Rob Refsnyder: Legitimate Prospect?

via www.milb.com

Robert Refsnyder has burst onto the scene as a Yankees prospect in 2014. A fifth-round draft pick in 2012 out of Arizona, where he was the College World Series MVP. He was a very good hitter in college, hitting .343/.409/.503 over his three year college career.

Refsnyder put himself on the draft map with a strong Cape Cod showing in 2011, hitting .308/.406/.436 for the Wareham Gatemen. He followed that up with a strong junior year, hitting .364/.453/.562, with 34 walks to 26 strikeouts. He was an outfielder in college, and there was concern that he wouldn't have the power to play in a corner outfield spot in pro ball, and he didn't have the range to play center field. This was a large part of a bat as good as Refsnyder's reaching the fifth round.

In Refsnyder's first taste of pro ball after being drafted, he struggled with the bat while playing right field for the Charleston Riverdogs, hitting only .241/.319/.364, with a 91 wRC+. This didn't help with the concerns about the bat holding up in a corner outfield spot. The Yankees decided to convert him to second base, to help his bat play up and give him more positional value.

In 2013, his bat exploded, and he hasn't looked back since. He hit .293/.413/.413 between Charleston and Tampa, two of the toughest parks to hit in in the minor leagues. He had a 173 wRC+ in his 62 PA in Charleston, and a 140 wRC+ in his 507 PA in High-A Tampa. His conversion to second base was still a project, but his athleticism gave the transition a good chance to succeed. In 2014, the defense has continued to get better, so that now he projects to be an adequate second baseman. And his bat has taken a huge step forward: .340/.408/.551, 166 wRC+ between AA Trenton and AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

So, how does he compare to other players at similar ages, as second basemen, with elite production? I decided to take a look. From 2006 to 2013, there have been 37 players with at least 240 AA plate appearances, and at least a 140 wRC+, at age 23 - marks that Refsnyder has matched this year. Twenty-nine of those players have made the major leagues so far, or over 78%, and two more are still playing in the minors this year at AA and AAA. Given the high failure rate of prospects, that is great news for Refsnyder's future. The average career fWAR for this group of players is 2.8, but again these are players who played in AA ball since 2006. The leader in fWAR among the group is Chase Headly, at 19.8. You can see the rest of the list below.

