Over the course of the last 3 seasons, I have developed an evaluation system that quantifies the capacity of professional baseball players to run offensively. Here we will take a look at current National League prospects (and the stray NL recently graduated prospect) who made the MLB Pipeline organizational Top 30 Prospects List at one or more of three intervals: start of 2018, end of 2017, end of 2016. MLB Pipeline reports a "Run" scouting grade on each player who makes their organizational Top 30 list and I will use that number as a comparative frame of reference to what the new offensive running evaluation system spits out.
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Methodology
The system evaluates 3 types of plays on which the player is a batter and 7 types of plays on which the player is a baserunner, as was explained in the recently published American League version of this FanPost.
The results will be expressed on the typical 80(plus plus plus)-70(plus plus)-60(plus)-50(average)-40(minus)-30-20 scout scale, where each 10 points amounts to one standard deviation and each player's result will be rounded to the nearest number that ends in a 0 or 5. This value will be termed the player's Offensive Running Rating. And that value will also be reported focusing exclusively on each player's As Batter events and exclusively on their As Baserunner events. Reverse engineering the Offensive Running Rating result demonstrates that for a typical player the value is determined 55% by their As Batter Events and 45% by their As Baserunner Events.
A player who receives an 80 is effectively running offensively in the top 1% of his league peers. At 70, the player rates in the top 3%. At 60, the player rates in the top 16%. At 55 the player rates in the top 31%. And the opposite holds as the rating drops below a league-average 50 mark. The MLB Pipeline Run grade is also expressed on the same 80-to-20 scale and will tend to skew more in the direction of a raw speed grade than a grade that evaluates how well the player's raw speed translates to the playing field.
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Results: By Organization
Any player who had at least 150 batter/baserunner plate appearances evaluated and either beat their MLB Pipeline Run grade by 20 or more points, trailed their MLB Pipeline Run grade by 15 or more points, or posted a 65 Offensive Running Rating in 2017 MiLB play will be featured in separate sections towards the end of this FanPost. Very few of these players will be discussed until then. In each organization's table, players will be listed from highest to lowest MLB Pipeline Run grade.
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Arizona Diamondbacks
As perhaps the most athletic catcher to be signed from the 2017 NCAA draft class, Daulton Varsho will be a player to monitor on these scales. Victor Reyes will be a member of the MLB Detroit Tigers to begin 2018 but could wind up back in the Diamondbacks farm system owing to his Rule 5 roster status. Domingo Leyba posted a 45 (2015) and a 55 (2016) ahead of his injury-abbreviated 60 2016 Offensive Running Rating.
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Atlanta Braves
50-Run-graded infielders Travis Demeritte and Dustin Peterson each rated at 60 in 2017; Demeritte posted a 50 in 2016 and a 55 in 2015; Peterson posted a 55 in 2016 and a 60 in 2015. Third-sacker Austin Riley put up a surprising 55 in 2017 after matching his 40 Run grade in 2016 and 2015.
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Chicago Cubs
Jacob Hanneman posted a third straight 60 in 2017. D.J. Wilson posted two Run-grade-matching 65 marks before his 2017 60. Catcher Victor Caratini bested his 30 Run grade by 15 points in 2017 after putting up a 2016 40 and 2015 30.
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Cincinnati Reds
2016 NCAA sophomore post-draft free agent signee T.J. Friedl rated at 60 in 2017 after posting a 55 over 119 MiLB PA the season before.
Shed Long beat his 50 Run grade for the third straight season with a 55 that followed a pair of 60 marks. Tyler Stephenson posted a 60 over 136 PA during 2016 and a 45 over 212 2015 PA. Jesse Winker 's Run-grade-matching 40 was preceded by two 45s.
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Colorado Rockies
In advance of his injury-abbreviated 2017, Forrest Wall had rated at 65 in 2016 and 55 in 2015. The 55 that Brendan Rogers posted in 2017 was several strides faster than a pair of 35 marks that preceded it.
