All Questions Answered

A healthy Viz would be a strong candidate for the Top 20 pitchers and possibly Top 10….even Top 5 if all goes REALLY well.

Hmm…i’d prefer to answer this in early April once the final rosters come out.

I am pro-Jerry Sands and obviously his performance this spring has done nothing to make me change my mind about that. I think he’ll hit if he gets the chance to play.

Drabek because I think his stuff is a little better and upside are a bit higher.

That said, I like Owens a lot and I think he is underrated. People sometimes dismiss him as a finesse type but that’s not really accurate.

That’s too vague of a question really for this format.

Positives are power potential and throwing arm….negative is age, he was old for a high school kid, and there are mixed reports about his plate discipline and level of polish at the plate. Position will be either third base or right field. Ceiling would be 30-homer power with a decent batting average and OBP. Floor would be someone who fizzles out in Double-A if he can’t control the strike zone. Let’s see how he looks three months from now with some pro data.

Well I wouldn’t say "once in a generation’ quite yet. But this is one guy that I trust the scouts about. Combination of things…people whose track records I trust giving me very positive evaluations, video, my own instincts, etc

Well personally I’d prefer it if all of these guys got more minor league time, but I’m very conservative about promoting prospects quickly. I felt Betances was the most advanced pre-spring, but Banuelos looks terrific from everything I’ve heard and he sure looked good to me in the Arizona Fall League.

I would put Betances and Banuelos ahead of Brackman at this point.

Hmm…i haven’t thought about him in terms of comps…not many pitchers like him around…trying to think of a 5-10 lefty his weight who throws as hard as he does….he’s pretty unique.

How I think they will rank in spring 2012?

Matias
Allie
Yorman

I think he will hit about the same this year as he did last year. The key will be if his glove stays good enough for him to play despite the weak bat, which gives him time to make some adjustments and eventually hit OK. I’m thinking of guys like Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel, who couldn’t hit early in their careers but played because of their glove, but eventually had some good years with the bat too.

I haven’t heard anything yet…i would assume he would start at Elizabethton in June and then move up to the Midwest League in August if he hits well in rookie ball.

Excellent tools by all accounts, outstanding basestealer, has some power. Main weakness is plate discipline and once-per-game strikeout rate. It will be interesting to see if he can handle breaking stuff in the Midwest League. Lots of upside, if he hits in the MWL his stock will rise a great deal.

I havent’ heard anything specific this spring about Vitters in terms of altering his swing, although I may have missed something. I did hear that the Cubs felt he didn’t always take things seriously in the past, but there was indication this winter that he was changing that attitude. He’s still at least a year from being ready to help IMO.

Let’s see…I project him as a .260-.280 hitter with 15-20 homer power. his minor league career line is .273/.342/.456 and in the majors I think he’ll hit about like that once he gets some experience. Not a superstar but decent for a third baseman.

Casey Blake.

Interesting…that’s really all I can say about it without having seen him myself. I think I will poke around and ask if other people have had this impression of him.

That’s kind of a vague question…not sure how to answer it. Right now we are at the part of the spring when everyone is in a good mood and optimistic and people aren’t picking apart player’s weaknessess too throughly yet, plus teams are trying to “spin” their prospects to some extent, talking up how good they are. This is a way to boost morale of the player as well as cheer the fans, influence other teams, etc.

I gave him a C+ in the book, rating him as a possilbe fourth outfielder albeit a good one, due to a broad range of skills…speed, OBP, some power. Let’s see….he’s hitting .522 with two homers so far. I don’t think that changes my opinion in any negative way, LOL…but I’m not going to change my view based on 23 at-bats, either.

Well everything I hear about this guy’s glove is excellent…the bat, not so much. He’s athletic and looks like he can hit, and maybe since he’s Cuban his development curve will be unusual. But from what he did last year I don’t see any reason to be especially optimistic.

I can see him becoming a guy who can hit an empty .270 with a low OBP.

Rock Chalk Jayhawk KU

Rendon or Cole…..damn, well I’d probably go with Rendon today because of the pitcher injury risk, but I’d have to think about it.

Probably more of a late August or Sept guy unless there is a rash of injuries.

I don’t think he’ll keep enough of his speed to swipe 20. But I can see 15-20 homers out of him. I am pro-Martinez.

Sorry!

Hmm….love the glove, bat very erratic. My guess is that he ends up as either a utility guy or trade bait, but has a few seasons where he picks up 400 at-bats. i can see him as a guy who has a really good year or two in the age 27-28 window but doesn’t sustain the hitting.

I think he’s probably ready or really close to ready, although given what happened with Tilman and other rushing cases, the Orioles maybe cautious. Another 10 starts in Triple-A certainly won’t hurt anything.

if that helps
;)

Hmm…older prospects. Have to think about that one, look up birthdays, etc.

That would be a good topic for a larger post….please remind me to do that, it deserves a fuller answer than I can give here.

