Failed Prospect: Hee Seop Choi

by John Sickels on Feb 21, 2026 3:35 PM EST in News

First, the background.

20-year-old Hee Seop Choi was signed by the Chicago Cubs as a free agent in May, 1999. Sent directly to full-season baseball, he was a monster in his first look at pro pitching, hitting .321/.422/.610 in 79 games for Lansing in the Midwest League. That includes 18 homers in those 79 games, 70 RBI, 50 walks and 68 strikeouts against 290 at-bats. His OPS+ came out at a stupendously good +40 percent. Scouts were full of praise for his rapid adjustment to North America, and I gave him a Grade A- in the 2000 book.

Choi began 2000 with Daytona in the Florida State League, hitting .296/.369/.533 in 96 games. Promoted to Double-A in late July, he was even more impressive at West Tennessee with a .303/.419/.623 mark, having no problems at all adjusting to more advanced pitching. His OPS in Double-A was +47 percent. He also crushed the Arizona Fall League. Scouts even gave him positive reviews for his defense at first base. I gave him a straight Grade A in the 2001 book.

2001 was a bad year. Limited to just 77 games in Triple-A by a hand injury, he hit just .229/.313/.417. He still drew walks and kept his strikeout rate non-horrible for a young power hitter, though it was evident from watching him play that the hand injury inhibited his hitting. I reduced his rating to Grade B+, though I expected that once his hand healed he would be fine.

Choi returned to health in 2002 and had a strong season in Triple-A, hitting .287/.406/.525 with 28 homers and 95 walks, 119 strikeouts in 478 at-bats. He got into 24 games for the Cubs, hitting .180 but knocking two homers and drawing 7 walks against 15 strikeouts in 50 at-bats. I moved him back up to Grade A in the 2003 book. It was at this time that I first started hearing concerns about his ability to handle inside pitches, based on his major league exposure. I didn't think it was going to be a major problem, since I personally saw him handle inside pitches without difficulty in Triple-A. I figured he just needed some time to adjust.

The rest of the Choi story has been hashed out in different threads over the last few weeks. He hit just .218/.350/.421 for the Cubs in 80 games of sporadic playing time in 2003, getting injured, losing playing time to Eric Karros, then getting traded to Florida. He hit .270/.388/.495 for the Marlins in 95 games, which came out to a +132 OPS, which is obviously very, very good. But they shipped him off to the Dodgers, where he hit just .161 in 31 games in '04. In '05 the Dodgers used him in a platoon role and he hit .253/.336/.453, a +107 OPS, but he got caught up in political front office battles apparently. And now he's back home in Korea.

There is lots to consider here. Choi's final major league line is .240/.349/.437, +106 OPS, in 915 at-bats, obviously not anything close to what I anticipated. Choi detractors point to his struggles in Chicago and Los Angeles as proof that he was never very good. Choi supporters point to the injuries, the sporadic playing time, and the fact that he hit great for the Marlins in '04 (you can't spin a +132 OPS in 95 games as something bad). The pattern I see is that people who doubt Choi ignore the good points and people who like Choi ignore the bad points. It all counts.

I did not get to see Choi play in the majors as often as your average Cubs, Marlins, or Dodgers fan. The mental image I have of him remains the guy I saw in the minors, the guy who killed fastballs (including inside fastballs) and handled breaking stuff just fine, and who was a reasonably good defensive first baseman. Looking back on it, I don't regret the ratings I gave him. They turned out to be wrong, but based on the information I had at the time, the statistics, the scouting reports, and the personal observations, I have no regrets.

That said, even if Choi had stayed in the US and gotten more chances, based on what we know now, he would not have been the slugging superstar I expected. He would instead have panned out as a useful slugging bat, at worst a Sam Horn, in the middle a Ken Phelps, at best a Cecil Fielder. In short, I think that Choi did get jerked around and wasn't handled well, and that under different circumstances he would still be playing in the majors right now, but I also think he legitimately wasn't as good as expected. Nevertheless, worse players have had long careers.

