Post-Hype Analysis: Dexter Fowler

by John Sickels on Mar 28, 2026 9:00 AM EDT

Post Hype Analysis: Dexter Fowler

Colorado Rockies outfielder Dexter Fowler was a hot prospect two years ago. Where does he stand as we enter 2011?

Dexter Fowler has been in the majors for two seasons now. He hit .266/.363/.406 (94 OPS+) in 2009, then .260/.347/.410 (92 OPS+ ) in 2010, with virtually identical amounts of playing time both seasons (518 PA in '09, 505 in '10). He's stolen 40 bases in 69 attempts. He's drawn a fair number of walks (124) in 1050 PA, but also strikes out a considerable amount (225 whiffs). His WARs improved from 0.4 in '09 to 1.7 last year, primarily due to better defensive performance last year.

He hasn't been terrible, but he has been a disappointment considering the expectations generated. I had him as a Grade A- and the Number Six hitting prospect in baseball entering 2009, for example. His makeup and personality drew raves in the minors, he was obviously athletic and tool-laden, and while there was some BABIP luck boosting his minor league numbers, I felt the combination of tools, personality, and improving performance as he moved up the ladder augured well for his future.

Well, what about it? Is this all there is to Fowler?

Fowler is just 25 years old and it is way too soon to conclude that this is all we'll get out of him. Take a look at his Sim Scores through age 24: Lou Brock, Ray Lankford, Charlie Duffee (1890s player who didn't last long), Luis Matos, Jim Landis, Bernie Williams, Alexis Rios, Marquis Grissom, Mike Menosky (1910s player), and Torii Hunter.

That is a highly intriguing list. The two throwback players Duffee and Menosky were long-term busts, both out of the majors by age 28 although both had some short-term success. Luis Matos last appeared in the majors at age 27 in 2006. But everyone else on the list ended up having a long and successful career, with the top guy developing into a Hall of Famer. Indeed, the statistical parallels with Brock are eerie: Brock had an OPS+ of 92 at age 23 and 91 at age 24, with 40 steals in 69 attempts, in 1077 plate appearances (Fowler has 1050 PA) though that age, virtually identical to Fowler.

No, this doesn't mean that Fowler is going to turn into Lou Brock or Bernie Williams or develop the amount of power that Torii Hunter did. But it does show that it is possible, and that of ten very similar players through age 24, seven of them went on to have very good careers. It is way too soon to cut bait on Fowler.

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Comments

Gun to your head

Fowler or Maybin?

by realitypolice on Mar 28, 2026 9:57 AM EDT reply actions

hmmmm

Let me think on that. i will do one of these for Maybin.

by John Sickels on Mar 28, 2026 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions

That is a good question

Albeit aggressively phrased. I think I’d lean Cameron Maybin, but said player is on his third organization already too. More risk I guess as the contact issues are very tangible, but all reports are he is a good kid who wants to get better too. I still wish Detroit had handled him a little more responsibly.

by Matt0330 on Mar 28, 2026 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't know the answer

but I think Maybin playing in Petco Park can only help him, right? He can put his speed to work and stop swinging for the fences.

by rmarx on Mar 28, 2026 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Am with you

Yes, I think this year (& the ancillary surroundings) could constitute something of a perfect storm for Maybin in terms of opportunity.

by Matt0330 on Mar 28, 2026 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Can't see picking Maybin.

Fowler has already shown a very strong walk rate in the majors, and has gradually improved his contact skills to where they aren’t a problem at all (26.8 K% in 2009, 23.7 K% in 2010, 20.4 K% in 2H 2010). He hit 20 doubles and 14 triples in 439 ABs last year, which shows some pretty strong gap power.

Fowler looks to me to be on the verge of a breakout in 2011. A strong defensive center fielder who walks 12% of the time, K’s 20%, who runs the bases well, and is good for 50+ XBHs? That’s a pretty damn good player. If Fowler develops some of the HR power many have projected for him, or continues to improve his contact, he’s going to be a monster.

Then there’s Maybin. He really hasn’t shown anything in the majors. Despite an average-at-best walk rate, he projects to have one of the higher strikeout rates in the bigs. He could turn in a good year with a 2010 Austin Jackson-esque ~.400 BABIP, and he’s shown the ability in the minors to do just that. Betting on it in the majors, however, seems foolish. The one thing he’s got over Fowler is HR pop, but it remains to be seen how that’ll fare in Petco.

I’m not sure what there is to like about Maybin other than tools. He hasn’t spent much time in the majors (~600 ABs), but he hasn’t shown any improvement in approach or pop in the time he’s been up, and that’s reinforced in his minor league stints as well. On the other hand, Fowler has his own flashy toolset and has shown production in the majors and the ability to improve himself over time. He’s a pretty easy choice over Maybin.

by PissedMick on Mar 28, 2026 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Good spin

I agree in that Dexter Fowler is the safer player but I don’t feel comfortable writing Cameron Maybin off yet at this point. This is a player who has been a stellar minor leaguer but hasn’t really been treated as such by his last two organizations (rush job by Detroit & herky jerky handling by Florida respectively). Even Alex Gordon probably thinks Maybin has been handled haphazardly.

