Are we underrating Manny Banuelos?
by The Congo Hammer on Jan 28, 2012 3:49 PM EST
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Around Minorleagueball, there seems to be a pretty strong opinion that Baneulos and Betances are very close, with some giving Betances the edge and more giving it to Banuelos, but often by a small margin. However, there is one big difference between the two players... Betances is 24, Banuelos is 21. The difference in projection for the two of them is pretty clear...Betances has a much worse bet of improving his control, and Banuelos was playing at a high level for his age. He didn't wow as much as he did last year, but he has also moved through the system quickly after his breakthrough, much faster than Betances.
People give Perez a pass when his struggles have been much more pronounced at higher levels, but I think there's a bit of a Yankee-hype backlash going around here, focusing more on what he didn't do than what he did do in his age 20 season. He still held his own with a decent K rate and good GB tendencies, which will play well in Yankee Stadium. With another year in Triple-A to work on his stuff, I think there's a very real chance he gets to focus more on controlling his stuff and refining his secondary stuff to become a #2 or #3 starter with Latos-like upside.
I haven't read MLB.com or PP's justification for the Banuelos ranking, just trying to figure if they are seeing something that we are not. And for the record, I'm a Red Sox fan.
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Is Mat Latos superior to Gio Gonzalez?
If at all?
Absolutely
Look at the BB alone. Gio walks 4+ a game, Latos just north of 2. HUGE difference.
Not Top-10
too many great pitching prospects to be in top-10, but he should def b in the top 20
by Noah McKinnie Braun on Jan 28, 2012 5:01 PM EST reply actions
Not even close to the top 10
Somewhere in the 15-30 range for pitchers, in my opinion. Great stuff, and very young, but there are too many great pitching prospects at the moment who didn’t experience a major hiccup in their development last year (his control declining precipitously).
+1
I have him at 26 on my pitcher’s list.
by cookiedabookie on Jan 28, 2012 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure I'd have even gone that far.
The statement: “but there are too many great pitching prospects at the moment” is about all that needs to be said. Banuelos might be a fine pitching prospect and in other decades might be pretty high on people’s lists. But the last few years have given us some pretty darned impressive arms, guys who stand out with flashier numbers or better stuff than Banuelos currently possesses. I don’t know if it really takes anything away from him to say that he’s not a “top 10 pitching prospect” in this day and age.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 28, 2012 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
Honestly Ted Lilly might be his ceiling
I’ve seen him pitch a couple of times and never saw that 93-95 MPH fastball people were talking about, he sat at 89-91 and hit 94 once for me and that was a stadium gun and you know those are fast. He has a great changeup, but his command of his pitches was below average.
I think we're overrating him a lot, actually.
Player A (Age 21): 114 IP in AA, 9.47 K/9, 4.03 BB/9, 3.74 FIP; 28 IP in AAA, 10.93 K/9, 6.43 BB/9, 3.84 FIP.
Player B (Age 20): 95.1 IP in AA, 9.98 K/9, 4.70 BB/9, 4.01 FIP; 34.1 IP in AAA, 8.13 K/9, 4.98 BB/9, 3.90 FIP.
Both players are also undersized lefties with a mid-90s fastball.
Player B is Banuelos this past season, and Player A is Mauricio Robles in 2010. Who? Exactly. He snuck onto the back end of some top 100 prospect lists that year, and didn’t even make most of them. If Banuelos were not on the Yankees, he might be ranked in the top 50, but that’s probably a stretch. Banuelos on team X would probably be more of a 50-75 guy at best.
Not a great comp at all, really.
Banuelos’ previous seasons were better than Robles, who has been the real life version of “Wild Thing” Vaughn. Banuelos did take a step backwards this year with his control, but we don’t know if that’s just a blip or part of a bigger problem.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 28, 2012 6:57 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Agree with you TTIF. And I have him at 50 on my overall list, the community had him at 51. I think most people agree that is the general area he should rank, +-15 spots. I think people are overreacting to one prospect ranking (Mayo) which seems too optimistic.
by cookiedabookie on Jan 28, 2012 9:50 PM EST up reply actions
Voted yes
with the full caveat that I rarely make any extended non-Cubs list, so simply basing my comments of general perception on how it seems fans here feel.