Lessons Learned:

It's hard to be a superstar slugger. Sam Horns are a lot more common than Mo Vaughns or Jason Giambis.
The more dimensions to a player's skill base, the better.
Organizational context is important

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Wonderful writeup

and a wonderful segment overall John. Thanks for giving us all this great content

I am just now reaching the age of Dusty Baker prospectdum. maybe i should give Krivsky a call

by Terry Ryan Jr on Feb 21, 2026 3:57 PM EST reply actions

Wood

His horrific collision with Kerry Wood that cost him significant time was my biggest memory of Choi.

The only other thing is that he was one of those "stathead's dreams" because of the walks.

by SethSpeaks on Feb 21, 2026 4:03 PM EST reply actions

Bill Plaschke

I put full blame for his demise on Bill Plaschke who consistently ripped Choi as indicative of DePodesta's regime. His constant barrage due to his bizarre love affair with Paul Lo Duca put pressure on Tracy to not play him. This is a case where I believe media pressure truly influenced a player's career

Hmm however did that Lo Duca, Mota & Encarnacion for Choi and Brad Penny trade turn out anyway?

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Feb 21, 2026 4:14 PM EST reply actions

Tracy

Tracy didn't bow to the Press's pressure, he had his own little feud with DePodesta... an act he took on the road with him in Pitt where he undercut the GM who hired him at every turn (Of course Littlefield had it coming)

by Johnny Ruin on Feb 21, 2026 4:20 PM EST up reply actions

Cust and Pena

For awhile Choi, Cust and Pena were used as argument points for the pro scout side of the so called stats v scouts debate.

Pena and Choi were very similar hitters in teh minors and pre 2007, were very similar hitters (rate wise- if you exclude Choi's pinch-hitting- they were teh same hitter)- although Pena received many more at bats.

Cust was also a very similar hitter in the minors to both men (and a much worse fielder than either).

Pena now has 2500+ PAs, a shiny new contract and will likely be a regular for years to come.
Cust's future is less certain, but with an OPS+ of .247/.389/.473/130 in 676 MLB PAs, playing for a team that appreciates his skill set, he will at least get every opportunity in 2008.

Choi is probably trying to get a job in Japan I suppose...

Another part of Choi's problem is esthetics- no baseball player LOOKS worse than a slow three true outcomes hitter in a slump.

by Johnny Ruin on Feb 21, 2026 4:19 PM EST reply actions

Cust

I think for the most part, Cust's main issues were two-fold:

The D Backs royally screwed with him... not liking the walks enough, and wanting more aggression in 2000-01... then when he got dumped on the Rockies, he couldn't get back on track. As an extremely poor fielder at 1B or the OF corners, he was also a tough fit for the NL teams that controlled him early on.
Finally getting moved to the DH-able AL, he makes his first mark in the big leagues falling down trying to score... which was remarked by a number of commentators as perhaps some of the worst baserunning since Fred Merkle. Baltimore made him look foolish, and he didn't recover for awhile.

I think he's finally where we knew he belonged all along. He's a pure Billy Ball player, and he'll have plenty of opportunity - until he's due for arbitration - and he'll be shipped to someone willing to pay.

If it wasn't for disappointments, I wouldn't have any appointments.

by kings33 on Feb 21, 2026 4:49 PM EST up reply actions

Replace "arbitration"

with "free agency" and your last sentence would actually be sensible instead of asinine.

by PaulThomas on Feb 21, 2026 8:03 PM EST up reply actions

your sentence

is the only asinine one I read. Billy often goes through players like Cust and everyone he has sent out this offseason have been players not approaching free-agency but players with arbitration (or contracts signed in lieu of arb, like Swisher and Haren) contracts that Beane shipped out.

