Thinking About Andrew Brackman
His place in the draft is very unclear at this point, and he's going through a "dead arm" period right now according to Baseball America. I know for a fact that many of the more stat-oriented teams are wary of him due to his OK but not great numbers for NC State this year. He went 6-4, 3.81 in 78 innings with a 74/37 K/BB and 78 hits allowed. . .his batting average against was .264 against a team average of .251. His strikeout rate was above average for context but not spectacular. Overall, the results are OK but they don't match the glowing scouting reports. For a guy who can hit 97 MPH and flashes an above average breaking ball, his numbers are not what you'd expect.
Now, how big of a deal is that?
College statistics are somewhat predictive if properly interpreted, but even at the Div I level against good competition they have to be taken with grains of salt....players in the 20-22 cohort are still young enough to develop in unexpected ways. especially a relatively raw pitcher like Brackman. His mechanics are fairly clean for such a tall pitcher who lacks experience, but his release point on his breaking ball is a problem and he sometimes doesn't command it well. The fact that he's a fine overall athlete helps, but I still have concerns about his durability.
I'll be honest and say that my intuition about him is somewhat negative, and I'd rate him towards the back end of the first round rather than at the front end. His upside is very, very high...but I think the risk is pretty high, too.
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