San Francisco Giants Preliminary Prospect List

Good List

FYI, it’s Johnny Monell (with 2 L’s) and he’s a catcher/1B not an OF.

Conversely, it’s Jason Stoffel (only one L).

It’s Zack Wheeler (with a K and no H) - easy to remember since he K’s so many hitters.

Finally, it’s Sundrendy Windster (with a D) - and he’s still projected to be an OF, depsite all the time
he spent at 1B this season (it was a logistical thing).

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 6, 2025 6:58 PM EDT reply actions

I missed a big one

It’s Jorge Bucardo (not Juan).

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 6, 2025 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions

sorry

Sorry guys I am operating on very little sleep. All this will be fixed on the real list

by John Sickels on Nov 7, 2025 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Don't worry about it

Just trying to help out.

Hope you had a good time at the Rising Stars game.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 7, 2025 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions

How does the organization that is currently known for its starting pitching stack up in future seasons? How does the organization stack “up the middle” ?

by wilriv21 on Nov 6, 2025 7:11 PM EDT reply actions

IMO, their strength is up the middle and pitching. Besides Brandon Belt at #1 and Thomas Neal at #3 or 4, every other prospect in the top 20 is a pitcher, catcher, CF, or middle-infielder.

The other thing is that, with the promotion of Posey and MadBum, this is a decidedly bottom-heavy prospect list. The vast majority of the top 20 are at A+ ball or lower.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 6, 2025 7:19 PM EDT reply actions

/reply fail

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 6, 2025 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Grades

If we are to use the A, B and C grades how does the organization rate out?

by wilriv21 on Nov 6, 2025 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m not sure what you’re asking for. Do you want a single letter grade for the whole system, or do you want the total number of prospects in each letter category?

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 6, 2025 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Do we have any “A” grade prospects? If any, who?
Do we have any “B” grade prospects? Who?

by wilriv21 on Nov 6, 2025 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions

One could argue Belt is an A-

Wheeler is probably a B

"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Nov 6, 2025 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions

the well is kinda dry

by wilriv21 on Nov 6, 2025 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions

If Huff and Uribe don't re-sign they could net us some supp. picks

Hopefully we don’t give up our 1st round pick on a Type A FA

"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Nov 6, 2025 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I could see the Giants offering Huff arbitration but not Uribe.

Also could see the Giants signing JJ Hardy. Would he cost us anything?

by wilriv21 on Nov 6, 2025 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, he still belongs to the Twins at the moment, so I’d say: Yes.

My Bucardo is better than yours.

A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

by Roger on Nov 7, 2025 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions

They will offer Uribe arb - if it gets that far. That’s a no-brainer. They want him back - he’s #2 on their list after Huff. There’s no better FA shortstop available. Worse case they get a comp pick out of it.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 7, 2025 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions

B+ for both Wheeler and Belt for me

I’ve just recently become convinced that Belt is a B+ talent. Gary Brown gets a straight B.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Nov 6, 2025 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Belt has to be an A- for sure

With all his tools and production. Eric Hosmer was an pure A, according to Sickel, and all that he has over Belt is a liitle footspeed and the fact that he’s 18 months younger (while Belt plays better D and has more power).

As John Manuel wrote in a recent article, and said during the Rising Stars broadcast, Randy Knorr (the Scottsdale manager) and an unnamed scout both called Belt simply “the best hitter in the AFL.” A league that includes Hosmer and Dustin Ackley.

I agree that Wheeler is a B+ and Gary Brown is a B. I would also rate Thomas Neal a B-.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 7, 2025 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Maybe for John, but Hosmer is not a straight A for me

I’m trying to decide whether he deserves an A- or a B+ (I have him as a B+ right now, but flirting with the idea of bumping it up). Belt is on the lower end of B+’s right next to Freddie Freeman.

The reasoning is fairly simple. First basemen have to forces offensively to be above average. As a result, I have to be pretty damn high on a bat for him to get into the A category when they provide minimal defensive value. Montero is an A- for me and there isn’t a bat in the minors that I like more than his.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Nov 7, 2025 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions

its interesting that you value defense so highly

How do you view Hosmer and Belt if you compare them only within the position of first base?

It also brings up how do you value defense in a comparison list? If there is a guy better than most in his position and its a weak defense position, how does that penalize/reward him when viewed vs a tougher d position and a weaker bat?

Scouting the Royals
Royals Prospects

by 306008 on Nov 7, 2025 10:06 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

It just puts significantly more pressure on the bat

Take someone like Adam LaRoche. He has a career wOBA of .351 (with a peak of .379) and he has never put up a WAR total above 2.6. I am fairly frugal with my A and A- grades (when it comes to hitters at least), and I just cannot project that kind of certainty with many prospects’ bats.

Hosmer is clearly the best first baseman (unless Montero is in the mix) for me with Belt and Freeman on the next tier, but does that mean I’m fairly certain he’s going to be a well above average offensive player in the majors? I’m wavering on whether or not I do.

As for other positions, I try to take total value into account. So, guys that I project to be good defensive SSs will get a pretty big boost from me as their bats do not have to be anything special to be impact major leaguers.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Nov 7, 2025 10:27 AM EST up reply actions

belt might play some OF in the majors

shouldn’t that be taken into account in ur grading system?

by zeisenbe on Nov 8, 2025 3:39 AM EST up reply actions

Well, how well is he going to play OF?

That matters a lot more than if he gets time there. A poor defensive corner outfielder doesn’t make him any more valuable (it may even make him less valuable, see: Jason Kubel).

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Nov 8, 2025 7:30 PM EST up reply actions

where do u get that he would be a poor corner outfielder

He’s shown more than decent speed and everyone knows he has a gun for an arm, he was once considered a better prospect as a pitcher than a hitter.

by zeisenbe on Nov 9, 2025 4:43 AM EST up reply actions

I’m a big Belt fan, but even I have to admit that he’s not a good OF at this point. He had a few starts in LF & RF in AA and AAA at the end of this season, and eyewitness reports stated that he was very shaky there. He does have adequate speed to play the OF, but he didn’t get good jumps on balls, and he didn’t take good routes.

Belt’s future in the majors is as a 1B, where he’s a plus defender. If the Giants run into a block, they’ll just move the ofther 1B (most likely Huff) to the OF or the bench. FWIW, Brian Sabean was quoted just in the past few days as saying that they will play Belt at 1B if he forces his way onto the team next season.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 9, 2025 11:44 AM EST up reply actions

What about Panda?

If Sandoval’s bat comes back, but his fielding stays erratic, then he will be the first baseman and Belt will have to win an outfield spot.

by nelson95 on Nov 9, 2025 11:47 AM EST up reply actions

I agree with you that if Panda hits his way back into the starting lineup next year it should be at 1B. However, I think the Giants will still give him a lot of playing time at 3B next year, unless he just totally goes to pot. No, if Panda is playing 1B next season, and they’re satisfied with their 3B and OF output, then I believe the Giants won’t promote Belt until they trade Panda.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 9, 2025 12:33 PM EST up reply actions

Panda could be traded

He’s not exactly an elite talent.