Table One: Double-A players, 23 years old, min 240 PA, 140 wRC+ or higher since 2006
Name	Year	Age	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	wRC+	*ISOBB/K**	MLB fWAR
Max Ramirez	2008	23	289	12.8%	19.4%	0.66	0.354	0.450	0.646	1.096	0.292	189	0.193	-0.1
Stefen Romero	2012	23	240	5.8%	15.4%	0.38	0.347	0.392	0.620	1.012	0.273	179	0.104	-0.8
Paul Goldschmidt	2011	23	457	17.9%	20.1%	0.89	0.306	0.435	0.626	1.061	0.320	178	0.285	13.1
Tyler Flowers	2009	23	317	18.0%	24.0%	0.75	0.302	0.445	0.548	0.993	0.246	177	0.185	1.9
Ryan Strieby	2009	23	362	15.7%	22.1%	0.71	0.303	0.427	0.565	0.991	0.262	176	0.186
Vince Belnome	2011	23	318	14.8%	18.6%	0.80	0.333	0.432	0.603	1.035	0.270	174	0.216	-0.1
George Springer	2013	23	323	13.0%	29.7%	0.44	0.297	0.399	0.579	0.978	0.282	174	0.124	1.4
Chase Headley	2007	23	522	14.2%	21.8%	0.65	0.330	0.437	0.580	1.016	0.249	171	0.162	19.8
Mike Olt	2012	23	420	14.5%	24.0%	0.60	0.288	0.398	0.579	0.977	0.291	168	0.175	-0.8
Michael Taylor	2009	23	363	9.6%	14.0%	0.69	0.333	0.408	0.569	0.977	0.236	168	0.163	-1.1
J.R. Towles	2007	23	257	8.9%	13.6%	0.66	0.324	0.425	0.551	0.976	0.227	165	0.150	0.1
Dave Sappelt	2010	23	372	8.3%	12.4%	0.67	0.361	0.416	0.548	0.964	0.188	163	0.126	0.6
Carlos Santana	2009	23	535	16.8%	15.5%	1.08	0.290	0.413	0.530	0.943	0.241	160	0.260	13.2
Derek Dietrich	2013	23	257	11.3%	23.3%	0.48	0.271	0.381	0.509	0.890	0.239	160	0.115	0.3
Casper Wells	2008	23	313	9.6%	21.1%	0.45	0.289	0.376	0.589	0.965	0.300	156	0.135	2.9
Robert Refsnyder	2014	23	244	5.7%	15.6%	0.37	0.342	0.385	0.548	0.933	0.206	156	0.076
J.D. Martinez	2011	23	370	11.4%	14.9%	0.76	0.338	0.414	0.546	0.959	0.208	155	0.158	0.9
Hunter Morris	2012	23	571	7.0%	20.5%	0.34	0.303	0.357	0.563	0.920	0.261	155	0.089
Aaron Luna	2010	23	408	15.4%	17.9%	0.86	0.270	0.426	0.470	0.897	0.201	154	0.173
Luke Hughes	2008	23	319	8.8%	21.9%	0.40	0.319	0.385	0.551	0.936	0.232	152	0.093	-0.1
Sean Ratliff	2010	23	311	7.4%	23.2%	0.32	0.317	0.371	0.562	0.933	0.246	151	0.079
Jed Lowrie	2007	23	408	15.9%	14.2%	1.12	0.297	0.410	0.501	0.911	0.205	149	0.230	9.9
John Jaso	2007	23	450	13.1%	10.9%	1.20	0.316	0.408	0.484	0.893	0.168	148	0.202	7.4
Jordan Brown	2007	23	558	11.3%	10.0%	1.13	0.333	0.421	0.484	0.906	0.151	148	0.171	-0.2
Alfredo Marte	2012	23	446	7.6%	16.1%	0.47	0.294	0.363	0.523	0.886	0.229	147	0.108	-0.5
George Kottaras	2006	23	310	16.1%	21.9%	0.74	0.276	0.394	0.451	0.845	0.175	146	0.130	3.4
Matt Laporta	2008	23	433	11.3%	17.3%	0.65	0.279	0.386	0.539	0.924	0.260	145	0.169	-1.4
Chin-lung Hu	2007	23	356	7.3%	9.3%	0.79	0.329	0.380	0.508	0.887	0.178	143	0.141	-1.0
Joe Benson	2011	23	472	11.9%	23.1%	0.51	0.285	0.388	0.495	0.883	0.210	143	0.107	-0.2
Jason Kipnis	2010	23	355	8.7%	17.2%	0.51	0.311	0.385	0.502	0.887	0.190	143	0.097	9.1
Chih-Hsien Chiang	2011	23	499	6.2%	18.2%	0.34	0.302	0.361	0.537	0.897	0.235	143	0.080
Eric Thames	2010	23	573	8.9%	21.1%	0.42	0.288	0.370	0.526	0.896	0.238	142	0.100	0.0
Alex Hassan	2011	23	545	13.9%	14.5%	0.96	0.291	0.404	0.456	0.860	0.165	141	0.158	-0.1
Jason Donald	2008	23	414	11.4%	20.8%	0.55	0.307	0.391	0.497	0.889	0.191	141	0.105	0.6
Kala Ka'Aihue	2008	23	475	18.5%	25.1%	0.74	0.274	0.417	0.457	0.874	0.184	140	0.136
Danny Dorn	2008	23	388	10.8%	21.6%	0.50	0.277	0.367	0.539	0.906	0.262	140	0.131
David Lough	2009	23	253	4.7%	11.9%	0.40	0.331	0.371	0.517	0.887	0.186	140	0.074	3.0
Brock Bond	2009	23	531	12.6%	13.0%	0.97	0.333	0.429	0.409	0.838	0.076	140	0.074

One of my favorite statistical tools to look at players is actually a combination of two - ISO (how many extra bases per at bat a player gets) and BB/K ratio (shows a hitters ability to control the strike zone). In ranking the above players by ISO*(BB/K), Refsnyder would only rank 36th. Of those in the bottom five for ISO*(BB/K), only David Lough has made the major leagues, while 87.5% of the other 32 have. But, ranked by wRC+, Refsnyder is tied for 15th with Casper Wells. Only one player above him never made the majors, Ryan Strieby.

