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2003 to 2006

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Of the high school players who went in the first round in 2003, which ones, if they had gone to college, would have been first rounders in 2006, assuming that their college careers followed a similar path to their pro careers?

Delmon Young, Devil Rays, 1st overall (University of Arizona)
FIRST ROUNDER?: Absolutely, and very likely would have been the first player picked in the draft again. He would have put up monstrous numbers in college.

Chris Lubanski, Royals, 5th overall (Florida State University)
FIRST ROUNDER?: Probably in the middle of the round, I'd say, assuming that his college career would have been promising-but-erratic as his minor league career has been.

Ryan Harvey, Cubs, 6th overall (University of Florida)
FIRST ROUNDER?: He's hitting just .204/.250/.335 this year in the Florida State League. Assuming a similarly disappointing junior year, something like .280/.330/.415 at the college level, he would likely rank as a middle round pick due to his tools. Interestingly, several other University of Florida players this year had disappointing junior campaigns.

John Danks, Rangers, 9th overall (University of Texas)
FIRST ROUNDER?: Not sure. His arm strength is first-class, but his pro track record is somewhat erratic. This year he is 4-4, 4.55 in Double-A, although his 72/18 K/BB in 57 innings is very impressive. I think he'd definitely be a first rounder but would that be early in the round or late?

Ian Stewart, Rockies, 10th overall (Southern Cal)
FIRST ROUNDER?: His 2004 season would have been a tremendous freshman year, and his '05 season would be a strong sophomore follow up. But he's been just mediocre this year in Double-A. How much would a mediocre junior year have hurt his stock? My guess is that he'd be a late first rounder.

Lastings Milledge, Mets, 12th overall (University of South Carolina)
FIRST ROUNDER?: Certainly. Top five probably given what he has done this year.

Jeff Allison, Marlins, 16th overall (University of Arizona)
FIRST ROUNDER?: No way, assuming that his drug problems cropped up on college. On the other hand, perhaps going to college would have been good for him, giving him more time to mature emotionally and maybe avoid the drugs?

Matt Moses, Twins, 21st overall (Clemson)
FIRST ROUNDER?: His freshman year would be ruined by injuries as his '04 season was, but he did OK last year and showed enough pop this year to get into the first round I imagine.

Brandon Wood, Angels, 23rd overall (University of Texas)
FIRST ROUNDER?: Uh, yeah, I think so, probably the first or second pick depending on if Delmon and Lastings are in the class. What would his California League stats last year look like when translated into a college context?

Chad Billingsley, Dodgers, 24th overall (University of South Carolina)
FIRST ROUNDER?: Certainly. Another guy who would be in the first few picks, probably ahead of any of the college pitchers who were actually available. Holding your own in Las Vegas=utterly dominating for South Carolina.

Eric Duncan, Yankees, 27th overall (Louisiana State University)
FIRST ROUNDER?: I doubt it, assuming his junior year would be as weak as his 2006 has been so far. His scouting reputation and adequate performance in '04 and '05 would probably get him picked in the third or fourth round I imagine.

Daric Barton, Cardinals, 28th overall (Cal State Fullerton)
FIRST ROUNDER?: Second round perhaps, given his defensive limitations and not-that-great hitting this year.

Where do you think these guys would slot?