Byron Buxton 2017: Projections vs. reality

Continuing with our series of Community Projection reviews, we turn our gaze to Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton. The community projection was published on March 19th, 2017.

The community augured 132 games, 491 at-bats, 71 runs, 132 hits, 27 doubles, 8 triples, 16 homers, 38 walks, 134 strikeouts, 23 steals, 7 caught stealing, 4 HBP, slash line .268/.327/.452, OPS .779.

With three games left in the regular season, the results are 138 games, 455 at-bats, 68 runs, 116 hits, 14 doubles, 6 triples, 16 homers, 38 walks, 148 strikeouts, 28 steals, 1 caught, 4 HBP, slash line .255/.317/.418, OPS .734.

We hit home runs, walks, and HBP right on the head this time, granted those numbers can change over the weekend. We were a bit too optimistic on the OPS components.

By way of comparison, the formal projection systems give the following results:

Steamer: 127 games, 471 at-bats, 57 runs, 115 hits, 22 doubles, 5 triples, 15 homers, 34 walks, 151 strikeouts, 16 steals, 7 caught, 4 HBP, slash line .243/.298/.411, OPS .709.

ZIPS: 138 games, 487 at-bats, 72 runs, 126 hits, 24 doubles, 9 triples, 16 homers, 34 walks, 156 strikeouts, 16 steals, 3 caught, 5 HBP, slash line .259/.311/.444, .755 OPS.

PECOTA: 478 at-bats, 63 runs, 115 hits, 22 doubles, 7 triples, 18 homers, 33 walks, 156 strikeouts, 16 steals, 3 caught, slash line .245/.297/.436, .733 OPS.

ZIPS got closest on OPS. All the formal systems were a bit too far down on his OBP. Overall all of these projections were really not terribly different than what really happened. None of them can account for his excellent defense of course.