How about second basemen in AA with at least a 140 wRC+ and 240 PA? Of those 18 players, Refnsyder would rank 9th in wRC+ - everyone higher than him has made the majors. He also would be second to last in ISO*(BB/K). This group does include second basemen of any age, inluding a 30 year old Eric Riggs. However, 83.3% of these players made the major leagues, an even higher rate than the 23 year old sub-population. You can see this group of players below.

Table Two: Double-A second basemen, min 240 PA, 140 wRC+ or higher since 2006
Name	Year	Age	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	wRC+	*ISOBB/K**	MLB fWAR
Stefen Romero	2012	23	240	5.8%	15.4%	0.38	0.347	0.392	0.620	1.012	0.273	179	0.104	-0.8
Vince Belnome	2011	23	318	14.8%	18.6%	0.80	0.333	0.432	0.603	1.035	0.270	174	0.216	-0.1
Marcus Semien	2013	22	483	17.4%	13.7%	1.27	0.290	0.420	0.483	0.903	0.193	167	0.245	0.1
Josh Satin	2011	26	404	14.1%	22.5%	0.63	0.325	0.423	0.538	0.962	0.213	165	0.134	1.0
Tommy La Stella	2013	24	323	11.5%	10.5%	1.09	0.343	0.422	0.473	0.896	0.131	163	0.143	0.7
Scott Sizemore	2009	24	269	13.0%	17.1%	0.76	0.307	0.402	0.535	0.937	0.228	161	0.173	1.4
Derek Dietrich	2013	23	257	11.3%	23.3%	0.48	0.271	0.381	0.509	0.890	0.239	160	0.115	0.3
Jesus Guzman	2008	24	376	8.8%	14.9%	0.59	0.364	0.419	0.560	0.979	0.196	159	0.116	2.7
Robert Refsnyder	2014	23	244	5.7%	15.6%	0.37	0.342	0.385	0.548	0.933	0.206	156	0.076
Luke Hughes	2008	23	319	8.8%	21.9%	0.40	0.319	0.385	0.551	0.936	0.232	152	0.093	-0.1
Daniel Descalso	2009	22	324	9.6%	12.7%	0.76	0.323	0.396	0.531	0.928	0.208	151	0.158	0.0
Kevin Randel	2006	25	389	12.1%	22.4%	0.54	0.280	0.376	0.483	0.859	0.203	149	0.110
Drew Sutton	2008	25	606	12.5%	16.2%	0.78	0.317	0.408	0.523	0.931	0.206	147	0.161	0.6
Eric Riggs	2007	30	343	9.6%	12.8%	0.75	0.293	0.375	0.522	0.897	0.229	145	0.172
Ryan Flaherty	2011	24	344	11.6%	16.0%	0.73	0.305	0.384	0.523	0.907	0.219	143	0.160	1.0
Jason Kipnis	2010	23	355	8.7%	17.2%	0.51	0.311	0.385	0.502	0.887	0.190	143	0.097	9.1
Edgar Gonzalez	2006	28	240	10.0%	15.4%	0.65	0.295	0.371	0.457	0.828	0.162	141	0.105	0.5
Josh Satin	2010	25	332	10.8%	21.4%	0.51	0.308	0.395	0.472	0.867	0.164	140	0.084	1.0
Brock Bond	2009	23	531	12.6%	13.0%	0.97	0.333	0.429	0.409	0.838	0.076	140	0.074

Finally, I wanted to look at second basemen, age 23 in AAA with at least 100 PA and a 100 wRC+ or higher. Now 100 plate appearances is definitely a small sample, but it is what we have to work with right now. Surprisingly, there are only 21 players between 2006 and 2013 that match this criteria. Of those, all but one of them have made the major leagues, or over 95%. That group has averaged 3 fWAR in their young career, led by Martin Prado with 17.2 fWAR. Ranked against this group, Refsnyder would be first in wRC+, and third in ISO*(BB/K), behind only Alberto Callaspo and Dustin Ackley. As a group, this is an impressive bunch, and should excite Yankees fans. What this group of players shows, is that if you can make AAA for at least 100 PA as a 23 year old second basemen, you will play in the big leagues, and have a good chance to become an above-average player. You can see the entire table below.

