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Crystal Ball: Matt Cain

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Crystal Ball Review: Matt Cain (posted September 8, 2005)

2006 CB Projection
17 games, 74 innings, 4-7 record, 58/43 K/BB, 5.47 ERA.

2006 Actual
32 games, 191 innings, 13-12 record, 179/87 K/BB, 4.15 ERA

2006 CB Normalized for Actual Pitching Time
32 games, 191 innings, 8-13 record, 150/111 K/BB, 5.47 ERA

2006 Actual BEFORE THE ALL-STAR BREAK
17 games, 91 innings, 6-6, 80/47 K/BB, 5.12 ERA.

COMMENTARY
Another miss. Cain's control was better than I expected, and I also felt he'd spend half the year in the minors. Note that this CB was one of the earliest ones, done more than a year ago. If I had done this one in spring training it would have been closer, although still not good enough to be a real hit since I did anticipate some pretty serious command problems for him at times. Note that his first half performance was closer to my projection. But overall this is a definite miss, again on the "not good enough" type 2 level.