"Out of chaos comes order" - Nietzsche
"Oh, blow it out your a__" - Olson Johnson

by Russ on Nov 11, 2025 12:29 PM EST up reply actions

Now there’s the definition of selling low.

My Bucardo is better than yours.

A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

by Roger on Nov 11, 2025 1:07 PM EST up reply actions

And if Sandoval never comes back?

"Out of chaos comes order" - Nietzsche
"Oh, blow it out your a__" - Olson Johnson

by Russ on Nov 11, 2025 1:12 PM EST up reply actions

I didn't say he definitively would be

I asked what kind of defense is he going to play there, and provided an example of an outfielder who hurts his value by playing there. He could be an average outfielder, but I certainly wouldn’t bet on that outcome. I expect him to be a 1B long term (and will continue to evaluate him as one), and I’ll be skeptical of his ability to play OF well until I see it.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Nov 9, 2025 1:46 PM EST up reply actions

its interesting that you value defense so highly

How do you view Hosmer and Belt if you compare them only within the position of first base?

It also brings up how do you value defense in a comparison list? If there is a guy better than most in his position and its a weak defense position, how does that penalize/reward him when viewed vs a tougher d position and a weaker bat?

Scouting the Royals
Royals Prospects

by 306008 on Nov 7, 2025 10:07 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

i agree with Jar

Belt B+

Hosmer A-

I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!

Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?

I hate Hunter Wendelstedt, you hate Hunter Wendelstedt we all hate hunter w

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 7, 2025 11:42 AM EST up reply actions

Belt and Hosmer

I’ve been high on Belt all year, and with John’s comments yesterday I would be shocked if he doesn’t get an A-

by ADLC on Nov 8, 2025 4:26 AM EST up reply actions

I should have also added that a case can be made for Chuckie Jones being a B-. BA singled him out as having the “Best Pro Debut” of any high schooler in the 2010 draft. His power output in the Rookie Leagues was 2nd to no other high school draftee, he played above-average D in CF the whole season, he showed that he could get on base (OBP=..360 with a10.5% BB-rate), and he displayed plus speed (6 of 8 stolen base attempts).

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 7, 2025 8:16 AM EST up reply actions

you forgot to mention he strikes out like Chris Davis.

by zeisenbe on Nov 8, 2025 3:40 AM EST up reply actions

That’s why he would only be a B-, if he had his K’s under control a case could be made for him being a B+. Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t Chris Davis ranked as high as a B+ during his minor league career?

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 8, 2025 2:41 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah he also hit 30 hrs a year, and only k'ed at a 22% rate

But I was using Davis sarcastically, not as a comp.

I really don’t know the difference between a C+ and a B-, I don’t know if I particularly care. I am a Giants fan who follows the minor league system. I like some of your write-ups, they are sometimes very informative, but at other times you lose your objectability.

What exactly about Chuckie Jones screams future star to you other than some tidbit BA wrote? He doesn’t have a high draft pedigree, he strikes out 60 times in 165 AB’s (just awful). i don’t have time to do the math but the fact that he maintained a .280 BA and a .360 OBP must have been due to a pretty ridic BABIP. He hit 5 hrs and got 6 sbs in 165 ABs which is good but nothing special. He didn’t finish strong, etc.

Now don’t get me wrong, I like him as a sleeper prospect, he’s young and has some tools, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Even if he halved his K numbers I don’t think he would be close to a B+ prospect. That would be pretty elite company.

by zeisenbe on Nov 9, 2025 5:02 AM EST up reply actions

That objectability

I lose it all the time too. ; )

/just joking with you - this post has a lot of validity to it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature;=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.

by IHateSouthBend on Nov 9, 2025 11:53 AM EST up reply actions

My response:

1. I wrote that a case could be made for him being rated a B-, not that I would rate him that highly. Right now I have him between a C+ and a B-, but I’m leaning toward the C+.

2. You ask what is it about Chuckie Jones that screams future star. I would turn that back onto you and ask what is it about any 18 year old kid that screams future star? I think the standard answer to that by the vast majority of talent evaluators is his tool set and how he plays in actual games. In Jones’s case, he is a true 5-tool talent. He can do it all in the field and at the plate. He also has proven that he can translate those tools into above-average play in actual games against much older players and with wood bats, while playing the premium position of CF.

3. You write that hitting 5 HRs in 165 ABs is nothing special, but no other 2010 high school draftee hit more than 5 HRs last year, and only 1 other hit as many as 5. Seems like the definition of “special” to me.

4. You wrote that Jones “didn’t finish strong” I dont know where you get your numbers from, but my numbers show Jones finishing with the following stats in his last 21 games:
.311/.395/.446/.841 with 2 trpl., 6 dbl., & 15 sngl., plus 10 BB (11.8%) & 22 K (25.6%)
That’s a very strong finish in my books, but I guess a .395 OBP and .446 SLG mean nothing to you.

5. You wrote that if he halved his K numbers he wouldn’t even be close to a B+ propect. Let’s look at that. For the season Jones had a K-rate of 32.1%. Half of that would be 16.1%. If you assume that some of those ABs would have turned into hits or walks, then all of his other offensive numbers would have been even higher. But, even if you just go with his old numbers and the new K-rate, then I think many evaluators would jump him up in the B+ territory. A 5-tool kid that spent half the season at the age of 17, and in his first try with wooden bats put up his power numbers (SLG=.461, ISO=.182), with a great OBP (.360) and elite BB-rate (10.5%), while only striking out at a 16.1% rate. Yeah, that would have been pretty heady stuff.

5. BA is not the only evaluator that were/are impressed with Jones. I’ve read very postive comments/reports on Jones at 2 other sites

6. Finally, you wrote that he doesn’t have a high draft pedigree. That’s not much of an argument for me. Once you get beyond the first 15 or so picks in the draft, where a guy is drafted doesn’t mean much to me. The failure rates of highly-drafted players is just too close to those in other rounds for me to use that as a crutch. Not to mention, that once you get past the 2nd round it especially doesn’t matter much where a high school kid is drafted, because then you start getting into the fact that the prospect fell due to non-baseball related details like his choice of college and his bonus demands.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 9, 2025 12:27 PM EST up reply actions

The sample sizes flying around here are absurd

Let’s just say that his tools and scouting reports are promising and worthy of a C+ ranking, and be done with this all, okay?

Using short-season stats, particularly if you then break them up further, can only provide marginal benefits.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature;=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.

by IHateSouthBend on Nov 9, 2025 2:14 PM EST up reply actions

1) You did say if he got his K’s down he could be a B+ prospect.

2) Yes, I said I like his tools, but his numbers are inflated by a high BABIP, he K’s too much, period. He has a lot of work to do before he becomes a good prospect.

3) You do realize that most HS’ers, especially the earlier picks, didn’t even get to play and most HS’ers that did sign in time did not get 160 AB’s. To say he has the most HRs of a HS is great but I think you are manipulating the facts a bit to make him sound more “special” then he actually is. Instead of comparing him to players that haven’t played or played limited time, why don’t we just judge him individually? Probably because it’s less impressive.

