Community Projection for Justin Morneau
Minor League Ball Community Proj: BA: .279 OBP: .353 SLG: .521
Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Projt: BA: .282 OBP: .351 SLG: .513
Bill James Handbook 05Projection: BA: .280 OBP: .344 SLG: .534
Baseball Forecaster 05Projection: BA: .269 OBP: .329 SLG: .496
ZIPS Baseball Think Tank Project: BA: .275 OBP: .344 SLG: .539
John Sickels Experimental Projec: BA: .275 OBP: .340 SLG: .497
The community believes that Morneau will spend an average of "12 days" on the Disabled List. The minimum stay is 15, so let's just say that we project Morneau playing 148-150 games.
As you can see, the community projection is right in line with what other systems are showing. We're a little more optimistic about Morneau's OBP than other projections, but the batting average and SLG are right in line.
My own Experimental Projection is a bit less optimistic, as I expect Morneau's big breakout will be in 2006.