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Young Pitcher Symposium: Brandon Webb

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AP photo

Brandon Webb

  1. Hal White (977)
  2. Elmer Knetzer (972)
  3. Ken Forsch (972)
  4. Cy Falkenberg (970)
  5. Joe Engel (969)
  6. Rickey Clark (968)
  7. Dennis Blair (968)
  8. Wayne Twitchell (966)
  9. Phil Douglas (966)
  10. Walt Woods (966)
Other Comparables
Doc Ellis
Mark Gubicza
Dick Ruthven
Dean Chance
Matt Clement
Jose Rijo
Jack Morris

2001 Minor League Scouting Notebook, rated Grade C+ coming out of college, with the notation that he could end up being "a very astute pick" in the eighth round.

2002 Minor League Scouting Notebook, rated Grade C, pointed out as a possible sleeper due to strong K/BB ratio in the California League, though his other numbers were less impressive. In retrospect, I'm not sure why I dropped him from Grade C+ in `01 to Grade C in '02. Looking at the numbers he should have remained a Grade C+ or even bumped up to B-.

2003 Baseball Prospect Book, rated Grade B. I still had him pegged as a sleeper, but projected him as a number 3 type starter.

The comp list for Webb is even weirder than most. The Sim Score list is not impressive at all, but the "other comparables" (based on PECOTA) is much stronger.

Webb's numbers declined significantly last year, with deterioration in K/BB and K/IP. The increase in his ERA (from 2.64 in 2003 to 3.59 in 2004) actually understates his decline. His component ratios should have resulted in an ERA somewhere around 4.35-4.40.

I'm going to work up a summary for the young pitchers we have examined over the last week and a half.