But the ceiling is plenty high (I mean … in a ridiculously best case scenario, some seem to think the curveball can be plus, and if that’s the case, that’d be three plus pitches). There seems to be enough people that feel that the problems for him, control wise, resided with him having to adjust to his new found power.
Considering age, ceiling, and the fact that he had decent control before this year, I think, for now, that you give him some benefit of the doubt on turning the control/command around. Now, there have been arms that hit AA and they simply couldn’t get away with stuff they did in A ball, and thus, we get a more accurate view of their command/control, but it’s one year in AA right now.
Now, that said, is he a top 10 pitching prospect and a top 20 prospect? In general, on the latter, I’d probably put him a bit lower than top 20, but I always felt 40 seemed a bit low (again, never make a full list). For the former, I’m not sure.
voted yes more as an answer to the "underrating" part
than a comment on his top 10 pitching prospect status, btw.
No we're not
mlb.com, scout, and project prospect are overrating him. I have him right around where John has him. I have him at a B. He’s nowhere close to a top 10 pitching prospect, probably in the 40-50 range for me.
okay, maybe that was undrerrating him a bit
looking back, I would probably put him in the 30-40 range. I don’t think he’s as good as Garrett Richards though
Matt Barnes is better
than Banuelos and is 25 spots lower than Banuelos on the community prospect list. Banuelos got a B from John, and Barnes got a B+. Addison Reed is also way better than Manny Banuelos and is 27 spots lower. Banuelos is part of the Yankee hype machine. I’m glad John dosen’t fall for the Yankee hype machine like most prospect rankers
Wow....just wow.
Matt Barnes hasn’t pitched a single game in the minors and you KNOW he’s better than Bans who is 1 year older but already at AAA. Nuff said about,
As for Addison Reed…..he’s 2 years older than Bans and is a relief pitcher.
DESPITE his control issues last year Bans still had a 3.90 FIP, struck out over 8/9 IP and did it in his first taste at AAA as a 20 year old.
Even if you don’t agree with Mayo’s #13 ranking you people are incredibly biased against him because of who he plays for. it kills me that every other ranking is credible expect those for Yankee prospects. Hilarious and pathetic all at the same time.
by YnksFnSnc78 on Jan 29, 2012 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
well John has Barnes better than Banuelos
and when I haven’t seen a prospect, like Barnes, and they have no stats, I usually agree with John. Also I totally agree with John’s Banuelos grade. How am I incredibly biased when I agree with John? I like some Yankees prospects. Reed is much sager than Banuelos, and has better stuff. 3.90 FIP is not good, it’s barely better than league average. Somebody did a study that Yankees prospects are overrated so there goes your last argument.
you seem biased but it appears to be more of a bias on your one time viewing Banuelos
As much respect as I have for John, when I hear many sites that are scouting based then I will lean towards them. I think you are seriously underestimating his stuff. A LHP with a 92 MPH fastball and a plus change is an elite prospect. He has his warts. But I can see why scouts rank him as highly as they do.
I don't think a lefty with a 92 mph fastball
a plus change, and horrible control is an elite prospect. I think if he had average control he would be a top 25 pitcher for me, but he’s in the 40-50 pitcher range for me.
Seriously?
You are going to ignore the three years before last when he showed above average control, and focus solely on last year’s results? As a 20 year old in AA and AAA? Really? If he doesn’t bounce back in the control department this year, fine you have an argument, but otherwise a statement like “horrible control” is jumping the gun.
by cookiedabookie on Feb 2, 2012 9:57 PM EST up reply actions
Yes because one game tells you everything you need to know
by cookiedabookie on Feb 2, 2012 11:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Someone needs to make Bososx13 a major league GM
cookiedabookie, you can be Billy Beane.
