly gets dozens of free bases because he was a Boston darling, and Erlin is ignored because he isn’t 6’5.

…somebody besides you takes a look back at a given list and admits their mistakes.

I thought he was a given as top 100 or even top 50.

Really thought we’d see both on there. I think Mayo seems to give previous top prospects a break if they’ve lost some luster.

Is very strange. Compare him to Gose (ranked 57), who at the same age had a much better season in AA than Hamilton has A ball and has more tools. Does this make Hamilton and his 100+ steals overrated or Gose underrated?

Think they are way too low on Rendon. I have in the 10-12 range.

but only putting Miller and Martinez in the top 100 when the system has 6 or 7 legit candidates is criminal. It’s like he completely ignored the system and just went with the two names that popped into his head. Tavares and Jenkins should be no brainers, and Wong, Adams, Cox, and Rosenthal should all receive strong consideration.

Also, I think he threw way too many ’11 draft guys in there, and peppered the top 50 with them. This list reeks of lack of effort for me.

Moore over Harper - I like that a lot. Harper is awesome but it was at A ball. Delmon didn’t get quite the hype but everyone loved him and it was only as he moved up the ladder that his flaws were exposed. Will this happen to Harper? I doubt it, but the risk is there. I rank Moore & Trout over Harper.

2) Yankees prospect Manny Banuelos at 13. I think too high but maybe only 10 spots. Definitely like him more than Pomeranz. Hultzen vs. Banuelos seems ceiling vs. probability.

3) Texas Rangers third base prospect Mike Olt at 43 - statistically and age would put him a lot lower. I wonder how high scouting puts him? I have to think the AFL showing got to peoples heads too much.

4) San Diego Padres prospect Casey Kelly at 50 - I like it. Stuff is there results to follow. I hope.

5) I think outfielder Aaron Hicks at 72 is too high, and I’m a Twins fan - also like it. Scouts still love his potential. I hated on Maybin. Now I realize that guys like that need to only hit a little combined with speed and great D and they will contribute. And if they hit as expected then look out.

6) Addison Reed at 100 - excellent relievers seem to get underrated, is Reed in this category?

seems really low at 88. An teenager putting up a K/BB of 4.5 in the Sally is pretty impressive. I’d take him over May, Peacock, or Cosart.

Mayo’s name may be attached to the rankings, but (like Goldstein, for instance) the list is generated solely (or very very nearly so) by the opinions of MLB “insiders”, rather than independently constructed.

Curious, the absence of Taveras and Wong, and Tyrell Jenkins. But as mentioned above, Taveras in particular. Borderline bizarre omission.

Also, I agree with all of your bullet points, John. I would consider the possibility of Moore above Harper…but I’d never put any pitcher above Trout, who’s potentially Michael Bourn with much more pop. Trout, even if he’s only a 15-18 HR guy, will be a 6-7 win guy in his prime. He’s clearly the best prospect going, to me.

A 20 year old who dominates 3 leagues (A, A+, AA) sporting a combined 10+ K/9 and a K/BB of just under 5 doesn’t warrant top 100 while Casey Kelly, who gets lit up like a Christmas tree is 50th? I guess the “stuff” narrative wins again…

Delgado is ranked a bit higher compared to other lists I have seen. So is Yelich, but what he did this year at age 19 makes him deserving. I am also surprised Archie Bradley is so high given that he hasn’t played yet. But John was also aggressive in grading Bradley. I still think I would rank Bauer, Gerrit Cole, Skaggs, over Taillon.

Far too many of you are overvaluing stats - and the wrong ones for that matter.

K and BB ratios are important - but stuff is just as important. (Ex: Hutchison/Erlin…both have fantastic control and K/BB ratios but their stuff doesn’t project to be more than a Shawn Marcum type.)

HR and SLG are important - but plate discipline (K/BB ratios), approach, and projectable frames are probably more important.

I’m guessing too many of you just look up guys HRs and RBIs and SLGs in bballreference and then go mainly off that.