4) Yes I suppose you could manipulate his ending to look good or bad depending on which arbitrary spot you chose. I was just looking at the last 10 games where he OPS’ed .640 and struck out 11 times in 34 AB’s. Either way, 160 AB’s is a small enough sample size, to reduce it even further would eliminate statistical relevance. But he did continue to strike out a high clip even at the end of the year. Also, i don’t know where you get your numbers but 61 k’s in 165 AB’s does not equate to a 32.1 k rate, it is 37%. Half that and you get 18.5% k rate which is good but not mind boggling. And as I’ve said before his OBP is inflated by a .414 BABIP. If he had just a .330 BABIP, his OBP would be around .320, nothing impressive.

5) Yes, he has tools. I like his tools too. But even if he eliminated his K problem, how many commentators would have this guy top 100?

6) I’m not sure I believe you on this one. When you are commentating on your sleepers, you say things like “we drafted this guy in the 15 round but he really was supposed to be a top 3 round talent.” That was just an example not a quote. So I find it hard for you to say that draft pedigree doesn’t matter. That is the first real evaluation of a player’s talent. I find it unlikely he was holding out for ridiculous money and that’s the reason he fell, he signed early (hence why his numbers are better than other HSers).

Look I said I liked the guy, I just want to see him perform at a higher level and close some of his holes before I jump on his bandwagon.

by zeisenbe on Nov 9, 2025 2:52 PM EST up reply actions

i don’t know where you get your numbers but 61 k’s in 165 AB’s does not equate to a 32.1 k rate, it is 37%

You’re showing your ignorance here. K-rate isn’t defined as K’s divided by AB’s, it’s defined as K’s divided by PA’s. You don’t penalize a hitter for the BB’s, SF’s, and HBP’s he earns during the year. That’s where the 32.1% comes from. Jones is rewarded for his high BB-rate.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 9, 2025 3:53 PM EST up reply actions

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa548399&position=OF

by zeisenbe on Nov 9, 2025 4:43 PM EST up reply actions

FG is just flat wrong. That’s what you get for blindly accepting numbers from unoffical sites without crunching any numbers for yourself. Didn’t you think it was strange that FG used the AB number to calculate the K-rate, but the PA number to calculate the BB-rate? Jones had 20 BBs. 20 divided by 160 = 12.5% while 20 divided by 190 = 10.5%

Let’s do a little hypothetical exercise on 2 different players:
Player A: AB=10, K=2, BB=0, HBP=0, SF=0, SH=0, H=3
Player B: AB=10, K=2, BB=5, HBP=5, SF=5, SH=5, H=3

Player A had 10 PAs, Player B had 30 PAs.
According to your (and FG’s) formula both players would have the same K-rate of 20%.
Acoording to the correct formula, Player A’s K-rate=20%, Player B’s K-rate=6.7%.

Which formula do you think gives us the best picture of the player’s propensity to strikeout?

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 10, 2025 12:53 PM EST up reply actions

You got to be kidding me. 1) I did know fangraphs calculated their k rate a different way then other sites, one of their writers described the reason why they did it and it seemed persuasive. They are trying to isolate the skill of making contact. 2) Are you seriously trying to tell me you crunch every single number individually? That would be very impressive.

But really I think you might have just made my point, I think k/ab in this case may better measure a players propensity to k out in this instance. Maybe player B is Barry Bonds and he got walked intentionally 5 times (or pitched around 5 times), or that the pitchers he was facing were particularly wild. I don’t think a k rate should reflect things out of the players control: if he gets intentionally walked, hit by a wild pitch, or is just not given anything to hit, that reflects little to no ability not to strike out. And if your bunting every time up, sure you could probably put it into play more, but again is that really reflective of one’s ability not to k out?

by zeisenbe on Nov 10, 2025 3:09 PM EST up reply actions

Okay

This is crazy. First, let’s not start assuming that a player is being intentionally walked and hit more than he’s being unintentionally walked. Because I’m pretty sure that far, far fewer PAs result in an intentional walk OR HBP than an unintentional walk. Yeah, maybe the guy was intentionally walked, or hit, or pitched around, but we can’t assume this is the case, simply because the vast majority of the time it’s not. And that’s not to mention the most common of those, being pitched around, is not exactly an objectively identifiable scenario. And the other two are accounted for elsewhere; if you think that a player’s BB% is being inflated by IBB/HBP, then go check those stats. They’re easily available.

You’re right that a player’s K rate shouldn’t reflect things out of his control. Unfortunately, it’s directly tied to something that is entirely out of his control: the strike zone. An ump with a tight zone will result in fewer strikeouts, and an ump with a wide zone will punch more hitters out. So why are we letting that be taken into account when it’s out of the players’ control? Hell, maybe the pitcher’s all hopped up on caffeine and can’t hit the strike zone. Then he throws a wild pitch and allows an unearned run, and the catcher slips and falls on a banana peel, tweaking his shoulder, which results in him being unable to throw out a runner at second, who then takes out the third baseman on another steal attempt, breaking his femur so that he can’t go dancing with his girlfriend, and then she ends up leaving him and marrying his brother, who’s got a pretty serious drinking problem, and the first baseman, who is the third baseman’s brother’s secret gay lover, eventually confronts his new wife and tells her everything, which causes her to become depressed and rampage through a Wal-Mart with an AK-47, killing Donald Glover’s half-brother, causing Glover to make a tribute to him on Community just offensive enough to get the show canceled, and that would make me sad.

…The point is, stats are invariably going to be affected by things out of a players’ control, and while we should try and limit that as much as possible (IBB and HBP should be, and I would imagine are, excluded from BB% because they’re not considered BB’s), “pitching around a guy” is too subjective to be considered. Oh, and if a guy’s bunting every time, he might make some more contact, but he’ll probably also hit .200/.200/.200, so whoopee, you’ve got a K% of zero, but your hitting coach is screaming at you to stop freakin’ bunting and I’m pretty sure you’re not going to be considered a prospect even with the K-rate. So that’s not particularly relevant either.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Nov 11, 2025 1:55 AM EST up reply actions

maybe your looking at this too literally

I didn’t read your whole analogy because it was ridiculously long and in my opinion unnecessary to make your point. The example that was used in the argument that you were replying to admittedly was also ridiculous, just shorter and more focused to the point of the argument.

From what I read of your post, you didn’t really make a determination of whether k% should be determined using ABs or PAs. Though I think both have legitimacy, the reason I prefer to use ABs is that it isolates the skill of making contact.

You are right that there are so many variables that we cannot control for that make it impossible to know the true ability of a player to make contact. One such variable that you mentioned is changing umpire strike zones. But that doesn’t mean we can’t make improvements to our statistics to better control for some of these variables. By eliminating BBs, HBPs, and sacrifices, we get a better idea of a players true ability to make contact. If you walk, for the most part you weren’t given good pitches to hit; thus it has little correlation with your ability to make contact (this is especially true for IBBs). If you get hit by a pitch, then obviously you aren’t given the opportunity to make contact. And if you sacrifice, something that is much easier to do (arguably) then getting a hit, then that’s something that also should be excluded from a measurement of your k rate. And I was talking about sacrifices, not bunts; successful sacrifices won’t affect your BA/OBP/OPS but it would affect your k rate if it is determined using PAs instead of ABs.

by zeisenbe on Nov 11, 2025 3:16 AM EST up reply actions

didn't have time to go into detail earlier

different people/sites calculate k% differently. fangraphs calculates them as a product of AB’s because, in the low minors especially, pitchers can have awful command and they don’t think hitters should get rewarded for swinging at pitches nowhere close to the k zone. Additionally, managers at that level tend to dictate when to sacrifice, etc. and it would be better if those decisions weren’t reflected on a person’s k rate. Firstinning.com calculates them based on PAs.

