American League Central Division

by John Sickels on Apr 21, 2025 1:15 PM EDT Comment 61 comments

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

10 days ago: Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Zack Greinke delivers to the Texas Rangers in the ninth inning of a baseball game in Arlington, Texas, Saturday, April 18, 2009. Greinke gave up seven hits and no runs in the Royals' 2-0 win. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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I will have some draft preview material for you tomorrow. For today, let's talk about the AL Central Division, currenlty locked in a three-way tie for first place. Who will pull this out in the end? And how many games will they win? Will Zack Greinke win the Cy Young? Can Delmon Young live up to his potential? Are the Indians really a 4-7 team or will they heat up soon? Rick Porcello? Will Ozzie Guillen strangle someone? Lots of very interesting stuff going on in this division. . .I think anyone could win it.

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Who will win the AL Central?

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Tigers win

Or at least come pretty darn close. With Verlander returning to form and good midrotation material to work with in Galarraga and Jackson, we’ve got a strong top 3. A return from Bondo solidifies that and allows us to send Rick Porcello back down to the minors (he’s got to get that curve/slider combo working in order to get K’s at this level). Zach Miner/Nate Robertson fill in as the fifth starter when needed.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Apr 21, 2025 1:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm going with the White Sox

While all the teams in the division are flawed, I think the sox have the best balance throughout their team. Their lineup has enough power to score plenty of runs and their pitching is good enough. I would say that they have the second best rotation in the division behind the Twins (looking at all five starters) and their bullpen might be the best in the division.
However, I never count out the twins as they always find a way to get it done. I think the division winner will win about 86 games and there will be 2-4 teams within 3 games.

by joltinjoe on Apr 21, 2025 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

2-4 teams within 3 games

Sounds about right. I can see the Royals, White Sox, Indians and Tigers all at or around 500, though I’m not a huge Twinkie fan this year.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Apr 21, 2025 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know about "good enough" pitching

They have 2 good starters, 1 guy I’m not sold on (Floyd), and then nothing after that. Their bullpen relies on a closer who can’t strike anybody out, post-prime set-up guys, and DJ Carrasco and Mike MacDougal (how is he still in the majors)? After Buehrle and Danks, there’s not a whole lot to like about their pitching.

by thejd44 on Apr 21, 2025 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"good enough" pitching

I’m not saying Floyd is a stud, or even all that great, but he’s at least league avg. With two above avg or better starters in Buehrle and Danks, that’s a pretty decent top three, relative to the rest of that division. While Colon and Contreras aren’t anything to brag about, they’ve been OK so far. Compared to the other teams in the division (excluding the twins), those two are as good as any other 4 and 5 in the AL Central.
The knock on Jenks for not striking out guys is stupid and shows a strong emphasis on stats and not on actually watching him. He came up as a hard throwing rookie who tried to throw the ball through everyone. Now he pitches and does it very well. He’s lowered his ERA every year. Also, consider that by getting more double plays, he’s being more effective and hurting his chances to get strike outs. The dude still throws in the mid 90’s and has gone from 4 BB per 9 to 2.5.
Thornton is a premier lefty RP who can get out righties. Dotel and Co can be an adventure, but show me a bullpen that isn’t.
Their pitching isn’t great, but it’s better than Cleveland’s, Detroit’s or KC’s.

by joltinjoe on Apr 21, 2025 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eh,

I think it’s pretty clear that KC has the best pitching staff in the Central. Greinke and Meche are arguably the two best pitchers in that division, they filled out the backend of the rotation nicely, and although they unnecessarily blew up their bullpen, I think it will still be adequate.

Their offense though is an entirely different matter.

by joeiz on Apr 21, 2025 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

royals

4. horacio ramirez
5. sidney ponson

“they filled out the back end of the rotation nicely”? Puh-leeze.

by joltinjoe on Apr 21, 2025 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you would have bothered to check...