I'll give you 5 bucks if Cust is an A in 2010.

by nms on Feb 21, 2026 8:17 PM EST up reply actions

actually

Pena was a better MLB hitter than Choi

by nms on Feb 21, 2026 7:55 PM EST up reply actions

hit the ball, catch the ball, throw the ball

Sam Horn, Cust, Choi, the one thing they had in common was that they were god awful defensive players. A bad defensive player can give up more than he can hit. The only full time DHs are extraordinary hitters who at one time played a position. Not being able to play defense is a huge hinderance.

by LindInMoskva on Feb 21, 2026 9:10 PM EST up reply actions

defense

It is categorically false to say that Choi was anything like as bad as Jack Cust in the field. No, he wasn't a particularly good fielder, but he wasn't any worse than any of a half-dozen or more guys who play the position regularly in the major leagues.

A bad defensive player can give up more than he can hit.

I'm skeptical of this idea, especially for first basemen. Defense is only a fraction of preventing runs, while hitting is pretty much what there is to scoring them. I'm not saying necessarily that Choi hit well enough to make up for below-average defense, because I haven't run the numbers and I distrust defensive numbers anyway. But there's no way that a bad defensive player can give up nearly what a good offensive player can add.

Where Anne hath a will, Anne Hathaway.

by woodstein52 on Feb 22, 2026 2:10 AM EST up reply actions

think of it this way

A first baseman needs to hit at a certain level, whether you believe that it is .800 OPS or.750 OPS or a .725 OPS or whatever metric you are going to use or you can find a run of the mill AAA player to replace him. If a player makes an extra misqueue every other game, misses a play that a major leaguer should make, then that is 80 extra misqueues a season which when compared to 550 at bats is giving back .290 points in ops. When you are giving back .200 points or .300 points in OPS and you are a marginal offensive player to begin with, you are giving up more on defense than what you are hitting a above the run of the mill AAA player.

You see this all the time when you watch minor league ball. Some guy, call him Brad Eldred or Sam Horn or Jack Cust or whomever, is smacking around AAA, not incredibly well but he is hitting better than the competition and you wonder why he isn't getting a shot. And then with 9 innings he makes 3 misplays. That is why he isn't playing, he just can't hit enough above that offensive line that everyone can hit to make up for everything he gives back.

Jack Cust was awful in the field, Sam Horn, Brad Eldred were awful. It doesn't matter so much if Matt LaPorta hits .900 OPS or .950 OPS but if he gives back .300 or .100. When I watched Choi, he was pretty bad in the field but it wasn't a big sample size. Maybe he wasn't as awful as Cust, but his offense was suspect and he at least had a bad defense reputation.

Defense is hard to measure, especially if you are trying to decide if Betancourt or Everett is better at ss. But when you watch these Ken Phelps all stars actually try to field a position you just know that you are looking at something bad. Remember these aren't major league players, these are guys that are so bad defensively that they can't play in the majors.

by LindInMoskva on Feb 22, 2026 6:20 AM EST up reply actions

awful as Cust

"Maybe he wasn't as awful as Cust, but his offense was suspect and he at least had a bad defense reputation."
No Choi's defensive rep was GOOD until he came to LALA Land.
Cust's defensive rep was always, with justification, awful.

Also, having seen both Phillips and Choi play first, and seen LA fans and media say that Choi was worse, I do not trust ANYTHING a LALA Land fan or writer has to say about Choi

by Johnny Ruin on Feb 22, 2026 11:10 AM EST up reply actions

Defense...

"A bad defensive player can give up more than he can hit."

There will always be jobs for players that can let in one run but drive in two.

by JayhawkTom on Feb 22, 2026 12:48 PM EST up reply actions

but that isn't the comparison

Everyone looks at their favorite minor leaguer in terms of offense. We aren't looking at guys like Travis Hafner or David Ortiz. These are marginal offensive guys, guys that may be able to hit .050 OPS better than somebody playing in the major leagues but are not given a chance because their horrible defense gives back .100 points.