I can see arguments for either k% based on ABs or PAs, but if your going to respond why don’t you respond to the meat of the message, instead of singling out one part that seems to indicate your superior baseball knowledge and responding as a douche?

Anyway you can’t deny his BB/K is under .33 and that is bad. And you also can’t deny that while his statistics were good, they weren’t amazing and they were significantly inflated by a high BABIP. You can see he’s a B- instead of a C+, I’m really not sure there is much difference between the two; I just think he’s a good sleeper prospect until he does something more at a higher level, nothing else.

by zeisenbe on Nov 9, 2025 7:16 PM EST up reply actions

Additionally, managers at that level tend to dictate when to sacrifice, etc. and it would be better if those decisions weren’t reflected on a person’s k rate.

Do managers also dictate when their hitters should hit a sacrifice fly, or get hit by a pitch? Also, please enlighten me, at what level of baseball do the managers stop deciding when a batter should sacrifice bunt?

douche?

NIce comeback Einstein.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 10, 2025 1:02 PM EST up reply actions

you really don't get it do you

A player (unless his name is Chase Utley) does not decide when he gets HBP, that’s exactly why him getting hit by a wild pitch should not be included in his k rate, it marks no ability to put the ball in play (to not k out).

If you actually read the sentence that contained the word “douche” (instead of taking it out of context) it basically says why don’t you stop getting so emotional and start getting back to the original conversation we were having about Chuckie Jones. It wasn’t supposed to be a comeback or even an insult for that matter. Look for the most part I think most of my responses have been absent of emotion, I was not trying to attack you but provide an alternate perspective on a prospect. As I’ve said before, you do a lot of good work digging up info on Giants prospects, but you often have this holier than though attitude with anyone that disagrees with you that I think is unwarranted. Discourse is good, it illuminates the truth. I shouldn’t have to take your word on which prospects are good you should be able to prove it. I have already tried to veer this conversation back to Chuckie Jones but I guess you don’t want to talk about him anymore, whether it’s because you don’t like where it was going or you are just argumentative. If that is the case then I guess we have nothing left to talk about.

by zeisenbe on Nov 10, 2025 3:21 PM EST up reply actions

this.

by haverecords on Nov 10, 2025 3:32 PM EST up reply actions

+1

by lions1 on Nov 10, 2025 3:33 PM EST up reply actions

I’m not going to waste my time or effort with a person that continually misrepresents what I write, that doesn’t use generallly-accepted statistical methods, and can’t admit it when they make a mistake.

I also find it amusing that you try to claim the high ground in this exchange when you called me a douche in in your previous post.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 11, 2025 2:40 PM EST up reply actions

doesn’t use generallly-accepted statistical methods

You should probably be arguing with Fangraphs, not zeisenbe. And actually, you accused him of being ignorant, when in fact he was well aware of the distinction and went on to articulate it well. Just saying…

by blackoutyears on Nov 11, 2025 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

But he was being ignorant, because his further explanation showed that he was previously aware of some debate between using PA vs. AB to calculate K-rate, but he studiously neglected to state that in his response to my OP where I had stated that Jones’s K-rate was 32.1%.

No to mention that I don’t know anybody that uses FG as their primary source for standard minor-league stats.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 11, 2025 7:27 PM EST up reply actions

Brown's a B- for me

"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Nov 7, 2025 1:40 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Boy there’s a pretty big group of interchangeable guys, particularly in the very very low level live arm group. But I’d say if you really want to cut some guys, the most obvious one to drop out is Justin Fitzgerald, and after that I’d say Steve Edlefsen (though I understand he has a pretty decent chance of at some point appearing in the majors — I’d still drop him). And then Sundrendy Windster (he’ll be 22 in February and hasn’t made it out of the complex league yet).

My Bucardo is better than yours.

A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

by Roger on Nov 6, 2025 7:35 PM EDT reply actions

My subtractions

John, at a minimum, I would drop the following 6 guys from your list:

Justin Fitzgerald - too old & he doesn’t K enough guys to be a power pitcher, but walks too many to be a finesse guy.

Austin Fleet - nice results for this converted college reliever, but he was too old for his league and I don’t believe he has enough good secondary pitches to rank with other starters in the org.

Johnny Monell - nice power numbers, but most likely a product of Cal League. His age, defense and K’s are against him.

Rafael Rodriguez - not so young anymore (turned 18 in June), shows almost no growth and no athleticism, and appears unlikely to gain strength. Only reason to place him on the list would be because of his big signing bonus.

Jason Stoffel - K-rate is good, but his control still isnl’t there and he’s way too hittable for a closer. I don’t believe in his arsenal of pitches and I believe there are at least 8 other relievers in the system that I would rank ahead of him right now.

Sundrendy Windster - showed nice progress while repeating the AZ Rookie League (he increased his SLG by 57% and his OBP by 36%, while cutting down on his K-rate by 33%), but he was repeating such a low-level league at the age of 21. I just don’t see him having much of a future for the Giants

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 6, 2025 7:49 PM EDT reply actions

I'd keep RafRod and Stoffel

Maybe Monell, but yeah I agree with the rest of your drops.

"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Nov 6, 2025 7:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Oh and additions

Hector Sanchez-C
Brandon Allen-RHP

"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Nov 6, 2025 7:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Yup

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Nov 10, 2025 4:34 AM EST up reply actions

If pressed, I would add Ryan Cavan (no position to play for a possible above-average bat), Steve Edlefsen (his ceiling is a #4 or #5 reliever in the pen), and Juan Perez (not enough power to make up for his total lack of plate discipline).

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 6, 2025 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions

To be clear

I meant that I would add the above 3 players to my list of subtractions. In other words, I would drop them from the top 42.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 6, 2025 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Adding to your subtractions? Mind = exploded!

My Bucardo is better than yours.

A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

by Roger on Nov 6, 2025 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions

LOL

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 7, 2025 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Disagree on Cavan

If he’s got an above-average bat he’ll find a position. Even if it’s in another organization, that has value to the Giants as a trade piece.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Nov 10, 2025 4:52 AM EST up reply actions

Stoffel caught alot of flak for his season, but really his year looks pretty great outside of two, two-game blowups. If you eliminate those four games from his 52 appearances, his season like looks like this:

2.44 ERA 2.24 FIP 1.27 WHIP .227 BAA 3.2 K/BB 11.44 K/9 2.04 GO/FO with 1 HR.

And that’s a pretty good looking first pro season.

My Bucardo is better than yours.