I can tell you it takes about 10 seconds to find out the Horacio Ramirez is not in the starting rotation. If you think that Colon-Contreras is going to be so much better than a combo of Ponson-Bannister-Hochevar, you are being entirely unrealistic.

by joeiz on Apr 21, 2025 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

huh

both yahoo and mlb.com list ramirez as the no. 5 and ponson as the no. 4
i think i saw bannister was just called up, so that is an improvement. i definitely like the upside of bannister and hochevar over colon and contreras, but keep in mind both the KC guys weren’t very effective last year. Maybe they’ve improved.
but as it stands, I’ll still take the white sox rotation. And regardless of which team’s rotation you like better, there’s no comparing KC’s bullpen to the Sox.
And that’s my point. The Sox pitching (starters and bullpen) are overall better than any other team in the division, excluding possibly the Twins (whose bullpen has really sucked so far this year).

by joltinjoe on Apr 21, 2025 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think the Sox bullpen is even arguably better than KC's

Regardless of whether you are sold on Jenks’s loss of velocity being a product of becoming a finesse pitcher or not, he is not in the same league as Jack Soria. And Joakim has the righteous nickname of the Mexicutioner.

Past that I’d take Cruz over Thornton in those who are likely the best middle relievers on each team (it is probably too early to say that anyone’s roles in the order of succession in either bullpen is set in stone, so I’m going in order of who is best down the depth chart—regardless, Cruz is better than any middle reliever on the Sox roster). Any difference between Tejeda and Dotel is negated by the fact that Dotel is almost guaranteed to take a trip to the DL.

So going down the top 3 in the bullpen the Royals have it, and that’s where it matters most.

Past that, you’re looking at back of the bullpen guys. I really don’t feel like wasting a lot of time talking about guys like Scott Linebrink or Jamey Wright, but the Royals bullpen is widely regarded as one of the best in baseball this year (after the Cruz signing). They have a top five closer, a superior set-up man in Cruz, and Tejeda will be the seventh inning go-to guy soon enough.

by Old Man Duggan on Apr 22, 2025 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hahahah

hahahahaha

by joltinjoe on Apr 23, 2025 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You know, he should be laughed at.

He compared Wright to Linebrink, whom he didn’t want to talk about. Linebrink is one of the better relievers the White Sox have, better than Dotel most often. And then he spewed about Cruz being “superior” to Thornton when Thornton was better just last year in 15 more innings. And the have KYLE FARNSWORTH whom they use frequently enough to make the whole bullpen awful by himself.

by Daniel Berlyn on Apr 23, 2025 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

I didn’t want to waste my time talking about third- and fourth-rung middle relievers. When Scott Linebrink is “one of the better relievers the White Sox have”, you’ve made my argument for me.

by Old Man Duggan on Apr 24, 2025 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you're mistaken.

by Daniel Berlyn on Apr 25, 2025 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

While I don't much like the White Sox pitching staff

I’ll take Buehrle over Meche any day.

by thejd44 on Apr 21, 2025 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree.

Check out their FIP’s.

by joeiz on Apr 21, 2025 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm all for FIP and all

But Buehrle has been a very good pitcher for nearly a decade without striking people out AND pitching with a bad defense behind him most of that time. He must be doing something right.

by thejd44 on Apr 21, 2025 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And Buehrle's career FIP is better anyway.

by thejd44 on Apr 21, 2025 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure,

but just because Buehrle has had a better career thus far does not mean he will be the better pitcher this year. Meche has improved a lot since leaving Seattle; he has significantly cut his walk rate and upped his K’s. Buehrle’s not bad, but he hasn’t pitched as well as Meche has for the past two seasons now.

by joeiz on Apr 21, 2025 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Liriano Baker Slowey Perkins and Blackburn

disagree.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Apr 21, 2025 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I’ve been saying that, and still people laugh. It isn’t a case of liking the back end … it’s a case that the backend of the white sox rotation is very bleh. Heck, their number 3 starter is more of a 4/5 guy (Floyd). I’ll take it one step further - I think the 1-3 of the Royals is better than anyone in the division, and their backend isn’t that much worse, if at all. I don’t think people realize how solid Meche was last year.