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Feb 8, 2012 3:33 AM EST up reply actions
Alex Torres
is also better than Banuelos in my book. Here’s a list of people the community ranked below Banuelos who I would rank above
Jake Odorizzi
Brad Peacock
Nestor Molina
Garrett Richards
Noah Syndergaard
Trevor May
Tyrell Jenkins
Drew Hutchison
Keyvious Sampson
Chad Bettis
Matt Barnes
Addison Reed
Our of curiosity
by what criteria are you ranking Banuelos behind these guys? Numbers? Stuff? You seem very passionate about this so I’m curious what your thought process is other than Banuelos is a Yankee prospect therefore he’s overrated.
http://www.yankeeanalysts.com
I think Banuelos'
control is not very good at all. And most of these guys, maybe not Molina have better stuff than him, and Molina has much better numbers. Usually if I don’t know much about a prospect, I defer to John. John ranks all of these guys above Banuelos.
So last year
John had him as a B+ prospect at A+/AA but a year later when he experiences some control issues at AA/AAA but still sports a 3.90 FIP he’s no longer a top pitching prospect?…..at age 20….at AAA. What a joke.
by YnksFnSnc78 on Jan 29, 2012 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
Joke's on you
He was a B prospect last year, not B+
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/12/15/1878701/new-york-yankees-top-20-prospects-for-2011
Your really just hating because he's a yankee
Most of these guys haven’t even pitched above A+ ball, some of them haven’t even thrown a professional inning. Hell many of these guys are several years older and don’t have numbers as good as banuelos
Most people assume yankee=overrated
Fox’s scouting has him as there #9
PP has him #9
MLB has him #13
Scoutingbook.com has him as #16 and still the 2nd best southpaw
baseballnewshound has him as one of their 6 best starting pitching prospects
the lowest I’ve seen him ranked so far is #26.
With Banuelos, I think that despite the perceived act of professional sites and likewise "overrating" him, I think every fan and wannabe scout might actually underrate him by just as great a margin.
Lefties that throw low-mid 90′s is pretty damn good, the guy throws just as hard, if not harder than many SP in the league right now that can be considered #3 caliber and above.
I do understand the gripe about command, but considering this is a new occurrence for Banuelos it’s not even improbable to think that he’ll regain his control (which from what I’ve found online most of his problems stem from nibbling at the strike zone than actual lack of command…we actually saw a brief example of this in his ST games last year)
Instead of giving a legitimate arguement about why he is that good, you just pointed out the obvious.
What does his fastball average? 91-92? The issue I have is that when people here mid 90s fastball, they instantly think of a guy who averages 95.0. A grand total of 2 pitchers did that last year.
And since when does throwing in the low to mid-90s mean that the player should be a top 10 pitcher? The velocity and stuff in general is nice, but it isn’t top notch. The command isn’t good. The catergory that Banuelos is really impressive in is ARL.
Did I say it entitles him to be a top ten?
I feel he’s in the top 25 for sure but the order doesn’t concern me because outside of those in the top 10 its just who fits that particular scouting groups preferences. Banuelos command has been good every year except this past year, that makes it a outlier than what you seem to think.
I don't think he's top 25
When I saw him, his velocity was 89-91, nothing special. His control was awful.
Your arguement seemed focused on why his top 10 or so ranking is justified.
That caused the confusion.
I don't get what you're saying.
The thing I said was I would rank Banuelos below these players that the community had above him
Jake Odorizzi
Brad Peacock
Nestor Molina
Garrett Richards
Noah Syndergaard
Trevor May
Tyrell Jenkins
Drew Hutchison
Keyvious Sampson
Chad Bettis
Matt Barnes
Addison Reed
Alex Torres
No problems
my reasoning was just that he does justify top higher rankings but how high I can’t say. as a yankee fan I do love seeing Manny that high, but I do wish that they would have just two different lists for position players and pitchers because its impossible to rank a pitcher and hitter as better or worse relative to the other.