Prospect analysis without any regards to defense tends to lead to a conclusion that there are many guys out there that could hit enough to play in the majors but are never given a chance. Instead of looking at defense the conclusion is that MLB teams are just not very bright. A big reason why position prospects fizzle or are at least delayed is that they can't field a position.

by LindInMoskva on Feb 22, 2026 2:27 PM EST up reply actions

Disagree

Choi's defense in Chicago was actually pretty good.

by Yakker on Feb 22, 2026 6:06 PM EST up reply actions

lessons learned?

I'm not sure I learned a lesson here. It sounds like there were no red flags--no early indications that he was going to fail and no injuries to explain why he did. Is there a clue here that was missed?

I guess it is just a cautionary tale...there is no such thing as a sure thing.

by DenverBears on Feb 21, 2026 4:20 PM EST reply actions

lesson learned

is there are no sure things-

who was the surest prospect of the last 20 years?

Mark Prior- annointed the best college pitcher of all time-
couldn't fail
arrived upon the MLB "fully formed" as a "number 1" pitcher according to one publication.

Had perfect mechanics would be an elite pitcher for a LONG time

Look how that turned out in the end.

by Johnny Ruin on Feb 21, 2026 4:23 PM EST up reply actions

That "perfect mechanics" thing

. . . is a myth.

(Sorry for the double post.)

Where Anne hath a will, Anne Hathaway.

by woodstein52 on Feb 22, 2026 2:12 AM EST up reply actions

And now I see

. . . that there wasn't one.

Where Anne hath a will, Anne Hathaway.

by woodstein52 on Feb 22, 2026 2:12 AM EST up reply actions

flag

The only red flags were the scouting reports based on his early major league trial that he was having trouble with inside pitches. Again, I saw him hit a lot in Triple-A and I never saw any indication that it was a big problem. . .he did just fine against inside stuff there.

by John Sickels on Feb 21, 2026 4:23 PM EST up reply actions

Can we throw...

Roberto Petagine into this group too? Or were his circumstances different?

If it wasn't for disappointments, I wouldn't have any appointments.

by kings33 on Feb 21, 2026 4:41 PM EST reply actions

which group?

Petagine is hard to find a comp for- his minor league and Japan league numbers are better than any other "failed" prospect- except maybe Alex Cabrera.

Petagine's career high in MLB at bats for one year was 124- he has 366 spread out over 7 seasons

Cabrera got all of 87 MLB PAs (and slugged .500)

I can't "prove" this, but I don't think Petagine was a "failed" prospect I think the 3 teams that had him as a prospect were the ones who failed- he would ahve been a very good MLB hitter if simply stuck in a lineup and allowed to hit. Basically Bobby Abreu without the SBs- ironically 2 years after deciding that Petagine couldn't play the Astros thought so highly of his statistical clone Abreu that they let him go in the Rule 5 draft,

Abreu- whose first 200 MLB PAs were a dead ringer for Petagine's first 200, was thereupon given an everyday MLB job and never looked back.

Petagine is an extreme case though...

by Johnny Ruin on Feb 21, 2026 4:55 PM EST reply actions

my memory as an avid Cubs fan

is that when he returned from his freak accident at Wrigley against NYY, he was absolutely clueless at the plate. He was playing well prior to the injury and it messed him up big-time in Chicago. Didn't seem too mentally tough.

2003 1st Half .239 .379 .465 (159 ab)
2003 2nd Half .140 .229 .256 (43 ab)

by So Cal Bob on Feb 21, 2026 5:24 PM EST reply actions

The lesson was

That far too many GM's and scouts fall in love with guys who "look" like they should be great players. Where a less projectable guy has a hard time getting an extended opportunity to establish himself.

by aaronb on Feb 21, 2026 5:25 PM EST reply actions

Somethings that I remember about Choi

Extraordinarily streaky: Suffered from long stretches with a BA well under the Mendoza line, could also go gonzo and take over a single series (hit 6 homers over the course of 17 AB's against the Twins during an interleague series)

Looked clumsy: The only thing I remember seeing him do that looked natural to him was swinging a bat. While he played passable 1b it looked as if he was about to throw a disc in his back several times a game. Waddled more than ran.

