2007 Houston Astros Prospects

by John Sickels on Dec 16, 2025 11:00 AM EST in News

Hunter Pence, OF, Grade A- (I see nothing not to like)
Troy Patton, LHP, Grade B+ (One of the better southpaw prospects in the game)
Matt Albers, RHP, B+ (made huge progress last year but control still an issue)
Jimmy Barthmaier, RHP, B+ (can't decide between B and B+ here)
J.R. Towles, C, B (He looks good to me, good glove, strong bat)
Max Sapp, C, B (I don't want to overreact to poor NY-P numbers given his youth. Might downgrade to B-)
Juan Gutierrez, RHP, B- (live arm, needs to sustain command)
Paul Estrada, RHP, B- (overlooked prospect with a live arm)
Sergio Perez, RHP, B- (one of my favorites from the 2006 draft)
Felipe Paulino, RHP, C+ (outstanding arm but still learning how to pitch)
Lincoln Holdzkom, RHP, C+ (rule 5 guy from the Cubs)
Chris Sampson, RHP, C+ (Should be a useful control pitcher, old for a prospect)
Chad Reineke, RHP, C+ (another guy who can be a good utility pitcher)
Brian Bugosevic, LHP, C+ (2005 hot draft pick has injury concerns)
Jordan Parraz, OF, C+ (can he hit above the NY-P?)
Bud Norris, RHP, C+ (live arm from '06 draft)
Brooks Conrad, 2B, C (old for a prospect but he does a lot of things right)
Eli Iorg, OF, C (great tools, but skills are sketchy)
Drew Sutton, 2B, C (similar to Conrad but two levels behind him)
Chance Douglass, RHP, C (another guy who can be a decent utility pitcher)

Others of Note: Josh Anderson, OF; Raymar Diaz, RHP; Thomas Fairchild, RHP; Sam Gervacio, RHP; Hector Gimenez, C; Casey Hudspeth, RHP; Charlton Jimerson, OF; Chris Johnson, 3B; Tommy Manzella, SS; Nick Moresi, OF; Chris Salamida, LHP; Sergio Severino, LHP.

The Astros in One Sentence: This system has some quality guys at the top, and there is a decent group of potential spare parts, but some of the college bats expected to bring depth have disappointed lately.

Jason Hirsh would have ranked number two before his trade to Colorado. Again, there isn't a lot to distinguish the C/C+ guys, and some of those grades are fluid and may be changed.

ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. If you hate a grade, feel free to make a case for me to change it, though remember that cases phrased respectfully using logic and facts are more likely to be viewed positively than those featuring insults and invective.

There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+/C range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.

And, as always, there is the helpful reminder to Buy My Book, which will lay out reports for all these guys (and more) in detail.

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Comments

Love that Pence rating

He is the real deal.

Often underrated, too...

by ISC on Dec 16, 2025 11:05 AM EST reply actions

Wow, he must really dislike Carlos Gonzalez

I actually like Pence, and have him on my fantasy team, but I'm really surprised that he has Carlos Gonzalez at a B+ and Pence and his spastic swing as an A-

by Galt on Dec 16, 2025 12:25 PM EST up reply actions

sampson is a sinkerballer, not a control artist

i suppose that its not a huge difference, but he had a 3:1 go:fo ratio in AAA.

it's a bad strategy to base your lineup on the relative beauty of a man's outs rather than the rate at which he makes them.

by overlord on Dec 16, 2025 11:15 AM EST reply actions

age

he just started pitching in '03, 4 years after he got drafted as a shortstop

by jrose643 on Dec 16, 2025 1:08 PM EST up reply actions

Stros

The last two years I've been surprised at the grades of the Astros pitching prospects. Hirsh and Patton turned out to be right on last year, but I'm not sure about Albers and Barthmaier.

I like Albers, but is he really even close to being in Felix Pie's league?

Barthmaier is 22 in A+, didn't get a K per inning, and walks a guy nearly every other inning. I don't know about a B+ for him.

by limozeen on Dec 16, 2025 12:18 PM EST reply actions

horrible 05 and 06 draft classes

yes, almost all of the college hitters have disappointed. Sergio is the only top 5 pick in the last 2 years not to bust, which is amazing in itself.

The lack of potential hitters in the Astros system is comical.