I’ve heard scouts say he sits 91-94 and touches 96. In addition he’s a lefty with a plus plus curve and an above average curve. The ONLY knock about him was his control and that was an issue that did not manifest itself until 2011. There’s an obvious bias against him seeing as how most prospects are still in the minors because they have issues they need to address before going forth. The fact that people have more of an issue of Bans being ranked that high but have NO issues with guys that are yet to be tested being ranked higher amazes me.
by YnksFnSnc78 on Jan 29, 2012 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
I know Yankee fans will hate to here this
but I think Banuelos has a chance at going Tyler Matzek/Andrew Brackman/ Drake Britton/Stolmy Pimentel next year. The two Red Sox prospects were weird, their walk rates weren’t that bad last year, but they skyrocketed this year and they had awful seasons. Brackman had a high walk rate, but Banuelos was even higher. Banuelos resembles Matzek a little. Both tremendously outperformed peripherals. Matzek did have a little worse walk rate, but he also had a better K rate
Are you seriously comparing 5-11 banuelos who despite the walks this year still
repeats his mechanics and delivery extremely well to a 6’11 Andrew Brackman who walked 75 men in 96 innings and couldn’t control his body at all?
Look at Banuelos walk rates prior to 2011, they were not a problem, in fact command was actually his strength.
Dude just give up these guys don’t compare well to Banuelos at all not in delivery, body type, stats or even pitch selection.
oh
and I know as a sox fan you believe all players who ever worn pinstripes are all overrated and terrible, so I take your protests with a grain of salt
bad comps
Matzek::: Hahaha….wow….He never had a BB/9 lower than 6.2 and his ONLY season with an FIP under 4.00 was in 2010 at low A ball.
Brackman’s MAJOR problem from the beginning was his control, unlike Bans who only had this issue in 2011.
Britton: Not sure what his issues were last year but his control and all of his other peripherals just went south. Bans however, maintained most of his peripherals (K/9, H/9, HR/9, LOB and BaBIP) outside of walks last year.
Pimentel: Stopped being a real prospect after the 2010 season. He is a product of Sox hype. His BB/9 didn’t turn for the worse nearly as much as his H/9 and a career low K/9.
If control is the biggest issue Bans has to deal with for 2012 then I’m confident he’ll conquer that challenge. If anything, I think he was too intimidated by the hitters at a higher level that he wasn’t trusting his stuff and instead tried to be too fine. I think once he settles into the level and trusts his stuff and the defense behind him then he’ll flourish.
by YnksFnSnc78 on Jan 29, 2012 11:49 PM EST up reply actions
Why is the OP
bringing up Perez in this conversation?
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Jan 29, 2012 1:34 AM EST reply actions
I know, Perez is a month younger
has way better stuff, had a lower FIP at AA, and he had a lower FIP at AAA than Banuelos had at AA. I don’t know how you can put Banuelos ahead of Perez.
way better "stuff"?
At the very least, Banuelos’s raw “stuff” is plus fastball, plus changeup, solid curve. There are some that think Banuelos’ curve is/will be plus.
I really don’t see “way” better “stuff” in any … way. Furthermore, that was really Perez’s 2nd stint in AA. Certainly, age is a notch in Perez’s belt, but considering how young both guys are, it’s hardly a negative on Banuelos’ belt, but I point that out because you are using the lower FIP in AA as an argument (for a variety of reasons, I don’t see a big point in comparing FIP’s cross AA and AAA) and Banuelos’ FIP in his first full go-around of AA was lower than Perez’s in his first full go-around of AA last year.
Personally, I tend to lean towards Banuelos, but I don’t see the case for way better stuff based on the information out there, and I don’t see the usage of FIP here as a particularly effective argument for Perez over Banuelos.
when I saw him,
his fastball wasn’t plus, it was 89-91, his changeup was good, and his curve looked average. I don’t know where people get the three plus pitches from. Perez also walks less people, he has a lot better control, and why isn’t FIP an effective argument?
Sorry I looked up
Teheran, not Perez….Perez is 3 1/2 weeks younger than Banuelos
But Teheran is by far better than Banuelos
project prospect is the only person I’ve ever seen put Banuelos above Teheran. Teheran is by far better than Banuelos, all you have to look at to know that is the person who owns this site, John.
whatever man
but keep in mind there is very little separating top 10 pitching prospects
check these advanced stats for both these 2 over the years
Manny’s
http://statcorner.com/pitcher.php?id=544365
Julio’s
http://statcorner.com/pitcher.php?id=527054
scroll to the very bottom
the problem with tRA is that
it includes line drives, there have been some studies done that line drives are just a function of scorer’s bias. SIERA is the best peripheral stat available.
