I get questions occasionally about how seriously to take these Crystal Balls. Remember, these are intended as a starting point for discussion. I put some time into them and try to make them at least semi-realistic, based on what we know about the player in question at the time. Am I seriously projecting that Papelbon will have a 126-85 record with a 3.44 career ERA? Not really. But I do think that his career has a fair chance to look something like what we see above.