Also, I think the Royals pen arguably is the most talented in the division as well, but that’s certainly more debatable.

by toonsterwu on Apr 24, 2025 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

Sorry, but 2 good starters, 1 average starters, and complete garbage after that isn’t average. It’s a good way to have your starting pitching cost you 40% of your games. And what’s worse is that the White Sox have nobody competent (Richard, maybe) behind the two old guys when it’s proven they can’t really pitch anymore.

No, the knock on Jenks is not stupid. His strikeouts have diminished every year, his velocity is way down, and he’s afraid to use his curveball. I watch him plenty. He gives up a ton of hard outs and he’s constantly living on the edge. Will this be the year he blows up? Maybe not. Of course, he’s about 20 pounds heavier now than he was when he was really good, so he’s already blown up in one way. If you’re saying a guy is a better pitcher because he gets more double plays (because he puts more guys on base), you’re nuts. Jenks tops out at 94-95. That’s not where he normally sits according to the TV displays.

Thornton is very good. Absolutely. So the White Sox have two starters, one middle reliever, a decent #3 and decent closer. I really don’t think that’s “good enough.”

Oh, turns out that MacDougal was DFAd today. Addition by subtraction there.

by thejd44 on Apr 21, 2025 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

jenks

so you’d rather have a guy with a 4.00 era, 1.39 whip and 10.3 k/9 than a guy with a 2.77/2.63 era, a 0.89/1.10 whip and a 7.8/5.5 k/9 as a closer?
I’ll take the more effective guy every time. He is allowing less base runners, wiping more out with double plays and allowing less runs to score. Did I mention he’s also lowered his HR allowed?

by joltinjoe on Apr 21, 2025 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thornton

Thornton is not Wilder than Jenks, that is one thing for sure. Thornton is not WIlder.

by FanBall on Apr 21, 2025 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What do you mean by "more effective"?

And you’re really, really twisting the facts here. You’re making statements that, while technically true, are either irrelevant or lacking key details.

Example: HRs allowed. From 2006-2008, Jenks has gone from .7 to .6 to .4 per 9. Yes, he’s allowing fewer homers now. About 1 per season. Not only is that not statistically significant, it’s also not meaningful enough to say he’s gotten better at not allowing homers. That’s well within the boundaries noise.

Last year his WHIP was higher than in 2007, but less than 2006. And in a small sample this year, he hasn’t been good. He’s not really allowing fewer baserunners now. Just compared to one season.

In 2006, 2.7% of PAs resulted in a GDP, in 2007 it was 1.6%, and in 2008 3.7%. So he’s getting an extra double play in just 1 more PA out of every 100 compared to 2006. Yeah, that’s real telling.

At best, he’s compensated for a loss of velocity/ability to strike people out and has remained a pretty good closer. I’d trust him to save a game tonight or tomorrow, but with each outing that trust diminishes just a little because his best skill is obviously deteriorating.

by thejd44 on Apr 21, 2025 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

jenks

Not sure if anyone has realized but part of the reason for his “loss of velocity” is that he’s throwing a 2-seamer now instead of a 4-seamer.
Also, I realize that using rates/9 vary more w/ relief pitchers, but the fact is he’s been more effective in terms of allowing fewer base runners, fewer runs and fewer home runs in the last two years (with his lower velocity and lower k rater compared to his first full year that everybody loved b/c of his high K total).
Baseball is a game of adjustments and he was adjusted to in his first full year after coming up in a half season and blowing everyone away. He’s become a better pitcher and can still rear back and throw one past a batter if he needs to. But the fact is, he’s more effective now.

by joltinjoe on Apr 21, 2025 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty sure every pitcher on the planet throws a 4-seam fastball

I can’t even fathom why a pitcher wouldn’t throw one.

And I absolutely disproved that he’s “more effective” now. You totally ignored everything I said. Allowing 1 fewer homer per season (when comparing TWO years) or 1 more double play per 100 PA is not proof that he’s better. Would you actually argue that a .290 hitter is a better player than a .289 hitter?

by thejd44 on Apr 22, 2025 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

disproved

so allowing fewer base runners and fewer runs isn’t being more effective?
and, in case you’re unaware, throwing a two seamer gives the ball sink, which is very valuable playing in a launching pad like the Cell.

by joltinjoe on Apr 22, 2025 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, you're ridiculous.