Teheran is better and he was in a higher league. People talk about Banuelos in AAA, but he barely pitched in AAA. Teheran’s stuff is much, much better. Are you seriously arguing Banuelos over Teheran?
WHAT???!!!
So you focus on Bans issues in 2011 and not only excuse Perez’ 2011 but his 2010 too? Wow…
So Perez has a horrible 2010 and yet a similar 2011 and he’s miles ahead? As for the AAA numbers Bans had a 3.90 FIP vs Perez 3.98 so I’m not sure how that gets lost in your “he had a lower FIP at AAA than Banuelos had at AA” statement. You are seriously going out of your way and misusing stats dude.
by YnksFnSnc78 on Jan 29, 2012 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
Perez has a better FIP
and his stuff is better than Banuelos. FIP is a much better indicator of a pitcher’s talent than ERA and SIERA is even better.
'FIP is a much better indicator of a pitcher’s talent'
Maybe it’s clumsy wording, but I don’t agree with this definitively.
I hate when people talk about mid 90s fastball
he does not sit in the mid 90s. Ogando and Verlander were the only 2 who did that last season. When I saw him he was at 89-91. His curve was average. His change up was his one good pitch and he had bad control. Since his stats don’t back him, and John has him as a B, I don’t have any reason to think he’s a top 30 pitching prospect.
Wrong
Price, Morrow, PIneda, Jackson, Holland sat around 94 MPH as well.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Jan 29, 2012 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
okay, but Banuelos dosen't throw
close to as hard as any of those guys. When I saw him, the most he got it up to was 92.
Well most scouts disagree with you
So I will take their word over yours.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Jan 29, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Fact checker. Here is the BA scouting report on each's fastball veocity....
Banuelos: “His fastball sits at 89-94 mph and touches 96.”
Price: “He has two plus-plus pitches with a mid-90s fastball and a biting slider.”
Morrow: “He has a mid-90s fastball that has reached 99 mph, and he maintains his velocity into the late innings.”
Pineda: “He throws a crisp fastball that sits at 93-97 mph and gets as high as 101 with explosive life and occasional heavy sink.”
Jackson: “Jackson’s picturesque delivery, clean arm action and premium athleticism aid him in making 98 mph fastballs look effortless. He sits between 91-97 and can maintain his velocity deep into games.”
Holland: “Holland used a fastball that sat around 93-96 mph but got even stronger as the year went on, touching as high as 98 mph in Double-A” (I took that from mlb.com since I couldn’t find anything from BA on him.
So tell me, which one of these guys doesn’t belong?
Those others
are mid-high 90’s pitchers, BA basically says what everyone else does Banuelos sits low-mid 90’s and is capable of occasionally reaching higher velo’s.
I've seen
92 mph tossed around the most as his average velocity so that’s where I expect it most of the time, but his velocity fluctuates so damn much. I’ve seen game reports where he’s sitting 91-92, I’ve seen him sit 94-96, in 2010 there were starts where he ran his FB as high as 98 mph and hit every number in between.
note
he hit 98 once in that game I saw so for me until he does it again its an outlier
Actually if he sits between 89-94 and gets it up to 96 his average is likely closer to 92
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Jan 29, 2012 9:06 PM EST up reply actions
And your...
comparing him to Price and Verlander because?
by YnksFnSnc78 on Jan 29, 2012 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
It's not the first time scouts have been wrong...
Zach Stewart comes to mind about not having the velocity that was said about him.
Nor Clay Bucholz, etc…I could think of more.
by Adamthebluejay on Jan 29, 2012 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
Buchholz averaged a 94 MPH fastball last year
that’s one of the fastest in the majors, he was hurt this year. You can see in the velocity charts in 2010, Buchholz sat in the mid 90s and occasionally got up to the high 90s.
Agreed
I guess math is not Maniac’s thing.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Jan 29, 2012 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
If you are going to dish it out, be prepared to take it
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Jan 29, 2012 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
93 and 94 both are, but I guess I'm just a little dissappointed in the system.
When someone says mid-90s, you instantly think 95. It seems to me that saying 93 is the mid-90s is a bit off. I’d say low to mid-90s in that case.
But yes, you are correct about 94.
