When Should Jeremy Hellickson Be Promoted?

by John Sickels on Jul 13, 2025 2:00 PM EDT

As I've written numerous times, I think most players strongly benefit from a year at each minor league level. Many teams like to promote players directly from Double-A these days, but I think in most cases it is a bad decision. Double-A and Triple-A teach different lessons, and skipping the latter often backfires.

That said, there can be exceptions at times, and Jeremy Hellickson of the Tampa Bay Rays could be one. He's currently 11-2, 2.21 with a 104/26 K/BB in 106 innings for Triple-A Durham, 94 hits allowed, 2.61 FIP. The guy is just a monster; his minor league career record is now 45-15, a .762 winning percentage....yes I know wins are not a predictive stat, but c'mon: .762? You have to be impressed with that. He has a 2.62 career ERA, and a 611/126 K/BB ratio. He's given up just 462 hits in 567 innings. His career FIP is 3.11, and has been over 4.00 just once in his career, during the second half of 2008 in his first exposure to Double-A. Statistically, it is hard to be better than Hellickson. Scouting-wise, he may not throw 100 MPH, but his stuff (89-93 MPH heater, plus changeup, good curve) is solid and his feel for pitching and aggressiveness are first-class.

At this point, there is no real pressure to promote him. The Rays rotation is healthy. David Price and Jeff Niemann have been excellent, and Matt Garza has been pretty good. Rookie Wade Davis has been ok, not great but not bad enough to lose his job at this point. James Shields has an elevated 4.87 ERA, but has maintained a good K/BB ratio and his spot doesn't seem in jeopardy. It seems quite possible that both Shields and Davis could do better in the second half. The Rays are also conservative about promoting pitching prospects, and like to give them a full year at each level, the same philosophy that I expouse.

The Rays are just two games behind the Yankees and lead in the wild card standings. But let's say that as August approaches, one of the starters gets hurt, or Davis implodes, or Shields' luck doesn't rebound and his ERA creeps over 5.00. If you really need another starter, would you pull the trigger, promote Hellickson, and stick him in the rotation for the stretch run? Or would you stick with the development program, keep him in the minors until September, and give Andy Sonnanstine a chance to start again?

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Read More: Jeremy Hellickson (P - TAM), Wade Davis (P - TAM), James Shields (P - TAM), Tampa Bay Rays

Comments

I'm kind of on the same page as you, John.

http://dockoftherays.com/2010/07/13/one-mans-take-on-the-hellickson-situation/

The great thing about baseball is that it requires careful observation not simply attendance and it rewards the analytical person while consistently befuddling the superficial.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jul 13, 2025 2:09 PM EDT reply actions

HMMM

Not sure there is an easy answer to this. Most of the time questions like these have some many other factors involved that will persuade you one way or the other. If there are no bullpen injuries and you can spare Sonnanstine to throw in the rotation I say you go down that road first and see how it goes. Also how is Hellickson pitching leading up to the time he is being considered for a promotion? How many innings has he logged for the year? Do you have a max inning limit for him in 2010? Where do you sit in the standings and how are the other 4 starters doing at the time? To me this isn’t a simple yes or no answer. I personally am not bringing up a starter to make his MLB debut in the heat of a division in the historically hardest division in baseball that gets the most press (good or bad). If I brought him up he would at least initially be the long man and Sonnanstine would be the starter. That way he at least gets his feet wet and you can control what situations he gets brought in to pitch AND you can control his innings.

by JDizzidy on Jul 13, 2025 2:14 PM EDT reply actions

I hope

that when the brewers trade Hart for him that he can come up and start right away!

by St.Steve on Jul 13, 2025 2:17 PM EDT reply actions

they are not trading him to the Brewers

by thedudeofdudes on Jul 13, 2025 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions

If the Brewers pull that off

I’ll buy Diamondbox seats for you and I, for his first home start….not kidding.

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by Kerm on Jul 13, 2025 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions

nice!

I doubt it as well, but it is clear the market is heating up for Hart and the rays appear to be in the mix…I would gladly take Davis and/or Colome/Torres.

Maybe Wheeler from the Giants?

by St.Steve on Jul 13, 2025 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

I forgot to mention...

you have to buy the beer though. Which actually makes it pretty close to a wash.

In all seriousness, any of your proposals would be fine by me. If the Brewers can get any pitcher, at any level of the minors, who projects to be more than a back end starter, then I would be ecstatic.

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra

by Kerm on Jul 13, 2025 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions

srry John

Didn’t mean to hijack your topic. I have never created a fanpost b4, but thinking about doing one on what the brewers can reasonably expect to get for Hart and Fielder-since it is pretty clear both are moving prior to the deadline. Hearing rumors now that the Braves may want Hart too…man lotta young pitchers to wade thru from ATL…

by St.Steve on Jul 13, 2025 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Davis is more likely

Although DRaysBay is mostly in agreement that they wouldn’t trade Davis for Hart.

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by Brickhaus on Jul 14, 2025 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions

If someone does bad or gets hurt

I prefer Hellickson over Sonny myself. I was never really a big Sonny fan.

by thedudeofdudes on Jul 13, 2025 2:25 PM EDT reply actions

It seems to me

That the only way Jeremy is called up before September is if there is an injury to one of the starters that will last into September and if, independently, the organization concludes that his development at AAA is complete.