A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

by Roger on Nov 6, 2025 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions

I am a Monell defender

The power at the muni from a left hander is promising. Unfortunately i cannot find his home road splits, but his numbers would likely be higher since the muni is known as one of the, if not the, most pitcher friendly park in the Cal league, and especially suppresses left handed batters. I am not saying he will light the world on fire next year, but to wait and see, and he is likely a C prospect.

by OmahaGiants on Nov 10, 2025 4:14 AM EST up reply actions

Honestly

I don’t see Bond as a prospect either. Doesn’t have anywhere near the power but his OBP is pretty epic and if he makes it to the majors I don’t project him to be a starter but more of a utility guy,

"He knocks a stake through the heart of the Cardinals! The Cardinals are dead! The Giants are going to the World Series!!!" -Jon Miller

t's Posey time!!

Screw you Flannery.

by sanfrankid on Nov 11, 2025 3:37 AM EST up reply actions

Other additions

Jose Casilla-RHP definitely should make the list.

And Dan Runzler-LHP spent the whole year in the majors, but he is still under 50 IP, so he technically still has prospect eligibility

"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Nov 6, 2025 8:32 PM EDT reply actions

I’m not sure about Runzler, he’s only got 50 IP, but doesn’t he have too many major league service days and been in too many games? Not counting any time after he went on the long-term DL in July, he’s got more than 5 months sevice time, and been in 52 games, since the beginning of Sept. 2009. If he was eligible, he’d certainly be a top 10 prospect.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 6, 2025 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Oops

he’s only got 50 IP…

that should be: he’s got less than 50 IP…

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 6, 2025 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions

My additions

I would add the following 10 guys to your list (from best to worst):

Jose Casilla (RHP) - great results as the Augusta closer for this ground ball machine (GO/AO=2.46) who shows great command and control (BB/9=2.8). He turned 21 in May, and he’s the younger brother of the SF Giants Santiago Casilla. Jose is said to have better stuff than Santiago did at the same age. I could see him being moved back to a starter next seson.

Brandon Allen (RHP) - A tall (6’6", 190), athletic (a star power forward on his high school team) kid (just turned 19 in the middle of August). The Giants drafted him in the 18th round out of a small high shool in central Florida. His father played several years for the Sacremento Kings in the NBA, and his older brother is on the Univ. of Florida basketball team. Basketball was his first love, so he’s never fully concentrated on baseball or pitching. Because of this he’s very raw, but has a huge upside. He already throws his FB 90-91 and it has touched 94. He shows a good feel for pitching and is a bulldog competitor on the mound.

Chris Lofton (CF) - nice transition to wooden bats by this fast and athletic former football cornerback. This 20 year old needs to work on adding power with his bat, but he has all of the tools to be an ideal leadoff sparkplug and plus defender in CF.

Carlos Willoughby (2B) - one of the real sleepers in the system. This speedy and athletic Dominican just finished his first season in the USA (playing in the AZ Rookie League) at the age of 21. He’s one of the best basestealers in the system (23/27 in 45 games & 102/122 in his last 168 games). He puts extreme pressure on the opposing team when at the plate and on the bases.

Leonardo Fuentes (LF/RF) - great tools and athleticism for this Colombian kid who was the top IFA signed by SF in 2009. He doesn’t turn 18 until Nov. 29th. He faded in the 2nd half of the DSL season, but shows great promise.

Hector Sanchez ( C ) - good D and good bat for this under-the-radar catching prospect

Craig Westcott (RHP) - hit a road bump after being promoted to AA in July, but a very nice first full season for a guy that’s only been pitching exclusively for 2 years now.

Brett Pill (1B) - he got lost in the shuffle with the Aubrey Huff’s resurgence and the emergence of Brandon Belt as a top offensive threat. He has the power, the high-contact (K-rate=11.7%) and plus D at 1B to be at least an average major league 1B. He’s a late-bloomer playing the entire season at the age of 25 (DOB=9/9/84), but I believe he’ll put up much better numbers while repeating Fresno next year.

Nick Noonan (2B) - I know that his star has fallen, but he still has to be considered for a top 40 spot. He has tools and he only turned 21 while playing AA this season, so he has time to improve.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 6, 2025 8:39 PM EDT reply actions

Definitely on Hector Sanchez

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Nov 6, 2025 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree on Willougby and Fuentes, although with Fuentes we’ll really need to wait until he gets to the States to hear some real scouts opinions. So far all we know is Edgar Renteria liked him.

My Bucardo is better than yours.

A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

by Roger on Nov 6, 2025 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Plus their area scout and at least one of Felipe Alou, John Barr, or Brian Sabean. They paid him $280K to sign, which is late 3rd round slot money.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 7, 2025 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Just their area scout though and possibly a cross-checker, though I’m not sure how likely it is that they’d get a cross-checker to Colombia. I’d be pretty surprised if Barr or Sabean had ever seen him.

My Bucardo is better than yours.

A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

by Roger on Nov 7, 2025 6:19 PM EST up reply actions

You’re most likely right about Barr and Sabes never seeing him in person, but my point was that 1 of those guys would have to be persuaded to like the guy in order for him to get that high of a signing bonus. I would bet that they at least got to look at some video clips of him.

Also, I’m pretty certain that a kid of his caliber would have gotten out of Colombia at some point to play in some games in other Caribbean country (most likely the DR) where Alou and other Giants personnel would have probably gotten some eyeballs on him.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 8, 2025 2:45 PM EST up reply actions

Wow, I can't believe I missed Noonan

He should be in there too

"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Nov 6, 2025 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions

how hard does Jose Casilla throw?

by TimLaser and MattyC on Nov 6, 2025 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Didn’t I read a quote from his bro Santiago earlier this season where he was bragging that Jose throws up to 95 mph and has a wicked sinker? It might have been something Baggs wrote about.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 7, 2025 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions

DrBG had him topping out at 90 in the Cal League championship. That’s the end of the season, but as a reliever he shouldn’t wear down much, so I’m betting he currently works around 90.

by wcw on Nov 7, 2025 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions

I believe that. I think he relies on his sinker that works best around there.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 7, 2025 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions

That’s interesting. In ST, Santiago said that Jose throws much harder than he did at the same age.

My Bucardo is better than yours.

A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

by Roger on Nov 7, 2025 6:20 PM EST up reply actions

Casilla

+1

Quite surprised he didn’t make the list.

by Ryno1984 on Nov 8, 2025 10:58 AM EST up reply actions

He's almost in my top 10

"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Nov 8, 2025 3:50 PM EST up reply actions

How far off was Matt Graham from the top 40? He was one of my sleepers from last years draft.

I'm just a dude who likes talking to other dudes about other dudes.........in a straight way.

by tj.hendricks on Nov 6, 2025 10:08 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

I’d put him in my mid-50s. He’s a lomg-term project that needs to fix his mechanics.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 7, 2025 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions

long-term

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 7, 2025 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Solid list, and I agree with a lot of the additions and subtractions listed above. I would think, however, that Edward Concepcion would merit top-40 status on the 99 mph FB alone, despite the rough transition stateside.