Remember 5 is not the mid-point of 10, we are in a 0 based system
If we were being exact:
Low: 90-93.3
Mid: 93.3-96.6
High: 96.6-99.9
Strasburg: 100+
for me
its a 3 mph difference
Low 90,91,92
Mid: 93,94,95
High: 96+
if your going by average
then I follow the gradeschool rounding rule (you know four and under round down, 5 plus round up)
so 89.5-92.4 are low
92.5-95.4 are mid
95.5+ is high
Maybe Banuelos had an off game when I saw him
but since he probably sits at 91, that’s like Cliff Lee speed, and Banuelos has awful control, Lee has amazing control, Lee has way better secondary pitches. Cliff Lee with 5 BB/9 and Banuelos’ secondary pitches is a replacement level pitcher.
whoa, just came back after a long day
Never thought I’d see this many replies… then again, when it comes to Red Sox/Yankees, that’s always a risk you take.
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Jan 30, 2012 12:52 AM EST up reply actions
Hey... Yankees! Page views! Remember?
We’re here for you, big guy.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 30, 2012 4:00 AM EST up reply actions
Absolutely 1000% NO..
As of right now, I’d put him #44 on my AL list. Probably #18 pitcher.
If you take out the potential graduations that are still on my list…he might be #18 or #19 overall; maybe #12 pitcher.
Okay, so Banuelos over the AA/AAA of the last season and a half had the following:
50-51% GB rate, 3.52-4.19 ERA, 1.50-1.60 WHIP, 12.4%BB, 20.0-26.6% K rate.
Here are some other pitchers of note:
C. Crosby- essentially identical numbers with a higher GB rate.
C. Tillman- When he was at AAA, 2.70ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 6.5% BB rate, 24.8% K rate.
M. Perez- Same numbers…
M. Montgomery- a little higher ERA, but a lower BB%…otherwise the same numbers.
L. Hendriks- Not as much of a k-rate, a little higher ERA…but FAR fewer walks.
Neil Ramirez- His numbers are far better at both levels than Banuelos, with the exception of GB rate.
And Addison Reed? Forget about it. His numbers blow Banuelos away.
And I didn’t even mention the 4 2011 draftees and one high schooler I’d rather have over Banuelos.
So what does Manny have that these guys don’t? Oh…a Yankees jersey.
And its because of that same jersey
that you and so many see him as overrated….but if Banuelos seems to have so many similarities to these other top pitchers (coming close to matching most of there stats, beating some, and in case of his walk rate being far below) doesn’t that make his case stronger that there might be some truth in how valuable so many different scouting sites and respected names feel about him?
glass half full or half empty?
But that’s the rub. Those players are all better prospects based on the combination of ceiling and stats.
Yet NONE of them have gotten consideration for top 10 prospect in baseball…not ONE. Well…Perez. But other than Perez…those pitchers are all Top 15 to top 100 guys…yet “Banuelos” is “top 10”??? Why? Why Banuelos and not them?
I have nothing against Yankees prospects, the problem is in recent years they’ve rarely developed into Yankee players. The best one before Montero, was Austin Jackson. Neither will have a career with the Yankees. So we’ll see if Manny is good or not. If he is, he’ll be traded.
This was meant as a reply to Aslan
How are they better? It seems like a rock, paper, scissors situation among them….I prefer separate lists for position players and pitchers but that’s a different discussion for a later time.
Austin Jackson was projected to develop some power, and become similar to a Granderson but the power never came and was traded for the guy who would be his ceiling. Montero is a great prospect, but the problem was the yankee rotation has been a problem since 2002, forcing the team to overpay to try and fix it. Offense has always been a yankee calling card and that won’t change, so Montero became expendable.
A big positive for Banuelos is his change up, which rates as plus and can become even higher. The change is considered on of the hardest pitches to learn because it requires a special feel. It’s often times the last pitch many learn (if they ever do), and is usually reserved for just for opposite handed batters. Banuelos not only has a great feel for it, it’s considered his best pitch and one that he feels confidant enough in it to throw to same side hitters, back to back, and in hitters counts. That is not a common trait among young players especially 20 year olds.
