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Greinke Projection

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ZACK GREINKE COMMUNITY PROJECTION

Community: 29 GS, 10-11 W-L, 4.04 ERA, 179 IP, 132/41 K/BB, 24 HR
Forecaster: -- GS, 12-13 W-L, 4.03 ERA, 203 IP, 135/41 K/BB, -- HR
Prospectus: 24 GS, ---------, 4.24 ERA, 153 IP, 117/36 K/BB, 26 HR
ZIPS BTT: 27 GS, 9-11 W-L, 4.50 ERA, 156 IP, 109/29 K/BB, 24 HR
Sickels WAG: 30 GS, 10-12 W-L, 4.01 ERA, 181 IP, 123/49 K/BB, 30 HR

The "Sickels WAG" is my guestimate (NOT based on a formal projection system), made before consulting other sources or looking at the projection thread itself. My WAG, the Community Projection, and the Baseball Forecaster projection are all very close. Prospectus is somewhat more pessimistic, and ZIPS is much more pessimistic, notably projecting a sharp deterioration in Greinke's H/IP rate and a concordant rise in his ERA.

I personally feel that the concern about Greinke's strikeout rate is rather overblown. I'm more concerned with the home runs, but I do think that will get better in time. I fully admit that I may not be completely objective in this case: I saw him pitch his last game in the minor leagues, and it made a huge impression on me. I've never, EVER seen a 20-year-old pitcher command a minor league game the way he did that day, as a PITCHER, not as a thrower. He was treating the hitters like they were lab rats.