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Alex Gordon Community Projection

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We had just 18 entries in the Alex Gordon Community Projection. . .interest in these seems to be waning. We'll still do a few more.


The community projection comes to:
150 games, 561 at-bats, 156 hits, .277/.359/.482 (OBP based on walks only), 37 doubles, 2 triples, 24 homers, 86 RBI, 84 runs, 71 walks, 119 strikeouts, 11/14 SB/CS.

That seems like reasonable growth from what he's done his first two seasons. Ron Shandler has Gordon at .270/.345/.488 with 23 homers in 503 at-bats. Bill James, usually on the optimistic side, has similar numbers with a .273/.358/.467 mark, with 20 homers but 40 doubles in 535 at-bats. Weighted Mean PECOTA is .257/.341/.456 with 22 homers in 628 at-bats, a bit more pessimistic than Shandler, James or the Community.


His Top 12 PECOTA comps are Pat Burrell, Eric Chavez, Troy Glaus, Darrell Evans, Bob Horner, Gary Gaetti, Stephen Drew, Travis Lee, Darnell Coles, Mark Teixeira, Mo Vaughn, and Howard Johnson. Tim Wallach and Robin Ventura also show up on his PECOTA list at 15 and 16.

Sim Scores bring up some of the same names: Joy Foy, Howard Johnson, Tim Wallach, Gary Gaetti, Darnell Coles, Dave Henderson, Mark Teahen, Doug Rader, Willie Jones, and Steve Garvey are his top ten. Absent a catastrophic injury, I can't see Gordon being done by age 28 as Foy was, but the other comps make some sense.

I find it interesting that Wallach and Gaetti show up on both lists. While Gordon may not develop into the George Brett clone that Royals fans were hoping for, there isn't anything wrong with a Chavez/Glaus/Evans/Gaetti/Wallach type outcome.

Gordon had a strong 2008 second half and I think he has a reasonable chance to break out big this year, exceeding what the projection systems are showing.  If he doesn't and maintains his current level of performance instead, he should still have a long and productive career in line with the various comps.