The whole point is that in comparing two seasons (and oddly, you didn’t pick his best season), a 1 home run difference is not significant enough of a change to say he’s a better pitcher. NONE of the numbers you cited prove that. Can somebody please give this guy a remedial course on regression to the mean or something?

Also, I know what a two-seamer does. I never said he didn’t throw it, either. What I did say was that I’ve never heard of a pitcher (maybe a knuckleballer, but I doubt it) NOT throwing a four-seam fastball. And, you know, Bobby Jenks had a higher ground ball percentage in 2006 than he did in ANY OTHER YEAR IN THE MAJORS. So, seriously you condescending clown, what the hell are you talking about?

by thejd44 on Apr 24, 2025 6:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You might want to calm down.

by Daniel Berlyn on Apr 25, 2025 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Delmon Young

…..now there is a good topic of conversation. Is his defense that bad that he is platooning. Are they shopping one of the other OF’s what is going on in that outfield. I thought Delmon’s #‘s were very good for his age minus the HR’s. Am I reading something wrong into him, or it all just bad attitude

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Apr 21, 2025 2:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

His defense really is that bad. A lot of people seem to be really down on Delmon because they expected him to be Gary Sheffield, as far as I can tell for no reason. I’ll be amazed if he’s not the best hitter in that outfield this season (not counting Kubel), but he’s pretty bad in the field, and so is Kubel, so it’s going to be awkward.

Hopefully they’ll figure out how good Cuddyer isn’t before too long, and that will help things along.

by timprov on Apr 21, 2025 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll be happy

if delmon is just better than gomez this year.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Apr 21, 2025 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Delmon Young is the suck

and worse than Jeremy Hermida or Corey Hart - two guys that have flashed brilliance but now are terrible. Walks people, they are important!

by FanBall on Apr 21, 2025 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

can we get a countdown clock

..on an epic Ozzie breakdown,

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Apr 21, 2025 2:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I can't wait...

by demondeaconsbaseball on Apr 21, 2025 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm in!

Ozzie breakdowns are the best. My guess is it will happen when they play the Cubs and the Cubs sweep at the (jail) Cell

by FanBall on Apr 21, 2025 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He already had one aimed at Nick Swisher.

by thejd44 on Apr 21, 2025 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's going to be aimed at Ramirez

….the 26 year old great grandfather, just to get Kenny to bring up Beckham

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Apr 21, 2025 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Porcello has been great

Got to watch his first start. He does a great job throwing strikes, especially for a kid who has not previously played above High-A ball. His curve was also impressive as well. I would imagine with the curve he will be able to punch out more hitters as he gains more big league experience.

Even better the 2nd start (only got to look at pitch f/x though) pounding the bottom of the zone. He did not walk a single hitter in that start. Im also incredibly impressed with his efficiency. Porcello needed just 86 pitches (56 strikes) to get through 7 ip

churchofbaseball.com

by MJMars on Apr 21, 2025 2:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Royals

They will surprise alot and be the Rays of this year. They may not make it to the WS but with the division up for grabs, I can see them pulling this one out.

Oh and Zach Greinke is a stud!!!!!

by Summa Slugga on Apr 21, 2025 2:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cleveland

Despite the results, the Indians were the best team in the division last year, and I don’t see any reason why they shouldn’t be again.

by timprov on Apr 21, 2025 3:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pavano in the three spot

…I’m living in Ohio and even though I’m a huge O’s fan I have some love for the tribe, but you can’t dismiss that rotation.

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Apr 21, 2025 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Picked the Royals at the beginning of the year

and I’ll stick with it … but I also thought any of the five teams could win it and I wouldn’t be all that shocked.

by toonsterwu on Apr 21, 2025 4:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

KC because I'm a Royals fan.