Hector Sanchez: Underrated. Fighting body bias since the 2009 off season. I still love you, son, even if you're fat.

by tedfordfan on Nov 7, 2025 10:12 AM EST reply actions

I toyed with adding Concepcion, based solely on his velocity (although I didn’t know that he ever threw 99 mph - certainly he doesn’t throw anywhere near that fast on a consistent basis). In the end I couldn’t rate them that high. He doesn’t have the stamina or secondary pitches to be a starter, and he gives up way too many hits (BAA always in the .260-..270 range) and walks (BB/9=6.5 last year). to be a valued reliever. Normally, a guy that throws fast but is wild, has the saving grace that they miss bats (they have very high K/9 and very low BAA). But Concepcion is wild AND he doesn’t strike out a lot of guys or make them get weak wood on the ball. Add that to the fact that he just turned 22 and has yet to get into a full season league despite being in the states for the past 2 years, and I just don’t think hat he’s much of a propsect.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 7, 2025 1:23 PM EST up reply actions

Prospect Status Updates

I think it’s a good time to get some updated opinions on some guys that haven’t been mentioned yet.

Prospects on the 40 - The Giants must value them if they are saving a spot for them. Darren Ford, Henry Sosa, Waldis Joaquin, and technically Dan Runzler, Ryan Rohlinger, and Alex Hinshaw.

Former high draft choices - How long do we wait for a long term prospect? Wendell Fairley, Craig Whitaker, Carter Jurica, Edwin Quirarte, Aaron King, Jackson Williams, Mike McBryde, Ben Copeland.

Formerly Highly Regarded - Injuries and other stuff have slowed these guys. Hector Correa, Angel Villalona, Jesus Guzman, Ydwin Villegas, Kelvin Marte, David Quinowski, Craig Clark

Pretty Good Seasons - How highly do we value recent success? Eric Hacker, Tyler Graham, Ryan Scoma, David Mixon, Luke Anders

by nelson95 on Nov 7, 2025 12:52 PM EST reply actions

I didn’t consider Runzler, because I don’t think he qualifies as a prospect any longer. I also didn’t consider AnVil, because who knows if he’ll even be able to play ball for the next several years. Beyond those reservations, both would have been on my list.

Of the other guys that you mention, I would put Ford, Sosa, Joaquin, Rohlinger, Jurica, and Graham right at the edge of making my top 45. In the end though, they all can’t quite crack the list because I don’t see their ceilings being more than bit players in the majors, and their floors are as AAAA also-rans. Of the 6 I would say that Rohlinger and Joaquin have the best shot of breaking out of the bit-player straitjacket.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 7, 2025 1:32 PM EST up reply actions

Villalona isn’t a prospect anymore. He’s gone for good.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Nov 10, 2025 4:26 AM EST up reply actions

Hacker was signed to a ML contract by the Twins

Also, I would add Thomas Neal and Brooks Kieschnick to the “Formerly Highly Regarded” category. I watched Neal a lot this season in Richmond and just wasn’t impressed. He’s like the anti-Belt in his approach and development trajectory. Kieschnick was slowed by injuries, but it was still a pretty disappointing season.

I also don’t consider Runzler a prospect anymore because he’s spent too much time in the big leagues over the last two years and I don’t consider AnVil a prospect either for obvious reasons.

"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja

by Giant Torture on Nov 10, 2025 2:27 PM EST up reply actions

well in all fairness to Neal, he showed marked improvement over the season and it was impressive how he was able to get his OPS back to .800 considering his bad start (like .650 after the first two months). It showed he could make adjustments. But yeah, this year was a little disappointing and puts his last year in perspective.

by zeisenbe on Nov 10, 2025 3:26 PM EST up reply actions

I also think that pitchers in A and AA tend to wear down towards the end of the season, although I have no proof to back this up. It would seem though that pitchers who weren’t used to pitching that many innings would begin to wear down as they pushed themselves further. I know that there’s a lot of analysis that’s been done to support this theory when teams used to use 4 man rotations, which leads me to believe the same would be true for younger pitchers and hence makes his second half even less spectacular.

"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja

by Giant Torture on Nov 10, 2025 3:53 PM EST up reply actions

Brooks Kieschnick is making a comeback? Awesome! You’re right; it’s been a long time since he was highly regarded.

My Bucardo is better than yours.

A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

by Roger on Nov 10, 2025 5:24 PM EST up reply actions

My Top 10

New here and loving the minor league talk.
Some of the picks here are very interesting, and here’s my list of prospects.

Brandon Belt 1B
Jorge Bucardo RHP
Chris Dominguez 3B
Thomas Neal OF
Francisco Peguero OF
Eric Surkamp LHP
Gary Brown OF
Charlie Culberson 2B
Rafael Cova RHP
Brandon Crawford SS
Zack Wheeler RHP
Nick Noonan 2B

I’m not really sold at this point with a lot of a the Grizzlies named above. I think Darren Ford should be nowhere near the Top 40. I think Runzler might do something (5th starter?), but I’m done with a whole lot of this years Grizz team. I think the talent is coming this season and remains in the lower leagues. Couple of other thoughts:

-I think Wheeler is the only legit starter in the entire system. Hacker is long relief.
-Middle infield, outfield, and catchers are loaded in the system, catchers in A ball down.
-Relief looks promising. Can’t believe Rafael Cova didn’t make the list. Agree that Jose Casilla has potential too.
-Crawford better find a bat.
-Henry Sosa? Meh.
-I’d dump Alex Hinshaw. Giants have been trying to move him for awhile. Last I saw it was Japan.

by Coach Brown on Nov 9, 2025 1:25 AM EST reply actions

Not only is Hacker long relief

But he’s now with the Twins. Signed a major-league deal with them (surprising it’s a big-league deal, but oh well) today.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_9zTD9B98&feature;=related
Apparently there's an epilepsy warning on this video. But it's so incredibly cool.

by IHateSouthBend on Nov 9, 2025 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

The only one on that list that i have great pause about is

Chris Dominguez, unless you are considering him as a pitcher. I mean 24 in a few weeks, college product, putting up a 780 OPS in the Sally is not something i would get too excited about. Granted he has a tools (power, arm strength, bat speed), but can he ever convert those into a hit skill that doesn’t involve a K rate of 30? Color me skeptical.

by OmahaGiants on Nov 10, 2025 4:21 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah

Dominguez doesn’t belong inside the top 20, and only top 30-40 as a “what if he puts it all together” fantasy-type scenario.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Nov 10, 2025 4:27 AM EST up reply actions

Agree for the most part

I may be in a minority, but I just don’t think Thomas Neal will ever turn in to anything. His .799 OPS was decent considering his terrible first half, but really it’s more in watching his approach. As Pablo Sandoval learned the book will get out on you and you will have to adjust and I just don’t see Neal as someone who can make adjustments and grind out at-bats, but also lacks explosiveness to compensate, which is bad news. Couple that with a pretty meh year at Richmond and I think Thomas Neal has Tony Torcato written all over him.

Also, I would add Heath Hembree and Seth Rosin, because I think there’s a good chance that you could see Hembree in the big leagues within 2 years and I really like Rosin’s stuff. Neither would be top 10 in other organizations, but the Giants system is now bottom-heavy and top-light. I would probably drop Crawford, because I think his ceiling is beginning to look like that of a utility infielder who’s mainly a late-inning defensive replacement.