Over the last 3 MiLB campaigns, Ryan McMahon has put up a 40 (2017), 45 (2016), and 50 (2015). Colton Welker rated a much better 55 in his 2016 pro debut.
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Los Angeles Dodgers
The whiff-prone Jeren Kendall rated well below a 70 Run grade during his pro debut. Drew Jackson is on a slow downward trend having posted a 75 (2015), 65 (2016), and 60 (2017) over the last 3 seasons. Yusniel Diaz rated at 45 in 2017 after a Run-grade-matching 55 in his 2016 MiLB debut.
Alex Verdugo posted a 60 in 2017 despite being weighted down by excessive jewelry (2016: 50, 2015: 45). Keibert Ruiz under-ran his 40 grade by 5 points in 2017 after posting another 35 in 2016 and a 40 in 2015.
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Miami Marlins
Nearly half of the listed Marlins rated in the (plus-to-better) green during 2017.
The 2017 60 of Monte Harrison was preceded by a 65 (2016) and 50 (2015). Trademate Isan Diaz has posted a 55 (2017), 40 (2016), and 50 (2015) over the last 3 seasons.
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Milwaukee Brewers
While Corey Ray seems to have gotten out of the batter's box in good shape, he had a rough season on the basepaths when others were at the dish; Ray could only muster a 45 in his 2016 pre-knee-injury pro debut. Brett Phillips put up a second straight Run-grade-matching 55 after a 70 in 2015.
Among 50-graded 2017 early-round draftees, Keston Hiura posted a 55 while Tristen Lutz could only muster a 40.
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New York Mets
The 60 of organizational top position prospect Andres Gimenez was preceded by a 50 in 2016. Luis Guillorme snuck into plus territory after matching his 45 Run grade in the prior two seasons.
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Philadelphia Phillies
2016 number 1 overall selection Mickey Moniak answered a pro debut 55 with another in 2017.
The 50 of J.P. Crawford was preceded by a pair of 55 marks. The 40-Run-graded Jhailyn Ortiz has posted a 55 rating in both of his pro seasons.
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Pittsburgh Pirates
The 55 of Lolo Sanchez was up from a 40 in the 2016 Dominican Summer League. The Seinfeldian keystone combo of Kevin Newman and Kevin Kramer each rated at 60 in 2017; after each had 2015-debuted with a 55, Newman beat Kramer by a 65 to 45 count in 2016.
MLB Pipeline recently upped the Run grade Ke'Bryan Hayes by a whopping 15 points from 40; Hayes seems on a downward trajectory though with his 2017 50 Offensive Running Rating following a 55 (2016) and 65 (2015). The 45-Run-graded Jordan Luplow is on an upward swing after posting a 50 (2015), 55 (2016), and 60 (2017).
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San Diego Padres
The 55 of Luis Urias was a big step up from a 2016 35 that followed a 45. Fernando Tatis mustered a 55 over 189 evaluated PA during his 2016 pro debut.
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San Francisco Giants
Steven Duggar posted a 60 over just 168 evaluated PA; before then he had posted a 50 (2016) and 55 (2015). 2017 first-rounder Heliot Ramos lagged 15 points under his 60 Run Grade in the Arizona League, while sixth-round NCAA outfielder Bryce Johnson matched his 60 Run grade in the Northwest League.
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St Louis Cardinals
Jonathan Machado seems poised to assume organizational burner honors in the wake of a key offseason trade departure. 2017 early round NCAA picks Scott Hurst and Kramer Robertson each debuted with a 65 just as Tommy Edman had done a season earlier. For whatever reason MLB Pipeline does not list Jose Adolis Garcia as a prospect; Garcia earned a 55 (60 as Batter, 50 as Baserunner) over 473 evaluated 2017 AAA/AA PA.
Andrew Knizner matched the 45 from his 2016 pro debut. Fellow catcher Carson Kelly posted a mere 25 in 2017 to join a 50 from 2016 and 30 from 2015.
