Ian Krol - believer? - Minor League Ball

Ian Krol - believer?

by dbreer23 on Oct 28, 2025 2:10 PM EDT

Just wanted to get some opinions of Ian Krol before the yearly lists come out. Some say he's a well-developed advanced prospect with a bright future in OAK as a #2/3 SP, while others say he's already near his peak and will get exposed at higher levels, eventually relegating him to the bullpen.

So is he the next coming of Mark Mulder, or a LOOGY in he making? What say you?

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sounds like he’s advanced but without great stuff. so somewhere in the middle. maybe a #4? that has value.

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by doublestix on Oct 28, 2025 4:42 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah, looks like a back end guy.

Locates his fastball well, good curve… but >90 velo and overall fringy stuff. He’s getting minor leaguers out at a great rate… but it could easily be because of his polish and a plus breaking ball. I don’t think anyone would be surprised if he had trouble getting major leaguers out with that stuff. Should be a helpful arm to have around and could put together a few good years, but I doubt we have a rotation mainstay for years to come here. #4 starter who sometimes will look better and sometimes look worse.

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by alskor on Oct 28, 2025 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmm... I meant s kind of unfair.

I’m sure he hits 90 plenty… I just mean he’s around a 45-50 grade kind of velo guy.

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by alskor on Oct 28, 2025 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

"#4 starter who sometimes will look better and sometimes look worse."

So, essentially Dallas Braden?

by dbreer23 on Oct 28, 2025 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I certainly don't buy him as a #2 type

I think at this point he’s a #3 at best, a likely #4 type(and as doublestix says, that has value) unless the A’s unlock a couple more MPH on the fastball. I haven’t heard anything about tweaks needing to be made to his delivery, but in the last few years Oakland has seemed able to make slight adjustments with some arms and coax an extra tick or two out of a fastball. I think anyone that considers him a #2 type might be looking at Brett Anderson as a best case scenario, since they were both relatively polished arms for HS draftees. The key is Anderson upped his velocity to go with the good pitchability and solid secondary offerings. I wouldn’t rule out it as a possibility for Krol, but I wouldn’t want to put any money on it happening either.

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by gatling on Oct 28, 2025 4:47 PM EDT reply actions

Brett Anderson is a #1 type...

so saying his ceiling is a #2 is not the same as calling him another Brett Anderson.

I’m not sure people really fully appreciate how good Anderson has been in the last year and a half when he hasn’t been injured.

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by PaulThomas on Oct 29, 2025 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions

I should have worded my comment differently

Anderson was looked at as a likely #3 after his MWL campaign, Krol is looked at as a likely #4. For Krol to become a number #2 type starter he needs a similar type improvement as Anderson made, because Krol isn’t as good of a prospect as Anderson was at that stage. I wasn’t trying to diminish Anderson’s value, he’s absolutely been an ace level pitcher when healthy.

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by gatling on Oct 29, 2025 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Anderson also added a couple ticks on his fastball

Krol would most definitely need to do the same in order to be looked at as a future #2 or #3.

by guru4u on Oct 29, 2025 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions

And I guess that leads to my greater question...

If Krol is supposedly that advanced for a HS-draftee, what is the likelihood that those extra few MPH will be gotten? Wouldn’t they have surfaced by now?

by dbreer23 on Oct 29, 2025 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Not necessarily.

I don’t believe Anderson’s major velocity jump occurred until he was in the majors. The biggest thing is there is no guarantee that Krol will be more than he is now really. Might gain a MPH or two at full physical maturity but he’d need more than that to make a jump to a #2 type starter.

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by gatling on Oct 29, 2025 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

the other thing is

Krol might be relatively polished, but his offerings don’t offer the same upside that Anderson’s did.

I think people tend to forget just how good a prospect Anderson was coming out of high school . . .the velocity was the only flaw and even that wasn’t bad. He’s top-shelf as far as polished prep products go.

by mrkupe on Oct 29, 2025 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions

For what it’s worth, Greinke was also an advanced high school draftee who gained significant velocity going through the minors. I don’t think we can peg a likelihood on one player adding velocity over another with any certainty.

by limozeen on Oct 29, 2025 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Not necessarily

Pitcher velocity typically peaks in the early 20s.

The A’s have had good success increasing the velocity of college draftees (I think gatling actually understates their success in that regard somewhat— they’ve done amazing things with some guys, especially some of their relief prospects) but those guys are more physically mature than Krol is. There may be certain techniques that they have not yet used on Krol because of worry about preserving his arm.

Or, perhaps they’ve already gotten all they can out of him. Who knows? Still, the possibility that they haven’t, or that he matures well, is enough to give him a realistic “ceiling” velocity which is significantly better than what he has right now.

I’m not saying he’s a great prospect— I have him graded as a B and he probably would not make my top 100. I do think that people tend to sleep on prospects who fit his profile.

by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2025 2:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I didn't have an actual number to go off of

I just know there have been multiple cases where the A’s have pulled extra velocity out of a pitcher. I didn’t want to overstate the case since I didn’t have a set number to quote or anything.

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by gatling on Oct 30, 2025 3:17 AM EDT up reply actions

The guys I'm thinking of in particular

are Ben Hornbeck, Daniel Thomas and Andrew Carignan (as well as Anderson, of course).

Hornbeck went from low-80s slopballer to legitimate darkhorse pitching prospect. Thomas and Carignan both went from low-90s to high-90s (although both of them then hurt themselves, so one hopes it wasn’t through some process that causes guys to get injured— then again, Thomas was already injury prone anyway).

I think Vin Mazzaro’s stuff ticked upward some during his trip through the A’s minors, too, but I’m less sure about that one.

They also seem to have coaxed some extra MPH out of Matt Thomsen from this year’s draft, though perhaps his velocity was just down in college because his coach was using him wrong (wouldn’t be the first time).

by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2025 4:14 AM EDT up reply actions

ryan webb

Not an A’s guy anymore, but a prep arm who was all about projection and ended up making good on it. And you know they liked something about him because they weren’t really taking any prep guys at that point.

Of course, the year after Webb, you’ve got the Italiano/Lansford/Mazzaro trio, all raw products. Mazzaro has actually turned out to be the best of the three thus far, although I have seen both of the other two and both could still make it.

by mrkupe on Oct 30, 2025 7:42 AM EDT up reply actions