There is zero depth, but as far as throwing out possible MLB players: McLemore could be a lefty rliever, Peguero can relieve, and Estrada was given a B- and if that is what potential closers get than it is fine.

All in all a horrible year

"You hear a lot of things... because there are a lot of people talking." (Shamus original)

by Shamus on Dec 16, 2025 1:01 PM EST reply actions

Shamus

what do you see the odds of the Stros going into the year with just one lefty in the pen (Miller)? Wandy is consistently going to give you a 5.6 ERA, so he's a roster waste. McLemore? sure ended the AFL nicely with his 8K, 3 IP performance

by jrose643 on Dec 16, 2025 1:10 PM EST up reply actions

depends on lidge

Unless McLemore has a great Ryan camp and ST and Albers is sent to AAA I don't see him as a LRP at the start of next year. But if his arm is at 100% he has a shot for sure.

I think he is as ready as he will ever be to pitch.

"You hear a lot of things... because there are a lot of people talking." (Shamus original)

by Shamus on Dec 16, 2025 1:31 PM EST up reply actions

Starting 5

Oswalt
Jennings
Williams

are the last 2 pretty much up for grabs amongst Wandy (yikes), Nieve, Sampson, Albers, Zeke (ughh)?

And how much longer is Ausmus gonna start??

by jrose643 on Dec 16, 2025 1:50 PM EST reply actions

You can bet

That Zeke will not pitch again. And unless Nieve is really injured he and Sampson will get the call if Lidge is not traded for a starter. I have your starters and Nieve with Sampson to fill the rotation. It is stupid to think you have to rotate a Lefty in your starters because you need one, even though he is worse than a righty.

Also, I was very disappointed in Sampsons grade. I did a diary about a week ago about Sampson and his community grade was between a B and B+. For god's sake he was the 2nd best pitcher in the PCL behind HIRSH who is a clear A-.

"You hear a lot of things... because there are a lot of people talking." (Shamus original)

by Shamus on Dec 16, 2025 11:35 PM EST up reply actions

Sampson's rating

It's hard for me to be critical without a clear understanding of what "rating prospects" actually is. I think this whole process needs better definition. Are we trying to:

simply rank/rate players based on some unspecified combination of potential and demonstrated ability, giving bonus points to guys that have shown absolutely nothing, yet some believe they have potential; or

act as if we were some theoretical GM with the chance to pick prospects for our team, with the obvious criteria being: How likely is this guy to help our major league club?

I always assume I am playing the second role.

That brings me to Sampson. What Sampson has done is truly remarkable. He started from ground zero as a pitcher, progressed through the minors at an adequate, if not accelerated rate, and excelled. If one isn't confused by his age, and instead focuses on the fact of how far he has come in four years, I don't see how he can be a C+. The guy cruises through the minors, posting great ERAs, goes to the majors, produces in limited time, demonstrating poise and the ability to command his pitches, and all he can muster is a C+. That's a joke.

There are so many guys that have stuff, yet never demonstrate any command of it in their rise through the minors, are touted at sites like this for their potential, and predictably don't succeed in the majors, despite their stuff. Yet guys without great stuff, but have command and produce great results throughout their rise, are largely ignored. Pitching is about way more than stuff.

Back to the GM viewpoint. If I were a GM and could look at other franchises and pay for guys like Sampson based on some theoretical C+ value, versus paying the same price for low-probability guys like Bogusevic, or higher prices for lower-likelihood guys like Gutierrez or Barthmaier, I think I could thrive. IMO, it is a clear market inconsistency ready to be exploited.

Bottom line, the focus should be on "the likelihood they will produce in the majors," not some diffuse ranking of their potential.

by jbm on Dec 18, 2025 10:12 AM EST up reply actions

Barthmaier....

I just thought of a comparison to AJ Burnett with slightly less fastball.

Sounds like a decent comp?