Maybe Spring is in the air and I can’t see the forest for the trees but I think that the younger Maybin still has time to make good on some of his potential. There will always almost assuredly be some swing & miss in his game, but I think he has a tick more upside than Fowler who is practically forceless against LHP & whose ceiling I am less high on than you.

by Matt0330 on Mar 29, 2026 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions

"[f]orceless against LHP"

I think I’ll take Fowler’s career .291/.375/.421 line against LHPs.

by PissedMick on Mar 29, 2026 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions

You didn't need the parentheses

Forceless is a word & the spelling/usage was fine.

Anyways, yes, my point was more or less Dexter Fowler’s lack of HR power as a right handed batter (2 career & I believe 0 in ‘10) & I didn’t mean to imply that he was absolutely without value from the right side of the plate. Sorry for the ambiguity.

by Matt0330 on Mar 29, 2026 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

It was my mistake. I meant to capitalize it in the brackets, which is what made them necessary.

by PissedMick on Mar 29, 2026 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Hakuna matata

Not a big deal at all & I like Dexter Fowler a lot for what it’s worth. You’re absolutely right that he has improved & although not rushed to the extent that Cameron Maybin was in the Summer of 2007, he was thrown into the MLB mix a little rapidly as well (also platooned later on when he really would have been helped by more regular time - in MLB or the PCL). So it isn’t as if his development path has been perfect either. I think he has the makings of a fantastic defender as well.

by Matt0330 on Mar 29, 2026 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, don't get me wrong, either.

I think Maybin’s got a great chance to be a good everyday player, and maybe more. If he improves his approach, it’ll go a long way toward getting him there. Fowler just checks a lot of the boxes that define a breakout candidate for me. Maybin could get there too, and I’ll be watching him closely this year to see if he’s learning.

by PissedMick on Mar 29, 2026 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

We'll have a much better idea who Cameron Maybin is after this season.

The only thing that will keep him out of the lineup everyday is injuries. He really seems to like playing aggresive Padre baseball and seems to be fitting in well. It can’t be overstated that he’s only 23 with barely a full seaon of AB’s to his credit. In a perfect world, he should barely be getting his first chance in the majors this season. Much like Will Venable, he’s got the tools and we’ve got the time to develop them here in San Diego while the club rebuilds. I’m really rooting for him this season.

One caveat; I have heard reports and seen on some video a potential fatal flaw in his swing. I’ve seen the arc of his swing sweep downward. This is likely the cause of his poor contact rate. If we can get him to generate more lift in his swing and bring it in line with the path of the ball then his BABIP and power numbers could only increase.

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by padmadfan on Mar 30, 2026 4:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Ray Lankford

What a pity such an exceptional player had to play within an era where gorillas won MVP’s.

Albert Pujols is a god, and you my friend should be doing no less than groveling at his feet.

by CoolCat23 on Mar 28, 2026 10:51 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

If Dexter Fowler has his peak

Rockies fans should consider themselves lucky.

Albert Pujols is a god, and you my friend should be doing no less than groveling at his feet.

by CoolCat23 on Mar 28, 2026 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Lankford was no small man...

and those mid-90’s St. Louis teams were a fishy bunch. I don’t think Fowler will have quite his peak, but I will root for it to happen.

by SenorGato on Mar 28, 2026 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

great article

he led the majors in triples last year, so that alone makes him interesting heading into this year… i think, SO FAR, he’s shown alot more then Maybin has. i agree with PissedMick’s comments, maybe Fowler vs Ajax will be fun to watch

by ufo on Mar 29, 2026 2:53 AM EDT reply actions

Fowler or Bourjos?

What is the chance that Bourjos outperforms Fowler in 2011? Bourjos seemed a little overmatched last year, but claims to be more comfortable now.

by Caesar Tovar on Mar 29, 2026 10:40 AM EDT reply actions

Fowler

I think people are WAY too down on him. He skipped Triple-A in his first ascent to the majors, going straight from AA. That was a mistake in my opinion as he was clearly raw and needed the extra seasoning. However, despite being rushed, he’s shown a strong walk rate. That’s really encouraging to me. I like his defense and athleticism. He needs to work on his base stealing technique to improve his success rate, but he should be solid there (I’m thinking a Ray Durham-type base stealer). I don’t think the power ever approaches what some thought it might, but I could see him hitting 15-20 in his prime, which is nothing to sneeze at from a guy who could easily put up a .400 OBP with 30+ steals at the top of the lineup.

by polodude017 on Mar 29, 2026 11:06 AM EDT reply actions