Thought he would make the list

Casey Kelly, Aaron Hicks, Chris Archer, Brody Colvin, Sammy Solis, Leonys Martin, Tim Beckham, Matt Dominguez, Francisco Peguero, Taylor Guerrieri

I’d take Moore over Harper and Trout in a second. Players on Mayo’s list with not enough Pro data ranked much too high.

I know John likes him too, but I’m surprised to see him this high.

Frankly, I find that ridiculous. Is east coast bias and Yankee hype so strong that as soon as one of their guys gets traded he immediately gets dinged a few spots in the rankings?

I’m actually pretty high on Olt. He puts up offensive numbers like a lumbering, slugging 1B/DH-type with lots of walks, power and K’s, but does it while playing some of the best defense at third base of all the 3B prospects in baseball, from what I’ve read. I haven’t seen him play in a couple years, but if his defense really is still great, his floor seems like Marc Reynolds only with excellent defense at third, with a ceiling of perhaps Ryan Zimmerman or Matt Williams.

To me, that’s a top-30 prospect, and if he has a big year in AA he could go as high as top-10 for me next winter.

don’t get the love for Taveres?

People seem to ignore the scouting reports on him and oogle over his numbers (which are quite sexy).

From a Keith Law Chat.

He’s a prospect, but that’s a max effort swing. Had a scout tell me he’s seen Taveras lose his helmet because he swings so hard.

It’s Low-A folks. Numbers matter, but at the most, scouting reports are at least equal with them at that level. Yes his numbers are phenomenal, but to me he’s a back-end top 100 prospect. Certainly not a blatant omission.

/waits for firestorm

-I really dont like Banuelos that high, he is overrated
-I also dont like Betences that high, dont see him as SP, but more like hardthrowing reliever
-where is Erlin? no Top 100? really?
-for me Harper is still no. 1

Storen was ranked in the 40’s two years ago. I don’t see him as a prospect being 60 places better than reed. I know the prospect classes are different but it seems like ranking reed that low is more a judgement on the sox system overall than reeds talent.

I know I have Astros bias, but that seems real low. Guys like Smyly and Mason Williams above him….

13? What are they smoking.

Billy Hamilton is insanely overhyped. The old adage, “you can’t steal 1st base.” Hamilton is a poor man’s Willie Harris with better baserunning skill…MAYBE. Hardly worthy of top 100 ranking.

Too much infatuation with Red Sox’ prospects. Ditto the Royals.

Tim Beckmam on the list? Good grief. Jae Lee ranked too low.

I’m not sure I would have him as high as they put him, though I think he does compare very nicely with #29 Martin Perez (a little smaller, but similar repertoires, and better performance throughout his career). Am I off base with this comparison? Or is Perez ranked too highly as well?

Paxton is the #2 pitching prospect in baseball for me. I’m expecting ferocity.

the second highest ranked Red Sox prospect? I love Brentz but he’s nowhere close to 2nd for me. I would put Brentz 5th.
Bogaerts
Barnes
Lavarnway
MIddlebrooks

On second thought why is Manny Banuelos at 13 and Matt Barnes not making the top 100. Matt Barnes is better. Barnes is way better than someone like Alex Myer or Drew Smyly or Sammy Solis. John had Barnes at a B+ and Banuelos at a B and Solis at a B-. Whatever, John is way better at ranking then Mayo.

He’s good, but I understand him not being higher and i would likely even have him lower. If he becomes a starter is one thing. And I know it’s been said, but it’s so hard for a reliever to be that valuable. maybe WAR isn’t quite catching their value (major league teams certainly value them judging by the contracts). But just compare Papelbon, say, to an inning-eater like Jeff Francis. Each has pitched 6 years plus a partial season in the majors. Francis has 16.5 career WAR, Papelbon 15.1. And Francis got injured. he wasn’t a bad prospect himself, but as a nothing special major leaguer over-all, he was a little more valuable than a guy who has closed and done it quite well at times.