He's one of my favorite sleeper prospects.

by SenorGato88 on Dec 16, 2025 2:26 PM EST reply actions

I'm a little disappointed ...

not to see Johnny Ash mentioned. He may not be the next Joe Morgan, but he is a career .320 hitter.

by StickRat on Dec 16, 2025 2:29 PM EST reply actions

"nothing not to like"

agree that at the plate, Pence just hits. in the field it seems that his stock is up as a potential CFer which, not coincidentally, is where the 'stros will have an opening post-Taveras trade. is it defense to which John is referring when he said "nothing not to like"?

so i guess the question is: last year, aside from worries about his 'spastic' swing, there was a flat-out assumption that Pence was a corner OFer. now Purpura has mentioend him as the 'stros CFer of the future, BA has quoted scouts praising his defensive improvement and, perhaps, most importantly, there's a CF slot potentially open in the majors.

i'm guessing that, at a minimum, Pence will be given the opportunity to play CF, and the chiips will fall from there. I imagine Burke will start the year in CF, waiting for Biggio to get injured and/or retire. At some point there'll be an injury that will allow Burke to shift to a corner OF or 2B position, and Pence will get the call. I don't see him starting the year at CF, no matter what Purpura said. I supposed it's possible, though

by scooter on Dec 16, 2025 3:28 PM EST reply actions

question marks

i notice Iorg went from a B last year to a C this year.
what did he show that now barely puts him on the prospect chart?

and Koby Clemes went from C+ to not even mentioned.

are these 2 guys just not really looking like they have much to offer in the future?

also curious about Einertson

by bkmhoxx on Dec 16, 2025 4:45 PM EST reply actions

Re: question marks

Iorg had a terrible beginning to his '06 season. Given his age, he was expected to put up similar numbers as '05 while making it to at least high-A. However, he struggled out of the gate and as a result he finished with a low average for the season.

If you look at his splits, though, you can see the improvement. He was asked to make adjustments by the organization and he did. His OPS jumped from a first-half figure of .695 (which was boosted by an .837 June) to .802 after the break.

If you look at his raw numbers (not averages), they aren't bad (15/85 with 42 SB). You would like him to improve his BB/K ratio, but to his credit, he did improve in both categories (though he still has a ways to go).

It's too early to write him off and A-ball is about making adjustments. I don't think the rating is unfair, but the '07 season should give a better indication of his potential/career path.

On Clemens, I think he should at least receive a mention. Instead of playing him at short-season again to face players closer to his age, the team challenged him with a promotion to low-A. There he was facing older competition as a 19 year-old.

He suffered a broken finger in May, causing him to miss 6 weeks. He had trouble getting back on track after that. He put up low numbers, though he posted a respectable BB/K ratio of ~2:1 (not good, but okay considering his age).

He started off well in the Hawaiian League before becoming overwhelmed by the competition. You gotta remember that he was a 19 year-old facing AA -level competition. He's never been considered a Young or Upton-esque prospect, but I don't think it's crazy to think that he'll make adjustments and put up better numbers as he matures and faces competition his age.

It will be interesting to see what the club does with Einertson. People who follow MiLB remember his '04 season. But, he followed that with a horrible '05 season (on and off the field). His '06 season wasn't impressive, either.

He did make some strides, but also regressed in some areas. Some of that may be having to make more adjustments based on the adjustments he made. For example, he cut down on his K's, but had fewer walks. He swung for contact and increased his power numbers, but drew fewer walks and posted a low average.

With the new CBA, the club may start him at low-A again and hope that he'll play his way to high-A. Under the old agreement, they may have felt pressured to start him at high-A to make a final judgment before having to put him on the 40-man at the end of '07. But, with the extra year of service time, the club could let him progress a little more slowly and hope he reaches AA by the end of '08.

by astrosfan76 on Dec 19, 2025 9:55 AM EST up reply actions

Hirsh

Since Hirsh was traded between when the Astros and Rockies top 20's were, I wonder what Hirsh's grade would have been - A- or B+?

by Brickhaus on Dec 16, 2025 5:05 PM EST reply actions

I'd say

B- to B+ IMO

by goalieguy on Dec 16, 2025 6:33 PM EST up reply actions

It would be kind of hard

to have Hirsh as a B or B- and still be second on the Astros list like John said he would have.

by AucklandGM on Dec 16, 2025 8:05 PM EST up reply actions

A-

I'd give Hirsh and A- based on the fact that I feel he's well better than Barthmaier and Albers. It might make sense for Hirsh to be a B+ and to bump those 2 down to B's.

by drob320 on Dec 16, 2025 8:27 PM EST up reply actions