Table Three: 23 Year Old Second Basemen, min 100 PA in AAA since 2006
Name	Year	Age	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	wRC+	*ISOBB/K**	MLB fWAR
Robert Refsnyder	2014	23	104	18.3%	18.3%	1.00	0.333	0.462	0.560	1.021	0.226	188	0.226
Kyle Seager	2011	23	117	9.4%	10.3%	0.92	0.387	0.444	0.585	1.029	0.198	160	0.182	11.2
Sean Rodriguez	2008	23	289	10.0%	15.6%	0.64	0.306	0.397	0.645	1.042	0.339	159	0.217	6.2
Jedd Gyorko	2012	23	408	8.3%	16.7%	0.50	0.328	0.380	0.588	0.968	0.260	146	0.130	1.3
Cord Phelps	2010	23	273	8.8%	14.3%	0.62	0.317	0.386	0.506	0.892	0.189	142	0.117	-1.3
Willy Aybar	2006	23	234	10.3%	11.5%	0.89	0.314	0.385	0.531	0.916	0.217	141	0.193	2.8
Alberto Callaspo	2006	23	554	10.1%	4.9%	2.07	0.337	0.404	0.478	0.882	0.141	135	0.292	10.2
Corban Joseph	2012	23	386	13.7%	14.8%	0.93	0.266	0.366	0.474	0.840	0.208	134	0.193	0.0
Dustin Ackley	2011	23	331	16.6%	11.5%	1.45	0.303	0.421	0.487	0.908	0.185	130	0.268	4.9
Josh Harrison	2011	23	254	5.9%	11.0%	0.54	0.310	0.365	0.460	0.826	0.150	128	0.081	2.9
Matt Tuiasosopo	2009	23	269	13.4%	30.9%	0.43	0.261	0.368	0.473	0.842	0.212	124	0.091	-0.3
Michael Garciaparra	2006	23	162	13.6%	16.0%	0.85	0.316	0.422	0.375	0.797	0.059	124	0.050
Martin Prado	2007	23	439	7.7%	9.3%	0.83	0.316	0.374	0.421	0.795	0.105	121	0.087	17.2
Cesar Hernandez	2013	23	440	9.3%	18.4%	0.51	0.309	0.375	0.402	0.776	0.092	121	0.047	-0.8
Johnny Giavotella	2011	23	503	8.0%	11.3%	0.70	0.338	0.390	0.481	0.871	0.143	118	0.100	-1.2
Danny Espinosa	2010	23	108	7.4%	20.4%	0.36	0.295	0.349	0.463	0.812	0.168	114	0.060	6.7
Chin-lung Hu	2007	23	200	3.0%	9.0%	0.33	0.318	0.337	0.505	0.842	0.188	112	0.062	-1.0
Jimmy Paredes	2012	23	536	4.1%	18.8%	0.22	0.318	0.348	0.477	0.826	0.160	112	0.035	-1.6
Tyler Pastornicky	2013	23	320	8.4%	14.7%	0.57	0.292	0.354	0.392	0.747	0.101	111	0.058	-1.3
Blake Dewitt	2009	23	407	11.8%	10.8%	1.09	0.256	0.349	0.426	0.775	0.170	105	0.185	1.8
DJ Lemahieu	2012	23	280	8.2%	10.4%	0.79	0.314	0.368	0.396	0.764	0.082	102	0.065	2.3
Adrian Cardenas	2011	23	545	8.6%	10.3%	0.84	0.314	0.374	0.418	0.791	0.104	100	0.087	-0.3

For me, Refsnyder is probably in the 70-80 range right now, but if he continues to do what he's done through the end of the season, a spot in the top 50 is reasonable. Among Yankees prospects, he is third, behind Luis Severino and Gary Sanchez. If Sanchez doesn't turn things around, both performance and makeup-wise, I could see Refsnyder pass him by the end of the season.

So, what do you think? Is Rob Refsnyder a legitimate prospect? Where would he fit on a top 100 list for you? Where would he rank among Yankees prospects for you?