Lastly, I’d add Chuckie Jones, I know he’s a bit far out and it’s a relatively SSS this year, but he’s young and has light tower power! I’d drop Dominguez off the list because he’s still too “toolsy” and his production in the Sally is not that impressive for a college player.

"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja

by Giant Torture on Nov 10, 2025 3:12 PM EST up reply actions

The difference between Neal and Sandoval is the BB's

Sandoval never really put up the OBPs that Neal has shown in relation to his BA, and high walk rate bodes well for his future. Neal obviously doesn’t have Sandoval’s contact rate, but he does get on base more, and he’s got at least similar power, possibly better power. Pablo’s going to live and die by BABIP (as evidenced by 2009 v. 2010), and Neal will probably be a little more stable, with low BABIPs not hurting as much and high BABIPs not helping as much. But when a guy posts a 1.010 OPS one year with excellent peripherals, it’s going to take more than a season of .800 OPS in a huge pitcher’s park to convince me that he won’t be anything valuable.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Nov 11, 2025 2:01 AM EST up reply actions

I think you're misunderstanding what I said

I’m not comparing Neal to Sandoval, just making the point that at the big league level the book will get out on you and teams will exploit your weakness(es) unless you’re able to make adjustments. Watching Belt play right next to Neal was a study in contrast. Belt seemed to make in-game and in-AB adjustments, while Neal seemed to only have one plan every time he stepped in to the box. When you couple that with a lackluster year and realize the number of guys like Torcato, Niekro, Schierholz et. al. who murdered the ball in both AA and AAA, but floundered in the majors I’m not expecting much—if anything—from Neal.

"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja

by Giant Torture on Nov 11, 2025 7:45 AM EST up reply actions

realize the number of guys like Torcato, Niekro, Schierholz et. al. who murdered the ball in both AA and AAA, but floundered in the majors

The biggest problem with that statement is that none of those guys murdered the ball in AA.

Torcato mostly skipped AA (probably to his detriment). He played 36 games in the Texas League and put up a .293/.344/.388. He had been switched from a clank-gloved 3B to a no-range corner OF that same year, so why we was promoted after a month based on that line is anybody’s guess, but he would go on to post a string of pretty bad years as a corner OF in the PCL, with OPS of .756, .758, .672, .681, .725. note that even repeating the PCL 5 times he never managed to have a decent year in AAA — those lines came from a player with no defensive value, no power, and no speed.

Niekro hit an entirely underwhelming .310/.327/.424 in AA - that’s as a 23 year old 1B in the Texas League (no the EL). He went on to put up a .717 OPS in his first shot at AAA as a 24 year old 1B in the PCL. It was only after repeating the league AND coming back from the majors that he started getting his OPS into the .950, 1.000 range, and I think we must admit knowing what we do about the Giants clubhouse of that era that his sudden power spike in 2004 (nearly matching his HR output from his first 5 years in pro ball) was suspicious. It was also not much of a spike.

And Nate Schierholtz certainly had a better career than either of the other two, but he still struggled mightily in AA. Much like Thomas Neal he came out of the gate mired in a terrible slump, batting .230 well past the All Star break. He rode an insanely hot streak the final 5 weeks of the season to get his final numbers up .270/.325/.443 with 81 K and 27 BB. In other words, his season had many things in common with Neal’s but he didn’t end up with overall numbers as good as Neal and his bb rate (a constant red flag with Nate) was a good deal worse. Going up to AAA Nate would put up solid numbers, but not particularly overwhelming for the PCL, a .925 OPS at 23 with, again, a horrible walk rate (17 in in 439 PA).

All in all I think you’re thinking back hazily through the hype and not really looking at the players numbers. Lance Niekro, Tony Torcato, Dan Ortmeier — these guys had minor league careers that ranged from mediocre to awful. “Murdered the ball”? Only in your memory.

My Bucardo is better than yours.

A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

by Roger on Nov 11, 2025 8:49 AM EST up reply actions

Oh, you and your facts

Okay, so looking at the numbers you’re right about their performance in AA. All of them posted lower OPS in AA than Neal, but then again none of them really turned into anything either.

Still, I don’t think that that necessarily detracts from my point that hitters at the major league level need to be able to make adjustments and I don’t see that from Neal. Another thing that I think people overlook with Neal is that the big numbers he posted in 2009 in SJ, came as an almost 22 year old, which is a bit old for that level. Also, when you consider that Neal posted a rather meh OPS of .776 last year in the pitching-weak AFL and that he only posted an OPS of .803 in the Sally league it’s really tough for me to get too excited about a guy whose ceiling looks to be that of a 4th outfielder.

Watching him play last year, at times he seemed to have trouble catching up with the fastball, but that could be because he seemed to be guessing a lot and guessing wrong.

"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja

by Giant Torture on Nov 11, 2025 12:02 PM EST up reply actions

KLaw agrees

Me: I keep seeing Thomas Neal listed as one of the Giants top prospects, but after watching him in Richmond I don’t think he projects much past a 4th OF. What are your thoughts?

KLaw: I’m with you.

Not that he’s the end-all, be-all, but I wish Giants fans would realize that Thomas Neal will leave them feeling like the aforementioned players did.

"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja

by Giant Torture on Nov 11, 2025 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

One thing that both you and KLaw neglect to state is that you watched him play only in Richmond. Going by his stats, and his comments, he clearly was not comfortable playing in that stadium this past season. I’m not saying that you have no legit point in your view of Neal, because I value your eyewitness opinion and have respect for your previouis comments on prospects over the past several months. However, I think that you have to admit that the numbers that he put up on the road this season were well above-average for the EL, and similar to preovious highly-rated prospects in the league.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Nov 11, 2025 2:50 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks

You’re right, I’ve only seen him in Richmond and nowhere else, but it’s not the numbers or even his performance so much for me as it is in his approach. I just don’t see him as a guy who can put together 400-500 quality PA’s a year. He doesn’t seem to have a plan at the plate and is fooled often. I could see attributing not being able to catch up with the fastball at times to not seeing the ball particularly well in Richmond, but I also think that Richmond is good barometer for Telephone Park because they’re both pitchers parks and to me Neal seems to have warning-track power. I hope I’m wrong and he turns out to be something special, but if there’s a GM out there who thinks he is special I think Sabes should get what he can for him now.

"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja

by Giant Torture on Nov 11, 2025 3:08 PM EST up reply actions

I guess the last thing worth noting is that a 4th OF type, at controlled costs can be a pretty decently valuable thing to have around. Or that there’s a whole world of production possibilities that exist between “something special” and Tony Torcato-land. Just to take one pretty obvious example that’s meaningful to Giants fans right now, Cody Ross is a great example of a real 4th OF type.

You’re right that he’s going to need to make adjustments to succeed. But I think the time will come when he’ll have the opportunity to do that on a big league roster. Hopefully, he’ll take advantage when his time comes. I do believe in his tools more than I ever did with Nate. I’ll say that.

My Bucardo is better than yours.

A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

by Roger on Nov 11, 2025 3:44 PM EST up reply actions

In fact, John if you’re still looking at this thread, I’d love to see a Prospect Retro on Cody Ross next time you’re trolling for ideas on that.

