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Fantasy Baseball 2012: Devin Mesoraco or Travis d'Arnaud?

Two of the best catching prospects in the majors right now are about to make an impact on their respective major league rosters in 2012, and fantasy owners should take notice. Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco, barring an injury, will be the starting catcher in Cincinnati this season. On the other hand, Blue Jays catching prospect Travis d'Arnaud may need to wait a few months, via some AAA seasoning, before getting the call to the big league team.

I was reading Keith Law's chat over at ESPN on Thursday afternoon, and came across this Q & A:

Beau (NOLA)

D'Arnaud or Mesoraco? Why?

Klaw
(1:38 PM)

Mesoraco. Major-league ready immediately, cleaner health record. Both are future stars though.

I have to agree with Law here, but I may be biased, as I own Mesoraco in an NL-Only keeper league. Catchers who can hit for a good average and solid power are few and far between, which makes them very valuable in MLB as well as in fantasy baseball.

Like I mentioned previously, Mesoraco will be starting the 2012 season as the Reds starting catcher, with Ryan Hanigan backing him up. d'Arnaud will start the season in AAA, as he is currently blocked by 2011 call up J.P. Arencibia, although d'Arnaud is considered the better all around catcher, providing value at the plate and behind it.

John's thoughts on Mesoraco and d'Arnaud and more after the jump:

Star-divide

John has not published his Top 20 Reds prospects for 2012 yet, but this is what he wrote about Mesoraco in his Cincinatti Reds Top 20 PRESEASON Prospects in Review back in late July:

2) Devin Mesoraco, C, Grade B+: Hitting .305/.376/.496 with 38 walks, 73 strikeouts in 351 at-bats for Triple-A Louisville. Has caught 25% of runners. Very strong year confirms '10 was not a fluke.

Mesoraco did prove that his breakout in 2010 was no fluke, as he continued to hit for average and power, yet his

SLG indicates some dropoff as he moved up a level. His home runs dropped from 26 in 2010 to 15 in 2011, yet his

doubles dropped from 36 to 25. Even with the power dropoff, Mesoraco maintained a solid eye at the plate as he

walked in just over 10% of his at bats. I wonder if John will maintain his B+ ranking or he pushes him to an A- for 2012.

Here are Devin Mesoraco's career minor league stats, courtesy of Baseball-Reference:

Year Age Lev G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2007 19 Rk 40 137 16 30 4 0 1 8 15 26 .219 .310 .270 .580
2008 20 A 83 306 29 80 13 1 9 42 20 64 .261 .311 .399 .710
2009 21 A+ 92 312 32 71 22 1 8 37 35 76 .228 .311 .381 .692
2010 22 AA-A+-AAA 113 397 71 120 25 5 26 75 43 80 .302 .377 .587 .964
2010 22 A+ 43 158 24 53 11 2 10 31 19 29 .335 .414 .620 1.035
2010 22 AA 56 187 42 55 11 3 13 31 18 37 .294 .363 .594 .957
2010 22 AAA 14 52 5 12 3 0 3 13 6 14 .231 .310 .462 .772
2011 23 AAA 120 436 60 126 36 2 15 71 52 83 .289 .371 .484 .855
5 Seasons 448 1588 208 427 100 9 59 233 165 329 .269 .344 .455 .799
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/17/2011.

John recently published his Top 20 Blue Jays prospects for 2012 where he ranked d'Arnaud as his #1 prospect in the stocked Toronto system:

1) Travis D'Arnaud, C, Grade B+: Borderline A-: He would be an A- or maybe even an A if he was more effective at throwing out runners and struck out less often, but he can really hit and is still a superior prospect even with those weaknesses.

While Mesoraco had his breakout season in 2010, d'Arnaud had his breakout season in 2011. Playing in more than 100 games for the first time since 2009, d'Arnaud showed improvement across the board as he triple slashed .311-.371-.542 with 21 HRs and 78 RBI in 424 at bats at AA New Hampshire. He strikes out a bit more than Mesoraco and walked in just over 7% of his at bats in 2011. He benefitted from an unsustainable BABIP of .365, so it will be interesting to see how he fares in AAA in 2012.
Here are Travis d'Arnaud's career minor league stats

Year Age Lev G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2007 18 Rk 41 141 18 34 3 0 4 20 4 23 .241 .278 .348 .626
2008 19 A--A 64 239 33 73 18 1 6 30 23 39 .305 .367 .464 .831
2008 19 A- 48 175 21 54 13 1 4 25 18 29 .309 .371 .463 .833
2008 19 A 16 64 12 19 5 0 2 5 5 10 .297 .357 .469 .826
2009 20 A 126 482 71 123 38 1 13 71 41 75 .255 .319 .419 .738
2010 21 A+ 71 263 36 68 20 1 6 38 20 63 .259 .315 .411 .726
2011 22 AA 114 424 72 132 33 1 21 78 33 100 .311 .371 .542 .914
5 Seasons 416 1549 230 430 112 4 50 237 121 300 .278 .336 .452 .788
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/17/2011.

Heading into 2012 drafts, both d'Arnaud and Mesoraco are a must own in dynasty and keeper leagues, if not owned already. Mesoraco is a late round choice in mixed leagues and a mid-round selection in NL-Only leagues, while d'Arnaud may not be draftable in some leagues since he will be starting the season in the minors, but fantasy owners should pay close attention to when he finally does get the call, and grab him off the waiver wire.