Hellickson has thrown 105.2 innings this year. Last year, he threw 114; his high is 152. I would imagine that he probably will be limited to another 45 innings, putting him on track for 175-180 in 2011, and 200+ in 2012 (they tend to take off the reins between 24-25). If he gets a September callup, they’ll be able to give him a couple of starts (much as they did with David Price) and some work out of the bullpen. The Rays know that there tends to be an adjustment period for any rookie starter (Price in ‘09, Davis in ’10), and even exceptional command/control doesn’t prevent that (Greg Maddux’s rookie year).

by sstamour on Jul 13, 2025 2:25 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

I think that TB is trying to move Davis if they can add a big bat

maybe Fielder? Because they have a ton of confidence in what Hellickson can do, especially right away. I can see Hellickson getting of to a Tommy Hanson like start if he pitches the rest of this season. Judging by his SS rate, especially the first time he faces a team (while still up this year, his numbers last season in AAA were even higher). I take that as his stuff being tough to hit, include his fastball which has been described as explosive and comes on hitters quicker than they expect. I wouldn’t expect the Rays to demote Davis or send him to the pen just to get Hellickson in the rotation, but don’t be suprised to see a starter moved.

by Dbullsfan on Jul 13, 2025 2:38 PM EDT reply actions

Yep. I was thinking he's kind of trade insurance.

If someone makes them an offer that includes them getting rid one of the arb-eligible back end starters while getting a rental bat, then a Hellickson call-up would be on the table. Would giving up a pitcher [like Shields] for Dunn make sense? Nats can take on salary. Rays get a rental. They can then decide on whether to resign Pena or Dunn and if Dunn leaves their shrewd scouting department will get Type A picks. I’m a Nats fan half rooting for the Rays to fall out of the wildcard spot due to offensive futility, especially from Pena so that the Rays will get in on the Dunn sweepstakes and end up bidding with the Angels. Don’t think Dunn goes to the ChiSox.

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by souldrummer on Jul 13, 2025 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I wouldn't bring up Hellickson before next year

unless Davis gets traded. Shields could have a 6 ERA and I would keep trotting him out there. His fastball has seen a bump in velocity (2 MPH earlier in the year, a solid MPH now), his changeup and curveball have been as effectve as ever, and he is striking out alot more batters. Too much past success, even with past home run issues, to take him out for an unproven rookie.

by Navi's_Navy on Jul 13, 2025 2:43 PM EDT reply actions

right now

he`s had more than enough experience and success in the minors to warant him getting a promotion. The Rays have a nice problem right now

by daman316 on Jul 13, 2025 4:46 PM EDT reply actions

now

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by bestbostonsports on Jul 13, 2025 5:05 PM EDT reply actions

I would want to see Hellickson in the majors now

I would want to see what I have before the playoffs and if he can help now over Davis that’s important in a close race with the Yankees and Red Sox. I guess they’d always have the chance to look at him in September before any potential postseason play, but it’ll be easier for him to be an asset with experience now.

by oplaid on Jul 13, 2025 6:54 PM EDT reply actions

request

As you note here, you often mention that Double A and Triple A teach different things and provide different experiences. I was wondering if sometime you might elaborate on what you think those differences are in a more extensive piece, perhaps followed by some Prospect Retros (reposts if you like) that show the benefits and perils of different amounts of exposure to the two levels. I think it’d be a pretty fascinating feature on here, especially in an age where so many teams seem to be using AAA as an organizational graveyard and bench player holding area.

by mrkupe on Jul 13, 2025 8:20 PM EDT reply actions

Sort of an OT Question

The guy is just a monster; his minor league career record is now 45-15, a .762 winning percentage….yes I know wins are not a predictive stat, but c’mon: .762? You have to be impressed with that.

Hey John, is this the same sentiment that you’ve been using in your appraisal of Madison Bumgarner over the past 13 months? MadBum’s overall minor league record was only 34-6, for a winning percentage of .850, all before he even reached the age of 21. Meanwhile, Hellickson’s record was 17-6 before the age of 21 - all at or below the low-A ball level.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Jul 13, 2025 8:45 PM EDT reply actions

To answer your primary question, I’d say that the Rays should definitely promote him whenever they need him this season, unless they go into a prolonged tailspin the rest of this month (not due to starting pitching) and fall out of the pennant chase. Pitching in the majors this year is not likely to damage his development, IMO. Worse case he justs spends another few months in AAA at the beginning of next season. I would even suggest that it would also be a good idea to bring Hellickson up even if they just needed him to shore their bullpen for some reason. Pitching out of the pen for a month or 2 didn’t seem to kill David Price when they brought him up at the end of the 2008 season.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Jul 13, 2025 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah, it's time...

hopefully they can swing a deal…hard to send Davis down but you know, it’s called pennant race..right? A trade is the best scenario and not unlikely…the kid should be in the majors now..nothing left to prove…

by nordica on Jul 14, 2025 1:39 AM EDT reply actions

When Hellickson represents a significant improvement over what they have now

If that time is now, they should call him up now.

The Rays are in the middle of a pennant race and the Yankees are a juggernaut (and, its inevitable that they’ll try to trade for someone after losing out on Cliff Lee).

If Hellickson represents an improvement over someone in the current rotation (or bullpen—-ala 2008 David Price), then call him up. If he does not, leave him in the minors.

If calling Hellickson up allows the Rays to trade pitching for a position player upgrade that could help them solidify their playoff chances and makes sense for the team, absolutely do it.

"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West

by Blicks on Jul 14, 2025 10:12 AM EDT reply actions