Wasn't able to defend himself: When Plaschke ripped Choi and used him as the anti-DePo whipping boy Choi couldn't speak up on his own behalf. I wonder about guys who can't really defend themselves because of language issues.

I am just now reaching the age of Dusty Baker prospectdum. maybe i should give Krivsky a call

by Terry Ryan Jr on Feb 21, 2026 5:38 PM EST reply actions

IIRC

A few of those homers came off Terry Mulholland. So they shouldn't count.

by BenB on Feb 21, 2026 5:58 PM EST up reply actions

that was the thing about Choi

he was a PHENOMENAL fantasy player -- if your league allowed day-to-day changes, that is. it was COMPLETELY predictable who he could and couldn't hit, and that Twins series (which marks the highlight of his Dodgers career, btw) was HUGELY prosperous for my fantasy team, because it was really obvious ahead of time that Mays, Mullholland, Silva and Radke (who he hit the last three homers against) were all great matchups for Choi. all of them are flyball pitchers who didn't throw too hard, and weren't wild. none had good pitches to jam Choi, nor could any of them go up the ladder with a four-seamer. this made them pure meat for Choi.

of course, the flip side was that there was a huge group of pitchers against whom Choi was literally useless.

if he'd been managed better, i think he would have been useful to play against the "right" pitchers -- righthanders without devastating breaking stuff nor (especially) good cutters who (most importantly) weren't able to hit 93 mph regularly. however, there's limited space on rosters to use a first baseman like that. all in all, he should have been playing somewhere....but it wouldn't have been all that great if he were playing for your team.

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 21, 2026 6:17 PM EST up reply actions

Braves

I think if he has a strong season in Korea and Teixeira is not re-signed, the Braves may look to give him a chance at the job next year since there is really no one in the organization with the capability to take the job.

Check out MVN.com/mlb-braves for the best Braves coverage

by was385 on Feb 21, 2026 6:05 PM EST reply actions

Organizational Context

i think this is one of the most underrated aspects in prospecting. i dont have any well thought out ideas about the topic but i wonder what would have happened if a guy like Craig Hansen ended up with the Yankees

by nyybaseball99 on Feb 21, 2026 11:11 PM EST reply actions

example

i bring up hansen and the yanks (obviously because there was chatter that they'd take him) because as of lately, atleast, it seems the yankees are developing pitchers as well as any organization in baseball

by nyybaseball99 on Feb 21, 2026 11:14 PM EST up reply actions

That's with RHP starters though

and they arguably were still rushing players in 2005.

Todd Frazier for President

by FrazierFan on Feb 21, 2026 11:25 PM EST up reply actions

Choi

I remember the excitement for Choi at Dodger games. The chants, "HEE! SEOP! CHOI! HEE! SEOP! CHOI!" People stomping their feet and clapping their hands. Korean families stood for every at bat....I think he was handled bad and got mixed up in political nonsense.

by LipstickOnDipstick on Feb 22, 2026 12:38 AM EST reply actions

Choi!

Some random Choi thoughts:

This guy was (is?) a great athlete.
Being a long-time SOM player and Cubs fan, I was pretty miffed when the Cubs gave him up for D-Lee, for the reasons of contract, and also for the loss of a lefty batter who drew walks. I thought they had bigger fish to fry (no pun intended) than their 1b situation with Choi.
After 2005, I saw virtually no difference between he and Carlos Pena... I still wonder if he'd have been able to have a huge year like Carlos' 2007 given a full chance.
Best of luck, Hee Seop... you were fun to watch, and brought Derrek Lee to Chicago, so thank you.

by BobbyMac on Feb 22, 2026 2:56 AM EST reply actions

Hee Seop Choi translates to:

Can't Hit Changeup in English. I saw him many times with the Marlins and he could crush a fastball, but couldn't hit the off speed stuff. I think once pitchers figured that out, his career was over.

by Looneyt0on on Feb 22, 2026 3:20 PM EST reply actions