2011 MLB Draft: Chicago Cubs Review

I thought it was a solid draft. Not great, but solid. That said, I thought it was a very good draft for the system, as it addressed power concerns, key positional concerns, and added some much needed upside picks. The system has a lot of solid guys, but few upside chips, and this may help address that.

There seems to be some indication that the Ricketts regime will allow the scouting department to spend a bit more. Tim Wilken made comments that indicated as such, and the first sign of this may have been last year, when they took several prep arms and an overslot on Golden fairly early. This draft was certainly, on paper, a bit different from Wilken’s first few drafts with the Cubs, as there were more prep gambles.

The system has a good group of high ceiling arms that were in XST (Ben Wells, Austin Reed, Luis Liria, Jin Yeong Kim and a couple others) so it wasn’t surprising that they didn’t focus as heavily on arms. At the end of the day, a good draft comes down to who you sign, and if the Cubs get some of these later round arms signed, to go with perhaps Zych and Scott, then things look intriguing. I really like Michael Jensen quite a bit, hitting the mid-90’s for the first time this year and owning a good curve. Garcia is another intriguing guy, and Ricky Jacquez seems to leave open the possibility that he’d sign. Surprisingly, noted Cubs columnist Bruce Miles said he thought there was a better than 50-50 chance that the Cubs could get Maples signed, which was higher than I would’ve (he noted this in a blog post, but it may/probably is just a guess on his part). Getting, say, 2 of these arms signed would make the draft look really good.

I don’t think Shoulders will sign unless the over-slot gets really high. My hunch is that Shoulders was sort of drafted as a Plan B to Vogelbach, in case Vogelbach didn’t sign. I do expect most of the top 10 round picks to sign, though, considering Wilken has said that they could spend more, and adding Baez and Vogelbach, to go with Golden last year, really adds much needed raw power to the system. There seems to be some indication that Gretzky may sign as well. Schlect fits the mold of players that Wilken goes after.

All in all, I’m intrigued because of the gambles and happy enough with the moves.

The more I read about Baez the higher I am on him. BA loved him and thought of him as the 2nd best hitter in the draft next to Rendon. He also comes from a baseball hotbed, and he dominated it to the tune of a .770 BA.

Beyond the name arms like Scott, Maples, and Jacquez the Cubs drafted alot of upside arms…Puligese (CC), Ethan Elias, Jensen, Arturo Maltos-Garcia, Austin Urban, Jay Calhoun, Tanny Kichler, David Ernst, Sam Howard, Antonio Gonzales, and Cody Edwards.

The system needed this because after Trey McNutt the next SP prospects worth talking about are Wells and Reed from last year.

I’d be happy if they signed Baez/Vogelbach/Scott/Maples/Dunston Jr/Zych and then at least a some of those arms.

Senor Sickels have you heard anything about the Cubs going after the Cuban who was declared ineligible?

The success of this one depends on who the Cubs sign.

Baez was a very nice pick. He wasn’t a guy I knew a whole lot about, since I’d been focusing mostly on the pitching side of things, but his bat sounds very promising and he sounds like a good enough athlete to stick at 2B or 3B. My only concern with him is his patience. It may sound weird, but I’m concerned he might be like Vitters in that his plate coverage is a bit too good, where he’ll be aggressive and make contact with pitches he’d be better off avoiding.

I really like Vogelbach. Yes, his weight is an issue, but apparently he’s working very hard to keep that under control and lost 40 pounds recently. That sounds like really good discipline to me. His bat and power sound like legit tools, which this system really needs, especially at 1B.

As for the rest of the picks expected to sign, Zych and Dugas are two of my favorites. I’m curious to see if Zych could be converted to starter, but his stuff sounds good enough that he should move quickly. Dugas has a really underrated bat and surprising power for his size. He’s advanced and should move quickly, perhaps be a quality 4th OF in the majors. Tayler Scott also sounds really interesting.

Those guys all make this a sound draft.

What would make this a great draft is if the Cubs manage to sign a good number of high profile guys like Gretzky, Maples, Dunston, Jacquez, et al. who will require substantial bonuses. Yes, the Cubs have had success with lesser known late round guys who were bought out with $100k-$150k bonuses in recent memory (McNutt and Struck come to mind), but these high profile guys are much more tantalizing and offer impressive upside. I’m especially interested in Maples and Jacquez, as it sounds like they both have good 1-2 punches in their fastballs and curveballs.

One thing is worth noting about Maples. He’s committed to UNC as a kicker for their football team, in addition to his baseball commitment. I have to wonder if the Cubs would be able to structure a Zach Lee-like deal for him, where the Cubs could pay out his bonus over an extended stretch because of his football commitment. It’s an interesting possibility that may make him more signable than people think.

To those of you who helped run the Cubs mock draft last weekend, I wanted to say thanks. While in the end it wasn’t quite for an emergency, I am glad that you all pitched in to help! Next time I’ll actually try to attend it myself…

Should I be recalling the mental picture of big Henry Sanchez when the Twins grabbed him in the first round a few years back?

And unrelated to any actual baseball, don’t you have to sign a power hitter named Rock Shoulders just on principle???