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Washington Nationals
Top prospects Juan Soto and Carter Kieboom each rated at 45 in an injury-shortened 2017 campaign; the duo posted 55 marks in 2016.
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Results: They Who Most Exceeded Their Run Grade (Over 150+ PA)
As was true in the companion American League FanPost, first basemen and catchers dominate the top of the table in occupying 11 of its first 13 rows. After debuting with red ratings after the 2015 draft, Edwin Rios and Brian Mundell have been on an upward trend as offensive runners. What got into Gavin LaValley in 2017? After matching his 50 Run grade during a 2016 Dominican Summer League debut, Dodgers outfielder Starling Heredia posted a sterling 75 across three 2017 domestic levels.
The 55-graded Harrison Bader posted a 75 in 2017 and has not rated lower than 65 in 3 pro seasons. Rockies 8th-round NCAA selection Bret Boswell debuted with an outstanding 70 that topped his Run grade by 20 points.
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Results: They Who Most Trailed Their Run Grade (Over 150+ PA)
Consensus top 10 MLB prospects Victor Robles and Ronald Acuna each rated 20 points under their Run grades. Robles, whose Run grade was recently raised to 75 from 70, has logged consecutive 55s after a 2015 65. Acuna, whose Run grade was just upped to 70 from 60, has sandwiched a pair of league average marks around a 2016 65. Top Cubs positional prospect Aramis Ademan had a terrible time on the basepaths while posting a 30 a season after matching his just-lowered-from-55 50 Run grade in a Dominican Summer League debut.
The 70-Run-graded Taylor Trammell repeated the 55 from his 2016 debut. MLB Pipeline has gradually lowered the Run grade of Daniel Johnson from 80 (2016) to 70 (2017) to 60 (2018) and perhaps should lower that number still more per his two seasons of Offensive Running Rating data.
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Results: They Who Posted a 65+ Offensive Running Rating as a 2017 MiLBer (Over 150+ PA)
Former Cardinal Magneuris Sierra rules the roost once rounding is forgone; the 70 Run grade was just upped from 60 and still might sell the new Marlin short. Pirates Austin Meadows and Cole Tucker also posted 80 marks in 2017; Meadows had posted a pair of 60s before then, whereas Tucker had only rated at 45 in 2016 and 55 in 2017. One ought to keep eye on Edward Olivares as a potential late-blooming arm-legs athlete who broke out in the power department as a 2017 Blue Jays farmhand; the somewhat similar Jose Siri seems back in stride with his 70 Run grade after a down 2016. Garrett Hampson topped his 65 Run grade by 10 points in 2017 after trailing it by the same amount in 2016; teammate Sam Hilliard met a comparable fate.
Braxton Lee and 2017 NCAA competitive-balance 1st-rounder Brian Miller (above) slot in behind Sierra on the Marlins speedy outfielder depth chart. Switch-hitting shortstop Arquimedes Gamboa has the offensive running and defensive games down and now it is just a matter of the bat catching up with the other skills. Rafael Bautista and Roman Quinn join Sierra as the only three featured here who rated at 70 or better in each of the last 3 seasons. 2016 prep first-rounder Gavin Lux put up an impressive 70 in his first full season. That premium hitting prospect Nick Senzel has twice now topped his 55 Run grade makes for another reason to like him even more prospectively; the Run grade had been set at 50 during his 2016 draft year.
Cristian Pache (below) seems to be trending in the direction of his 70 Run grade. 2017 marks the lone season of the last three where Lewis Brinson equaled or bettered his 60 Run grade.
The Offensive Running Rating of Trent (Clark) Grisham made a large spike upward in 2017 after two seasons in which he had rated in the red. The newly-well-compensated Scott Kingery was 5 points shy of posting a third 70 in 3 pro seasons; MLB Pipeline just upped his Run grade from 60 to 65.
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Exit Poll: Most Surprising 2017 MiLB Offensive Running Rating Among These Top Prospects?
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