Who would you rather have going forward? I prefer Mesoraco as he hits in the better hitter's park, so I give him the nod over d'Arnaud right now.
Poll
Who would you rather have long term: Mesoraco or d'Arnaud?
Devin Mesoraco
518 votes
Travis d'Arnaud
327 votes

845 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 23 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Mesoraco

The only problem with him is how much playing time he gets, given that the Reds still have Ryan Hanigan, and they seem to like having a more even split of catching playing time than most other clubs. Also, given the Reds have Votto, he won’t ever get slotted in at first base to keep his bat in the lineup the way that Cleveland do with Carlos Santana.

by A Behemoth on Dec 18, 2025 8:05 AM EST reply actions  

good point

I watch lot of NL baseball being a Dodgers fan, and also play in several NL-only leagues, and the Reds announcers have always praised Hanigan for his ability to coach, and say that he will probably end up being a coach somewhere in MLB. With that said, he is no slouch at the plate, so I could see a bit of a split of playing time to begin the season.
But, everything I read from John Fay, the Reds beat writer for the Cincinnati Post says Meso will be the starter.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 18, 2025 8:33 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm not sure how good Mesoraco's defense is

but isn’t d’Arnaud defense supposedly rated as plus? I think he’s real life value is higher than his fantasy value.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 18, 2025 10:33 AM EST reply actions  

which is exactly

why I voted Mesoraco.

Although we’ll have to see how TDA’s defense really is.

Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter

by Woodman663 on Dec 18, 2025 11:02 AM EST up reply actions  

yeah

I’d vote for Mesoraco, if it’s only for fantasy

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Dec 18, 2025 11:24 AM EST up reply actions  

With the Grandal trade, Mesoraco faces no real threat of being supplanted by another catching prospect in the near future.

On the other hand, A.J. Jimenez could potentially swipe d’Arnaud’s job within 2 to 3 years seeing that he’s pretty good at what d’Arnaud struggles with (throwing) and hits well albeit with limited power. And then there’s also the powerful but erratic bat of Arencibia lurking at the big league level too. My choice is Mesoraco, primarily because he’s put up 2 strong offensive seasons in succession at the AA and AAA levels and secondarily for the reasons above (Arencibia and Jimenez are bigger threats to get playing time looking forward than Hanigan and Tucker Barnhart). Having typed that and stating the obvious, Mesoraco still has to hit in the spring to win the Reds’ starting catching job. If he struggles, the Reds (and Baker) would be more than comfortable beginning the year with Hanigan as the starter and allowing Mesoraco to get more of that proverbial seasoning in AAA.

by reillocity on Dec 18, 2025 11:08 AM EST reply actions  

but

they don’t have a backup catcher now that Ramon Hernandez signed with the Rockies. I don’t see Mesoraco heading back to AAA, but stranger things have happened (see Belt, Brandon).

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 18, 2025 2:18 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree that it is fairly unlikely that he’d struggle enough in Arizona to warrant being sent down (<20% probability). Most likely Mesoraco hits enough to begin the year as the starter.

by reillocity on Dec 19, 2025 1:54 PM EST up reply actions  

I

went with D’Arnaud solely because I believe they are similar talents and D’Arnaud gets to play with and in that Blue Jays offense.

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 18, 2025 11:22 AM EST reply actions  

Mesoraco

hits in a hitters park and a pretty decent lineup as well.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 18, 2025 2:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Rogers Centre is certainly a hitters park

I have no problem with grading Mesoraco as a better hitter in the long run, but judging by park factors, GABP and Rogers Centre is about even.

by msgg139 on Dec 19, 2025 2:09 PM EST up reply actions  

i'm confused
yet he increased his doubles from 36 to 25.

i’m not great at math, but i do know that going from 36 to 25 is not an increase.

by JoelGuzman'sScout on Dec 18, 2025 11:38 AM EST reply actions  

corrected

thanks.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 18, 2025 2:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Uh, not really
His home runs dropped from 26 in 2010 to 15 in 2011, yet his doubles dropped from 36 to 25.

Grammatically, “yet” would imply a contrasting point, and factually his doubles increased from 25 to 36. We all have those days dude.

by Evan_S on Dec 19, 2025 4:04 AM EST up reply actions  

Since we are talking fantasy baseball I will take the guy not in Petco!!!!

Big Sexy

Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey

by King Billy Royal on Dec 18, 2025 12:08 PM EST reply actions  

You're thinking of Yasmani Grandal

the guy the Reds traded.. Mesoraco plays in Great American

I am the Walrus

by yleviticus on Dec 18, 2025 12:24 PM EST up reply actions  

My bad

Good point. KBR had a long night at work and needs to give his head a shake. I think I would still go D’Arnaud since he can steal some DH at bats but it is a tough call.

Big Sexy

Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey

by King Billy Royal on Dec 18, 2025 1:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Sickels' grade progression

D’Arnaud was a B- before 2011, and has just gone to a B+, borderline A-.

Mesoraco was a B+ before the 2011 season. His season proved that the 2010 breakout was not a fluke; should be A- at minimum once the Reds get graded.

by DevilsAdvocate on Dec 18, 2025 12:45 PM EST reply actions  

Yep

but that’s the entire package and not just fantasy.

I like D’Arnaud in a Blue Jays offense over Mesoraco in a Reds offense for fantasy purposes.

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 18, 2025 1:14 PM EST up reply actions  

even hitting

in the hitter’s park that is Great American Ballpark?

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 18, 2025 2:22 PM EST up reply actions  

The Rogers Center is a hitters park too

but I agree with you, for fantasy defiantly Mesoraco

Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?

Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".

I tweet sometimes

by jaysfan100 on Dec 18, 2025 3:44 PM EST up reply actions  

D'arnaud!!!

In a 5 category fantasy baseball league, D’arnaud had better 2011 stats in each of the 5 categories (Avg, Hr , Rbi, Runs, adn Steals). Also Toronto’s offense is better generally than Reds (more runs scored), and D’arnaud is likely to be protected by Escobar vs Mesoraco would probably be protected by the pitcher.

by Matthew Mueller on Dec 19, 2025 12:17 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

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