Well, barring some sort of horrible injury or something, I think a Dunn-like outcome is Harper’s FLOOR. His ceiling would be Griffey/Pujols.

hmmm….

How about a 6-0 version of Tim Salmon?

Nope, not really…just waiting to see if he can hold up under a workload or not.

Well, they are very different players. My guess is that Sands will be more successful in the short run, but Robinson should age better. Assuming that Robinson hits as he should. I am very confident in Sands.

By ETA: Ramirez, Rienzo, CBM, Tago, Reed

By Ceiling: Tago, Ramirez, Reed, CBM, Rienzo.

If they have had a full year or almost full year of Triple-A, I begin the season with them in the majors if I am contending or somewhere in the middle and am confident in the player. If my team sucks, then I probably do the service time thing and call them up in early June.

If they have had a half-year or less of Triple-A, I begin them in the minors.

Oh, have to go with Moore on talent, although I’m sure the Rays will be conservative about promoting him given their history. I don’t think the other guys have any chance to move 2 or 3 levels this year. Hicks and Singleton MIGHT end the year in Double-A if they tear up High-A.

I was JUST about to post something on Michael Choice before yours came up. Personally I’m encouraged by what he’s been showing in ST, since he hasn’t been swinging for the fences and has a solid 3/3 K/BB in 17 ABs, a tiny but noteworthy sample size since the biggest knock on him is that his loud mechanics would give him an unsustainably high K rate against major league pitching.

Look, I love the guy but it’s spring training, we really need to temper expectations here.

I’d say 30 homers, 20 steals if he really pans out.

If he continues to progress on defense and hits .280 with power and solid OBP, I think is very plausable, he’ll be in the top 20. It wouldn’t take much to get him there as a catcher.

I know it frustrates people when I say that….you can find places on the internet with people making fun of me for saying “need more data,” but I have to call it like I see it, and if I really don’t know and need more data, I’m not going to pretend. As you point out, this is very common for guys at the lowest levels.

There are a lot of guys in this category but one who stands out is a pitcher drafted by the Rangers last year, Luke Jackson. I think he could be a special pitcher.

yeah, he still gets good reviews for his arm and upside but as you point out, the numbers aren’t there yet, with some signficant command troubles last year. I thikn this year in Low-A will tell us a lot. Breakout is always possible for a guy with arm strength but I don’t see any real reason to expect it right now for him. But it is too early to give up. NEED MORE DATA :)

Probably Graham.

I’d say he is closer to Green in approach, not as much speed as Finley, although I don’t think he will hit as many homers as Green did.

No.

Plausable but not likely….he doesn’t have to be protected on the 40-man yet, so I think it likely that the Royals would go with other options unless 1) other options are exhaused and 2) Lamb is dominating the high minors.

Both 1 and 2 COULD happen. The chance isn’t miniscule. But it is less than 50/50

From what I have seen Sands is more athletic and has more defensive value. Sands strikes out a lot, but Goldy strikes out even more and that’s a caution flag. Let’s see what he does outside the Cal League.

You mean, visually, like in terms of tools?

I am NOT saying he will be a star. But James Jones LOOKS like a player if you see him in uniform, VERY athletic.

I like Eibner can be the best of that group. I think he’ll retain his speed longer than Parker will, although I like Parker too. Szczur is faster, not sure what his power will look like.

Hmm…I had not thought of that comp but I can see where you are going with this.

The problem for Brown now is that wrist injury. If he struggles, it will be hard to know if it is because of the wrist or not. Wrist injuries can foul up hitters for a long time even after they are “healed.” Ks are an issue for Brown, yes.

I’ll say no. But then better in 2012.

It isn’t hyperbolic.

Just like that.

I’d take any of them but they are all really good.

i don’t know…I’d have to go back and look at the injury reports.

Well, it’s a health question and I try to avoid those.

He has the upside to be a number two starter if he stays healthy. I don’t know how realistic it is. I put him as a sleeper basically to remind people that he is still out there.

Craw….I’ll say he’d hit exactly .234/.308/.365 if promoted to the majors today.

A-

If you ran a poll, I have to imagine Brian Cashman would win in a landslide.

No idea.

Liddi is taller and younger and has more power. Darnell has better feel for contact and sharper command of the strike zone. Who gets to the majors first will depend on team needs, but I think both need another year in the high minors before being ready. I’d say Liddi’s upside is probably a tad higher.

Good question. I think both are bettter off as relievers, but I think Rogers would probably do better than Scheppers would as a starter.

Spring reports on Schep are pretty negative last I heard.

Jansen, Collins, Braddock, though that is NOT a knock on Braddock, who I like a lot.

I’m not sure what you mean by post-hype…do you mean guys who aren’t rookies anymore? People who haven’t lived up to expectations but still might?

I don’t believe in him. Fifth outfielder.

This is a rapid-fire format. Try 2-4.

