This one is risky, given the extremely high expectations for Matsuzaka. But keep in mind that he's already thrown 1403 innings in Japan. Adding in his Japanese numbers, this would put him with 3522 innings and 256 wins....this is one hell of a career.
Disclaimer: The Crystal Ball is an "educated opinion"...not to be taken TOO seriously and mostly for fun. I do put quite a bit of work into them, looking at similar players and trying to figure out how the guy in question might develop. Is there a fancy computer program? No. Do I just slop numbers on the page? No. It is less than a projection/prediction but more than just guesswork. The point is to stimulate discussion about the player.