I’ve said before I feel Manny is definitely top 25 but beyond that order doesn’t matter because there isn’t a true heads and tails better pitcher in the group (Matt Moore is excluded from this, because he is without a doubt better than every other pitching prospect in the world) they all have strengths and weaknesses that balance them out.
I've found a lot of lists that have him top 15
How are they better? It seems like a rock, paper, scissors situation among them….I prefer separate lists for position players and pitchers but that’s a different discussion for a later time.
Austin Jackson was projected to develop some power, and become similar to a Granderson but the power never came and was traded for the guy who would be his ceiling. Montero is a great prospect, but the problem was the yankee rotation has been a problem since 2002, forcing the team to overpay to try and fix it. Offense has always been a yankee calling card and that won’t change, so Montero became expendable.
A big positive for Banuelos is his change up, which rates as plus and can become even higher. The change is considered on of the hardest pitches to learn because it requires a special feel. It’s often times the last pitch many learn (if they ever do), and is usually reserved for just for opposite handed batters. Banuelos not only has a great feel for it, it’s considered his best pitch and one that he feels confidant enough in it to throw to same side hitters, back to back, and in hitters counts. That is not a common trait among young players especially 20 year olds.
I’ve said before I feel Manny is definitely top 25 but beyond that order doesn’t matter because there isn’t a true heads and tails better pitcher in the group (Matt Moore is excluded from this, because he is without a doubt better than every other pitching prospect in the world) they all have strengths and weaknesses that balance them out.
My problem with Banuelos is
his stats aren’t that good and what I saw was not good. The only reason I have him at a B is because of ARL and what other people have seen about him.
Scouts see a lot of players one time, and no one has a problem with that.
So basically for me he dosen’t have good stats, I didn’t like what I saw, and John dosen’t like him that much. That isn’t a prospect I usually put in the top 20 prospects.
He was John's highest ranked B for pitchers
So saying he doesn’t like him is a bit of a stretch
by cookiedabookie on Feb 3, 2012 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
most scouts see a player the level of Banuelos a half dozen times
How many games do you think a scout sees in a year? Unless a player shoots up the minors fast or the player is unheralded the scout should see them at least 2-3 times if not more.
further
you keep mentioning that John doesn’t like him that much. IMO John is much more statistically oriented, which is fair enough.
But when I keep mentioning how scouts consistently rank Banuelos very high all you can reply is about the one time you saw him or point to his numbers or to analysts that are statistically oriented to back your opinion. Your evaluation of Banuelos may be correct. But you keep ignoring the part that most analysts love his stuff and rate him much higher than you do.
okay, but my problem is
usually people say, you can’t just rank a prospect on stats or online scouting reports, you have to see him with your own eyes. With Banuelos I have seen him with my own eyes and his stats aren’t that great. All the scouting reports said Brett Lawrie couldn’t play 3rd, John saw him once, and thought he could. John was right. It is better to see someone than to look at online scouting reports.
definitely agree with you there
my biggest disagreement is you are basing it off of one start. For anyone that could be problematic. For Banuelos that is huge. His stuff has been known to fluctuate. In 2010 it wasn’t as good as this year. This year is more like his 2009 stuff. And he fluctuates start to start, like any pitcher, but moreso. I don’t think you got an accurate picture of what he can do.
The fact he fluctuates that much is a separate, but valid issue.
Pedrophile is right
Even among us Yankee fans, we know Banuelos velocity fluctuates on almost a start by start basis. I’ve seen him when his FB never dipped below 93 and topped out at 97, I’ve seen starts where he’ll stay 90-93 and top out at 94. As a 20 year old pitcher one will expect that kind of instability.
You like to cite his stats, but then claim you’ll take a bunch of guys who have never thrown a professional inning. I also ask you, what about guys like Julio Teheran? Teheran’s K’s dropped tremendously, while also posting a dangerously low GB% in AAA does that mean he’s no longer a potential top rotation pitcher? No, because pitchers that young regardless of level still don’t know how to really bring out their true potential on a consistent basis.
I have one question when you saw Banuelos were you at his second AAA post-season game against Pawtucket?
You aren't a scout
Scouts know what to look for. I doubt you have that skill.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Feb 5, 2012 1:06 AM EST up reply actions
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