Power prospects
Bryce Harper.
HUGE GAP
Moustakas
Montero
Chris Carter
Many candidates for 5-10.

I don’t think his pirates number are a fluke. number 3 starter.

we have less than 50 left and if people want a hard copy they need to order them! There won’t be reprints

Too broad a question really….would make a good longer post.

Well in the book I gave him a C+ but wrote that he was a “late bloomer to watch closely.” I could raise that to B- but it is hard to give a higher grade to a position player who is 26 years old.

Haven’t heard anything specific lately. He’s walked three in five innings which seems to be his biggest problem. Dayton Moore seemed pretty excited about him a couple of weeks ago.

I like him, see him as a possible very solid fourth or maybe a three starter if it all maxes out. Main concern is durability/healthy. Stuff not in the elite class but good enough when his command is on, which it usually is.

If he hits in Double-A I think people will believe.

Well….it is just spring training, but i don’t like the pattern. I wonder if there is a physical issue here that we dont’ know about. That often turns out to be the case with sudden performance collapses.

That’s how I see him. Mets fans love to tell me I’m wrong about that.

There might just be a perception issue here. I think a good fourth outfielder is a very valuable thing, esp. once who hits lefty. People seem to think it is an insult. It isn’t.

Well….at his peak Bonds was a better defender and I’d say they are about even with the bat all things considered. I don’t know how you account for the PEDs but Bonds was amazing even before he did that stuff.

Everyone would want me to say Williams since Bonds is so hated, although Williams wasn’t greatly liked in his time by a lot of people either.

I haven’t paid enough attention to their immediate plans for him, I’m sorry. I know there was some early buzz about “wow this guy is even better than we expected” but that’s a couple of weeks old.

I’d love to but we’ll see. There are always family things I have to deal with that come before baseball.

I expect very good performance at the Low-A and High-A levels (assuming he starts in Low-A, he may start in High-A) with a chance to see Double-A in the second half. I think he’s a significant sleeper.

2014 earliest

Hmmm….I’m not sure any of the current regular third basemen really fit.

Maybe Bill Mueller with more power?

Well, if he REALLY maxes out and develops a strong secondary arsenal to go with his fastball and athleticism, he could be a number two starter.

Comp….hmmm….Josh Beckett perhaps if he picks up another inch of height and a bit more weight. I could see him putting up similar numbers.

I’ve gotten that message here, and on the Royals, Chiefs, Saber, and NFL Draft pages as well as a couple of other team pages.
It seems to be a problem almost entirely exclusive to Internet Explorer as I do not get it in Firefox or Chrome.
I suggest that till they get it figured out that you simply switch to one of those browsers.

I am working on a draft piece but I got sidetracked with other stuff. I will get back to it as soon as i can.

Well some people seemed oddly down on Brett Lawrie pre-spring training. I’m not sure why…maybe it is the “red ass makeup” thing although there are other players with similar personalities who don’t seem to get downgraded for it. He did decently in Double-A last year despite having skipped High-A, he is more athletic than given credit for, and I still buy into the bat.

I think I’m higher on Derek Norris than a lot of people. I think his glove is underrated.

Well, he was awful in the Pioneer League which isn’t a good sign. however, he is young enough to overcome that. I’d say less than 50/50, but not impossible.

Actually i could see both of them doing pretty well. I mentioned Humber in the Rice piece last week as still capable of doing something interesting, likely as a fifth starter.

Lastings, boy I don’t know what to make of him. He could go on a three-month tear and then get hurt or suck or both.

Well I always worried that he was a bit overrated anyway, although I bought into the idea that he could be a decent regular. Way too soon to give up on a guy after less than 200 at-bats. Still think he can be decent, not a star.

Well all of thsoe guys have a potentially high ceiling. I guess I’d go something like

Cosart, Colvin, White, Dwyer, Britton, Torres in terms of ceiling.

In terms of safety/likelihood, I’d say….White, Torres, Britton, Dwyer, Colvin, Cosart. But it is all very close and if you aks me tomorrow you’d probalby get a different answer.

I have seen him pitch in the minors and watch every start he has made in the majors. The reports are true: above average (barely) fastball, plus-plus changeup, and average to above average curve. His command is severely underrated though. It isn’t good, it is plus-plus. His ability to hit his spots is so good. On top of that, he fools hitters by throwing pitches you normally wouldn’t expect. I remember seeing him throw three straight changeups to one batter for three straight swings and misses.

He doesn’t have great stuff, but I don’t see why he can’t be an ace. He carved up MLB hitters in his first 4 starts. He did struggle in relief though.

Yes. Hellickson can be a genuine ace. I think even now that people are underrating him. He is fully capable of pitching like Greinke did in 2009.

Somewhat plausable. Could still have very long career.

^Make this green

John is among the best in the biz, and the readers always provide great/fascinating questions. I always look forward to these threads eagerly, and keep hitting refresh all day long.