Sound analysis is the name of the game.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Apr 21, 2025 4:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Twins

Their rotation hasn’t been living up to expectations but they’re starting to come around. Blackburn and Slowey had solid starts this weekend and Perkins has been a pleasant surprise. We all know Liriano and Baker will come around as long as injury doesn’t hit them.

That plus the fact that they’ve been without Mauer and he will improve the club on offense and defense dramatically.

They admittedly have a weak bullpen but if history proves itself correct the Twins will pull someone from the minors who will shore up their main weakness (Mijares, Slama, Delaney).

If not the Twins then I have to go with Cleveland, they were so good at the end of 08 and they’ll come around quicker this year than last. The White Sox are just getting too dang old, Detroit has to show me something before I think they can return to 07 form and the Royals are supposed to be better every year, I’ll believe it when I see it. I know KC has been getting better but until they are in the race come fall I can’t give them any credit.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Apr 21, 2025 5:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

I think their pitching is too good not to come around. Their speed and defense have to make up for their lack of offense.

by unspider on Apr 21, 2025 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure the Twins defense is that good

They have some good defensive players, but they’re not the Twins of a few years ago.

by thejd44 on Apr 22, 2025 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd have agreed last year but not this year

The main X factor is Crede at 3B. With him and Punto on the left side they have much better defense than last year when it was a hodgepodge of Punto, noodle arm Everett, Busher, Harris, Tolbert.

The Crede upgrade is already paying defensive dividends and on the days they have Span and Gomez in the outfield which has been quite often their outfield defense is great. Last year it started with Gomez, Cuddy, and Young. Cuddy and Young have great arms but other than that they’re mediocre to bad defensively. Twins defense is getting back where it used to be.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Apr 22, 2025 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"noodle arm Everett"??

He of the +11.2 UZR/150.

Adam Everett is a flawed baseball player… but the problem isnt on the defensive side.

by alskor on Apr 22, 2025 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Everett was largely ineffective last season

I know a lot of Twins fans and they complained ceaselessly about his defense not being up to snuff last season.

by Old Man Duggan on Apr 22, 2025 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

...and theyre wrong.

He wasnt bad, though he was a good bit off his normal, superhuman pace.

B/c he’s such a crappy hitter that kind of UZR no longer justifies keeping his crappy, crappy bat in the order, but the fact remains he wasnt bad on defense in 2008. Crappy.

by alskor on Apr 22, 2025 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've watched Crede a lot

And I feel confident in saying that the metrics that rate him as merely above average are the right ones. The guy has very little lateral range, and balls the really good 3Bs get to easily, he falls down to grab. The guy doesn’t make many errors, and he’s very good at coming in on balls, but there’s probably 10 3Bs who, when healthy, I’d take over him in a heartbeat. Here in Chicago, Joe Crede might be the most overrated baseball player this city has ever seen.

by thejd44 on Apr 24, 2025 6:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Greinke?

Obviously Glen Perkins is gonna win the cy young.

by Justin & Joe on Apr 21, 2025 6:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tigers will do much better than the %'s here say

I’m thinking their starting 5 will be very good now. Porcello looked great his last start…he’s here to stay. Bonderman will be back within a month. If not Miner will be fine in the 5 spot.

Zumaya is back within a week or so. The bullpen will be much improved then.

I think they are going to give the White Sox a run for the Central title. I think it’ll be between those two teams.

by billybgame on Apr 21, 2025 8:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The White Sox

Simply the best in the division top to bottom.

I don’t get the Royals love. They might be able to be an average team, but they’re not THAT good and are being way overrated by a ton of people.

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Apr 22, 2025 12:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I can tell you who won't win

Cleveland and Detroit just don’t have the pitching - no shot -
The Royals have the best pitching in the division but the offense is going to fall flat-Gordon out hurts - the real problem with KC is Trey Hillman cannot get it done-waaaay by the book and I mean the old school book- Hillman loses 5-6 games by himself
Twins are the Twins-not sure they can get enough together feels like a close but no cigar team
White Sox have a good enough offense and 3 solid startes and the pen is decent even if jenks doesn’t get it done-
winner is under 90 wins

by ribman on Apr 22, 2025 12:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs