Got this tweet a few days ago about Milwaukee Brewers slugger Jesus Aguilar:
Well, let’s take a look.
. . .he has nothing left to prove in the International League and is entering the typical career peak performance window, but finding a path to a regular major league job is another matter given his defensive limitations and his right/right first base/DH profile. Many similar players get stuck in the upper minors, more-or-less permanently. The lucky ones benefit from well-timed injuries ahead of them and get a clear shot at being a big league role player, or they sometimes make their way to Japan (or Korea, or Mexico) and have star-level success there, or some combination of all those things, and make a decent living that way
The conclusion was:
Aguilar turns 27 in June, making 2017 the stereotypical peak season. No, he’s not going to hit .300 in a full season, but he could very well hit .270 with 20 homers, and that’s a fine thing to pick up on a waiver claim.
He ended up hitting .265/.331/.505 last season with 16 homers in 279 at-bats. This season he’s at .299/.358/.597 through 201 at-bats. He’s still 27, turning 28 next week.
Overall, we now have about one season’s worth of MLB data for Aguilar. In 538 major league at-bats, he’s hit .268/.331/.506 with 32 homers, 49 walks, and 179 strikeouts.
I think that’s his true level of ability: as projected, he’s a .270ish hitter.
The power was a bit underplayed in the projection, as I thought he’d be a 20-25 homer bat, SLG around .450 or so. He’s done more than that for the Brewers, granted he’s at his typical career peak right now, plus the game is more home run-oriented than it was even two years ago when I did my last full book analysis of him.
If I had it to do over again, I’d go with a B-, but that’s based on the retroactive knowledge that Aguilar would get an opportunity to show what he can do.