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Projection Check: Brad Wilkerson

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Brad Wilkerson Projection Comparisons

Community Projection: .269/.385/.504, 29 HR, OPS .889
Baseball Forecaster: .262/.374/.505, 31 HR, OPS .879
Bill James Handbook: .263/.378/.492, 27 HR, OPS .870
Baseball Prospectus: .254/.362/.462, 22 HR, OPS .824
ZIPS BTT Projection: .263/.380/.457, 23 HR, OPS .837
John Sickels JSPS-2: .258/.373/.488, 29 HR, OPS .861

REALITY through 9/9 .254/.354/.422, 11 HR, OPS .776

As you can see, all projections were too optimistic. Everyone was fairly close in batting average, which BP nailed directly, but Wilkerson's OBP and particularly his power have been less than anticipated. This is NOT caused by the switch in home parks: he's hitting .239/.363/.403 on the road, .266/.333/.438 at home.

Poll question about Wilkerson in the comments section.