My Bucardo is better than yours.

A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

by Roger on Nov 11, 2025 3:45 PM EST up reply actions

Agree somewhat

4th OF’ers at controlled costs are valuable things, however, most 4th OF’ers projected to be starters and fell short or are one-dimensional players. From that perspective, I believe wholeheartedly in Schierholtz’s defensive capabilities and believe more in his defense than in Neal’s bat.

Also, I don’t see Cody Ross as a 4th OF. Ross put up a 3.6 WAR in 2009 and a wOBA of .446 in 2008, which isn’t 4th OF at all to me. Also, in comparison to Neal, Ross posted an .859 OPS in his lone year in the EL, but at the age of 21. Ross still wasn’t considered a prospect though.

I also agree that there’s a whole world of possibilities between Buster Posey and Tony Torcato, but if I’m being honest I see Neal’s possibilities as somewhere between Schierholtz and Toracto.

"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja

by Giant Torture on Nov 11, 2025 4:09 PM EST up reply actions

Respectfully Disagree

I also value your eyewitness opinion on Neal and respect your opinion as Fla-Giant said. I have seen him play many times but not while he was in Richmond. But I feel like Neal is going to be a special player and the possibility of Posey Neal Belt and Panda if he returns to form and with the pitching we have just puts a smile on my face as a giant fan. Neal didn’t put up the crazy Cal league numbers this year like he did last year but does that mean he isn’t going to be a good major league player. IMO the signs are there that he is going to be a very good ML player. The jump from A ball to AA is said to be a big jump and a lot of our top hitting prospects from the past and even some of the other hitting prospects this year in Richmond that have made that jump struggled in some way. We all know Neal started off slow but some of the signs that really jump out and excite me about Neal is that the 1st 2 months of the season in April and May in 201 AB’s he hit .259 11-2B’s , 3HRs, 24 RBI’s and had 12BB - 40K’s not good at all from a player thats one of your top hitting prospects but a good player makes adjustments and coming off a great season the year before and with all the hype to get off to such a slow start could be terrible for a players confidence I would think and some would never rebound. But from June on in 324 AB’s I think Neal did what we expected or hoped to see him to do from the beginning He hit .312 , 29-2B’s , 9HR , 45 RBI’s and his plate discipline improved he had 32 walks and only 54K’s still not great but it was much better than the pace he was on to begin the season but the power numbers were much better maybe not in richmond but overall after June. Im not sure if this is 100% accurate I would love to find out but I heard that Neal battled most of the year with a left shoulder sprain that he hurt while making a diving catch at some point in the month of June. If that is true, that’s pretty impressive to do in your 1st year at the upper level . If some feel like this was a down year for Neal that should show the type of talent he has from the stand point it wasn’t that great of year and he might have been hurt for most of the year but yet he still managed to be in the Top 20 in almost every major offensive category Hits- 5th , Runs- 19th , Rbi’s - 19th , OBP- 13th , SLG- 21st , OPS-19th … Not Bad for a down year in a tough league. I would like to see him improve his hitting with runners in scoring position at the higher levels and improve his walk to k ratio but one thing that I have noticed is the last 3 seasons Neal’s K’s have gone down each season even while having more AB’s each year 2oo8: 428ab’s -103k’s 2oo9:-475ab’s - 98k’s 2o1o: 525ab’s -94k’s. I also want to see him clean up those errors on Defense but I do believe Neal is a much better fielder than people say he is. One thing I did notice watching Neal when he was in San Jose is that a lot of coaches throw up the Stop Sign pretty quickly when the ball is hit out to him. As much as we look at Neal’s potential offensive impact he could have. He also has the ability defensively to shut down a teams aggressiveness on the bases knowing he has a pretty strong and accurate arm. IMO, I think Neal has the ability to impact a game offensively and defensively its tough to say he will never turn into anything I think is a pretty bold statement but again I say that respectfully and thats only my opinion. I just think Neal has the potential to be Star and The Giants have two great Prospects in Belt and Neal both good offensively and defensively (Belt Better Offensively) as I said earlier add those two with Posey and Panda if he returns and the pitching thats in place at least 2 more world series over the next 5 years

by 55HOF28 on Nov 12, 2025 1:12 AM EST up reply actions

Interesting insight. I think you’re a bit on the optimistic side. As a Giants fan, I hope Neal becomes what you say, but chances are he is closer to the 4th OF type. I haven’t seen anything of him other than YT highlights, but I think if he can adjust from pitch to pitch a little better he could be a good corner OF. Not exactly a guaranteed to be relegated to the bench, but not a sure fire good outfielder. (Expecting an All-Star ML performance from him is a bit much though. At most I expect him to be a Cody Ross+, not a Holliday type.)

BTW, I don’t mean to offend, but splitting your text up into paragraphs would really help with readability. It took me a long time to read that because I kept losing track of where I was.

by tarlinian on Nov 12, 2025 4:19 AM EST up reply actions

Not offended at all … sorry about that. But, I am a little bit more on the optimistic side with Neal. Like I said I only saw Neal while he was in San Jose and obviously that was his best year in the minors. I think when I try and look at a Prospect in this case Neal, I tend to obviously look at the the Pro’s and Con’s but I really try and look at the positive things they do, the Impact they can have on a game, are they making adjustments and improving in areas that they need to improve in. If their not then IMO I think thats when the Red flags come out.

Maybe thats why Im really high on Neal and feel like has the ability to be a very solid ML player because Im looking at his improvements and not so much his stats. Even though it wasn’t stat wise that great of a year for him, Neal IMO showed the ability to make adjustments as the 2nd half showed in AA, has cut his K’s down each year and yet still has shown the ability to get on base, score runs, drive in runs and hit for a decent Avg each year.

If you look at Neal’s stats on each full-season team he has played on whether it was a prospect loaded team or not Neal has lead or been right there in every single major offensive catergory. Though, Neal didnt have the RBI totals that he has put up in the past he still was among The Top 20 in the league and to me thats still pretty good.
But thats why I said I would like to see him hit better with runners in scoring position and it will be interesting to see what he does in fresno next season from an RBI stand point. As far as HR I dont know if Neal will be that 25-30HR guy but each year he seems to be up there with the league leaders in Total XB’s just saying.

If one of Neal’s biggest Con’s is that he needs to make better adjustments from pitch to pitch. I think over time thats something Neal could improve in, the more AB’s and in game experience he gets. He just turned 23 so he still has time. Do I think Neal is ready for the Big Leagues right now No but he has shown over the course of his career so far that he has the ability to make adjustments has made improvements in areas of his game that were “Red Flags”. IMO I feel like thats a extremely positive sign from a developmental stand point.

This is why IMO I think Neal has the chance to be very good ML player because if he keeps showing the ability to make adjustments, keeps showing improvements in areas that need to be improved in while still performing at a high / respectable level. It makes me think if Neal is able to make adjustments and improve at the minor league level why wouldnt Neal be able to do it at the ML level. If Neal keeps it up what happens if he puts it all together. Only time well but Im willing to wait. Next year will be interesting I just hope the Giants Protect him this year.

by 55HOF28 on Nov 12, 2025 5:51 PM EST reply actions